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Basic Methods of Policy Analysis and Planning PDF

481 Pages·2012·6.402 MB·English
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Basic Methods of Policy Analysis and Planning Third Edition Patton CARLV. Georgia State University Sawicki DAVID S. Georgia Institute of Technology Clark JENNIFER J. Georgia Institute of Technology RO Routledge U T LE DG Taylor & Francis Group E LONDON AND NEW YORK First published 2013, 1993, 1986 by Pearson Education, Inc. Published 2016 by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN 711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017, USA Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business Copyright ©201 2, 2009, 2006, 2003 Taylo r& Franci s.A llright sreserved . All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. Credits and acknowledgments borrowed from other sources and reproduced, with permission, in this textbook appear on the appropriate page within text. ISBN: 9780137495092 (pbk) Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Patton, Carl V. Basic methods of policy analysis and planning / Carl V. Patton, David S. Sawicki, Jennifer J. Clark.—3rd ed. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN-13: 978-0-13-749509-2 (alk. paper) ISBN-10: 0-13-749509-9 (alk. paper) 1. Policy sciences--Research. 2. Public administration. 3. Political planning. 4. City planning. I. Sawicki, David S. II. Title. H97.P38 2013 320.6—dc23 2011048471 CONTENTS List of Figures ix Step 4: Evaluate Alternative Policies 50 Step 5: Display and Distinguish among List of Tables xi Alternative Policies 51 Preface xv Step 6: Monitor and Evaluate the Implemented Policy 53 2.6 Chapter Summary 56 PART 1 Methods 1 2.7 Glossary 57 CHAPTER 1 2.8 Exercise 58 The Need for Simple Methods of Policy Analysis and Planning 2 CHAPTER 3 1.1 Quick,Basic Policy Analysis 3 Crosscutting Methods 66 1.2 Learning the Methods of Policy Analysis and 3.1 Identifying and Gathering Data 69 Planning 6 3.1.1 Sources of Data 70 1.3 Practical Principles for Beginning Policy 3.1.2 Literature Review 75 Analysts 8 3.1.3 Library Search Methods 77 1.4 Chapter Summary 17 3.1.4 Getting Started 77 3.1.5 Federal Government Information 80 1.5 Organization of the Book 18 3.1.6 Legal Searches 83 1.6 Glossary 18 3.1.7 Management Records 87 1.7 Exercises 19 3.1.8 Observation 88 3.2 Interviewing for Policy Information 89 CHAPTER 2 3.2.1 The Investigative Approach 89 The Policy Analysis Process 21 3.2.2 Structure and Closure 91 3.2.3 Choosing the Interviewees 91 2.1 Types of Policy Analysis 22 3.2.4 Making Contact 92 2.2 The Role of the Analyst 24 3.2.5 Conducting the Interview 93 3.2.6 Using Your Time Efficiently 95 2.3 Ethical Considerations 27 2.3.1 Values in Analysis 29 3.3 Quick Surveys 96 2.3.2 Ethical Analysis 30 3.3.1 Types of Surveys 97 2.3.3 Ethical Principles and Rules 34 3.3.2 Survey Methods 98 2.3.4 Guidelines for Professional Conduct 36 3.3.3 Questionnaire Construction 99 2.4 The Analytic Process 40 3.3.4 Sample Selection 99 2.5 Basic Policy Analysis in Six Steps 43 3.4 Evaluating Data and Information 100 Step 1: Verify, Define, and