Aquaculture 2020 Transcending the Barriers – as long as... Large-scale programmes Aquaculture 2020 Transcending the Barriers – as long as… A Foresight Analysis © The Research Council of Norway 2005 The Research Council of Norway PO Box 2700 St.Hanshaugen NO-0131 Oslo Telephone:+47 22 03 70 00 Telefax:+47 22 03 70 01 The publication can be ordered at: http://www.forskningsradet.no/bibliotek/publikasjonsdatabase/ Or toll-free telefax number:800 83 001 Internet:[email protected] X.400: S=bibliotek;PRMD=forskningsradet;ADMD=telemax;C=no Website:http://www.rcn.no Translated by:Diane Oatley Graphic design:Making waves AM /as Photo/ill.cover:Vidar Vassvik Layoutand print:Printhouse as Number issued:1000 Oslo,January 2005 ISBN printedition 82-12-02025-8 ISBN electronic edition (pdf) 82-12-02026-6 2 Foreword Aquaculture is one of the seven large-scale programmes established by the Research Council of Norway. Large-scale programmes are an importantnew initiative towards realising central research-policy priorities and shall be developed through extensive dialogue within and between research communities,users and the public authorities. In the autumn of 2003 the Research Council invited the aquaculture industry,the research communities and the public authorities to take partin a broadly focused future-oriented dialogue,a foresightanalysis aboutNorwegian aquaculture,Aquaculture 2020.The initiative was received with considerable intereston the partof institutions and individuals.A total of 70 persons took partin four gatherings where some 150 mini-scenarios and five more complex scenarios were developed and one arrived atstrategic recommenda- tions and initiatives directed towards research,the public authorities,and trade and industry. The mini-scenarios and the scenarios in Aquaculture 2020 representa setof differentand hopefully interesting perspectives on the potential condition of Norwegian aquaculture in 2020.The scenarios also attemptto explain thatwhich has taken place along the way. To carry outthis process,the Research Council appointed the following projectgroup: Rolf Giskeødegård (ProjectManager),Research Council of Norway Magny Thommassen,Norwegian University of Life Sciences/Chairman of Board Aquaculture Programme Kathrine Angell-Hansen,Ministry of Fisheries and Coastal Affairs Harald Sveier,Ewos Innovation AS / Norwegian Seafood Federation (FHL) Aquaculture R&D committee Kjell Maroni,Norwegian Seafood Federation (FHL) Aquaculture / Fishery and Aquaculture Research Fund (FHF) Svein Hallbjørn Steien,Innovation Norway Lars Horn,Research Council of Norway Erik F.Øverland,Research Council of Norway Lars A.Ødegaard,Research Council of Norway NIFU STEP was engaged to manage the secretariatfunction.NIFU STEP also had the role of a professional impetus in the process.From NIFU STEP participants were:Finn Ørstavik and Åge Mariussen.The methodo- logical programme in connection with the Foresightanalysis was the responsibility of Erik F.Øverland. In the reportthe projectgroup presents the foresightanalysis of the aquaculture industry.The reportis made up of three parts:Part1:Analysis and recommendations,written by Finn Ørstavik.Part2:Process and experiences,written by Erik Øverland.In the Appendixes are the materials produced in the gatherings along with the start-up documentand a listof all those who took partin one or more of the gatherings. The projecthas been carried outthrough collaboration between the Research Council of Norway and Innovation Norway.We would like to take this opportunity to thank all those who have taken partin the process and contributed to the creative discussions.Thank you very much! Because of you,long work sessi- ons were made exciting and humorous.We walk away with an impression of many people having been involved and thatwe have interacted in an exciting arena! Oslo,september 2004 ProjectGroup 3 Contents: Part1: Analysis and Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 The Future Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Main Themes in the Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Central Research Challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 The ProjectGroup’s Summary and Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Del 2: Process and Experiences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Pointof Departure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Organisation,roles and assignments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 Gathering 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Gathering 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 Gathering 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 Gathering 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 Summing up of experiences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 Appendixes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 The aquaculture of the future – start-up memorandum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 Mini-scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 Strategic recommendations and initiatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143 Listof participants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163 Part 1 Analysis and Recommendations 1 Photo preceding page from left: