Carnegie Quarterly - Winter 1996 Balkan Tragedy Contents: • Balkan Tragedy • Mental Illness: The Hidden Crisis in Developing Countries • Meet Your Global Neighbor • Carnegie Corporation News Balkan Tragedy On the eve of the post-cold war revolutions in eastern and central Europe, Yugoslavia was arguably the most likely to make a successful transition to democracy and a market economy. It had never subscribed to the virulent communism of Stalin, its borders were relatively open to people and trade, it borrowed money from the International Monetary Fund under free-market conditions, it was a member of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, and it had economic ties to the European Community and the European Free Trade Association. But just two short years after the fall of the Berlin Wall in November l989, Yugoslavia, a nation of six semi-autonomous republics, had ceased to exist. Slovenia and Croatia had declared independence, savage nationalistic and ethnic wars had broken out in Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina, and the Western powers -- the United States, Europe, and the North Atlantic Treaty Alliance (NATO) -- together with the United Nations were thwarted in their efforts to resolve the conflict. What led to this bloody internecine war in Yugoslavia is the story behind Balkan Tragedy: Chaos and Dissolution After the Cold War (The Brookings Institution, 1995, 536 pp.), by Susan Woodward, senior fellow in the Brookings Foreign Policy Studies program, whose work was partly Corporation financed. A long-time scholar of the Balkans, university professor, and policy analyst, Woodward has observed the unfolding events in the former Yugoslavia over many years, first as a Ph.D. student in comparative politics. Between 1970 and 1985, she made frequent trips to Yugoslavia, staying anywhere from six weeks to three years, mainly in Croatia. Her more recent insights were gathered as a member in 1994 of a United Nations mission sent to Bosnia to monitor cease-fires and provide humanitarian aid. There she headed up an analysis and assessment unit at UN headquarters in Zagreb, Croatia. "By the end of 1991, after Slovenia and Croatia declared independence," she explains, "it became clear to me that Yugoslavia had been badly misunderstood and that this had led to bad policy. It seemed to me that it might be good to explain what was really happening." Woodward sees Bosnia as "a defining moment for the post-cold war period, in which all the issues left unresolved since the breakup of the former Soviet Union were brought into play." She blames the West for failing to understand the root cause of Yugoslavia's problems and for exacerbating these problems by trying to solve them with cold war thinking inappropriate to the situation. The disintegration of governmental authority and the breakdown of political and civil order took place over a prolonged period, she says, against the backdrop of dramatic changes in the international environment that subjected the country to wrenching stresses. Among these were mounting pressures by international agencies for Yugoslavia to speedily transform itself from a socialist society to a market economy and democracy, when the country was incapable of marshaling an adequate response. For those who have the patience to follow Woodward's analysis of events leading up to hostilities between Croatia and Serbia, the book will be a revelation, though not one that will persuade everybody, because it holds the West partly responsible for the first major war to break out in Europe since 1945, when the instruments were presumably put in place to prevent such a thing from ever occurring again. Chaos and Dissolution According to Woodward, it is plain wrong to think that Yugoslavia broke apart because it was an "artificial country" made up of ethnically diverse republics held together by the repression of national sentiments and by the charisma and will of strongman Josip Broz Tito, the World War II leader who was president until his death in 1980. Yugoslav society, rather, was held together both by an extensive system of rights and overlapping sovereignties and by a complex balancing act at the international level. Far from being repressed, she says, national identity and rights were institutionalized by Tito -- in a federated system that granted near statehood to the republics and individual, group, and national rights to social and economic equality. But the administrative capacity of the federal government was weak and its decentralized economies progressively overstretched as they headed into the post-cold war era. When stiff economic and political reforms were forced on Yugoslavia in return for continued International Monetary Fund support, the divisions between the six republics became fissures that began to widen. To Woodward, the market reforms, privatization, and slashed budgets demanded of an unstable country by foreign creditors and by Western governments virtually asked for political suicide. In the decade following Tito's death, the civil and legal order in Yugoslavia began to fall apart. There was large-scale unemployment among young people and unskilled urban dwellers; demobilized soldiers and security police were looking in vain for jobs in the private