Detail the Problem 44 3.4.1 Estimating Data Quality 100 Step 2: Establish Evaluation Criteria 47 3.4.2 Document Analysis 101 Step 3: Identify Alternative Policies 49 3.4.3 Determining Truth from Interviews 103 iii iv Contents 3.5 Basic Data Analysis 103 5.2.4 Standing 184 3.5.1 Descriptive Data Analysis 104 5.2.5 Externalities 186 3.5.2 Graphic Techniques 105 5.2.6 Elasticity 187 3.5.3 Tables 113 5.2.7 Marginal Analysis 188 3.5.4 Mapping and Spatial Analysis 116 5.2.8 Equity and Sustainability 191 3.5.5 Descriptive Statistics 120 5.3 Commonly Employed Evaluation 3.5.6 Association or Correlation 121 Criteria 194 3.5.7 Measures of Significance 124 5.3.1 Technical Feasibility 195 3.6 Communicating the Analysis 125 5.3.2 Economic and Financial Possibility 196 3.6.1 Getting It on Paper 126 5.3.3 Political Viability 200 3.6.2 Using Graphics to Communicate 127 5.3.4 Administrative Operability 203 3.6.3 Organizing the Report 128 5.4 Chapter Summary 204 3.6.4 In-Person Communication 130 5.5 Glossary 205 3.7 Chapter Summary 131 5.6 Exercises 207 3.8 Glossary 131 3.9 Exercises 133 CHAPTER 6 Identifying Alternatives 215 CHAPTER 4 Verifying,Defining,and Detailing the 6.1 Sources of Alternatives 218 Problem 140 6.2 Searching for Alternatives 220 6.2.1 Researched Analysis and Experimentation 221 4.1 Identifying and Defining Problems 141 6.2.2 No-Action (Status Quo) Analysis 221 4.2 Developing the Problem Statement 144 6.2.3 Quick Surveys 224 4.3 Back-of-the-Envelope Calculations 146 6.2.4 Literature Review 224 6.2.5 Comparison of Real-World Experiences 224 4.4 Quick Decision Analysis 150 6.2.6 Passive Collection and Classification 225 4.5 Creation of Valid Operational Definitions 155 6.2.7 Development of Typologies 225 4.6 Political Analysis 158 6.2.8 Analogy, Metaphor, and Synectics 225 6.2.9 Brainstorming 227 4.7 The Issue Paper versus First-Cut 6.2.10 Comparison with an Ideal 229 Analysis 165 6.3 Creating Alternatives 230 4.8 Chapter Summary 167 6.3.1 Feasible Manipulations 231 4.9 Glossary 168 6.3.2 Modifying Existing Solutions 231 4.10Exercises 168 6.4 Pitfalls to Avoid 235 6.5 Chapter Summary 236 CHAPTER 5 6.6 Glossary 237 Establishing Evaluation Criteria 176 6.7 Exercises 238 5.1 The Process of Establishing Evaluation Criteria 177 CHAPTER 7 5.2 Several Important Economic Concepts 180 Evaluating Alternative Policies 243 5.2.1 The Free-Market Model 180 5.2.2 Costs 182 7.1 Forecasting Methods 244 5.2.3 Benefits 183 7.1.1 Extrapolative Techniques 246 Contents v 7.1.2 Theoretical Forecasting Techniques and 9.3.2 With-and-Without Comparisons 352 Modeling 252 9.3.3 Actual-versus-Planned Performance 7.1.3 Intuitive Forecasting Techniques 257 Comparisons 352 9.3.4 Experimental Models 353 7.2 Evaluation Methods 259 9.3.5 Quasi-Experimental Models 355 7.2.1 Discounting 259 9.3.6 Cost-Oriented Evaluation 7.2.2 Three Measures of Efficiency 263 Approaches 359 7.2.3 Sensitivity Analysis 267 7.2.4 Allocation Formulas 271 9.4 Which Method Should Be Used? 361 7.2.5 Quick Decision Analysis Revisited 277 9.5 Principles of Quick Evaluation 362 7.2.6 Political Analysis 282 9.6 Chapter Summary 366 7.3 Uncertainty 293 9.7 Glossary 