(Re)Conceptualizing Arctic Security Selected Articles from the Journal of Military and Security Studies Edited by P. Whitney Lackenbauer, Rob Huebert, and Ryan Dean (Re)Conceptualizing Arctic Security Selected Articles from the Journal of Military and Strategic Studies Edited by P. Whitney Lackenbauer, Ryan Dean, and Rob Huebert © The authors/editors 2017 2500 University Dr. N.W. Calgary, AB T2N 1N4 Tel: 403.220.4030 www.cmss.ucalgary.ca LIBRARY AND ARCHIVES CANADA CATALOGUING IN PUBLICATION (Re)Conceptualizing Arctic Security / edited by P. Whitney Lackenbauer, Ryan Dean, and Rob Huebert. Issued in electronic and print formats ISBN: 978-0-88953-413-1 (pdf) 978-0-88953-414-8 (paperback) 1. Arctic regions--Strategic aspects. 2. Security, International -- Arctic regions. 3. Arctic regions -- Military policy. 4. Arctic regions -- Strategic aspects. 5. Arctic Sovereignty. 6. Canada. Canadian Armed Forces— Arctic. 7. Canada, Northern--Strategic aspects. I. Lackenbauer, P. Whitney, editor II. Dean, Ryan, editor III. Huebert, Rob, editor IV. Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies, issuing body IV. (Re)Conceptualizing Arctic Security. Page design and typesetting by P. Whitney Lackenbauer Cover design by P. Whitney Lackenbauer and Ryan Dean Please consider the environment before printing this e-book Table of Contents Introduction “An Important International Crossroads” by i P. Whitney Lackenbauer and Rob Huebert 1. Regional Cooperation and Conflict Introduction by Rob Huebert 1 1.1: David Rudd, “Northern Europe’s Arctic Defence 13 Agenda,” JMSS 12:3 (2010) 1.2: Frédéric Lasserre, Jérôme Le Roy, Richard Garon, “Is There an Arms Race in the Arctic?” JMSS 14: 3&4 41 (2012) 1.3: Paal Sigurd Hilde, “The “New” Arctic: the Military 97 Dimension,” JMSS 15:2 (2013) 2. Canadian Security Approaches Introduction by Ryan Dean 115 2.1: P. Whitney Lackenbauer, “The Military as Nation Builder: The Case of the Canadian North,” JMSS 15:1 126 (2013) 2.2: Paul Dittmann, “In Defence of Defence: Canadian 158 Arctic Sovereignty and Security,” JMSS 11:3 (2009) 2.3: P. Whitney Lackenbauer and Adam Lajeunesse, “The Canadian Armed Forces in the Arctic: Building 214 Appropriate Capabilities,” JMSS 16:4 (2016) 3. The Northwest Passage Introduction by P. Whitney Lackenbauer and Suzanne 275 Lalonde 3.1: Eric Wang, “The Role of Canadian Armed Forces in 287 Defending Sovereignty,” JMSS 11:3 (2009) 3.2: Andrea Charron, “The Northwest Passage Shipping Channel: Sovereignty First and Foremost and 303 Sovereignty to the side,” JMSS 7:4 (2005) 3.3: James Cotter, “Developing a Coherent Plan to Deal with Canada’s Conundrum in the Northwest Passage,” 325 JMSS 11:3 (2009) 4. Resource Security Introduction by Adam Lajeunesse 365 4.1: Peter F. Johnston, “Arctic Energy Resources and 374 Global Energy Security,” JMSS 12:2 (2010) 4.2: Bent Ole Gram Mortensen, “The Quest for Resources 393 –the Case of Greenland,” JMSS 15:2 (2013) 4.3: Nils Wang, “Arctic Security -An Equation with 420 Multiple Unknowns,” JMSS 15:2 (2013) 5. Non-Arctic States Introduction by P. Whitney Lackenbauer 435 5.1: Andreas Østhagen, “The European Union – An Arctic 451 Actor?” JMSS 15:2 (2013) 5.2: David Curtis Wright, “China's Growing Interest in the 468 Arctic,” JMSS 15:2 (2013) 5.3: Timothy Curtis Wright, “China’s New Arctic Strategem: A Strategic Buyer’s Approach to the 483 Arctic,” JMSS 15:1 (2013) Introduction i Introduction: “An Important International Crossroads” P. Whitney Lackenbauer and Rob Huebert It has become almost pro forma to begin any book on the twenty-first century Arctic with a description of a region in transformation. The narrative begins with global climate change and the melting of ice-covered Arctic waters. This dynamic, in turn, unlocks access to previously frozen natural resources and trans-Arctic sea routes, thus presenting emerging economic opportunities – and concomitant security and safety risks. Given that both Arctic and non-Arctic states have vested interests in resources and transit routes, the circumpolar world is becoming more “international” than ever before. Packaged together, the heightened public interest in Arctic issues (spurred by intensifying media coverage) goes hand-in-hand with rising political interest in the region to produce complex geostrategic dynamics that continue to generate significant international attention, discussion, and debate. Climate change is undoubtedly at the top of the list of transformational forces. Prior to the 1990s, few imagined the possibility of an Arctic Ocean without ice cover. By the early 2000s, however, it had become evident that the Arctic was not only being affected by worldwide temperature increases, it was the most dramatically affected area on earth. Congruent with the international cooperation then prevalent in the region, the Arctic Council organized an extensive multi-year, multinational, and multi-disciplinary study of the impacts of climate change.1 Although it found that nearly every aspect of the Arctic was affected by the rising temperatures, the melting of the permanent ice cover elicited the most interest— and concern. A quick canvassing of the titles of some of the key books to appear over the last decade provides insight into some of the dominant frames or tropes in regular circulation to describe the changing circumpolar North.2 Melting ice, climate change, and the opening of the Arctic are reflected in such titles as After the Ice: Life, Death, and