PERGAMON INTERNATIONAL LIBRARY of Science, Technology, Engineering and Social Studies The 1000-volume original paperback library in aid of education, industrial training and the enjoyment of leisure Publisher: Robert Maxwell, M.C. Beyond the Age of Waste A Report to the Club of Rome Second Edition THE PERGAMON TEXTBOOK INSPECTION COPY SERVICE An inspection copy of any book published in the Pergamon International Library will gladly be sent to academic staff without obligation for their consideration for course adoption or recommendation. Copies may be retained for a period of 60 days from receipt and returned if not suitable. When a particular title is adopted or recommended for adoption for class use and the recommendation results in a sale of 12 or more copies, the inspection copy may be retained with our compliments. The Publishers will be pleased to receive suggestions for revised editions and new titles to be published in this important International Library. Other Club of Rome Reports Published by Pergamon Press BOTKIN et al. No Limits to Learning De MONTBRIAL et ai Energy: The Countdown GIARINI & LOUBERGE The Diminishing Returns of Technology HAWRYLYSHYN Road Maps to the Future LASZLO & BIERMAN Goals in a Global Community PECCEI The Human Quality Beyond the Age of Waste A Report to the Club of Rome Second Edition D. Gabor* and U. Colombo with A. King and R. Galli *Nobel prize winner Physics PERGAMON PRESS OXFORD · NEW YORK · TORONTO · SYDNEY PARIS · FRANKFURT U.K. Pergamon Press Ltd., Headington Hill Hail, Oxford OX3 OBW, England U.S.A. Pergamon Press Inc., Maxwell House, Fairview Park, Elmsford, New York 10523, U.S.A. CANADA Pergamon Press Canada Ltd., Suite 104, 150 Consumers Rd., Willowdale, Ontario M2J 1P9, Canada AUSTRALIA Pergamon Press (Aust.) Pty. Ltd., P.O. Box 544, Potts Point, N.S.W. 2011, Australia FRANCE Pergamon Press SARL, 24 rue des Ecoles, 75240 Paris, Cedex 05, France FEDERAL REPUBLIC Pergamon Press GmbH, 6242 Kronberg-Taunus, OF GERMANY Hammerweg 6, Federal Republic of Germany Copyright © 1981 Pergamon Press Ltd. All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means: electronic, electrostatic, magnetic tape, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without permission in writing from the publishers First edition 1978 Second edition 1981 British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Gabor, Dennis Beyond the age of waste. - 2nd ed. - (Pergamon international library) 1. Conservation of natural resources I. Title II. Colombo, U III. Club of Rome 333.7*2 S936 80-41614 ISBN 0-08-027303-3 (Hardcover) ISBN 0-08-027304-1 (Flexicover) This is a translation of the book Oltre l'Età dello Spreco published by A. Mondadori Printed in Great Britain by A. Wheat on & Co. Ltd., Exeter Preface by Aurelio Peccei This book reports the results of a study which was initiated by the Club of Rome following the controversy which the publication of The Limits of Growth evoked. At the time of this first report to the Club, it was observed that it did not consider how far technological development might prevent, or at least delay, mankind's approach to the material limits, a point which some of the critics were not slow to seize upon. Technology, drawing from an ever-expanding scientific fund of knowledge has been a major force in shaping the world we live in, bringing enormous benefits and also, because of the lack of social and political guidance, many unwanted and even dangerous side effects. Surely then, science and technology, if wisely planned and oriented, could contribute greatly to improving the situation of mankind as a whole and help solve many aspects of that tangle of world problems we term the problématique, which is the centre of concern of The Club of Rome. I personally have always felt that in the present predicament we badly require more knowledge about man, his societies, the terrestrial environment and their interactions, as well as more wisdom in the use of our knowledge. Hence any suggestion that there should be a sort of moratorium on scientific research, besides being well-nigh impossible, seems to me to be necessarily self-defeating. We need more research, not less; the question, though, is what sort of research should be undertaken and in pursuit of what objectives? In the past too much of our research effort, the world over, has been sup- ported for its potential contribution to defence and economic growth or for the boost it gave to national prestige, while too little was destined to meeting real human needs of alleviating human problems. W^hat is worse, by very definition scientific knowledge was considered beneficial and its technological applications were equated with ν Preface by Aurelio Peccei ''progress'* even when large segments of the world's population were bewildered and confused by new concepts clashing with well-entrenched values, or were unable to understand and adapt to the modes of life brought about by such progress. The world problématique has become so intractable—and indeed not even the wisest among us can indicate how it should be successfully