Arctic Resilience Report 2016 AleutianB ISeslreiaanngds POACCEIAFINC PetropaKvalomvcskh-atKkaamchatskyOSkehao tosfk Gulf of Amur Alaska Koryaks Anchorage viRer Anadyr Mts. LSaaskkatechew.anR NoArtthRhaobwcLaaGksekcyrsaeeC NtMa tAu ToSLuenlNaanrakvrteevaiAtuinotDsYreMillAeoJauwcsTnekkesnealiinufneMMziaoeuc GLWknRaVerthIiekanisvitiaeczneelitathesr ooBDnrrasdeiweaaInsrouAnvBlIiaksFsaalkainar bnkRaadnsngeksBBreoYoSaukPkesurA ouna fRd(oLahrUnoCtAgeBae SBaSnasAayKidnB)aaArrowCBhSSeuterrkaiacnihtgAOiRCCETWIAslIraNanCndgSelKi bESoleaeyrsmaitaSain bMNIseeolrawiuann ndK t aso ilnymsa RLivaSepretaeTviksVierkhChoeVryseakry nkRasnhgekoyaenLgsnke aRna RiverYakutsk SCUiebpnelatrrinaadnl Lake Baikal WJaBmianyenQLsiapubeégrabCdehoucrHrchuBPildUlaesnynoignnaAsvurvalia aHtRSuatndrkasiniot nInBIFqleaSDaotslNxtuaireainvatuNiijsatuBtuakffin SIslisanidmiutBBaRefaIAlsfuymiolnilmsustaeastGsaRl(iEk EDlIlseEQElasaaNmNnnLadeMarAqeANRDAKle)Arltpha LRoimdogneoJMsaoaMnv yGBNeAaRarinaSkFnmedssauStreegriaBnnrnenae-aodmsaGlsiivaatenknnkedlN BRiadaLngoseSs(niNTeVngrynoOAemLRBasBrWjbøøAyrAneRnYøDy)NaLaoFJLnBroraPtadsanheSneKrndeezfoiannlatsMsuNouvlayara mZeTmaaWlnyimASaskrhyekrKih aNStPaaaeeeAnnrrYRaiygnaaCaesTumnlIslaC- kNaMC Il.S aR PCaDrLeVlEvenoiknirnhkasuauNtraldoarSiYlOyseUkkbntry aivsRl keMiaSyvorP uFieRePWnbrritmalvKEeiaeaenmRrasrs iDRiKivneItrarhUtyaEnshntSyR-MSOaAbn IsRTiyAisvkIeNrON Reykjavik ISFLAARNODES ToNrsoharvSwneeagian NORWAY WEDEN FINLAHNeDlsinki SLLtaa. kdPLOeeoatngekeraesgbaurg Moscow Volga River (DENMARK) Oslo S ATLANTIC Stockholm OCEAN North Sea Baltic Copenhagen Sea DENMARK Arctic Resilience Report 2016 First published in 2016 by the Stockholm Environment Institute and the Stockholm Resilience Centre Project Director: Marcus Carson, Stockholm Environment Institute Scientific Coordinator: Garry Peterson, Stockholm Resilience Centre Project Manager: Claudia Strambo, Stockholm Environment Institute Project Secretariat: Sarah Cornell, Miriam Huitric, Annika Nilsson, Juan Carlos Rocha Executive Editors: Marcus Carson and Garry Peterson Language Editors: Marion Davis and Tom Gill, Stockholm Environment Institute Proofreading: Elaine Beebe Design and layout: Tyler Kemp-Benedict and Richard Clay Image research: Claudia Strambo Graphics: Hugo Ahlenius, Nordpil Cover credits Front cover Reindeer: © Erika Larsen erikalarsenphoto.com, from collection: Sámi – Walking With Reindeer, used by permission Tromsø, Norway polar night: © Mariusz Kluzniak (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0) NASA satellites see Santa’s North Pole June 30, 2011: NASA/GSFC/Jeff Schmaltz/MODIS Land Rapid Response Team Inside front cover Map of the Arctic region ©Hugo Ahlenius, nordpil.com Created with data from: Natural Earth Project. 2011. Natural Earth version 1.3. Retrieved February 3, 2011, from http://www. naturalearthdata.com/downloads Patterson, T. 2006. CleanTOPO2 3D. Retrieved November 5, 2010, from http://www.shadedrelief.com/cleantopo2/ Printing: Danagårds Litho This publication should be cited as: Arctic Council (2016). Arctic Resilience Report. M. Carson and G. Peterson (eds). Stockholm Environment Institute and Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm. http://www. arctic-council.org/arr. Individual chapters should be cited by chapter author/s. Contact information Arctic Resilience Assessment Secretariat Stockholm Environment Institute and Stockholm Resilience Centre Email: [email protected] Website: http://www.arctic-council.org/arr © Arctic Council 2016 ISBN: 978-91-86125-45-5 ii The Arctic Resilience Assessment (ARA) is an Arctic Council project led by the Stockholm Environment Institute and the Stockholm Resilience Centre. It builds on collaboration with Arctic countries and Indigenous