Université Panthéon - Assas École Doctorale d’EcoGeInfoCom (ED 455) Thèse de doctorat en Sciences Économiques soutenue le 17 janvier 2014 4 Accumulation des Biens, Croissance et Monnaie 1 0 2 r e i v n a J / t a r o t c o D e d e s è Jean Marie Cayemitte h T Sous la direction du Professeur Damien Gaumont Membres du jury : Rapporteurs : Bertrand Wigniolle, Professeur à l’Université Panthéon–Sorbonne, Paris I Julian Revalski, Professeur à l’Académie Bulgare des Sciences, Sofia, Bulgarie Membres : Joël Blot, Professeur à l’Université Panthéon–Sorbonne, Paris I Bertrand Crettez, Professeur à l’Université Panthéon–Assas, Paris II Damien Gaumont, Professeur à l’Université Panthéon–Assas, Paris II CayemitteJeanMarie|ThèsedeDoctorat|Janvier2014 Avertissement L’université n’entend donner aucune approbation ni improbation aux opinions émises dans cette thèse; ces opinions doivent être considérées comme propres à leur auteur. - 3/247 - I dedicate this thesis to my family : Specially to my wife Ketleine who has encouraged me to undertake and finish this manuscript; To my children Bradley, Kindersley, Garfield and Lucas. - 4/247 - CayemitteJeanMarie|ThèsedeDoctorat|Janvier2014 Acknowledgments I would like to thank the Center of Research on Markets, Employment and Simulation (ERMES) of Pantheon-Assas University for allowing me the opportunity to undertake my PhD since March 2010. In this regard, I owe a special debt to Professor Damien Gaumont, Director of ERMES, for his important role as supervisor of my PhD dissertation and with whom I had opportunity to work on many important research in economics. I also thank Professor Joel Blot (Pantheon-Sorbonne University) for his contribution to the first theoretical model developed in this thesis and his advice in the mathematical structure. I thank all the professors and researchers at the ERMES, particularly Professor Bertrand Crettez for his useful advice and for allowing me the opportunity to work with him as part-time lecturer, Professor Jean Mercier-Ethier for his collaboration, Olivier Cardi for our useful discussion. I am grateful to professor Joël Blot, professor Bertrand Crettez, professor Bertrand Wrigniolle and professor Julian Revalski (Université des Antilles et de la Guyane(UAG)) for being members of dissertation committee. Thanks to professor Revaski (my supervisor of dissertation in Master of mathematics), with whom I had the opportunity to work for the first time on general equilibrium of Debreu in 2006 at the University of French West Indies (UAG). I also thank Professor Randall Wright of University of Wisconsin for his advice on OLG version of this thesis and Mr. Louis Bê Duc of Banque de France for our discussion. I thank the State University of Haiti, particularly the Faculty of Law and Economics (FDSE) and the France Embassy in Haiti for granting this research doctoral thesis. In this regard, I would like to thank professor Fritz Deshommes, Vice-rector of Research for his support in carrying out this thesis. I acknowledge Gelin I. Collot professor and former Dean of FDSE for advising me to undertake this academic research. I am highly indebted to professor Wolf Jovis Bellot, Dean of FDSE, for his useful advice and collaboration. I neverforgetMr.BonnetandMr.Meusfortheirsupportandunderstanding.Ialsothankall the professors of FDSE, particularly Eddy Labossière for our discussions on our respective doctoral thesis. - 5/247 - I would like to Thank Ecole Normale Superieure (ENS) of Port-au-Prince, particu- larly the board members : Berard Cénatus, Etienne and Rosemond for their patience and understanding. I thank the Bank of the Republic of Haiti (Central Bank), particularly members of the Board : Charles Castel (Governor) for his significant support and understanding in achie- vingthisdoctoralthesis,GeorgesHenryFils(DeputyGovernor),JeanBadenDubois(Chief Executive Officer), Georgettes Jean-Louis (member of the Board) and Duroseau (member of the Board). I thank also Philippe Lahens (former deputy Governor) and Remis Montas (former member of the Board) for their support and understanding. I also thank all the members of Money and Economic Analysis Department (MAE), particularly Carlo Janvier (Director), Erol Saint-Louis (Deputy Director), Ronald Gabriel (former Director), Henry Dubois(DirectorofIFBC).IalsothankalltheMAEstafffortheirunderstandingandgood collaboration : Jovis Bellot, Gilles Colbert, Jean Naurable Charles, Jean Lesly Robertson Leger, Julnor George, Nithder Yves Pierre, Ted Augustin, Jemley Jean-Baptist, Carl-Henri Prophète, Augustin Dudley, Ruthland Borga, Sukaina Edouard, Lyssandre Leandre, De- boraDescieux,GihanneAmboise,ClaudeJeanDivers,JodeBeauplan.Iowaspecialthank to all MAE secretaries : Mrs. Augustin, Mrs. Cooper and Miss Orizier (former secretary of MAE). IthankallthePhDstudentsoftheERMESwithwhomIspentgoodmomentsandforbeing goodfriends.SoIciteparticularlyHayetIRZIL,myco-authorwithwhomIhaveworkedon both real options theory and the stocks market, Roger Antoun, Sophie Bienenstock, Inaam Chaabane, Ahmed