sector; hyperinflation encouraged black market activities and crime; and local and global traffic in small arms and ammunition was flourishing. The social conditions were potentially explosive. Diminished Strategic Importance At the same time that internal conditions were deteriorating and Yugoslavia was beset by external demands, eastern Europe's strategic importance to the West began to diminish. The Warsaw Pact had collapsed, and Yugoslavia no longer figured as a bulwark against Soviet expansionism. Having worked out arms and force reduction agreements with the Soviet Union, the NATO states were reluctant to respond to the worsening situation on the southeastern flank of Europe. Woodward writes: "For forty years Yugoslavia had had a special relationship with the United States, including the implicit guarantee of special access to Western credits to keep Yugoslavia's trade deficit afloat in exchange for Yugoslav neutrality and military capacity to deter Warsaw Pact forces from western Europe. Now, however, Yugoslavia was unnecessary to U.S. vital security. It was being moved from a special category in the U.S. State Department and international organizations, a category in which it stood alone or shared its status with southern Europe, and returned to its pre-1949 category, defined geopolitically, of eastern and southeastern Europe." Fanning the Flames A byproduct of disastrous Western economic policies toward Yugoslavia, and of the West's neglect, declares Woodward, was rising militant nationalism. Ethnic resentments, suspicion, and fear were inflamed by several leaders, in particular Serbia's Slobodan Milosevic and Croatia's Fanjo Tudjman, both of whom became presidents of their respective republics, as well as Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadsic -- each standing to gain power from their demagoguery. Milosevic, for example, fueled the claims of Serbs for national rights by accepting local Serb assertions in Kosovo that they were victims of "genocide" by ethnic Albanians. Croatia did its part to erect nationalistic barriers by rewriting its constitution to deny Serbs equal political status with Croatians and by adopting the historical symbols of Croatian statehood, which were last seen in fascist Croatia from 1941 to 1945. Nationalistic concerns were heightened even more when Croatia and Slovenia held multiparty elections in 1990. Those elections became the vehicle by which the republics of Slovenia and Croatia legitimized their assertion of sovereignty for their majority nations on the grounds of the right to self determination. They declared their independence from Yugoslavia in the summer of 1990. Woodward writes that, rather than being a regular instrument of popular choice and expression of political freedom for the transition to a democratic system, the elections "became the critical turning point in the process of political disintegration over a decade of economic crisis and constitutional conflict...." Yugoslavia was now becoming an agglomeration of sovereign independent states, and the fight for territorial gain, for territorial autonomy, and for ethnic purity began. The Yugoslav political theorist Vladimir Gligorov encapsulated the new reasoning as, "Why should I be a minority in your state when you can be a minority in mine?" The result in mid-l991 was war in Croatia between Croatia and the Yugoslav Peoples Army, one of the last vestiges of the old Yugoslav state, which tried to prevent Croatia's secession. A second war for territory now erupted in Bosnia-Herzegovina, as Croatia and Serbia vied for bits and pieces of the undefended republic and as people fleeing from the conflict caused Europe's greatest refugee crisis of the post-World War decades. Says Woodward, "Bosnia was a republic of three nations, each represented by one political party in the ruling coalition of 1990-91. Each was fighting for its own ideas of national self-determination -- choosing their political future as independent, or united with Serbia or with Croatia. Europe and the United States made fundamental errors in not recognizing this legal problem." The West's Muddled Response The author argues that the West made two serious miscalculations in its handling of Yugoslavia's disintegration, effectively hastening the bloodshed in Croatia and Bosnia. The first was the precipitate recognition by the European Community (EC) of the new states of Slovenia and Croatia and by the United States of Bosnia-Herzegovina. These decisions were affirmed by the United Nations, which admitted them as separate states to the UN in May 1992. Woodward writes, "In recognizing the Slovene and Croatian declarations of independence in the face of substantial opposition from within Yugoslavia -- thus accepting without question that the republics were sovereign states and bore exclusively the right to national self- determination -- the Europeans, for example, handed a victory to the confederalists. The federalists lost to the EC, not to a domestic vote or an elite political party. The EC also defeated, by elimination, the third party to the constitutional conflict, the Yugoslav federal government." The second mistake was the failure of the U.S., Europe, NATO, and the UN to agree to a course of action that would resolve the worsening