Global Assessment of the National System of Official Statistics of the Republic of Armenia 1 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS .................................................................................................... 3 PREFACE ........................................................................................................................... 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................. 7 1. LEGAL BASIS ......................................................................................................... 11 1.1. Overview ......................................................................................................... 11 1.2. Potential Ambiguity Areas in the Law on State Statistics .............................. 12 1.3. The legal basis for other producers of official statistics .................................. 13 1.4. The legal basis for regular stakeholder involvement....................................... 14 1.5. Issues that may be considered in future revision process of the Law on State Statistics ................................................................................................. 15 1.6. Other relevant legislation ................................................................................ 15 2. NATIONAL SYSTEM OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS ............................................. 16 2.1. Structure of the national statistical system ...................................................... 17 2.2. National statistical programming and system coordination mechanisms ....... 21 3. NATIONAL STATISTICAL SERVICE .................................................................. 22 3.1. Institutional mission ........................................................................................ 22 3.2. Organisation of the National Statistical Service.............................................. 22 3.2.1. Organisation of the central office of the NSS ................................... 23 3.2.2. Organisation of regional offices ........................................................ 25 3.3. Resource management ..................................................................................... 26 3.3.1. Finance and budgeting....................................................................... 26 3.3.2. Staff, recruitment, and training.......................................................... 27 3.3.3. Information technology ..................................................................... 28 3.4. Internal and external monitoring of quality and performance ......................... 29 3.5. Dissemination policy ....................................................................................... 30 3.6. Relations with mains users of statistical information ...................................... 34 3.6.1. Relations with the central government .............................................. 34 3.6.2. Relations with local governments ..................................................... 34 3.6.3. Liaison with research institutions and universities............................ 35 3.6.4. Liaison with the business community ............................................... 35 3.6.5. Relations with other user categories .................................................. 36 3 3.7. International cooperation ................................................................................. 37 4. STATISTICAL DOMAINS ...................................................................................... 38 4.1. Classifications ................................................................................................. 38 4.2. Demographic and social statistics ................................................................... 39 4.2.1. Demographic statistics ...................................................................... 39 4.2.2. Population census .............................................................................. 41 4.2.3. Armenian Integrated Living Conditions Survey (ILCS) ................... 42 4.2.4. Labour market statistics..................................................................... 43 4.2.5. Education statistics ............................................................................ 44 4.2.6. Health statistics.................................................................................. 44 4.2.7. Social protection statistics ................................................................. 45 4.3. Macroeconomic statistics ................................................................................ 45 4.3.1. National accounts .............................................................................. 46 4.3.2. External trade statistics (goods) ........................................................ 48 4.3.3. Balance of payments ......................................................................... 48 4.3.4. Foreign direct investment, international investment position, external debt ...................................................................................... 49 4.3.5. Price statistics .................................................................................... 49 4.4. Business statistics ............................................................................................ 51 4.4.1. Short-term business statistics ............................................................ 51 4.4.2. Energy statistics ................................................................................. 52 4.4.3. Transport statistics ............................................................................. 53 4.4.4. Tourism statistics ............................................................................... 54 4.4.5. Construction statistics........................................................................ 54 4.4.6. Business registers .............................................................................. 55 4.5. Agriculture statistics ........................................................................................ 56 4.6. Multi-domain statistics .................................................................................... 58 4.6.1. Environment statistics ....................................................................... 58 4.6.2. Statistics on information and communication technologies .............. 58 ANNEXES ........................................................................................................................ 60 ANNEX 1: AGENDA AND PERSONS MET DURING ASSESSMENT MISSIONS .. 