Islamic University of Gaza Deanery of Graduate Studies Faculty of Commerce Department of Business Administration Using a Simulation Model for Crisis and Emergency Management (A Case Study on Coastal Municipalities Water Utility "CMWU") ئراوطلا و تامزلأا ةرادلإ ةاكامح جذونم مادختسا )لحاسلا تايدلب هايم ةحلصم ىلع ةلاح ةسارد( Prepared by Firas N. Abu Nqeirah Supervised by Prof. Dr. Yousif Hussain Ashour A Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master in Business Administration 2014 Research Title: Using a Simulation Model for Crisis and Emergency Management (A Case Study on Coastal Municipalities Water Utility "CMWU") Abstract This research develops a highly efficient and effective simulation-based decision making tool which can be applied in real-time management situations. It basically simulates the using of mobile pumps to discharge and dispose flooded storm water from incident areas through efficient and effective resources reallocation to finish the assigned tasks as quickly as possible to minimize the loss of life, asset and property. In this research Arena software package used to combine the using of discrete logic with continuous models to facilitate a solution for the flooding problem due to high storms and rain falls that struck Rafah city on 8 January 2013 and imitates the real time situation taking into account reducing the response time, service time and waiting time spent to finish the assigned tasks and hence output analyzer used to analyze and evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of different suggested scenarios when responding to an emergency event and illustrates which is the best scenario for the decision maker to follow? The model is flexible enough to fit with dynamic situation changes and has the ability to interface with other interactive models using GIS maps, national databases and user friendly interfaces in order to deal with high complex crisis and emergency flooding problems. I :تىاسصىا ُاْ٘ع ئراوطلا و تامزلأا ةرادلإ ةاكاحم جرومن ماذختسا )وداسىا ثايريب ٓايٍ تذيصٍ ىيع تىاد تساشذ( ةلاسرلا صخلم ثف اثٖقيبوح ِثنَي ثخىاٗ ةاثماذَىا ًاردخثسإب شاصثقىا ْثصى ة ٘ثوم ٗ تثيعاف ةاذأ صي٘ثوخب ًاثق ذثذبىا اسٕ ثف اثٍْٖ يدخثىاٗ شاثوٍلأا ٓاثيٍ يصثصخى تثيقْخَىا ثادثضَىا ًاردخثسا ةاثماذٍ ٌثح ذثيد .تثييقاٗ تثيشاذإ ثلااد صثسأ ثف تثيمَ٘ىا ًاثَٖىا اثّٖلإ تثيىايفٗ ة اثونب ذشا٘ثَىا يثصدح ةذاثعإ هلاخ ٍِ ٓايَىا اٖحصَغ خىا قطاَْىا .ه٘صلأاٗ ثانيخََىاٗ حاٗشلأا ف صئاسدىا وييقخى ِنٍَ جقٗ تيصوَْىا تيقوَْىا جزاَْىا ًاردخسا ِيب َجىا ٌح ذيد اْيشأ تيجٍصبىا تٍطذىا ًاردخسا ٌح ذذبىا اسٕ ف ثثخىا شاثثوٍلأا ط٘قثثس ٗ ثثصا٘يىا بثثسب ثاّاثثضيوىا تينثثشَى وثثد ىثثىإ وثثص٘خىا ويٖثثسخى ةصَخثثسَىا جزاثثَْىا ثثٍ ِيثثيب سثثخلأا ثثٍ ٌئاثثقىا ثثقيقذىا ثثض٘ىا ةاثثماذٍ توثثسا٘ب لثثىز ٗ 3102 ًاثثع صياثثْي 8 ً٘ثثي ثثف خثثفش تثثْيرٍ جبصثض ًاردخثسا ٌح ىاخىابٗ تب٘يوَىا ًاَٖىا ضاجّلإ ًضلاىا شاظخّلإا ٍِض ٗ تٍردىا ٍِض ٗ تباجخسلإا ٍِض وييقح شابخعلإا درثذى تباجخثسلاا رثْع تثويخدَىا تثدصخقَىا ثإ٘يشاْيثسىا ة اومٗ تيىايف ٌييقحٗ وييذخى Output analyzer جٍاّصب ؟شاصقىا ّاص ٔيبخي ىخد وضفلأا ٘يشاْيسىا ٕ٘ اٍ خض٘يٗ ئشا٘وىا ثلااد ف ِييٍ تثييباقىا ٔثيرى اثَم تثينيٍاْيرىا اثضٗلأا ثاصثيضح ثٍ ثينخيى فاشذاثق ٔثييجي اثٍ تثّٗصَىا ِثٍ ٔثيرى جز٘ثَْىا اسٕ ةطثٖجَىا ٗ تثيْط٘ىا ثاّايبىا رعا٘ق ٗ GIS ظئاصخ ًردخسح خىا تييعاوخىا جزاَْىا يخدٍ ٍ وٍانخىا ٗ كاصخشلإى تثيىاع ثاّاثضيوىا وماثشٍ ةشاذإثب تصادىا ئشا٘وىا ٗ ثاٍضلأا ٍ وٍايخىا ويبس ف ِيٍردخسَيى تيٖس ثاٖجا٘ب .ريقيخىا II Acknowledgement I would like to thank Prof. Dr. Yousif Ashour, Professor of Operations Research at Islamic University of Gaza, for his constant support, guidance, and knowledge as well as his unending patience. Without such kind of support and supervision the emergence of this dissertation would have been next to impossible. And I also express my appreciation to examination committee members to Prof. Dr. Faris M. Abu Mouamer and Prof. Dr. Samy Abu Naser for their valuable suggestion and comments. I would also like to express my deep gratitude to Eng. Sameh Saqr, area manager of Coastal Municipalities Water Utility - Rafah regional office, also I would like to thank my colleagues in the CMWU, who provided me with data and answered my questions concerning the data collection. Special thanks to those noble people who helped me during model verification and validation stage. Also I would like to thank Eng. Farid Shabban, Eng. Bassel El- hammarna and Ismail El-Zamly for their encouragement and support. Special gratitude must be expressed to my parents for their continuous support. Finally, the deepest appreciation is expressed to my wife, for her silent sacrifice and endless support throughout this long journey. III Dedication TO MY DEAR PARENTS . . . WITH LOVE AND APPRECIATION TO MY PATIENT WIFE . . . TO THE FUTURE OF PALESTINE . . . MY CHILDREN . . . Mohammed,Farah and Yousif IV Table of contents Abstract .......................................................................................................................... I Acknowledgement ....................................................................................................... III Dedication .................................................................................................................... IV Table of contents ........................................................................................................... V List of tables .............................................................................................................. VIII List of figures ............................................................................................................... IX Abbreviations ............................................................................................................... XI Chapter one Introduction ............................................................................................. 2 1.1.Research background ............................................................................................ 2 1.2.Scope of the research ............................................................................................ 3 1.3.Problem statement ................................................................................................ 3 1.4.Research objectives .............................................................................................. 4 1.5.Importance of the research ................................................................................... 4 1.6.Research methodology ......................................................................................... 4 1.6.1.Research methodology ................................................................................... 4 1.6.2.Sources of Data .............................................................................................. 5 1.6.3.Research Steps................................................................................................ 