crisis. Compounding the problem was a lack of communication and common front in the West. Observes Woodward, "The many conflicting signals could have been read in several ways: as support for the Slovene and Croatian cause, for the federal government's policies, for the Serbian suspicions, and for the army's conviction that it needed to prepare a defense and that it would not be deterred by foreign intervention. "The effect was to encourage all parties to the conflict to believe their chosen course would eventually win, and thus to become more tenacious." Inadequacy of Current Security Regimes The lack of agreement among NATO members about how the conflict should be resolved exposed dangerous cracks in the Atlantic alliance and pointed to a general misdirection in the West's efforts to chart a course in the post-cold war world. "The fact is," asserts Woodward, "that these disagreements revealed the lack of leadership and conception of the security regime that should replace the cold war division in Europe. This included the role of the United States as the sole remaining global power, the relations of the United States with its European allies in a new Europe, and the place that Russia would assume in that new world order." Negotiation of a "piecemeal peace" resulted in a series of ineffectual cease-fires. NATO bombing of Serbian positions resulted in more than 200 UN peacekeepers being taken hostage in 1994. And the creation of so-called safe areas in Muslim-majority towns such as Sarajevo and Gorazde that were encircled by Serbian artillery did nothing but escalate the Bosnian war and further expose civilians to bombardment. Now that a fragile peace settlement has been brokered, vouchsafed by NATO and U.S. peacekeeping forces, what are the prospects for a long-term resolution of the war in Bosnia? "Only a political solution is possible," pronounces Woodward. "We had to get a negotiated settlement to stop the fighting -- it is an outrage that it was not done four years ago. But in order to get significant change, we have to resolve certain issues that have not yet been addressed. If we do not address them, there will be more ethnic cleansing, more ethnically pure areas, and an unstable region for years to come. We have more work to do." For information: Susan Woodward, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W., Washington, DC 20036. Mental Illness: The Hidden Crisis in Developing Countries While the West is worrying about the resurgence of infectious diseases, low-income nations like Egypt, India, and Zaire ironically are grappling with a variety of mental health problems that are often an unexpected side effect of improved economies and living conditions. Life expectancy has increased with more effective public health and medical treatment, but this blessing is also associated with more depression, schizophrenia, and dementia. Advancing economies have been marked by higher rates of alcoholism, drug abuse, and suicide. Psychiatric disorders among children in low- income countries make up a significant part of the reason for visits to child primary health clinics. And while maternal mortality has declined, violence against women, young and old, is growing. Rape and sexual abuse have come to be regarded as unremarkable aspects of war. These problems until now have received scant attention from governments, health officials, and international aid groups. But World Mental Health: Problems and Priorities in Low- Income Countries, by Robert Desjarlais, Leon Eisenberg, Byron Good, and Arthur Kleinman (Oxford University Press, 1995, 382 pp.), is beginning to rectify the situation. This study, by members and associates of Harvard Medical School's department of social medicine, examines the mental, emotional, and behavioral anomalies that often lurk behind the medical aspects of disease in the developing world. Among its many prescriptions for policy and program changes are the inclusion of mental health care in essential national health services and more ethnographic and cross-cultural research for the benefit of all societies beset by mental health problems. The authors look at mental illness arising from war, poverty, famines, and natural disasters, which are endemic in many countries and not only kill and maim but demoralize whole populations and impair the mental and physical development of the young. While these are conditions that a physician or mental health practitioner may be helpless to change, at least the connections to sickness can be better understood and more effective interventions possibly devised for affected regions of the world. The High Cost of Mental Illness It is sobering to think that the rise of mental health problems could imperil the hard-won gains in physical health made by so many low-income countries over the past forty years, but this is the conclusion of Professor Kleinman and his colleagues. Kleinman, a social anthropologist and psychiatrist who chairs the medical school's department of social medicine, directed the two-year study with partial Corporation support. As the authors report, the total number of cases of schizophrenia in developing nations is projected to increase from 16.7 million in 1985 to 24.4 million by decade's end, largely because of a 45-percent increase