367 7.4 Chapter Summary 295 9.8 Exercises 368 7.5 Glossary 296 7.6 Exercises 297 PART 2 Cases 375 CHAPTER 8 CHAPTER 10 Displaying Alternatives and Distinguishing Downtown Development 376 among Them 314 10.1 Introduction 376 8.1 Problems in Selecting the Best Policy 315 10.2 The Assignment 377 8.2 Conflict between Individual and Collective 10.3 Background Information 377 Rationality 317 8.3 The Problem of Multiple Criteria 318 CHAPTER 11 8.4 Several Methods of Dealing with Multiple Defending against Accusations Criteria 320 of Discriminatory Housing 8.4.1 Basic Comparison Methods 321 Practices 379 8.4.2 Matrix (Scorecard) Display Systems 330 8.4.3 Other Matrix Methods 332 11.1 Introduction 379 8.4.4 Weights, Rating Systems, and Index 11.2 The Assignment 379 Numbers 334 11.3 Background Information 380 8.5 Chapter Summary 335 11.4 The Data and Data Problems 381 8.6 Glossary 336 11.5 Learning Objectives 381 8.7 Exercises 337 11.6 Exhibits 381 Exhibit 11.1 Newspaper Article 381 CHAPTER 9 Exhibit 11.2 Examples of Housing Monitoring and Evaluating Implemented Discrimination 383 Policies 341 Exhibit 11.3 Current Rental Rates 9.1 Types of Policy Failures 344 by Race for All Peters-Owned Buildings 9.2 The Policy Evaluation Continuum 346 (Tables 11.1–11.8) 384 9.3 Types of Ex-Post Evaluation 347 Exhibit 11.4 Consumer Price Index 9.3.1 Before-and-After Comparisons 352 (Table 11.9) 385 vi Contents Exhibit 11.5 Estimates of Population and Exhibit 13.7 Table 13.5Comments on Households by Race for Counties in the MSA Parking and Transportation by University and SMSA (Tables 11.10–11.14) 386 Affiliation 408 11.7 Source Material 387 13.7 Source Material 408 CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 14 Municipal Garbage:Solid-Waste Collection Emergency Aid for Home Heating Fuel: Methods 388 Developing an Allocation Formula 409 12.1 Introduction 388 14.1 Introduction 409 12.2 The Assignment 389 14.2 The Assignment 410 12.3 Exhibits 389 14.3 The Specific Tasks 411 Exhibit 12.1 Draft Report on DPW 14.4 Exhibits 412 Solid-Waste Collection Experiments 389 Exhibit 14.1 Memo from CSA Director Exhibit 12.2 Summary Report:Time/Cost G.G.Ortiz to All Governors 412 Comparisons for Solid-Waste Collection Methods 394 Attachment 1 Poverty Guidelines for Wisconsin Households,2011 414 CHAPTER 13 Exhibit 14.2 Internal Memorandum / WHEAP 414 University On Campus Parking Policies 397 Table 14.1 Propane (LP) and Fuel Oil 13.1 Introduction 397 Survey,2011 415 13.2 The Assignment 397 Table 14.2 Total Number of Disconnected 13.3 Background Information 398 Households Estimated by County,2011 416 13.4 Guidelines for Analysis 402 Table 14.3 Estimated Percentages of Types of Fuel Used for Home Heating,by County 13.5 Final Report 402 and the State of Wisconsin,2011 417 13.6 Exhibits 403 Table 14.4 Heating Degree Days by County, Exhibit 13.1 Table 13.1Parking Pricing and State of Wisconsin,Averages for 1981–2010 Supply at Selected Universities 403 (Base Temperature 65°) 417 Exhibit 13.2 Figure 13.1Student Center 14.5 Source Material 418 Parking Deck Utilization 404 Exhibit 13.3 Table 13.2State University Annual Parking and Transportation