5 1.7.Research framework ............................................................................................ 5 Chapter two Literature review .................................................................................... 7 2.1.CMWU Profile ..................................................................................................... 7 2.1.1.CMWU main objectives ................................................................................. 7 2.1.2.CMWU emergency services........................................................................... 8 2.2.Background of emergency management .............................................................. 8 2.2.1.Crisis concept and crisis lifecycle .................................................................. 9 2.2.2.Crisis and emergency / disaster phases ........................................................ 10 2.2.3.Emergency response system concept ........................................................... 12 2.2.4.Emergency response performance ............................................................... 13 2.2.5.CMWU emergency services (CES) work flow ............................................ 14 2.2.6.Emergency operations centers (EOCs) ........................................................ 15 2.3.Previous research overview ................................................................................ 16 2.3.1.Simulation studies ........................................................................................ 16 2.3.2.Emergency and crisis management .............................................................. 17 2.3.3.Decision support systems ............................................................................. 18 2.4.Comments on previous research ......................................................................... 19 Chapter three Simulation, modeling and decision support systems .......................... 21 V 3.1.Introduction ........................................................................................................ 21 3.2.Concept of simulation and modeling .................................................................. 21 3.2.1.Definition of simulation ............................................................................... 21 3.2.2.Definition of modeling ................................................................................. 22 3.3.Simulation modeling........................................................................................... 22 3.3.1.Simulation study ........................................................................................... 22 3.3.2.Benefits of simulation modeling and analysis.............................................. 23 3.3.3.Pitfalls to guard against in simulation .......................................................... 24 3.3.4.Disadvantages of simulation ........................................................................ 24 3.3.5.Different kinds of simulation ....................................................................... 25 3.3.6.Discrete event simulation (DES) .................................................................. 25 3.3.7.Agent-based simulation (ABS) .................................................................... 26 3.4.Arena simulation package .................................................................................. 26 3.4.1.SIMAN ......................................................................................................... 27 3.4.2.Arena details ................................................................................................. 28 3.5.Decision support systems ................................................................................... 28 3.5.1.Decision support in general .......................................................................... 28 3.5.2.Decision support system concept and elements ........................................... 29 3.5.3.Categories of DSSs....................................................................................... 30 3.5.4.Components of decision support systems .................................................... 31 3.5.5.Challenges of DSSs ...................................................................................... 32 Chapter four Research methodology and design ...................................................... 35 4.1.Introduction ........................................................................................................ 35 4.2.Case study description ........................................................................................ 35 4.3.Research methodology and design ..................................................................... 36 4.3.1.Problem formulation and specifying model ................................................. 38 4.3.2.Simulation study objectives ......................................................................... 38 4.3.3.Data collection and input data analysis ........................................................ 38 4.3.4.Overview of the model ................................................................................. 45 4.3.5.Arena model overview ................................................................................. 46 4.3.6.Model verification ........................................................................................ 66 4.3.7.Model validation .......................................................................................... 67 Chapter five Research analysis and findings ............................................................ 72 5.1.Introduction ........................................................................................................ 72 5.2.Arena model data results analysis ...................................................................... 72 5.3.Scenario analysis ................................................................................................ 75 Chapter six Conclusions and recommendations ....................................................... 80 6.1.Introduction ........................................................................................................ 80 6.2.Conclusions ........................................................................................................ 80 6.3.Recommendations .............................................................................................. 81 6.4.Future research directions ................................................................................... 82 VI References .................................................................................................................... 83 Appendix (A): .............................................................................................................. 93 Appendix (B): .............................................................................................................. 94 VII