Peoples in the region, as well as several Arctic scientific organizations. The ARA (previously Arctic Resilience Report) was approved as an Arctic Council project at the Senior Arctic Officials meeting in November 2011. The ARA was initiated by the Swedish Ministry of the Environment as a priority for the Swedish Chairmanship of the Arctic Council (May 2011 to May 2013) and is being delivered under the US Chairmanship of the Arctic Council. Project Steering Committee (PSC) The ARA project is governed by a Project Steering Committee, which consists of representatives of Arctic Council Member States, Permanent Participants and Working Groups, as well as representatives of collaborating organizations. Members of the steering committee are listed below. Co-Chairs Representatives of Collaborating Organizations Joel Clement – Office of Policy Analysis, and Arctic Council Observers US Department of the Interior Nicolaj Bock – European Environment Agency Johan Rockström – Stockholm Resilience Centre David Hik – International Arctic Science Committee Tatiana Vlasova – International Arctic Social Science Representatives of Member States and Permanent Association Participants Bruce C. Forbes – Arctic Centre, University of Lapland David Murray – Canada Urban Wråkberg – University of the Arctic Mark Nuttall – Denmark Gary Kofinas – Resilience Alliance Outi Mähönen – Finland Johan L. Kuylenstierna – Stockholm Environment Níels Einarsson – Iceland Institute Kim Holmén – Norway Martin Sommerkorn – WWF Global Arctic Evgeny Syroechkovskiy – Russian Federation Programme Marianne Lilliesköld, Tove Lundeberg – Sweden James Gamble – Aleut International Association Cindy Dickson – Arctic Athabaskan Council Grant Sullivan, Joseph Linklater, Amy Thompson – Gwich’in Council International Stephanie Meakin – Inuit Circumpolar Council (Canada) Dmitry Berezhkov – Russian Association of Indigenous Peoples of the North, Siberia and Far East Svein D. Mathiesen – Saami Council Representatives of Arctic Council Working Groups Ann-Sofi Israelson – Arctic Contaminants Action Programme Jon L. Fuglestad, Lars-Otto Reiersen – Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme Tom Barry – Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna Soffía Guðmundsdóttir – Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment Doug Klassen – Sustainable Development Working Group of the Arctic Council iii Contributing experts Regime shifts authors Abdelrahim, Sarah – US Department of the Interior Steven Alexander, Sara Andersson, Reinette Biggs, Amundsen, Helene – Centre for International Climate Thorsten Blencker, Lara Dominguez, Hannah and Environmental Research Griffiths, Katharina Fryers Hellquist, Elinor Holén, Behe, Carolina – Inuit Circumpolar Council, Alaska Linn Järnberg, Sophie Laggan, Noah Linder, Linda Bickford, Annette – York University, Toronto Lindström, Katja Malmborg, Susa Niiranen, Hening Blom, Anders – Protect Sápmi Nolzen, Daniel Ospina, Rolands Sadauskis, Karl Carson, Marcus – Stockholm Environment Institute Samuelsson, Albinus Søgaard, Jessica Spijkers, Patricia Chapin, F. Stuart III – University of Alaska Fairbanks Villarrubia Gomez, Johanna Yletinen Clark, Douglas – University of Saskatchewan Clement, Joel – US Department of the Interior Case study authors Cornell, Sarah – Stockholm Resilience Centre Hanna Ahlström, Rawaf Al Rawaf, Derek Armitage, Downing, Andrea – Stockholm Resilience Centre Dag Avango, Svetlana Avelova, Heather Bell, Adrian Forbes, Bruce – Arctic Centre, University of Lapland Braun, Clara Burgard, Christopher Cosgrove, Daniele Fresco Nancy – University of Alaska Fairbanks Crimella, Enoil de Sousa Júnior, Anna Degteva, Lara Gamble, Jim, – Aleut International Association Dominguez, Níels