60 ANNEX 2: LAW ON STATE STATISTICS OF REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA ............... 67 ANNEX 3.1: SCIENTIFIC AND METHODOLOGICAL COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL STATISTICAL SERVICE OF THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA – CHARTER ................................................................................................................ 77 4 ANNEX 3.2: SCIENTIFIC AND METHODOLOGICAL COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL STATISTICAL SERVICE OF THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA – MEMBER LIST ........................................................................................................ 79 ANNEX 4: PROPOSALS FOR DISCUSSION IN FUTURE REVISION OF THE LAW .......................................................................................................................... 80 ANNEX 5: 2007-2009 THREE–YEAR STATE STATISTICAL WORK PROGRAMME OF THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA (TRANSLATED EXCEPRTS).............................................................................................................. 83 ANNEX 6: LIST OF INDICATORS SUBMITTED TO THE NSS FOR STATE STATISTICAL WORK BY BODIES IMPLEMENTING ADMINISTRATIVE STATISTICS ............................................................................................................. 93 ANNEX 7: NSS ORGANISATIONAL CHART ........................................................... 116 5 PREFACE The Global Assessment of the National System of Official Statistics of the Republic of Armenia (the Assessment) was jointly undertaken by the European Commission (Eurostat), European Free Trade Association (EFTA), and United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE). The Assessment process was initiated in response to the request by the National Statistical Service of the Republic of Armenia (NSS) to the UNECE made in September 2008. The assessment is based on an extensive review performed during the two Assessment missions. The first mission took place during 21 – 27 January 2009; the assessor team included Mr. Anton Steurer, Mr. Arvydas Andreikenas and Ms. Alina Milasiute (all from Eurostat), Mr. Heinrich Brüngger, Mr. Petteri Baer and Ms. Tiina Luige (all from UNECE), as well as Mr. Jan Byfuglien from Norway/EFTA. Many internal and external partners were met, partly in parallel meetings (see Annex 1). Some written material was also made available by the National Statistical Service (NSS) in advance or during and after the visit. The second mission during 31 March – 2 April 2009 included Mr. Arvydas Andreikenas, Ms. Alina Milasiute, Mr. Petteri Baer, Ms. Tiina Luige, and Mr. Jan Byfuglien and collected information to complete the final Assessment report and draw conclusions. Major written inputs to this evaluation were the Law on State Statistics of the Republic of Armenia, Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) on Data Module for the Republic of Armenia by International Monetary Fund (IMF Country Report No. 09/50, February 2009) and Armenia 2008 Compliance Monitoring Report prepared by the NSS. The first Assessment mission was also prepared through replies to the questionnaire sent out in advance to the NSS, covering main institutional formal and practical issues. The assessment team very much appreciates the well-prepared visits and the openness of the communication both with the staff of the National Statistical Service and with the representatives from other partner and stakeholder organisations. We hope that the Assessment will be of benefit to the further development of the National System of Official Statistics of the Republic of Armenia. 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. The main goal of the Assessment was to evaluate the level of conformity vis-à-vis the accepted international and European standards, incorporating the Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics and European Statistics Code of Practice, as well as Eurostat 2008 Statistical Requirements Compendium. 2. Detailed objectives of the Global Assessment were the following: a. To assess the compliance of the Armenian NSS with international standards, norms, and recommendations, as well as the administrative capacity of the country in the field of statistics; b. To assess the institutional aspects of the national statistical system and its technical and organisational capacity to produce and disseminate official statistics in all relevant areas; c. To assess the compliance level of the NSS with the European statistical requirements and to identify the areas where the adoption of the acquis communautaire is a relevant objective; d. To prepare recommendations regarding the prospective fields of co-operation within future technical assistance programmes of international organisations and other cooperation partners. 3. The main conclusions on institutional environment are the following: a. The professional independence of the NSS is established in the Law on State Statistics; the NSS has a good record in defending its independence. b. The NSS has a strong and clear mandate for collecting data, including the data from administrative sources. c. Statistical confidentiality is well protected in the Law on State Statistics; rules and procedures are in place to ensure good practices. d. Overall, the NSS, if considering the central office together with regional offices and contractual employees, is staffed relatively well. However, available financial resources put serious limits on the development and renewal of the IT equipment which in turn reduces the efficiency of the staff. e. The NSS has a clear commitment to ensure consistently high data quality; however, the data collection methods need to be developed. Lack of a quality management and training system, as well as insufficient resources in the regional offices remain challenges in this context. f. The NSS is committed to effectively address user needs. The dissemination via internet has developed substantially over the recent years; however, the user-friendly access to data and a pro-active dissemination policy should be developed further. g. The NSS follows good impartiality and objectivity practices in compiling and disseminating statistics, as well as in treating users equally and in applying a public release calendar. 7 h. The NSS has a strong coordination role within the national system of statistics and produces around 70 – 80 percent of the official statistics of Armenia. 