arctic security in an age of climate change This is the first book to examine Arctic defense policy and military security from the perspectiveofalleightArcticstates.Inlightofclimatechangeandmeltingiceinthe ArcticOcean,Canada,Russia,Denmark(Greenland),Norway,andtheUnitedStates, aswellasIceland,Sweden,andFinland,aregrapplingwithanemergingArcticsecurity paradigm.Thisvolumebringstogethertheworld’smostseasonedArcticpolitical-military expertsfromEuropeandNorthAmericatoanalyzehowArcticnationsareadaptingtheir security postures to accommodate increased shipping, expanding naval presence, and energyandmineraldevelopmentinthepolarregion.Thebookanalyzestheascentof Russia as the first “Arctic superpower,” the growing importance of polar security for NATOandtheNordicstates,andtheincreasingroleofCanadaandtheUnitedStates intheregion. Dr.JamesKraskaservesastheHowardS.LevieChairofOperationalLawattheU.S. Naval War College, where he also teaches on the faculty of the International Law Department. Kraska is a commander and judge advocate in the U.S. Navy. He has servedaslegaladvisertojointandnavaltaskforcecommandersintheAsia-Pacificand has completed four Pentagon major staff assignments. He was the principal military contributor to the president’s U.S. Arctic Region Policy, and he coordinated Arctic issues and law of the sea for the armed forces at the National Security Council and InternationalMaritimeOrganization.AuthorofMaritimePowerandtheLawoftheSea (2011),KraskaalsoholdsappointmentsasSeniorFellowattheForeignPolicyResearch InstituteinPhiladelphiaandasGuestInvestigatorattheMarinePolicyCenter,Woods HoleOceanographicInstitutioninWoodsHole,Massachusetts.In2010,hewasselected fortheAlfredThayerMahanAwardforLiteraryAchievementbytheNavyLeagueofthe UnitedStates. Arctic Security in an Age of Climate Change Editedby JAMES KRASKA U.S.NavalWarCollege and ForeignPolicyResearchInstitute cambridgeuniversitypress Cambridge,NewYork,Melbourne,Madrid,CapeTown, Singapore,Sa˜oPaulo,Delhi,Tokyo,MexicoCity CambridgeUniversityPress 32AvenueoftheAmericas,NewYork,ny10013-2473,usa www.cambridge.org Informationonthistitle:www.cambridge.org/9781107006607 (cid:2)C CambridgeUniversityPress2011 Thispublicationisincopyright.Subjecttostatutoryexception andtotheprovisionsofrelevantcollectivelicensingagreements, noreproductionofanypartmaytakeplacewithoutthewritten permissionofCambridgeUniversityPress. Firstpublished2011 PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica AcatalogrecordforthispublicationisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary. LibraryofCongressCataloginginPublicationdata Arcticsecurityinanageofclimatechange/[editedby]JamesKraska. p. cm. Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex. isbn978-1-107-00660-7(hardback) 1.Arcticregions–Militarypolicy. 2.Security,International–Arcticregions. 3.Arcticregions–Strategicaspects. I.Kraska,James. ua880.a76 2011 355(cid:3).0335113–dc22 2011001952 isbn978-1-107-00660-7Hardback CambridgeUniversityPresshasnoresponsibilityforthepersistenceoraccuracyofurlsforexternalor third-partyInternetWebsitesreferredtointhispublicationanddoesnotguaranteethatanycontenton suchWebsitesis,orwillremain,accurateorappropriate. Theviewspresentedarethoseofthecontributorsanddonotreflecttheofficialpolicy orpositionoftheirinstitutionsorgovernments. ForKim,Olivia,andCaroline Contents ListofFiguresandTables pageix ContributorBiographies xi Foreword–ArcticFutures:ThePoliticsofTransformation x?x?i OranR.Young part i introduction: circumpolar perspectives 1 ArcticSecurity:TheIndirectApproach 3 FranklynGriffiths 2 TheChallengesandSecurityIssuesofArcticMarine Transport 20 LawsonW.Brigham 3 TheArcticMeltdownandItsImplicationforPortsand ShippinginAsia 33 JoshuaH.Ho part ii european security interests in the arctic 4 ArcticSecurityandNorway 47 RolfTamnes 5 NorwayandtheArctic:BetweenMultilateralGovernance andGeopolitics 64 GeirFlikke vii viii Contents 6 MilitaryAspectsofRussia’sArcticPolicy:HardPowerand NaturalResources 85 KatarzynaZysk 7 TheRussianArcticintheTwenty-FirstCentury 107 CaitlynL.Antrim 8 TheRiseoftheArcticontheGlobalStage 129 PauliJa¨rvenpa¨a¨ andTomasRies 9 TheArcticChallengetoDanishForeignandSecurityPolicy 145 NikolajPetersen 10 ArcticSecurity:AGreenlandicPerspective 166 AdamWorm 11 TerritorialDiscoursesandIdentityPolitics:Iceland’sRole intheArctic 174 ValurIngimundarson part iii north american security interests in the arctic 12 CanadaandtheNewlyEmergingInternationalArctic SecurityRegime 193 RobHuebert 13 PolarRaceorPolarSaga?CanadaandtheCircumpolar World 218 P.WhitneyLackenbauer 14 TheNewArcticGeographyandU.S.Strategy 244 JamesKraska 15 ArcticSecurityConsiderationsandtheU.S.Navy’s “ArcticRoadmap” 267 DavidW.TitleyandCourtneyC.St.John Afterword:AUnitedKingdomPerspectiveontheRoleofNavies inDeliveringArcticSecurity 281 LeeWillett Index 299 Figures and Tables figures 2.1. MarineRoutesintheArcticOceanandArcticRegion page24 2.2. Summer2009CommercialVoyagesalongtheNortheastPassage 30 6.1. RussianLong-Range-AviationBasingfortheArctic–PrimaryBases andForwardOperatingLocations 87 6.2. RussianLong-Range-AviationFlightsalongtheNorwegianCoastin 2006 88 6.3. RussianLong-Range-AviationFlightsalongtheNorwegianCoastin 2007 89 7.1. Mackinder’sGeographicPivotandtheIcySeas 109 7.2. TheSeas,Coastlines,andWatershedsofSiberia 112 10.1.LocationofGreenlandCommandUnits 170 13.1.GlobalBusinessNetworkFutureArcticMarineNavigation Matrix(2008) 229 15.1.DailyArcticSea-IceExtent,1979–2010 269 15.2.AverageMonthlyArcticSea-IceExtentSeptember,1979–2010 270 tables 6.1. TheRussianBallistic-MissileSubmarineFleet 92 7.1. ComparisonofSiberianRiverSystemswiththeMississippiRiver System 116 9.1. PotentialArcticTasksforDanishForeignandSecurityPolicy 153 ix