in the population of fifteen- to forty-five-year-olds, the age cohort most susceptible to the disease. Similarly, instances of senile dementia are increasing as more people live past the age of sixty-five. The mental anguish experienced by nearly one-fifth of the world's population living in abject poverty is nearly incalculable. Yet, if the per capita income of some countries continues its downward course, the conditions for malnutrition, illness, social strife, political instability, and despair stand only to worsen. More than 23 million people in the world are officially refugees, mainly from the nations of Asia and Africa. A similar number are displaced within their own countries by wars and famine. Many of those driven from their homes suffer some form of mental distress, including post-traumatic stress disorder. Children displaced or orphaned by chronic violence are the cruelest victims in countries like Guatemala, Cambodia, Mozambique, Eritrea, and South Africa. In other realms, terror "creates a surreal environment of confusion, mistrust, and fearful silence." Complex Origins The authors decry two simplistic and contradictory conclusions often drawn about the origins of mental illness in low-income countries. One is that mental illness is rooted in "underdevelopment" and lack of wealth per se. The other is that most of the pathologies are "caused" by the breakdown of coherent cultures and communities that frequently accompany modernization. There is little real evidence in either direction: emotional and behavioral problems do not decline with the rise in a society's wealth, nor do they increase as a direct result of economic development, although the prevalence of some types of illness may change. Such simple models fail to advance understanding of what are indeed very complex interactions among diverse global and local processes. What their book offers instead is a number of "causal pathways" that might assist in understanding these processes and in designing intervention strategies. First, both biological and social factors are involved in mental disorders. Second, there are often multiple interacting factors at work -- for example, suicide and drug abuse are more likely to occur when the means of engaging in such self-destructive behaviors are readily at hand. Third, behavioral and other mental health problems tend to occur in clusters. Fourth, the problems described in the report are best understood as a "vicious spiral" rather than a chain of conditions -- in which abused children are more likely than others to become abusers themselves. Finally, key social forces, such as institutionalized discrimination against women, recur as sources of social and psychiatric morbidity. Research and Action Although many countries face similar mental and social health concerns, World Mental Health warns that research and programs of amelioration, to succeed, must "meet the challenge of diversity." To make their work locally relevant and sustainable, therefore, researchers would do well to follow six general principles, whether in Boston or Bangladesh: • At the outset, conduct focused ethnographic studies to provide descriptive maps of local problems, perspectives, social realities, and resources. • Ensure that subsequent intervention studies are community based and built on local institutions, traditions, and values. • Allow citizens and researchers from the areas under study to have substantial control over the research process itself. • Evaluate new technologies and treatments for their cultural relevance and in relation to patterns of use, resources, and priorities. • Establish and monitor ethical standards for research development. • Favor interdisciplinary approaches over those based on a single disciplinary perspective. Beyond offering a research agenda and set of research principles, World Mental Health proposes practical and cost-effective measures that, in both the short run and the long, can be taken by governments and mental health organizations to alleviate mental suffering in low-income nations: • Decentralize mental health services rather than concentrate them in large urban hospitals. • Give higher priority to the most important mental health problems facing particular communities. • Make services culturally relevant rather than narrowly medical, and ensure that they are locally controlled and administered. • Attack the deep-rooted sources of female suffering: discriminatory practices in employment, education, food distribution, health care, and resources for economic development. To reverse this trend, encourage girls to stay in school, compensate working women fairly, and give them the same access to credit for business expansion enjoyed by men. Even in financially burdened countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, the elderly could benefit from inexpensive targeted and universal policies. For nominal sums, governments could support home health programs, education programs on dementia, housing policies that encourage multigenerational families, promotion of employer-sponsored benefits for families taking care of elder members, and income tax relief for families caring for an elderly person. These recommendations share several qualities. They build on local strengths and resources; they