4. The assessments concerning the coverage and quality of the main statistical subject areas are the following: a. In general, the NSS has a large and timely production of statistics, the best parts of which are based on a register-oriented approach combined with statistical surveys. b. Classification systems used are broadly consistent with international guidelines; further development work is foreseen. c. Many key demographic indicators are being produced and disseminated but some improvement is necessary, especially concerning migration statistics and the modernisation of the production system. d. The 2001 Population Census was an important event; planning and funding of the next population census is a major challenge. e. Within the field of labour market statistics, some of the most important indicators are being produced; however, establishing a regular labour force survey is a major challenge due to insufficient funding. f. Within the field of education statistics, a number of indicators are produced partly based on administrative data from the Ministry of Education and Science. Approximation to the European legislation in this area will be a major challenge. g. The most central elements of health statistics are covered, partly based on administrative sources and partly based on specific health surveys, in cooperation with the Ministry of Health. Approximation to European standards will require development work. h. The Armenian national accounts are in many areas compliant with ESA95; however, some non-compliant areas remain, in particular regarding exhaustiveness. i. A number of price indices are produced and disseminated by the NSS. Some improvements, however, are necessary: consumer price index should cover owner- occupied dwellings, weights for construction price index should be updated, and the work on improving producer price indices should continue. j. Work has been done in improving the quality of construction statistics; however, unlicensed construction remains an issue for the sector estimates. k. The NSS maintains and regularly updates the statistical business register which also incorporates information from administrative registers. The strategy to establish a comprehensive cross-checking and updating of the business register has been developed. l. Transport statistics is quite well developed for parts of the sector but there is a need to improve data on road transport and on transport by private operators. 8 m. Statistics on a number of environmental indicators is compiled and disseminated with relatively few resources but further sector development (for instance, of accounting frameworks) is necessary. 5. The main challenges that should be further addressed through development actions are the following: a. There is some ambiguity concerning the difference between state statistics and administrative statistics and, thus, also concerning the delimitation of the national statistical system and who the partners of the system are. This issue should be addressed at future revisions of the Law on State Statistics and through annual/multi- annual programming. b. In principle, data collected for administrative purposes should be based on specific administrative legislation and never on the Law on State Statistics, even if in the latter access for statistical purposes always should be ensured. Further actions might still be necessary to ensure the application of this principle within some subject areas, such as agriculture and population registration. c. Within the national statistical system, the NSS has a strong coordinating role, especially since the management of the NSS also acts as the State Council on Statistics with specific legislative power. The NSS also has regular contacts with the users and stakeholders through the development of Annual and Three-Year State Statistical Work Programmes. The NSS should evaluate further ways and means on how to develop the regular consultations with users, respondents, and other stakeholders. d. The rather fragmented organisation with numerous very small units provides a challenge in relation to training, development of new projects, and quality management, especially as internal mobility (apart from real promotions) is, due to administrative rules, made practically impossible. This issue should be seriously addressed because it produces artificial barriers for normal development of human resources. e. Insufficient and outdated IT equipment also makes efficient use of existing human resources difficult and hampers productivity. Thus, a better balance in the budget between human and other resources should be considered. f. The role of regional offices should be reconsidered. Implementation of new technological solutions and changes in survey structure should be examined. g. There is a clear need for developing a much more proactive dissemination strategy by providing more user-oriented data on the web, including improved metadata, better access to printed publications, and more efficient communication with users, as well as more frequent use of press conferences and other user-oriented services. h. In order to promote evidence-based decision making and trust in state statistics, activities to increase statistical literacy among different user groups should be undertaken. i. There is a need to review the survey structure, possibly by expanding the use of sample surveys, and to ensure better coordination between surveys, moving from stove-pipe information collection practices into more corporate ones, in order to reduce response burden. 9 j. The work on supporting the development of administrative data sources and registers should be enhanced in close cooperation with relevant authorities and with a proper legal basis. The most pressing issues are related to the farm register which is a basis for the agricultural census, as well as to the population register combined with address register and geo-coding. Both are of great importance for the work on the 2011 population census. Furthermore, a unique identifier for enterprise units should be introduced in the field of business registration. k. Improved financing of the statistical activities is important and thus more possibilities in the use of external funding should be opened up, which might require changes in general public sector financial rules and regulations in Armenia. l. Finally, in most subject areas some improvement actions are proposed in the detailed Assessment Report. Key areas for expected improvements are the following: i. Price indices: consumer, production and - especially - the construction price indices, ii. Exhaustiveness of national accounts and quarterly accounts, iii. Building up statistical registers. 10