“What accounts for the recent spread of autocracy in the world? This important book develops a systematic conceptualization of the ‘attrac- tion’ exerted by powerful authoritarian regimes and demonstrates its analytical usefulness through well-chosen and thoroughly researched case studies. An interesting guide to understanding democracy’s current predicament!” Kurt Weyland, Mike Hogg Professor in Liberal Arts, University of Texas at Austin “Based on painstaking research in different regions of the world, this thought-provoking set of studies provides new explanations for the re- gional clustering of autocracies.” Marlies Glasius, Professor of International Relations, University of Amsterdam Taylor & Francis Taylor & Francis Group http://taylorandfrancis.com Authoritarian Gravity Centers Autocracies not only resist the global spread of democracy but are sources of autocratic influence and pressure. This book presents a con- ceptual model to understand, assess, and explain the promotion and dif- fusion of authoritarian elements. Employing a cross-regional approach, leading experts empirically test the concept of authoritarian gravity centers (AGCs), defined as “regimes that constitute a force of attraction and contagion for countries in geo- political proximity.” With an analysis extending across Latin America, the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and Asia, these AGCs are shown to be effective as active promoters (push) or as neutral sources of attraction (pull). The authors contend that the influence of exogenous factors, along with international and regional contexts for the transfor- mation of regime types, is vital to understanding and analyzing the trans- mission of autocratic institutional settings, ideas, norms, procedures, and practices, thus explaining the regional clustering of autocracies. It is the regional context in which external actors can influence authoritarian processes most effectively. Authoritarian Gravity Centers is a vibrant and comprehensive contri- bution to the growing field of autocratization, which will be of great in- terest to undergraduate and postgraduate students of comparative area studies, illiberalism, international politics, and studies of democracy. Marianne Kneuer is Professor for Political Science, Director of the Insti- tute of Social Sciences at the University of Hildesheim, Germany, and current President of International Political Science Association (IPSA). Her research interests include studying comparative regime studies, quality of democracy, and democratization, especially the international dimension of democratization and of autocratization. Thomas Demmelhuber is Professor of Middle East Politics and Society at the Friedrich-Alexander-University of Erlangen-Nürnberg, Germany. Demmelhuber’s research focuses on state, power, and politics in the Mid- dle East from a comparative perspective, including that of international actors such as the European Union. Conceptualising Comparative Politics: Polities, Peoples, and Markets Edited by Anthony Spanakos (Montclair State University) and Francisco Panizza (London School of Economics) Conceptualising Comparative Politics seeks to bring a distinctive ap- proach to comparative politics by rediscovering the discipline’s rich con- ceptual tradition and interdisciplinary foundations. It aims to fill out the conceptual framework on which the rest of the subfield draws but to which books only sporadically contribute, and to complement theo- retical and conceptual analyses by applying it to deeply explored case studies. The series publishes books that make serious inquiry into fun- damental concepts in comparative politics (crisis, legitimacy, credibility, representation, institutions, civil society, reconciliation) through theo- retically engaging and empirically deep analysis. 