Studies in Computational Intelligence 809 Vladik Kreinovich Nguyen Ngoc Thach Nguyen Duc Trung Dang Van Thanh Editors Beyond Traditional Probabilistic Methods in Economics Studies in Computational Intelligence Volume 809 Series editor Janusz Kacprzyk, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland e-mail: [email protected] The series “Studies in Computational Intelligence” (SCI) publishes new develop- mentsandadvancesinthevariousareasofcomputationalintelligence—quicklyand with a high quality. The intent is to cover the theory, applications, and design methods of computational intelligence, as embedded in the fields of engineering, computer science, physics and life sciences, as well as the methodologies behind them. The series contains monographs, lecture notes and edited volumes in computational intelligence spanning the areas of neural networks, connectionist systems, genetic algorithms, evolutionary computation, artificial intelligence, cellular automata, self-organizing systems, soft computing, fuzzy systems, and hybrid intelligent systems. Of particular value to both the contributors and the readership are the short publication timeframe and the world-wide distribution, which enable both wide and rapid dissemination of research output. More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/7092 Vladik Kreinovich Nguyen Ngoc Thach (cid:129) Nguyen Duc Trung Dang Van Thanh (cid:129) Editors Beyond Traditional Probabilistic Methods in Economics 123 Editors VladikKreinovich Nguyen DucTrung Department ofComputer Science BankingUniversity HCMC University of Texas atElPaso HoChiMinh City,Vietnam ElPaso, TX,USA Dang VanThanh Nguyen NgocThach TTCGroup BankingUniversity HCMC HoChiMinh City,Vietnam HoChiMinh City,Vietnam ISSN 1860-949X ISSN 1860-9503 (electronic) Studies in Computational Intelligence ISBN978-3-030-04199-1 ISBN978-3-030-04200-4 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-04200-4 LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2018960912 ©SpringerNatureSwitzerlandAG2019 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpart of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission orinformationstorageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilar methodologynowknownorhereafterdeveloped. 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ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbytheregisteredcompanySpringerNatureSwitzerlandAG Theregisteredcompanyaddressis:Gewerbestrasse11,6330Cham,Switzerland Preface Economicsisaveryimportantand,atthesame,averydifficultdiscipline.Itisvery difficult to predict how an economy will evolve, and it is very difficult to find out which measures we should undertake to make economy prosper. One of the main reasonsforthisdifficultyisthatineconomics,thereisalotofuncertainty:Different difficult-to-predict events can influence the future economic behavior. To make good predictions, to make reasonable recommendations, we need to take this uncertainty into account. In the past, most related research results were based on using traditional tech- niquesfromprobabilityandstatistics,suchasp-value-basedhypothesistestingand the use of normal distributions. These techniques led to many successful applica- tions, but in the last decades, many examples emerged showing the limitations of these traditional techniques: Often, these techniques lead to non-reproducible resultsandtounreliableandinaccuratepredictions.Itisthereforenecessarytocome up with new techniques for processing the corresponding uncertainty, techniques that go beyond the traditional probabilistic techniques. Suchtechniquesandtheireconomicapplicationsarethemainfocusofthisbook. Thisbookcontainsbothrelatedtheoreticaldevelopmentsandpracticalapplications to various economic problems. The corresponding techniques range from more traditionalmethods—suchasmethodsbasedonBayesianapproach—toinnovative methods utilizing ideas and techniques from quantum physics. Aspecial section is devoted to fixed point techniques—mathematical techniques corresponding to the important economic notions of stability and equilibrium. And, of course, there are still many remaining challenges and many open problems. We hope that this volume will help practitioners to learn how to apply various uncertainty techniques to economic problems, and help researchers to further improve the existing techniques and to come up with new techniques for dealing with uncertainty in economics. We want to thank all the authors for their contributions and all anonymous referees for their thorough analysis and helpful comments. v vi Preface The publication of this volume is partly supported by the Banking University of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Our thanks to the leadership and staff of the Banking University, for providing crucial support. Our special thanks to Prof. Hung T. Nguyen for his valuable advice and constant support. We would also like to thank Prof. Janusz Kacprzyk (Series Editor) and Dr. Thomas Ditzinger (Senior Editor, Engineering/Applied Sciences) for their support and cooperation in this publication. January 2019 Vladik Kreinovich Nguyen Duc Trung Nguyen Ngoc Thach Dang Van Thanh Contents General Theory Beyond Traditional Probabilistic Methods in Econometrics. . . . . . . . . . 3 Hung T. Nguyen, Nguyen Duc Trung, and Nguyen Ngoc Thach Everything Wrong with P-Values Under One Roof . