Beyond Afghanistan RESEARCH PAPERSAND POLICYSTUDIES 32 Beyond Afghanistan The Emerging U.S.-Pakistan Relations EDITED BY Leo E. Rose and Kamal Matinuddin instituteofeastASIANstudies UNIVERSITYOFCALIFORNIA• BERKELEY A publication of the Institute of East Asian Studies, University of California, Berkeley.AlthoughtheInstituteisresponsiblefortheselectionandacceptance of manuscripts in this series, responsibilityfor the opinions expressedand for the accuracyofstatementsrests withtheirauthors. The ResearchPapersand PolicyStudiesseriesisoneofseveralpublicationsseries sponsoredbytheInstituteofEastAsianStudiesinconjunctionwithitsconstituent units.TheothersincludetheChinaResearchMonographseries,theJapanResearch Monograph series, the Itorea Research Monograph series, and the Indochina ResearchMonographseries.Alistofrecentpublicationsappearsatthebackofthe book. Correspondencemaybesentto: Ms.JoanneSandstrom,Managing Editor InstituteofEastAsianStudies UniversityofCalifornia Berkeley,California 94720 Copyright©1989bythe Regentsofthe UniversityofCalifornia ISBN1-55729-017-2 LibraryofCongressCatalogCardNumber89—81688 PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica Allrightsreserved. Contents Preface vii In MemoryofPresidentMohammedZia-ui-Haq HerbertG.Hagerty ix Introduction: Themes andPerceptionsonthe BilateralRelationship AnitaM. Weiss 1 Part One Pakistan-U.S. SecurityRelations 1. BeyondAfghanistan: U.S.-PakistanSecurityRelations Rodney W.Jones 31 2. Pakistan'sSecurityImperatives andRelationswiththeUnitedStates IftikbarH. Malik 60 3. U.S.-PakistanSecurityRelations:Nuclear-RelatedIssues NazirKamal 94 PartIwo Pakistan-U.S.EcononiicRelations 4. Knowledge and Institutional Reform: Long-TermChallengesin the PakistaniEconomy EugeneStaples 119 5. Pakistan-U.S. EconomicRelations KUBeg 133 PartThree MutualPerceptions 6. AnAmerican Perspectiveon PakistaniPolitical Developments andTheirImpactonPakistan-U.S. Relations WilliamL Richter 145 vi Contents 7. MutualPerceptionsofPakistanandUS.Policies asTheyAjfifectBilateralRelations KamalMatinuddin 160 PartFour Pakistan-IndiaRelationsandSouthAsia 8. PakistanandSouthAsia:TheIndiaRelationship LeoE. RoseandRichardSisson 183 9. Hegemony,Bipolarity,or Multipolarity? Keyto aDurable PeaceinSouth Asia RafiqueAhmad 197 PartFive ProblemsofPeaceandSecurityinWestAsiaandtheGulf 10. ProblemsofPeaceandSecurityinWestAsia andthe Gulf Andrew1.Killgore 215 11. Pakistan'sVitalEnvironment:TheMiddleEasternRegion SyedFarooqHasnat 228 Part Six TheAfghanistanConflict 12. Afghanistanand U.S.-PakistanRelations: AnAmericanView TheodoreL Eliot,Jr. 255 13. Afghanistan Conflict and Prospectsfor the Future IjazS. Gilani 272 PartSeven TheUSSRFactor 14. TheSovietRole in SouthAsia:Potentialfor Change RobertG. Wirsing 283 15. Pakistan-AmericanRelationsinSovietPerspective: AnEvaluation SyedRifatHussain 302 Postscript WilliamL Richter 329 Contributors 335 Preface Aseriesofveryimportantdevelopmentsin the southernAsianregion in late 1987 and 1988 made a third U.S.-Pakistanbilateral forum appear necessary. InSouthwestAsiaan accordhad finallybeenreached in April 1988underwhichallSovietforcesweretobewithdrawnfromAfghanistan bymid-February 1989.Meanwhile a"ceasefire"in the seeminglyendless Iran-Iraq war was negotiated, easing what had been a critical but very complexissue inU.S.-Pakistanrelations. InSouthAsia,India'srelationship withPakistan, SriLanka,Nepal, and theMaldiveshad evolvedalongsome novel and, in the view of the smaller South Asian states, potentially dangerous lines;areconsiderationofthe respectivePakistaniandAmeri can views ofthe "proper" Indian role in the region seemed appropriate. The rather confusing series ofdevelopments in Pakistan's domestic politicsinthespringof1988andtheupcomingU.S.presidentialelectionin early November were also seen as having important consequences for both countries' foreign policies, including their interrelationship. While no one hadforeseen the death ofPresident Zia-ul-Haq in an air crash on August17,the subsequentintroductionofanewandmoreopenpolitical system inPakistanwas alsoasubjectofgreatinterestandconcerntoboth groups ofparticipants. Although this process ofpoliticalchange in Paki stanwas still underway in mid-October 1988 when the conferencewas heldinSanFrancisco,itdidprovidethegeneralframeworkformuchofthe discussiononall the topics. The organizers and sponsors of the forum were Lt.General (ret'd.) Kamal Matinuddin, director general of the Institute of Strategic Studies (ISS)in Islamabad;ProfessorRobertA.Scalapino,directoroftheInstitute of East Asian Studies; and Mr. Allen Choate, executive director of the Center for Asian Pacific Affairs (CAPA) ofThe Asia Foundation, which funded the conference and hosted it in the foundation's San Francisco headquarters. Mr. Harry H. Kendall of the lEAS served as conference coordinator. There were fourteen Pakistani and twenty-two American participants, including members of academic and research institutions, governmentandbusinessorganizations,and journalists. Theconferenceopenedwiththreebroad-rangingsessionsonPakistan- US.securityrelations (RodneyJones,IftikharH.Malik,andNazirKamal); viii Preface economic relations (H. U. Beg and EugeneStaples); and mutual percep tionsonthe impactofpoliticsand policieson bilateralrelations(William RichterandKamalMatinuddin).Thenexttwosessionsdealtwithdevelop mentsinSouthAsia(RafiqueAhmad, LeoE.Rose,andRichardSisson)and inWestAsia(AndrewI.Killgore andFarooqHasnat).Thefinaltwosessions focusedonthecriticaldevelopmentsinAfghanistan(TheodoreEliot and Ijaz S.Gilani) and on the Soviet factor in U.S.