Geopolitics in the New Arctic; Arctic Opening: Insecurity and ii (Re)Conceptualizing Arctic Security Opportunity; and Arctic Security in an Age of Climate Change.3 The so-called race or scramble for the Arctic is evident in The Scramble for the Arctic: Ownership, Exploitation and Conflict in the Far North, Scramble for the Poles, The Arctic Gold Rush: The New Race for Tomorrow’s Natural Resources, and others like them.4 Titles such as Polar Imperative, The Fast-Changing Arctic, and Cold Front: Conflict Ahead in Arctic Waters emphasize the rapidity of change and urgency for stakeholders to take action.5 The contested nature of ownership features in Who Owns the Arctic?,6 while the need to defend Arctic jurisdiction frames studies such as Arctic Front: Defending Canada in the Far North.7 Still others adopt the lens of Arctic exceptionalism, framing the circumpolar North as a zone of peace and a territory of dialogue that is largely insulated from global political dynamics and thus is best considered through the lenses of stable regional governance, functional cooperation, and peaceful co-existence.8 While the term Arctic seems to describe an obvious geographical location, closer scrutiny almost always muddles the definitions.9 There is no agreement as to the where the terrestrial and maritime boundaries of the Arctic region begin or end. Efforts have been made to use physical attributes such as average temperatures or treeline, but these have their limitations when applied to human habitation. Simply adopting the Arctic Circle (66° north) as the boundary leaves out areas such as Iceland.10 Politically, the Arctic region has tended to be a self-described region in which Russia, Canada, United States, Denmark, Iceland, Finland, Norway, and Iceland see themselves as Arctic states. In the case of the United States, however, only a small part can be credibly considered “Arctic.”11 The definition of the Arctic Ocean is only slightly better understood, although most commentators agree that it is semi-enclosed by the northern limits of the North American and Eurasian land masses and is centered on the North Pole. In most discussion regarding the Arctic Ocean its marginal seas12 normally include Baffin Bay, Barents Sea, Beaufort Sea, Chukchi Sea, East Siberian Sea, Greenland Sea, Hudson Bay, Hudson Strait, Kara Sea, Laptev Sea, White Sea.13 The Northwest Passage (NWP)14 and the Northeast Passage (also known as the Northern Sea Route or NSR)15 also figure predominately in any discussion of the maritime zones of the Arctic.16 Both Canada and Russia regard these are internal waters while other countries such as the United States see them as international straits, thus making their legal status contentious. Suffice to say that there is no universal definition of the Arctic or its boundaries. Canadian commentators have similarly grappled with trying to define the Canadian Arctic. The shorthand political definition of North of 60 usually refers to Introduction iii the three northern territories of Nunavut, Northwest Territories, and Yukon,17 but this leaves out significant parts of the provincial norths that either extend beyond the 60th parallel or have climatological, physiographical, or human characteristics that warrant their consideration as Arctic spaces. Canada’s 2017 defence policy, Strong, Secure, Engaged, describes that: Spanning three Territories and stretching as far as the North Pole, Canada’s North is a sprawling region, encompassing 75 percent of the country’s national coastlines and 40 percent of its total land mass. The sheer expanse of Canada’s North, coupled with its ice-filled seas, harsh climate, and more than 36,000 islands make for a challenging region to monitor – particularly as the North encompasses a significant portion of the air and maritime approaches to North America. Although Canada’s North is sparsely populated, the region is spotted with vibrant communities, many inhabited by Canada’s Indigenous populations. These communities form an integral part of Canada’s identity, and our history is intimately connected with the imagery and the character of the North. Economically, Northern Canada is also home to considerable natural resources, industries, and growing tourism – with the potential for further exploration, including transit through Canada’s Arctic Archipelago. … The Arctic is also becoming more relevant to the international community. Climate change is increasingly leading to a more accessible Arctic region. While operating in the region will remain a difficult challenge for the foreseeable future, Arctic and non-Arctic states alike are looking to benefit from the potential economic opportunities associated with new resource development and transportation routes.18 In the Canadian case, longstanding preoccupations with Arctic sovereignty and security, northern Indigenous peoples, protecting the Arctic environment, and promoting regional development have framed Canada’s Northern strategies since the 1970s. The challenge remains in discerning the right balance between conventional sovereignty and defence threats, “soft” security and safety challenges, and socio-economic, political, and environmental priorities. Vigorous academic debates about Canada’s Arctic security posture grapple with both domestic and international dimensions – and many dynamics that that transcend both categories. This book showcases selected articles on Arctic security published by the