Chtourou, Nicolas Dumas, Adelaide Fadhuile-Crepy, Emilio Carrera Felix, Farah Hachicha, Narjès Khili, Elie Kolakez, Myriam Kouki, Meriem Maatig, Edwige Marion, Sylvain Mignot, Maïva Ropaul, Stephanie Saba, Aguibou Tall, Emanuel Valat. IamverygratefultoJosetteValentinandNaimaBaba-Aissaforhelpingmethroughout my stay in Paris. With them, I found everything I needed in terms of information about laboratory ERMS and the Panthéon-Assas University. I would like also to thank all the PhD students of Laboratory LEM, particularly Alassa - 6/247 - CayemitteJeanMarie|ThèsedeDoctorat|Janvier2014 Mfouapon with whom I have had good discussions particularly on estimation of the Dyna- mic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models for Cameroon economy and for being a good friend, Maximilian and Lemoyne. I also thank all those who contributed directly or indirectly to the success of the doctoral thesis. - 7/247 - - 8/247 - CayemitteJeanMarie|ThèsedeDoctorat|Janvier2014 Résumé : Cettethèseconstruitunmodèlethéoriquequirenouvellel’approchetraditionnelledel’équi- libre du marché. En introduisant dans le paradigme néo-classique le principe de préférence pour la quantité, il génère de façon optimale des stocks dans un marché concurrentiel. Les résultats sont très importants, car ils expliquent à la fois l’émergence des invendus et l’exis- tence de cycles économiques. En outre, il étudie le comportement optimal du monopole dont la puissance de marché dépend non seulement de la quantité de biens étalés, mais aussi de celle de biens achetés. Contrairement à l’hypothèse traditionnelle selon laquelle le monopoleur choisit le prix ou la quantité qui maximise son profit, il attire, via un indice de Lerner généralisé la demande à la fois par le prix et la quantité de biens exposés. Quelle que soit la structure du marché, le phénomène d’accumulation des stocks de biens apparaît dans l’économie. De plus, il a l’avantage d’expliquer explicitement les achats impulsifs non encore traités par la théorie économique. Pour vérifier la robustesse des résultats du modèle théorique, ils sont testés sur des données américaines. En raison de leur non-linéarité, la méthode de Gauss-Newton est appropriée pour analyser l’impact de la préférence pour la quantité sur la production et l’accumulation de biens, et par conséquent sur les prévisions de PIB. Enfin, cette thèse construit un modèle à générations imbriquées à deux pays qui étend l’équilibre dynamique à un gamma-équilibre dynamique sans friction. Sur la base de la contrainte de détention préalable d’encaisse, il ressort les conditions de sur-accumulation du capital et les conséquences de la mobilité du capital sur le bien-être dans un contexte d’accumulation du stock d’invendus. Mots clés : Comportement Microéconomique, Comportement des entreprises, la théorie économique du Consommateur, Concurrence Parfaite, Monopole, Fluctuations du PIB, Régression non Linéaire, Méthode de Gauss-Newton, Stock d’Invendus, Détention préalable d’Encaisse, Modèle à Générations Imbriquées, Mobilité du Capital, Politique Monétaire. - 9/247 - Abstract : This thesis constructs a theoretical model that renews the traditional approach of the market equilibrium. By introducing into the neoclassical paradigm the principle of pre- ference for quantity, it optimally generates inventories within a competitive market. The results are very important since they explain both the emergence of unsold goods and the existence of economic cycles. In addition, it studies the optimal behavior of a monopolist whose the market power depends not only on the quantity of displayed goods but also that of goods that the main consumer is willing to buy. Contrary to the traditional assump- tion that the monopolist chooses price or quantity that maximizes its profit, through a generalized Lerner index (GLI) it attracts customers’ demand by both the price and the quantity of displayed goods. Whatever the market structure, the phenomenon of inventory accumulation appears in the economy. Furthermore, it has the advantage of explicitly ex- plaining impulse purchases untreated by economics. To check the robustness of the results, the theoretical model is fitted to U.S. data. Due to its nonlinearity, the Gauss-Newton method is appropriate to highlight the impact of consumers’ preference for quantity on production and accumulation of goods and consequently GDP forecast. Finally, this the- sis builds a two-country overlapping generations (OLG) model which extends the dynamic OLG equilibrium to a frictionless dynamic OLG gamma-equilibrium. Based on the cash-in- advance constraint, it highlights the conditions of over-accumulation of capital and welfare implications of capital mobility in a context of accumulation of stock of unsold goods. Keywords : Microeconomic Behavior, Firm Behavior, Economic Theory of the Consumer, Perfect Competition,Monopoly,GDPFluctuations,NonlinearRegression,Gauss-NewtonMethod, Stock of Goods, Cash-in-Advance, Overlapping Generations Model, Capital Mobility, Mo- netary policy. - 10/247 -