attacked—precisely because people around the world are incapable of living as contemporaries of their techno-scientific advance. In the future, therefore, man's exploration of the unknown and research on mankind's multiple crises should not only be reoriented, but a large part of it should systematically probe areas of ignorance relevant to the overall development of the individual human being. Only with better men and women can a better society be formed, capable of accommodating decently a few more billion humans, of absorbing and controlling further doses of advanced technology, and, at the same time, of keeping the planet in a reasonable state of health. In my view, there can be no resolution of the problématique and no substantial improvement of world situations if we rely essentially on technocratic or mechanistic methods. Too often in contemporary thinking it is implicitly assumed that when difficulties arise—such as an energy crisis, or soaring prices of raw materials, or shortages of food for starving multitudes—market forces will modify the economic factors, or events in general will lead to the development of new technologies to rectify the situation. Let alone the cost in human suffering any such automatic readjustments entail, the fallacy of these expectations can be seen by our very eyes practically every day. In particular, the long phase of gestation of new technology, as this book points out, makes it an uncertain basis for short-term policies, in times of rapid change such as the present. Indeed, the major problems now facing mankind must be approached in an essentially humanistic manner by minds trained in many disciplines and fed by a wide range of experiences, in addition to the strictly technological one. In the course of several Club of Rome discussions it has been emphasized frequently that it is highly improbable that the physical limits to man's existence will ever be reached, for in front of them stands a whole array of non-material barriers, by their nature political, economic, social, managerial, namely, essentially inherent in man's vi Preface by Aurelio Peccei as yet insufficiently developed capacity to govern the immense and complex artificial systems he has created on Earth in competition with the natural ones. In the present programme of the Club of Rome, therefore, an attempt is being made to try to elucidate other elements of the world problém- atique, in addition to the purely material ones. The second report to the Club of Rome, Mankind at the Turning Point, by Mihajlo Mesarovic and Eduard Pestel, for example, provides what may be considered as the beginnings of a technique to enable decision-makers to examine alternative strategies and policies and have some comprehension of their possible consequences, before settling on their lines of action. In this model it is possible to include political considerations and to incorporate value judgements. The approach is essentially constructive and is now being tested out by several governments as a possible means of reinforcing and improving the traditional methods of policy creation, at least on broad issues. In the RIO project—Reshaping the International Order—Jan Tinbergen and his colleagues are reviewing the existing world economic system and its functioning, with special regard to reducing the disparities between rich and poor nations in life conditions and opportunities. This project should contribute to a better understanding of many of the economic, political and institutional aspects of the world problématique. It puts forward many proposals for reform, some of which will necessarily be controversial. In a new study for the Club of Rome, Goals of Mankind, Ervin Laszlo is making a first attempt to penetrate into the core of the value systems of our societies and will endeavour to establish a group of objectives common to mankind as a whole and which could be accepted by the cultures, religions and ideologies that often appear so divergent and mutually hostile in their expressions. To find such common denominators, the search must go deep into the new ethical foundations, different from anything in the past, which can permit our proud species that has conquered the planet and is delving ever more deeply into the secrets of matter and life to rule wisely this small part of the universe which is its domain. In addition to the above projects, the Club of Rome is beginning to review the inadequacy of present institutions of world society, the vii Preface by A urelio Peccei functioning of its formal and informal power structures, the provision of capital required for the necessary global developments of the coming decades, as well as the educational needs of world populations, all in relation to a harmonious evolution of the entire human system, based on equity, equilibrium and quality. As part of this many-faceted attack on the world problématique, the place of science and technology has its particular importance. When we originally invited Dennis Gabor and Umberto Colombo to gather together a group of scholars and scientists—"technological optimists'', as