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 William M. Briggs Mean-Field-Type Games for Blockchain-Based Distributed Power Networks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Boualem Djehiche, Julian Barreiro-Gomez, and Hamidou Tembine Finance and the Quantum Mechanical Formalism. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 Emmanuel Haven Quantum-Like Model of Subjective Expected Utility: A Survey of Applications to Finance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 Polina Khrennikova Agent-Based Artificial Financial Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 Akira Namatame A Closer Look at the Modeling of Economics Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 Hung T. Nguyen and Nguyen Ngoc Thach What to Do Instead of Null Hypothesis Significance Testing or Confidence Intervals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 David Trafimow Why Hammerstein-Type Block Models Are so Efficient: Case Study of Financial Econometrics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129 Thongchai Dumrongpokaphan, Afshin Gholamy, Vladik Kreinovich, and Hoang Phuong Nguyen vii viii Contents Why Threshold Models: A Theoretical Explanation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137 Thongchai Dumrongpokaphan, Vladik Kreinovich, and Songsak Sriboonchitta The Inference on the Location Parameters Under Multivariate Skew Normal Settings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146 Ziwei Ma, Ying-Ju Chen, Tonghui Wang, and Wuzhen Peng Blockchains Beyond Bitcoin: Towards Optimal Level of Decentralization in Storing Financial Data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163 Thach Ngoc Nguyen, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich, and Hoang Phuong Nguyen Why Quantum (Wave Probability) Models Are a Good Description of Many Non-quantum Complex Systems, and How to Go Beyond Quantum Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168 Miroslav Svítek, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich, and Thach Ngoc Nguyen Decision Making Under Interval Uncertainty: Beyond Hurwicz Pessimism-Optimism Criterion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176 Tran Anh Tuan, Vladik Kreinovich, and Thach Ngoc Nguyen Comparisons on Measures of Asymmetric Associations . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185 Xiaonan Zhu, Tonghui Wang, Xiaoting Zhang, and Liang Wang Fixed-Point Theory Proximal Point Method Involving Hybrid Iteration for Solving Convex Minimization Problem and Common Fixed Point Problem in Non-positive Curvature Metric Spaces. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201 Plern Saipara, Kamonrat Sombut, and Nuttapol Pakkaranang New Ciric Type Rational Fuzzy F-Contraction for Common Fixed Points . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215 Aqeel Shahzad, Abdullah Shoaib, Konrawut Khammahawong, and Poom Kumam CommonFixedPointTheoremsforWeaklyGeneralizedContractions and Applications on G-metric Spaces. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230 Pasakorn Yordsorn, Phumin Sumalai, Piyachat Borisut, Poom Kumam, and Yeol Je Cho A Note on Some Recent Strong Convergence Theorems of Iterative Schemes for Semigroups with Certain Conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251 Phumin Sumalai, Ehsan Pourhadi, Khanitin Muangchoo-in, and Poom Kumam Contents ix Fixed Point Theorems of Contractive Mappings in A-cone Metric Spaces over Banach Algebras. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 262 Isa Yildirim, Wudthichai Onsod, and Poom Kumam Applications The Relationship Among Education Service Quality, University Reputation and Behavioral Intention in Vietnam . . . . . . . . . 273 Bui Huy Khoi, Dang Ngoc Dai, Nguyen Huu Lam, and Nguyen Van Chuong Impact of Leverage on Firm Investment: Evidence from GMM Approach. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 282 Duong Quynh Nga, Pham Minh Dien, Nguyen Tran Cam Linh, and Nguyen Thi Hong Tuoi Oligopoly Model and Its Applications in International Trade . . . . . . . . 296 Luu Xuan Khoi, Nguyen Duc Trung, and Luu Xuan Van Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Nexus in Vietnam: An ARDL Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 311 Bui Hoang Ngoc The Impact of Anchor Exchange Rate Mechanism in USD for Vietnam Macroeconomic Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 323 Le Phan Thi Dieu Thao, Le Thi Thuy Hang, and Nguyen Xuan Dung The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Structural Economic in Vietnam. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 352 Bui Hoang Ngoc and Dang Bac Hai A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) Analysis on the Determinants of Vietnam’s Stock Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 363 Le Hoang Phong, Dang Thi Bach Van, and Ho Hoang Gia Bao Explaining and Anticipating Customer Attitude Towards Brand Communication and Customer Loyalty: An Empirical Study in Vietnam’s ATM Banking Service Context . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 377 Dung Phuong Hoang Measuring Misalignment Between East Asian and the United States Through Purchasing Power Parity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 402 Cuong K. Q. Tran, An H. Pham, and Loan K. T. Vo Determinants of Net Interest Margins in Vietnam Banking Industry. . . 417 An H. Pham, Cuong K. Q. Tran, and Loan K. T. Vo Economic Integration and Environmental Pollution Nexus in Asean: A PMG Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 427 Pham Ngoc Thanh, Nguyen Duy Phuong, and Bui Hoang Ngoc