Einarsson, Viktoriia Filippova, Goodwin, Willie – Arctic Waterways Safety Committee Melanie Flynn, Jonas Gren, Hannah Griffiths, Gustav / Beluga Whale Committee Grusell, Larry Hamilton, Elin Högström, Elinor Holén, Gunn, Anne – CircumArctic Collaboration to Monitor Henry P. Huntington, Hanna Linnéa Kylin, Matilda Caribou and Wild Reindeer Lenell, Katrin Lindbäck, Linda Lindström, Cornelia Hovelsrud, Grete K. – Nord University Ludwig, Tobias Luthe, Katja Malmborg, Svein D. Huitric, Miriam – Stockholm Resilience Centre Mathiesen, Viveca Mellegård, Yasir Muhammad, Tero Kelman, Ilan – University College of London/ Mustonen, George Noongwook, Julia Olsen, Roweena University of Agder Patel, Aliaksei Patonia, Shealagh Pope, Kaitlyn Kofinas, Gary – University of Alaska Fairbanks Rathwell, Fernando Remolina, Stine Rybråten, Carmen Koivurova, Timo – Arctic Centre, University of Lapland Seco Pérez, Nikolas Sellheim, Philipp Siegel, Jessica Lefevre, Jessica – Alaska Eskimo Whaling Commission/ Spijkers, Dries Stevens, Andrea Utas, Lize-Marié van Arctic Waterways Safety Committee der Watt, Liliia Vinokurova, Kate Williman, Alexander Lovecraft, Amy Lauren – University of Alaska Winkler, Alla Yurova. Fairbanks Mathiesen, Svein D. – Arctic Institute for Circumpolar Reviewers Reindeer Husbandry Thomas Axworthy – InterAction Council and Public McGovern, Thomas H. – Hunter College, The City Policy Chair, Massey College, University of Toronto University of New York Fikret Berkes – University of Manitoba McLennan, Donald – Polar Knowledge Canada Annette Bickford – York University, Toronto Meek, Chanda L. – University of Alaska Fairbanks Anne-Sophie Crépin – Beijer Institute of Ecological Mustonen, Tero – SnowChange Economics and Stockholm Resilience Centre Nilsson, Annika E. – Stockholm Environment Institute Gail Fondhal – University of Northern British Perl, Ashley – Stockholm Resilience Centre Columbia Peterson, Garry – Stockholm Resilience Centre Willie Goodwin – Arctic Waterways Safety Committee/ Petrov, Andrey, N. – University of Northern Iowa Beluga Whale Committee Prior, Tahnee – Balsillie School of International Affairs Henry Huntington – Huntington Consulting Quinlan, Allyson – Carleton University Ilan Kelman – University College of London and Rocha, Juan Carlos – Stockholm Resilience Centre University of Agder Sellheim, Nikolas Arctic Centre – University of Lapland Jessica Lefevre – Alaska Eskimo Whaling Commission/ Sommerkorn, Martin – WWF Arctic Programme Arctic Waterways Safety Committee Strambo, Claudia – Stockholm Environment Institute Nathanael Melia – PDRA, Department of Meteorology, Veazey, Alice – University of Alaska Fairbanks University of Reading Yurova, Alla – Nansen International Environmental and Egbert van Nes – Wageningen University Remote Sensing Centre and Saint Petersburg State James Overland – National Oceanic and Atmospheric University Administration (Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory) Gunn-Britt Retter – Saami Council Adam Stepien – Arctic Centre, University of Lapland John Walsh – University of Alaska Fairbanks Paul Wassman – The Arctic University of Norway iv Acknowledgements We gratefully acknowledge the financial support provided to this project from: the Swedish Environ- mental Protection Agency, the Swedish Research Council (Formas), the Nordic Council of Ministers, the US Department of the Interior and the US Geological Survey. We also thank our collaborating partners for their support and vital contributions to the development of this report: the University of the Arctic; International Arctic Science Committee’s programme on the International Study of Arctic Change; the International Arctic Social Science Association; the European