Budget CHAPTER 15 (in thousands of dollars) 405 A State Tax on Plastic Shopping Bags 419 Exhibit 13.4 Figure 13.2Annual Capital 15.1 Introduction 419 Expenditures for Parking 406 15.2 The Assignment 421 Exhibit 13.5 Table 13.3Travel Behavior by 15.3 Underlying Themes 421 University Affiliation 407 15.4 Learning Objectives 421 Exhibit 13.6 Table 13.4Demographics by University Affiliation 407 15.5 Source Material 422 Contents vii CHAPTER 16 16.5 Exhibits 426 Public-Private Redevelopment Projects: Exhibit 16.1 Newspaper Article 426 The Case of Underground Exhibit 16.2 Memo 430 Atlanta 423 Exhibit 16.3 Formal Description of 16.1 Introduction 423 Proposed Project 432 16.6 Source Material 436 16.2 The Assignment 424 16.3 Case Background 424 Bibliography 437 16.4 Issues and Actors 425 Index 454 (cid:53)(cid:73)(cid:74)(cid:84)(cid:1)(cid:81)(cid:66)(cid:72)(cid:70)(cid:1)(cid:74)(cid:79)(cid:85)(cid:70)(cid:79)(cid:85)(cid:74)(cid:80)(cid:79)(cid:66)(cid:77)(cid:77)(cid:90)(cid:1)(cid:77)(cid:70)(cid:71)(cid:85)(cid:1)(cid:67)(cid:77)(cid:66)(cid:79)(cid:76) LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE1.1 The Classical Rational Problem-Solving FIGURE4.3 Ranking of Consequences Associated with Process 4 Four Separate Tax Abatement Policy Outcomes Are Changed 153 FIGURE2.1 A Typical Ethical Dilemma:The City of Oldport—the Hazards of Population Projections 28 FIGURE4.4 A Decision Tree:To Revises or Not To Revises the Community Development FIGURE2.2Ethical Theories 31 Budget 163 FIGURE2.3 A Framework for Ethical Analysis 38 FIGURE4.5 The Benefits of Analysis Received per Unit FIGURE2.4 Alternative Responses to Value Conflicts 39 of Investment in Analysis for Three Separate FIGURE2.5 A Basic Policy Analysis Process 44 Programs 166 FIGURE2.6 A Typical Policy Problem 46 EXERCISE21 FIGURE1 Ambrosia County Finances 173 FIGURE2.7 Newspaper Article 54 FIGURE6.1 Methods of Identifying Alternatives 221 FIGURE2.8 Newspaper Article 55 FIGURE7.1 U.S.Population Totals,1900–2050 245 FIGURE3.1 Data Quality Checklist 101 FIGURE7.2 U.S.Population Changes, FIGURE3.2 Pie Chart:Sun City Neighborhood 1900–2010 247 Populations,2010 108 FIGURE7.3 Population of Wisconsin,1900–2010 249 FIGURE3.3 Bar Chart:Number of Households by Race, Holly Hill,2010 109 FIGURE7.4 Wisconsin Population Changes, 1900–2010 250 FIGURE3.4 Histogram:Number of Households by Income, Bayside,2010 109 FIGURE7.5 Population of a Growing Suburb, 1920–2010 250 FIGURE3.5 Dot Diagram:Number of Households by Income,Bayside,2010 110 FIGURE7.6 Logarithm of Population of a Growing Suburb,1920–2010 251 FIGURE3.6 Scatter Diagram:Rent versus Household Income,Fairmont,2010 111 FIGURE7.7 The Tax Abatement for Development Decision Diagram 278 FIGURE3.7 Time-Series Diagram:Number of Households in Bayside,1920–2010 112 FIGURE7.8 Probabilities for Tax-Abatement Outcomes 279 FIGURE3.8 The x and y Axes 114 FIGURE7.9 To Sell or Not Sell Land to the Highest FIGURE4.1 The Basic Decision Sapling 150 Bidder 281 FIGURE4.2 Shall We Abate Taxes to Encourage FIGURE8.1 Graph of Suitability Rankings 323 Downtown Developement? 151 ix

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