Wissenschaftsethik und Technikfolgenbeurteilung Band22 Schriftenreihe der Europaischen Akademie zur Erforschung von Folgen wissenschaftlich-technischer Entwicklungen Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler GmbH herausgegeben von Carl Friedrich Gethmann M. Decker · M. Ladikas (e ds) Bridges between Science, Society and Policy Technology Assessment - Methods and Impacts ~Springer Editor oft he series Professor Dr. Dr. h.c. Carl Friedrich Gethmann Europllische Akademie GmbH WilhelmstraBe 56, 53474 Bad Neuenabr-Ahrweiler, Germany Edhors Dr. Michael Decker Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, lnstitut flJr Technik:folgenabschlitzung und Systemanalyse (Institute for Technology Assessment and System Analysis) P.O. box 36 40, 76021 Karlsruhe, Germany Dr. Miltos Ladikas Europllische Akademie GmbH WilhehnstraBe 56, 53474 Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler, Germany Etflflng Susanne Stephan Europllische Akademie GmbH WilhelmstraBe 56, 53474 Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler, Germany Friederike Wtltscher Europllische Akademie GmbH WilhehnstraBe 56,53474 Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler, Germany ISBN 978-3-642-05960-5 ISBN 978-3-662-06171-8 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-662-06171-8 Bibliographic information published by Die Deutsche Bibliothek Die Deutsche Bibliohek lists Ibis publication in the Deutsche Natiooalb!bliografie; detailed lnbliograpbic data is availa ble in the Internet at <http://dllb.ddb.de>. This work is subject to copyright. 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Typeselting: K6lleo Druck+ Verlag GmbH, Bono+ Berlin Coverdesign: deblik, Berlin Printed oo acid-free paper 62/3020bu - S 4 3 2 I 0 - Europaische Akademie zur Erforschung von Folgen wissenschaftlich-technischer Entwicklungen Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler GmbH The Euro~ische Akademie The Europiiische Akademie zur Erforschung von Folgen wissenschaftlich technischer Entwicklungen GmbH is concerned with the scientific study of conse quences of scientific and technological advance for the individual and social life and for the natural environment. The Europ~ische Akademie intends to contribute to a rational way of society of dealing with the consequences of scientific and technological developments. This aim is mainly realised in the development of recommendations for options to act, from the point of view of long-term societal acceptance. The work of the Europiiische Akademie mostly takes place in tempor ary interdisciplinary project groups, whose members are recognised scientists from European universities. Overarching issues, e. g. from the fields of Technology Assessment or Ethic of Science, are dealt with by the staff of the Europ~ische Akademie. The Series The series "Wissenschaftsethik und Technikfolgenbeurteilung" (Ethics of Science and Technology Assessment) serves to publish the results of the work of the Euro p~ische Akademie. It is published by the academy's director. Besides the final results of the project groups the series includes volumes on general questions of ethics of science and technology assessment as well as other monographic studies. Acknowledgement The project TAMI (Technology Assessment in Europe; between Method and Im pact) has been funded by the European Commission, DO-Research, within the programme "Improving the Human Potential; Strategic Analysis of Specific Politi cal Issues". We would like to thank the policy makers (both national and Europe an) that took part in various TAMI discussions, particularly Ms Eryl McNally, Mr Gerhard Schmid, Mr Josef Bugl, Mr Otto Bode, Mr Leo Bjoemskov, Mr Paul Berckmans and Mr Anders Moller. We would also like to thank our scientific officer, Mr Belmiro Martins, for his support in this activity. The project TAMI comprised the following European institutes: Europaische Akademie GmbH (EA), Germany ~ Miltos Ladikas, Susanne Stephan (s usanne.stephan@dlr .de) il Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology (POST), UK David Cope ([email protected]) Institute for Technology Assessment and System Analysis (ITAS), Germany Armin Grunwald ([email protected]) Centre for Technology Assessment at the Swiss Science and Technology Council (TA-SWISS), Switzerland Sergio Bellucci, Danielle Biitschi ([email protected]) Center of Technology Assessment in a•n•Of Baden-Wiirttemberg (CTA), Germany nOI•O..I)$Y A$$l$SMIIIT "' f.AO(M.wQmuuoG Rainer Carius ([email protected]) Danish Board of Technology (DBT), Denmark S0ren Gram, Lars Kluver ([email protected]) Office of Technology Assessment at the German Parliament (TAB), Germany Leonhard Hennen ([email protected]) Committee on Industry, External Trade, Research and Energy, European Parliament (EP), Belgium Theodoros Karapiperis ( [email protected]) Organization VII Centre of Science, Technology, Society Studies at the Institute of Philosophy, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic (STS Centre), Czech Republic Petr Machleidt ([email protected]) Warsaw School of Economics - Institute of Modern Civilisation (SGH), Poland Tomasz Szapiro (t szapiro@sgh. waw. pl) Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC) Laura Cruz-Castro, Luis Sanz-Menendez (Laura. [email protected]) Rathenau Institute, The Netherlands A Jan Staman, Rinie van Est ([email protected]) Rathenau (IIISIII"~ Flemish Institute for Science and Technology Assessment (viWTA), Belgium Robby Berloznik, Stef Steyaert (v iWTA@vlaamsparlement. be) For more information, please contact the project manager: Europaische Akademie GmbH Susanne Stephan Phone: +49/2641 973 323 Fax: +49/2641 973 320 Email: susanne.stephan@dlr .de Wilhelmstr. 