Environment Agency; and the WWF Global Arctic Programme. We would also like to express our appreciation for supplemental financing for the project. The US Arctic Research Commission generously covered travel expenses to enable participation in the June 2015 participatory workshop. We also wish to extend a special thanks to WWF; the University of Alaska Fairbanks; the University of Saskatchewan; the Arctic Centre, University of Lapland; Nord University; the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO); and Balsillie School of International Affairs for supporting the efforts of lead authors at their respec- tive institutions or organizations. We also thank those institutions that supported the work of the contributing authors. We would also like to thank Volker Rachold and the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC) for organizing the formal peer review process for the report, as well as the many reviewers whose feed- back was indispensible for ensuring the accuracy and quality of the report. The process organized by IASC was carried out as a blind peer review. However, we have acknowledged by name the reviewers who did not feel it necessary to remain anonymous subsequent to providing their reviews. Several additional reviewers were also enlisted during the course of the work to supplement and strengthen specific chapters, including reviewers from the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme. Finally, we would like to thank Erika Larsen for generously providing access to photos from her project “Sámi: The People Who Walk with Reindeer”. To learn more about the project, visit http:// www.erikalarsenphoto.com/works/sami-walking-with-reindeer/. v Table of Contents Acknowledgements v Foreword viii Arctic Resilience Report Executive Summary ix Glossary of terms xvii Humans in Nature – Arctic Social-Ecological Systems PART I 1 CHAPTER 1 An Arctic Resilience Assessment 2 Key Messages 2 1.1 What’s new about Arctic change? 3 1.2 Resilience 5 1.3 A systems perspective 9 1.4 Feedbacks: proximity, cascades and co-evolution 14 1.5 Navigating Arctic change 19 1.6 Overview of the report 22 References 23 CHAPTER 2 Multiple Arctics: Resilience in a region of diversity and dynamism 27 Key Messages 27 2.1 One Arctic, or many? 28 2.2 Recognizing resilience 32 2.3 Multiple Arctics, shared responsibility 46 References 54 The Drama of Change PART II 63 CHAPTER 3 Arctic regime shifts and resilience 64 Key messages 64 3.1 What’s new in the Arctic 65 3.2 Regime shifts 66 3.3 Arctic regime shifts 67 3.4 Response options 85 3.5 Impacts of Arctic regime shifts outside the Arctic 89 3.6 Enhancing understanding of regime shifts 89 CHAPTER 4 What factors build or erode resilience in the Arctic? 96 Key messages 96 4.1 Introduction 97 4.2 Comparing case studies across the Arctic 99 4.3 How the case studies were coded and analysed 111 4.4 Case studies and cross-scale dynamics 117 4.5 Implications of the resilience assessment 120 4.6 Lessons for supporting Arctic resilience 121 vi The Policy Context: Shaping Change PART III 127 CHAPTER 5 Shared decision-making in a changing Arctic political landscape 128 Key Messages 128 5.1 Introduction and aim of the chapter 129 5.2 Deliberately shaping change: “governance” in social-ecological systems 129 5.3 The changing context for governing in the Arctic 132 5.4 Connectivity across scales and space 138 5.5 Deliberate choices: summary and conclusions 143 References 144 CHAPTER 6 Learning to live with change 147 Key Messages 147 6.1 Introduction 148 6.2 Case examples 148 6.3 Discussion 154 6.4 Summary and conclusions 159 References  160 Building Resilience for Responding to Change PART IV 163 CHAPTER 7 Building capacity to adapt to and shape