Illustration: Making Waves AM Edelpix Pia Kupka Hansen Gunnar Grytås Norwegian Seafood Export Council Introduction sons from companies,instances of authority and research and education communities work together The Research Council of Norway has invited resource to try and create visions of the future,of whatthe individuals from the aquaculture industry,from the situation could be for a given industry in a few years, public sector and from the research communities to and how the developmentcan lead us there. look to the future:How will Norwegian aquaculture Through this work,one can focus upon and develop a activities develop? Whatis required for a positive dialogue aboutthe future and aboutwhatcould be future development? Whattypes of measures must expedientfuture strategies.This creates the opportu- be carried outwithin trade and industry,what nity for fruitful collaboration thatwould notcome should the public authorities do – and whatcan abouton its own within the situation in which the research communities contribute? In this document actors find themselves daily. we summarise the main results from the process. In 2003 and 2004,the Research Council of The results are not– and cannotbe – scientific ans- Norway carried outa foresightprocess for the wers.Butthey contribute to directing attention Aquaculture sector.Itwas entitled "Foresight towards many of the mostcentral issues.Through Aquaculture 2020" and was the firstlarge endeavour an unorthodox and creative treatmentof important of this nature atthe Research Council.The process questions,the foresightprocess generates material was carried outby a projectgroup of representatives to work with for all those seeking to find answers from trade and business,research and government. for how the aquaculture industry shall succeed in In order to arrive atthe desired transverse connecti- becoming a knowledge-intensive,sustainable and ons,the projectgroup thatran the foresightprocess profitable future industry in Norway. did a number of things: • Qualified persons from trade and industry were ForesightAquaculture 2020 invited to take partfrom the very start. Research has played a big partin the aquaculture industry and will continue to play an importantrole in the future.Atthe same time,itis clear thatrese- Excerptfrom the scenario "Sustainability" arch in itself cannotsolve all problems.In order to Norwegian aquaculture has today (2020) managed thatwhich few believed was possible.In spite of incre- bear fruit,the investmentof research mustfirstof all asingly obvious climate changes,global warming and be coordinated with the strategies for business and high average temperature in the ocean from the trade developmentestablished in trade and industry, Western Norwegian coast all the way up into and atthe public level.Secondly,research from diffe- Helgeland,we have a thriving and sustainable indus- try,with products thatare more in demand than ever. rentfields mustbe connected and enriched "trans- The increase in ocean temperature has for a long time versely".Jointaction on the partof technological and led to,among other things,premature sexual maturi- professional fields such as ICT,materials technology, ty and disease.The extreme weather conditions biotechnology and social and marketresearch can during the winter season have on the other hand,con- tributed to the lowering of the average temperature contribute new and importantknowledge and stra- in the ocean during the winter in Nord-Troms and tegic solutions for the developmentof aquaculture. Finnmark.We have witnessed frequentand powerful The contributions of various actors should be cor- storms,which have resulted in an increased risk of related;initiatives mustbe reasonable,notonly in farm wreck and fugitive fish.Around 2010,the climate changes and question of using resources in a sustai- terms of own internal developmental logic,butalso nable fashion became a central question in the worl- in terms of the strategies for change and develop- d’s food programme and in fighting starvation – since mentcarried outby others.In this lies both an obli- large areas along the equator were in the process of gation in the relation between the actors in the becoming infertile and parched.Itis toward the oce- ans thatthe world has now directed its attention.The industry itself,and also an obligation in terms of kee- environment,sustainability,and combating starvati- ping a focus directed upon the markets and the on are today atthe top of the global agenda,along developmentthattakes place among consumers,in with new and more long-term environmental chal- trade and industry and atthe public level in the lenges thatwill be of decisive significance in the peri- od leading up to 2050.Ithas become clear thatgood countries comprising the largestexportmarkets for monitoring systems and moderate regulations are not the Norwegian industry. enough.One has begun to speak of the melting of the Itis in recognition of this thatthe Research poles,decreasing temperatures and the ceased move- Council of Norway has implemented foresighttech- mentof the Gulf Stream.How can we produce good quality products in a manner thatcounteracts or con- niques as a tool in the task of developing large rese- structively addresses this development? arch programmes.In such processes,qualified per- 7 Representatives of research communities were Excerptfrom the scenario "MarketWith No also invited,butnotuntil a little later,and notin Frontiers" such numbers thatthey would "drown out" the The fish farming industry was shaken up by a series of bankruptcies in many of the central companies in representatives from trade and industry. 