we referred to them at the time—to identify how and where new research and development efforts should be mounted to tackle the problems of food, materials and energy, we were thinking too narrowly, in terms of the contribution of science and technology in overcoming the constraints on growth. I have been particularly interested and gratified, therefore, to see how, as the study evolved, its authors have become increasingly aware of the economic, social and political concomitants of scientific research and technological development. The title, Beyond the Age of Waste, appears to me to describe accurately the spirit of the book. Waste, as such, is mentioned indeed only occasionally, yet somehow it pervades the whole issue; but the waste concept epitomizes the whole problématique of science and technology for human betterment, with the tangled interconnections between food, agriculture, materials, energy and human motivation, which the text identifies. In any foreseeable well-managed society, research and development will have to be concerned with the optimal use of the biophysical resources of the planet, both renewable and non-renewable, of energy, financial resources and, above all, human resources. Not only does wasteful operation of the economy present a threat to future generations, but the actual waste of human resources, through unemployment, underemployment, disease, malnutrition and uncreative repetitive work which provides no satisfaction to the individual, is already tragic in the present context and could deteriorate still further with the great wave of new population which is pending. In the face of all this, science and technology still remain one of the great hopes for improving the human lot. It is for this reason that I have the greatest pleasure in recommending this book to a wide readership as giving some useful indications of where the opportunities viii Preface by Aurelio Peccei and needs lie and how they can be brought together through a multi- disciplinary approach. I want particularly to thank the authors of the book on behalf of The Club of Rome. Dennis Gabor took a deep interest and went to pains in shaping the direction of the study and in co-chairing with Umberto Colombo the brilliant group of experts who participated in it. Alexander King provided invaluable insights on many issues and a comprehensive view of the role of science and of science policy in our time. Riccardo Galli took up with Umberto Colombo the heavy burden of correlating disparate elements and writing the final text. My warmest appreciation also goes out to the many scientists who participated so creatively in the several meetings of the group or who gave their time for individual discussions and correspondence. Finally I wish to express the Club of Rome's warmest thanks to the Canadian Ministry of Science and Technology, whose generous contribution made the project possible. AURELIO PECCEI ix Preface In the debate following the publication of The Limits to Growth, one of the recurrent criticisms was that the model had neglected the effects of science and technology. It was argued that, if properly stimulated, these would help solve the problem of the scarcity of natural resources. Yet, some of the critical problems facing us today have become graver in spite of science and technology. Progress in technology and hygiene has prolonged human life, and accelerated world population growth to such an extent that it may well double within the next 30 or 40 years. Over half of today's world population has only the bare necessities of life, with many people living almost permanently on the verge of starvation. The problem of rectifying this situation is aggravated by the expected population growth and by the uneven distribution of natural resources throughout the world. This situation is shown clearly in the second report to the Club of Rome, Mankind at the Turning Point, where the need for a more harmonious "organic" growth is advocated, in place of the present-day uncontrolled growth. "Zero growth" has been proposed by some as an essential goal. This aim comes as a reaction to the sudden realization that we are living on a finite earth. However, zero growth cannot be considered as a viable target for the immediate future because of the nature of the existing economic system. Early in 1973, the Executive Committee of the Club of Rome asked a small group of Club members, whose activities lay in scientific and technological fields, to assess whether the natural resources of our planet, in terms of energy, materials and food, would be sufficient to sustain a growing population and to allow its basic needs to be satisfied in the coming centuries. The specific task assigned to our group was to identify areas in which progress of science and technology can increase mankind's capacity to exploit and regenerate natural resources in order to sustain a satisfactory standard of living for the people of the world. Our group immediately realized that its members did not cover the wide range of knowledge and competence needed for carrying out the xi