-Pakistanrelations (S. Rifat Hussain and Robert G. Wirsing). The papers and the discussions that followed clearly defined the areas and subjects of convergence and divergence in both countries' policies and interests in current Asian developments and the constructionofafirmrelationship basedonprag maticconsiderationsin the newworldthatisemerging. In Memory of President Mohammed Zia-ul-Haq HERBERT G. HAGERTY AttheopeningoftheThirdUnitedStates-PakistanBilateralForum theparticipantsobserveda momentofsilencein memoryofPresident Mohammed Zia-ul-Haq, U.S. AmbassadorArnold Raphel, and others who lost their livesin thefatalplanecrash ofAugust17,1988.Subse quentlyMr. Hagerty, a careerForeignService Officerwith manyyears' experience at theforefront of U.S. relations withSouthAsiamade the followingpersonal observations in conjunction with his discussanfs remarkson thefirst two chapters in this volume. I wish to commend Professors Iftikar Malik and Rodney Jones for their paperson thiscriticalaspectof Pakistan-U.S. relations. Theyprovidea comprehensiveandtimelyreviewofthe"pressurepoints"intherelation shipbetween Pakistan andthe United States. 1wishto associate myself especially with the views expressed by Rodney Jones—and not only becauseheisgenerousinquotingandcitingtheHagertyfamily. 1find also the momentofsilencewithwhichwe openedthis session especiallyappropriate,notjustfortheveryhumanlosswehaveallsuffered atBahawalpurbutalsoasaspecialreminderofthecriticalimportanceof thelatePresidenttothepresentPakistan-U.S.securityrelationship.Infact, itisimpossibletoreviewtheoverallrelationshipasithasevolvedbetween ourtwocountrieswithoutmakingitsoundlikeaeulogy to Zia-ul-Haq;so beit, if that iswhatmyremarks seem. Fornearlyadecade.GeneralZiadominatedallaspectsoftherelation ship. Like allsuccessful politiciansandgenerals, hewaslucky. Hisluck went beyond anunparalleledrecord of good monsoons.Hehadsuperb gambler'sinstinctsandmadethemostofhissituationbybeingwillingto gamble, but he could alsobe steadfastagainst the odds,in thefaceof threatsandpressures. RodneyJonesnotesthatZiagave"predictability"totherelationship,as important inrelationsbetweennationsasitisintiesbetween peoples.It X HERBERTG. HAGERTY wasespeciallycriticalduringthelastdecadeinhelpingbothsidestoavoid thepitfallsofthepastofwhich1wroteinthepaperIgaveatourmeetingin Islamabadin 1986. Hiswasasteadyhand.Hecouldbecountedontobesteadfastonthe Afghanistan question, almost as the ultimate advocate of the "forward school"of nineteenth-century Britishstrategicthinking. Heunderstood that the security of Pakistan—indeed, of South Asia as a whole—rests heavilyonensuringthatKabulisruledbyafree, andifpossiblefriendly, government. For Pakistan, of course, the problem of Afghanistan began morethantwodecadesbeforetheSovietinvasionof1979andhasaspects that go back before Partition. Zia understood well that helping the courageous Afghan Mujahideen to stand tall against the Sovietinvaders wouldbe butafirststeptowardsolving the problem. Hewassteadfastinhiseconomicpolicies,which—inthe handsofthe same GhulamIshaq Khan nowactingashissuccessor—madethe mostof Pakistan'sscarce resources, mobilized supportfrom abroad, avoided the capaciousnessof theZuMkarBhuttoyears,andprovidedanunparalleled periodofdomesticgrowthand stability. He was steadfast also in the search for the right combination that would have enabled him to restore representative governmentwithout settingthestageforyetonemorecycleofpoliticalchaosrequiringarmy intervention.Inthis,hewaslikeamanonthebackofatiger.Toagroupof American visitorsheonce candidlyobserved—^with adisarming grin— thatitwas"ahellofaloteasiertoseizepowerthantogiveitback."Hewas profoundly suspicious of political parties,whichlikeourownfounding fathers, he mistookfor the occasionof faction, not itsconsequenceor brokeringmechanism.Ifhewasnotquiteclearonwhathewanted,hewas certainofwhathewishedto avoid, andhekepttryingto find theright formula for Pakistan,undaunted byrebuffs andfalsestarts. An important aspect of this effort was the successful local bodies electionshe held, on a nonpartybasis,for the town and districtcouncils thatweretobecomeforsomeatraininggroundforthenewpolitics.Inthe late 1970s, he spokeapprovingly of the "Turkish model" for restoring representativeinstitutionswhilepreservingaroleforthearmy.Inhisdays asacorpscommander,he institutedlecturesonIslamforhisofficers,and he drew on his Islamic commitmentto evokethe virtuesand uniting powerofIslaminsupportofwhathecalled"Islamicdemocracy,"avague conceptthatappearedtobeablendofWesternparliamentarypracticeand boththe egalitarianand the authoritarianvaluesofIslam. Hewaspersistent. Hemoved gradually throughabriefcoalitionwith the Pakistan National Alliance (PNA), giving new life to the Pakistan