7 Trust and Terror Social Capital and the Use of Terrorism as a Tool of Resistance Ammar Shamaileh 8 Manipulating Political Decentralisation Africa’s Inclusive Autocrats Lovise Aalen and Ragnhild L. Muriaas 9 Shaping Citizenship A Political Concept in Theory, Debate and Practice Edited by Claudia Wiesner, Anna Björk, Hanna-Mari Kivistö and Katja Mäkinen 10 The End of Communist Rule in Albania Political Change and The Role of The Student Movement Edited by Shinasi A. Rama 11 Authoritarian Gravity Centers A Cross-Regional Study of Authoritarian Promotion and Diffusion Edited by Marianne Kneuer and Thomas Demmelhuber For more information about this series, please visit: https://www.routledge.com Authoritarian Gravity Centers A Cross-Regional Study of Authoritarian Promotion and Diffusion Edited by Marianne Kneuer and Thomas Demmelhuber First published 2021 by Routledge 52 Vanderbilt Avenue, New York, NY 10017 and by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon, OX14 4RN Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2021 Taylor & Francis The right of Marianne Kneuer & Thomas Demmelhuber to be identified as the authors of the editorial material, and of the authors for their individual chapters, has been asserted in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Kneuer, Marianne, editor. | Demmelhuber, Thomas, 1980– editor. Title: Authoritarian gravity centers : a cross-regional study of authoritarian promotion and diffusion / Edited by Thomas Demmelhuber, Marianne Kneuer. Description: New York, NY : Routledge, 2020. | Series: Conceptualising comparative politics; Volume 11 | Includes bibliographical references and index. | Identifiers: LCCN 2020020681 (print) | LCCN 2020020682 (ebook) | ISBN 9780367442842 (hardback) | ISBN 9781003008804 (ebook) | ISBN 9781000072372 (adobe pdf) | ISBN 9781000072402 (mobi) | ISBN 9781000072433 (epub) Subjects: LCSH: Authoritarianism. | Democracy. Classification: LCC JC480 .A98 2020 (print) | LCC JC480 (ebook) | DDC 320.53—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020020681 LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020020682 ISBN: 978-0-367-44284-2 (hbk) ISBN: 978-1-003-00880-4 (ebk) Typeset in Times New Roman by codeMantra Contents List of Illustrations ix Preface xi PART I Concept 1 1 Autocratization and its Pull and Push Factors – A Challenge for Comparative Research 3 MARIANNE KNEUER AND THOMAS DEMMELHUBER 2 Conceptualizing Authoritarian Gravity Centers: Sources and Addressees, Mechanisms and Motives of Authoritarian Pressure and Attraction 26 MARIANNE KNEUER AND THOMAS DEMMELHUBER PART II Empirical Studies on Authoritarian Gravity Centers: Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Kazakhstan 53 3 Kingdom of Gravity: Autocratic Promotion and Diffusion in Saudi Arabia 55 TOBIAS ZUMBRÄGEL 4 Democratic Erosion and Autocratization in Latin America: The Role of Venezuela as an Authoritarian Gravity Center 89 MARIANNE KNEUER 5 Kazakhstan: A Possible Future Authoritarian Gravity Center? 138 ADELE DEL SORDI AND ALEXANDER LIBMAN viii Contents PART III The International Dimension of Authoritarianism Revisited 173 6 Russia’s Effects on a Consolidated Democracy: The Erosion of Democracy in Hungary and the Putin Model 175 THOMAS AMBROSIO 7 Iran and Its Neighbors: Military Assistance as Support for Authoritarianism 203 RACHEL VANDERHILL 8 Networking with Chinese Characteristics: China’s Party-to-Party Relations in Asia 225 JULIA BADER AND CHRISTINE HACKENESCH 9 Spreading Cyber-Autocracy? The Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Diffusion of Norms of “Internet Sovereignty” 249 SEBASTIAN HARNISCH PART IV Authoritarian Gravity Centers in Cross-Regional Comparison 275 10 Authoritarian Gravity Centers in Cross-Regional Comparison: Future Studies and the International Dimension of Authoritarianism 277 THOMAS DEMMELHUBER, MARIANNE KNEUER, AND TOBIAS ZUMBRÄGEL Notes on Contributors 291 Index 295 Illustrations Figures 2.1 Modes of External Influence: The Concept Tree 40 2.2 Analytical Model 43 3.1 Autocratization in the GCC – Scores on the Democracy Status (Bertelsmann Transformation Index) 56 3.2 Gradation of Saudi Influence Toward its GCC Fellows 57 4.1 The Development of the Democratic Status According to the BTI (2003–2016) 92 8.1 Meetings of the CCP-ID with Party and Non-Party Representatives in Asia, 2002–2017 230 8.2 Heatmap of the CCP-ID’s Activities in Asia by Country, 2002–2017 230 8.3 CCP-ID Contact with Government and Opposition Parties for Different Political Regime Types, 2002–2017 231 Tables 2.1 Sub-Mechanisms: Methods, Instruments, and Coercion 41 4.1 Steps in the Constitutional Reform Process in Venezuela, Ecuador, and Bolivia 107 4.2 Empirical Results of Autocracy Promotion and Diffusion in Latin America 126 6.1 Comparing the Russia Model to Fidesz’s Strategy of Democratic Erosion 194 9.1 SCO Evolution of Membership, Observer, and Dialogue Partner Status 251