attempt to mitigate the worst of economic and structural inequalities; they promote human rights; and they take seriously the fundamental connection between the well-being of individuals and that of communities. For some problems, Kleinman et al. insist that cost-effective solutions are already available and directions for policy initiatives relatively clear. In Zimbabwe, for example, low-cost cooperative residential facilities cater to the needs of the destitute elderly. In such a living situation, residents can contribute to the daily management of the facility as well as maintain their sense of independence and self-worth. For other problems, experimental programs offer promising results that could be replicated or scaled up. Mali's National Program in Mental Health combines psychiatric services with traditional healing practices within an integrated primary health system. It has to be acknowledged, however, that the sheer magnitude of some illnesses is such that ready answers are not at hand. The situation is not helped by the largely "unbridged gap" between research and policy, which often prevents practical knowledge or suggestive findings from being applied on the ground. World Mental Health urges international agencies to mount a campaign to inform policy makers of relevant mental and social health research literature and to move mental health issues from the margin to the center of health and social policy in all countries. "We are now in the United Nations Year of Indigenous Peoples. There soon needs to be a United Nations Year of Mental Health." For information: Arthur Kleinman, M.D., Maude and Lillian Presley Professor of Medical Anthropology and Chair, Department of Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, 641 Huntington Ave., Boston, MA 02115.. Some Key Findings from World Mental Health • Mental retardation and epilepsy rates are three to five times higher in low-income societies than in industrialized countries. • The total number of cases of schizophrenia in low-income societies will increase from 16.7 million in 1985 to 24.4 million by the year 2000. • By the year 2025, some 80 million persons with dementia -- three quarters of the world's total -- will live in low-income societies. • Well over 40 million of the world's refugees and internally displaced persons run a high risk of depression, anxiety disorders, and post-traumatic distress and other forms of emotional illness that are the consequences of political violence. • Rates of domestic violence against married women vary from a low of 20 percent to a high of 75 percent in developing nations. Such rates are particularly high in association with alcohol abuse among men. • Child abuse, including the use of juveniles in the commercial sex industry; industrial slavery; and abandonment, is becoming endemic in many parts of the world. Mental Illness Links Rich and Poor "Mental health is not simply the absence of detectable mental disease, but a state of well- being in which the individual realizes his or her own abilities, can work productively and fruitfully, and is able to contribute to her or his community. That is a state desired by individuals in Delhi no less fervently than it is in New York. Chronically high levels of violence are deadly on the streets of Los Angeles, in the working-class neighborhoods of Belfast, and in the slums of Caracas. Women with abusive relationships face physical and emotional hardship, even death, whether they live in Sydney, Boston, or Nairobi." -- World Mental Health Meet your Global Neighbor How to organize a secure, just, democratic, and peaceful future on the planet is the focus of the independent Commission on Global Governance, which has reported its findings and conclusions in a comprehensive, far- reaching report. Our Global Neighbourhood (Oxford University Press, 1995, 410 pp.), the work of twenty- eight international luminaries who met over two years, offers nothing less than a grand vision for creating the "global civil society" -- one with a broadened concept of international security, to include the security of individuals, sustainable development, and freedom from want. The commission's program of action calls for a renewed system of international cooperation under the United Nations and development of enlightened international leadership that can "inspire people to acknowledge their responsibilities to each other and to future generations." Central are the prevention and management of conflict, United Nations reform, protection of the global ecosystem, clear rules governing economic integration, and worldwide acceptance of the rule of law encompassing a set of rights and responsibilities common to all. Former West German chancellor Willy Brandt initiated the commission in 1992. Chaired by Ingvar Carlsson, former prime minister of Sweden, and Shridath Ramphal, past secretary-general of the Commonwealth, its members include Oscar Arias, Nobel peace prize winner and former president of Costa Rica; Allan Boesak, member of the African National Congress's National Executive Committee; Barber Conable, former president of the World Bank; Jacques Delors, former president of the European Commission; Qian Jiadong, deputy director-general of the China Centre for International Studies; and