change 164 Key messages 164 7.1 Resilience, adaptive capacity, and the Arctic Council 165 7.2 Facets of adaptive and transformative capacity 166 7.3 The Arctic Council’s role in strengthening adaptive capacity 172 7.4 Conclusion and knowledge gaps 176 CHAPTER 8 Building resilience in the Arctic: From theory to practice 180 Key Messages 180 8.1 Introduction 181 8.2 Resilience definitions and their implications 183 8.3 Principles for applying resilience theory 183 8.4 Cross-cutting heuristics 185 8.5 Practices for building resilience 189 8.6 From resilience theory to practice: Looking ahead 202 References 203 Appendices 209 vii Foreword Life in the Arctic has always been defined by change and uncertainty. The seasons transform the land- scape, the weather is unpredictable, and conditions can shift abruptly, sometimes dangerously. Yet the Arctic is now changing at an unprecedented pace, on multiple levels, in ways that fundamentally affect both people and ecosystems. This report is the culmination of a five-year effort to better understand the nature of Arctic change, including critical tipping points, as well as the factors that support resilience, and the kinds of choices that strengthen adaptive capacity. Because local changes are nested in larger-scale processes, it is especially important that interactions across scales are better understood. Resilience features prominently in three major international agreements reached in 2015: the Sus- tainable Development Goals, the Paris Agreement on climate change, and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. The Paris Agreement alone mentions resilience six times, recognizing that climate change impacts already in the pipeline will require both humans and nature to adapt. The changes happening in the Arctic today are driven primarily by external factors. Climate change is the most pervasive and powerful driver of change, but many other environmental changes are taking place as well, alongside rapid social and economic developments. In some contexts, factors such as resource demand, transportation needs, migration, geopolitical changes and globalization are making the greatest impact on the Arctic. Indeed, many Arctic social-ecological systems face multiple stressors at once. Slowing Arctic change and building resilience are thus crucial for the people and ecosystems of the Arctic – but the report also highlights the stakes for the world as a whole. Arctic social and bio- physical systems are deeply intertwined with our planet’s social and biophysical systems, so rapid, dramatic and unexpected changes in this sensitive region are likely to be felt elsewhere. As we are often reminded, what happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the Arctic. The Arctic Resilience Report is the final output of a process set in motion at the start of the Swed- ish Chairmanship of the Arctic Council (2011–2013). The project has been led by the Stockholm Environment Institute and the Stockholm Resilience Centre, in collaboration with the Resilience Alliance. It has been pursued in consultation with Arctic countries and Indigenous Peoples, and has included collaboration with several Arctic scientific organizations. An integral part of the assessment is to identify policy and management options that may be needed for strengthening resilience, for adaptation, and for transformational change when this is necessary. We hope this work will inform, inspire and lay the groundwork for collaborative action. Johan Rockström Joel Clement Executive Director Director Stockholm Resilience Centre Office of Policy Analysis, Co-chair of the ARR Project US Department of the Interior Steering Committee Co-chair of the ARR Project Steering Committee viii