2005-2006.These bankruptcies were due to the mis- taken belief that a profitable manufacture of new • Professionals from adjacent,potentially relevant species could be based on the same process techno- professional fields and areas of activity were logy as in salmon farming. It proved necessary to invited to take part.(People from outside the develop entirely new concepts for process technolo- "congregation".) This implied e.g.persons from gy.Only in this way was it possible to realise long- the food industry,from advertising,from term production planning,large volumes,standardi- sation of high quality and low unit costs. A large idealistic organisations and areas of technology knowledge hole was discovered here which took a such as information and communication long time to climb outof. technology and materials technology. Production of farmed cod and niche production of species other than salmon took place through a long-term public investmentfor the entire period of • The process was focused on all participants using 2005 to 2020. A significant breakthrough was the their competence,butthatthey should simultan- establishment of Statfisk in 2005 – based on the eously address freely and imaginatively the Statoil model. Statfisk received 49 percent public future perspectives thatwere developed.Itwas a capital (NOK 10 billion) from the Petroleum Fund. matter of notallowing the thoughtprocesses to This strategic measure laid the foundation for the development of a whole new innovation system. getlocked into fixed truths (and new research Eventually, the large companies realised that their results on the situation today) butinstead to most important competitive advantage was know- strive for flexible and imaginative perspectives on ledge about the new process technology that they the future.There was no requirementfor the developed in collaboration with Statfisk.This know- ideas to be probable,and no proposal was to be ledge-driven strategy was the key to their succeeding in establishing themselves with production in many rejected on the basis of being "stupid". parts of the world,in enterprises run from Norway.A partnership between the universities and the In this documentthe results of this "visionary exer- government – organised through Statfisk – was a cise" are presented.In the following,we present wholly decisive condition to success. central perspectives and some of the many exciting Effective processes have proven to be the most importantof three decisive criteria for survival in the ideas thatwere developed throughoutthe process. global foodstuff market.All links in the production The presentation does notpretend to be a com- chain are highly automated and subordinated to prehensive or a scientific perspective analysis.The regimes for long-term industrial process planning. topic is the future,or more precisely,a number of The other decisive advantage thatmade itpos- conceivable,alternative futures.The presentation sible for Norway to maintain its position on the glo- bal food article marketwas the nature-given advan- here is intended to contribute to creating a better tage of coastal regions.The industry has an extreme- basis for the programme developmentwork to be ly strong position with regard to administration and done atthe Research Council of Norway in 2004 and area use along the coast. 2005 for the Aquaculture sector.We therefore focus The third criterion is adaptation to the industry’s to a considerable extentalso on the effortthatwill structure and organisation in relation to the require- ments of the global market. The production takes be necessary on the partof trade and industry and place according to detailed specifications from the the public authorities in order for the research to pro- food product chains, which are extremely deman- vide the concrete contribution to industrial develop- ding customers.These demanding customers how- mentand added-value needed within aquaculture. ever refrain from integrating the primary manufac- The analytical motifs we have developed here turers through ownership.Independent Norwegian manufacturers therefore run primary manufacture shall contribute to situating the thinking aboutfutu- and a portion of processing.Their structure and com- re research investmentwithin a broader context.And position is adapted to a market controlled by the previous research efforts,documented for instance in buyers.Large-scale operation is thus a criterion crucial the STEP-reportaboutthe innovation system in to survival. aquaculture industry from 2002 and inlater works,1 1 Aslesen,H.W.,Å.Mariussen etal.(2002).The Innovation System in the Norwegian Aquaculture Industry.Oslo,STEP. More recentworks include:Ørstavik,F.(2004).Knowledge spillovers,Innovation and Cluster formation:The case of Norwegian Aquaculture.In:Knowledge Spillovers and Knowledge Management.C.Karlsson,P.Flensburg and S.Hörte. London,Edvard Elgar. 8