Yuli Vorontsov, current Russian ambassador to the United States. Carnegie Corporation contributed toward the publication and dissemination of the report. Commission members specify they are not proposing a move toward world government. Quite the contrary, "Were we to travel in that direction, we could find ourselves in an even less democratic world than we have -- one more accommodating to power, more hospitable to hegemonic ambition, and more reinforcing of the roles of states and governments rather than the rights of people." Their goal is to achieve a state of global governance, in which people have "the will and capacity to take control of their lives," and governments, intergovernmental and nongovernmental organizations, academia, the media, and citizens "work together to create the kind of society they want for themselves and their children." Survival and Security The report underscores that, even though the communist threat to the West has diminished, the world is still a dangerous and inhospitable place for millions of people. Estimates are that in the last few years at least thirty major armed conflicts -- defined as those causing more than 1,000 deaths annually -- have been in progress. A traditional cornerstone of the international system has been the concept of national sovereignty, but as the commission points out, threats to national sovereignty and territorial integrity today often have their roots within states, not between states. Dealing with these problems in a world of increasing interdependence may require the collective exercise of sovereignty on behalf of the "global commons," concludes the commission. The group's proposal is to amend the United Nations Charter to let the UN Security Council approve both military and humanitarian intervention into domestic affairs in cases of flagrant violation of the security of people "so gross and extreme that it requires an international response." A further recommendation is for a "Right of Petition" to let nations bring situations that endanger the security of a people to the attention of the Security Council. In the realm of peacekeeping, commission members urge the creation of a UN Volunteer Force consisting of up to 10,000 personnel -- not to take the place of large-scale peacekeeping forces but to act as a deterrent by letting the Security Council back up preventive diplomacy with the threat of "a quickly deployed armed force." Additionally, the report asks the international community to reaffirm its commitment to eliminate nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction and to pursue a program for achieving that end in ten to fifteen years. Managing Economic Interdependence The pace of globalization of financial and other markets is outstripping the capacity of governments to provide the necessary framework of rules and cooperative arrangements for solving global economic problems "in the round" and for considering the linkages among economic, social, environmental, and security issues. So states the commission. One solution, members suggest, is to create a new UN body called the Economic Security Council, structured like the Security Council. While it would not have the authority to make legally binding decisions, its tasks would be to assess on a continuous basis the overall state of the world economy and use its standing to promote consensus and policy consistency among the different international organizations on strategies for tackling economic instability, ecological crises, international drug traffic, a marginalized global underclass, the transformation of the former Soviet Union, and lack of food security. Global Environmental Threats In Our Global Neighbourhood, the commissioners explore the relationship of poverty, population growth, and consumption to environmental degradation. Growing awareness that the global ecosystem may be seriously damaged has at last nudged governments into devising cooperative, albeit weak, approaches to address the overfishing of oceans, species extinction, ozone layer depletion, and the buildup of greenhouse gases. But in urging restraints on the behavior of burgeoning populations, the commission points the finger as much at high-consuming nations as low. The report emphasizes that developed nations must reduce their overuse of scarce resources without slackening their efforts at poverty alleviation. "The failure to establish a common approach can have disastrous consequences," they warn. United Nations Reforms Far from dismantling and replacing the architecture of the United Nations, the commission advocates an expansion of the Security Council's membership to reflect current geopolitical realities. Recommended is a two-step revision. First, add five new "standing" members to the council -- two from industrial countries and one each from Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Second, increase the number of nonpermanent members from ten to thirteen. Permanent members are also urged to enter into a "concordat" to forgo the use of the veto except in circumstances of an "exceptional and overriding nature." Then, around the year 2005, there should be a full review of the Security Council's membership and future status, taking into consideration the growing strength of regional bodies.