Journal of Military and Strategic Studies (JMSS) over the last decade. Five sections address a different sector of Arctic: 1) Geopolitics, Security, and the Changing iv (Re)Conceptualizing Arctic Security Arctic; 2) Canadian Security; 3) the Northwest Passage; 4) Energy Security and Resources; 5) and Non-Arctic States. By situating Canadian discussions in broader circumpolar and global contexts, the chapters in this volume provide insights into how climate change, changes in governance systems, increased shipping (and the prospect of much more), energy and mineral development, Arctic states’ expanding military presence, and growing non-Arctic state interests are interacting to create a complex, evolving Arctic security environment. Climate Change and Arctic Transformation For a long time, most commentators who did not actually reside in the Arctic viewed the region as an inaccessible and forbidding location of stark beauty and extreme climate. This was not true, however, for Inuit and other northern Indigenous peoples who call the Arctic home. Beginning in the late fifteenth century, European explorers’ longstanding efforts to “find” the Northeast and Northwest Passages, coupled with later attempts to reach the North Pole, generated popular interest amongst non-Arctic peoples in a region that often conformed to the Romantic and Victorian aesthetics of the Arctic sublime – of human bodies encountering hostile environments, terrifying creatures, and deadly danger – as well as empty, picturesque landscapes.19 Much of the Arctic remained unexplored by “southerners” through to the Second World War, leaving the Arctic to exist in splendid isolation from the rest of the international system. This sitatuion has changed. At the end of the Cold War, countries such as Canada and Finland devoted extensive energy to creating new bodies to improve circumpolar cooperation, particularly to respond to transboundary environmental challenges identified in the 1980s and early 1990s.20 Major new governance mechanisms took shape, including the Arctic Environmental Protection Strategy (AEPS) initiated in 199121 and the Arctic Council created in 1996.22 Recognizing the special role played by northern Indigenous peoples, both bodies created the position of permanent participants—a status that was both innovative and ground- breaking, transcending traditional diplomat boundaries and ensuring that Northern Indigenous peoples have had a central voice in addressing Arctic change. Early in the 1990s, scientists noted how climate change was leading to dramatic melting of the sea ice covering the Arctic Ocean. Over the following decade, rising awareness of the amplified impacts of global warming on the polar regions drew widespread attention to the Arctic as a barometer of climate change. With reduced Introduction v ice cover, commentators also suggested that the opening of the Arctic would allow for the discovery and exploitation of new energy and mineral resources. Furthermore, observers proclaimed a transformation of the region from a theatre of superpower tension during the Cold War to one of promising cooperation. These complex changes -- climate, resource development, and geopolitics -- point to a transformation of epic proportions. The Arctic Ocean has remained ice covered for as long as humans have observed it. Initial studies undertaken in the late 1990s, however, began to suggest that the Arctic Ocean would become ice free in summer sometimes towards the end of the 2000s and possibly around 2090.23 This estimate is now considered incorrect, with current scientific studies of the rate of melting anticipating a summer ice-free Arctic in the mid–2020s to 2030s. 24 The ocean will continue to refreeze in the winter months given the nature of the earth’s tilt, but this ice will be first-year ice as opposed to the multiyear or permanent ice cover that has persisted in the Arctic for millennia. This opens up the possibility of increased maritime traffic. 25 The Arctic impacts of global warming go beyond maritime navigation. Climate change affects Indigenous peoples’ ways of life, from hunting and fishing to community safety and resiliency.26 The flora and fauna of the region are also being dramatically affected. There is a growing concern that one of the most enigmatic symbols of the Arctic—the polar bear—may face a dire future,27 while new species, such as orcas (killer whales) and bees, have been expanding their range into the Arctic. 28 There is also a growing debate about the possibility that fish populations from southern latitudes may move northward into Arctic waters.29 While there is a considerable disagreement within the scientific community as to whether this will lead to a viable international Arctic fishery, the prospect led the five Arctic coastal states, as well as China, Japan, South Korea, the European Union (EU), and Iceland, to sign an agreement in November 2017 to prevent commercial fishing in the central Arctic Ocean beyond national jurisdiction.30 Geopolitics, Security, and the Changing Arctic The Arctic’s geographical location between two of the most powerful states in the international system has placed it at the center of any discussion of international security since the end of the Second World War. Throughout the Cold War it remained one of the most important operational theaters for the Soviet Union, the United States, and their respective allies, and it held a central position in the