56 53474 Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler Germany Foreword The Europaische Akademie zur Erforschung von Folgen wissenschaftlich-techni scher Entwicklungen Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler GmbH (european academy) is con cerned with the scientific study of the consequences of scientific and technological advance for the individual and social life and for the natural environment. The main focus is to examine foreseeable mid- and long-term processes that are especially influenced by natural- and engineering sciences and the medical disciplines. The academy fulfills this task by organizing interdisciplinary expert discussions. Another important issue of the work of the Europaische Akademie concerns the methodology of Technology Assessment as a general issue. This is the main reason that the european academy organized during the past two years a project funded by the European Commission on Technology Assessment. Methods and Impact (TAMI). Together with partners from all over Europe a common understanding of what Tech nology Assessment (TA) is supposed to do was developed. Most importantly it was acknowledged that the core of any TA activity has to be a sound scientific under standing of the relevant phenomena. Communication then is of cordial importance to reach the relevant decision makers as well as the general public. It is true that this phase of the TA process has been treated with too little attention for many years. The communication processes between scientific advisers and policy makers have hence to be further scrutinized. The book series on ethics of science and technology assessment, "Wissenschafts ethik und Technikfolgenbeurteilung", edited by the Europaische Akademie, gives the opportunity to publish the results of the TAMI project as a contribution to the ongoing debate on the methodology in European Technology Assessment. Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler, January 2004 Carl Friedrich Gethmann Preface Today, technological impact assessment is more necessary than ever before. Tech nologicalleaps are now no longer measured in centuries, but in decades. Assess ing such developments is becoming ever more complicated and, for political authorities, ever more difficult. There is no doubt that science and technology have become more intrusive and more a part of our daily lives and no-one is unaware of the power that discoveries in science have to radically alter our lives and our relationship with our environment. Information technology, biotechnol ogy and genetic engineering are cases in point; but technological developments in agriculture, the energy sector and transport, for example, are also becoming increasingly complex. Politicians are called upon increasingly to make decisions on matters of consid erable technological complexity, and more and more on matters which involve very difficult ethical and environmental considerations. When the political com munity takes a decision to accept and encourage a technology, this is often not a decision which can be reversed at short notice. If Members of Parliament are to be able to take decisions on these matters in a fully informed and meaningful way, they need access not only to information, but to information which is presented in a way that can be understood by the non-expert and in a way which allows the con sideration of various political options in the light of the possible consequences of those options. Technological impact assessment requires long-term comprehensive investiga tion, which cannot be carried out either by a documentation centre or by research support units of a parliament. Technology Assessment performs a different role in a parliamentary context than do the standard parliamentary research services - many parliaments in Europe and elsewhere recognise this by having a separate Technolog ical Impact Assessment Unit of some kind. Many people, including politicians, do not understand this difference in role and it is part of our duty to make the differ ence clear between the simple provision of information - which is certainly not a role to be denigrated or downgraded - and the assessment of scientific and techno logical advances, which goes a step further. As the power of science transforms our lives in ways which humanity never before imagined, we the politicians together with the scientists carry increasingly heavy responsibility for guiding and illuminating the way in which our society develops and grows. The objective ofTAMI to create and promote a structured dia logue, an interaction and information sharing within the Technology Assessment community on a more international level, is the only possible way to meet the future needs. I salute the successful completion of the project and I look forward to dis seminating these results in the policymaking community of Europe. TAMI has been XII another step in the improvement of policy advice and therefore, better science pol icy in Europe. Brussels, November 2003 Gerhard Schmid, Vice-President European Parliament Table of Contents Technology Assessment in Europe; between Method and Impact- The TAMI Project . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Part 1: Main Results.......................................... 12 1. The Practice ofTechnology Assessment; Science, Interaction, and Communication . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 1.1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 1.2 TA definition. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 1.3 From method to impact: a complex relationship....... . . 16 1.4 Institutional setting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 1.4.1 Types of institutional settings. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 1.4.2 Addressees or target groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 1.4.3 Types of expertise on issues and methods . . . . . . 19 1.5 Situation appreciation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 1.5.1 Issue dimension . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 1.5.2 Political dimension. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 1.5.3 Social dimension . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 1.5.4 Innovation dimension. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 1.5.5 Availability of knowledge.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 1.6 Defining the goals of a TA-project . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 1.7 The project design.... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 1. 7.1 The "method toolbox": three classes ofTA methods 29 1.7.2 Selection of theTA-methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 1.7.3 Quality criteria.... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 1.8 Project implementation..... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 1.9 Summary and conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 1. 9.1 Functions of methods for reaching TA goals . . . . 48 1.9.2 The method toolbox....................... 49 1.9.3 How to select the appropriate TA method . . . . . . 50 1.9.4 Quality criteria.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 1.9.5 Recommendations concerning the relationship between method and impact. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 2. Towards a Framework for Assessing the Impact of Technology Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 2.1 Introduction.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57