01_JEAS_9.3_Roundtable.qxd 10/8/09 2:49 PM Page 337 Journal of East Asian Studies 9 (2009), 337–368 Roundtable Discussion of Jennifer Lind’s Sorry States: Apologies in International Politics Charles L. Glaser, Thomas U. Berger, Mike M. Mochizuki, and Jennifer Lind How can Japan put its past behind? Scholars, journalists, and activists fre- quently argue that Japan cannot solve its “history problem” unless it follows West Germany’slead in offering contrition for World War II violence. Into this debate, Jennifer Lind’s Sorry States: Apologies in International Politics offers an original and provocative contribution. Lind argues that while countries should acknowledge past atrocities, frequent public apologies can be domesti- cally polarizing and diplomatically counterproductive. Sorry Statesoutlines a theory of remembrance and threat perception and tests it in a comparative study of Japanese–South Korean and Franco-German relations after World War II. Its methods, data, and findings will interest not only East Asianists, but also scholars of international reconciliation and security studies more broadly. This roundtable presents three critical essays in addition to a response by the author. They discuss the mechanisms through which historical memory influences per- ceptions of threat, the relative weight of ideational versus material factors in threat perception, and whether changes in international norms and economic interdependence may increasingly pressure countries to confront past violence. KEYWORDS:apology, memory, history, reconciliation, threat perception, Japan, Korea, Germany, World War II Historical Remembrance and International Relations Theory Charles L. Glaser Sorry Statesexplores the interaction between how a country remembers its history—as captured in its leaders’ statements, textbooks, public 337 01_JEAS_9.3_Roundtable.qxd 10/8/09 2:49 PM Page 338 338 Roundtable: Jennifer Lind’s Sorry States debates, and other expressions of historical interpretation—and how former adversaries understand its intentions. The question is important for both policy and theory. There is a developing conventional wisdom that acknowledging past aggression and apologizing for it are essential for improving international relations. States that have failed to deal ad- equately with their violent histories have poor relations with their neighbors; consequently, goes the argument, dealing more honestly and fully with their checkered pasts is the key to a peaceful future. Germany gets high marks for having fully confronted the horrors of its Nazi past; in contrast, Japan scores poorly for having failed to apologize ade- quately for the violence and suffering that flowed from its efforts to dominate Asia. The difference is reflected in current political relations: Germany is not feared in Europe, while Japan is feared in Asia. On the international relations theory front, there is continuing controversy over whether a state’s understanding of others’intentions even matters and little agreement about how these understandings are formed. Studying the possibility that a state’s treatment of its history influences assess- ments of intentions sheds light on this debate. Lind develops a theory of historical remembrance, tests it thoroughly in two cases—Japan’s handling of its history with South Korea and Ger- many’swith France—and briefly studies a few additional cases. Her the- ory identifies three mechanisms that could link a country’s remembrance toan opposing state’s assessment of its intentions. In the first, a country that deals with its history effectively sends a “costly signal.” Mobiliza- tion for war often requires a state to paint its adversary as dangerous and hostile, while depicting itself as unthreatening and acting purely defen- sively. Astate that accurately remembers its past expansionist violence undermines its ability to pursue this domestic mobilization strategy by guaranteeing that its public will question the necessity of war.Accurate remembrance serves as a costly signal because a country that anticipated launching a war of expansion would be less willing to weaken its mobi- lization capability than a country that planned only to respond to aggres- sion. Second, and potentially related, states’interactions are influenced by their identities. Astate that repudiates its expansionist past indicates that its values have changed and, consequently, that it can be relied upon to act differently in the future. Finally,the way a country remembers its past can have emotional effects on observers in other countries. Afailure to apologize can communicate a lack of respect, which triggers anger, which in turn fuels hostility between the countries. Lind finds partial support for the conventional wisdom on the role of historical remembrance—by denying and distorting its past revi- 01_JEAS_9.3_Roundtable.qxd 10/8/09 2:49 PM Page 339 Charles L. Glaser 339 sionist behavior, a state fuels doubts about its current intentions. Hav- ing increased its assessment that the opposing state wants to revise the status quo, a state feels more insecure if the opposing state also has the power necessary to acquire offensive military capabilities. At the same time, however, Lind finds that many states have been able to form quite positive relationships without apologies for past aggression. For exam- ple, Japan has not apologized to the United States for attacking Pearl Harbor and precipitating the massive fighting that followed. Although West Germany did not deny its World War II history during the early postwar period, it also did not spend much time remembering its wartime atrocities, nor did it apologize to France during this period. Nevertheless, West Germany and France developed a positive and co- operative relationship. Thus, while effective apologies can contribute to good political relations, the evidence demonstrates they are not neces- sary for substantial reconciliation. In addition, Lind’s analysis of historical cases identifies a previ- ously unappreciated risk: apologies can generate a domestic political backlash in which conservatives deny past aggression or explain it away as defensive and demanded by the state’s security. This backlash then damages international political relations, which suggests the pos- sibility that the state’srelationship with its former enemy was actually damaged by the apology and ensuing domestic reactions. The apologies Japan’s leaders have offered to South Korea have often had this over- all negative effect. Lind concludes that countries need to strike a bal- ance between satisfying other states’ needs for its remembrance and provoking a self-defeating domestic backlash. Activists and commen- tators who pressure states to offer apologies have not adequately con- sidered the possibility of domestic backlash and, consequently, may need to recalibrate their demands when backlash is likely. Sorry States contributes to international relations theory at many levels. A key divide in the grand theory debate is over the role of a state’s assessment of opposing states’ motives and intentions in its choice between cooperative and competitive strategies. On one side of this debate, offensive realists argue that states should focus only on oth- ers’power, not their intentions. Given uncertainty about others’current intentions and the possibility they will change, a state cannot afford to base its strategy on the mere possibility that it faces a state that is in- terested only in security (Mearsheimer 2001). Defensive realists dis- agree, arguing that a state’s strategy should depend on its information about an opposing state’s motives. When the state believes that the op- posing state is more likely to be a security seeker, cooperation is less 01_JEAS_9.3_Roundtable.qxd 10/8/09 2:49 PM Page 340 340 Roundtable: Jennifer Lind’s Sorry States risky, because the opposing state is more likely to reciprocate and less likely to take advantage of the state’s restraint. In addition, under this information condition, cooperation is also likely to provide larger ben- efits, because restraint will signal that the state is itself a security seeker, which enables the state to increase its own security when facing a security dilemma. Given the central role of information about mo- tives, defensive realism raises the question of how states assess others’ intentions and, closely related, of how security-seeking states can sig- nal their benign motives (Glaser, forthcoming; Kydd 2005).1 Clearly, Lind adds support to theories that are built on the premise that intentions matter. Her case studies consistently demonstrate both that states assess others’intentions and that these assessments influence their policies. France no longer fears Germany, an assessment that re- flects its confidence in Germany’s benign intentions. As a result, the continuing US military commitment to Europe is not essential for maintaining good political relations between these states, which is a striking result given that these former enemies have a long history of extremely costly wars. The role of intentions is maybe clearest in South Korea’s comparison of the threat posed by Japan and the United States: although the United States is much more powerful, South Korea has viewed it as far less threatening, because it judged US intentions to be more benign. Lind does not argue that assessments of intentions domi- nate other factors, most obviously power, that also influence whether other states are viewed as threatening. Instead, she makes the more bal- anced argument that in addition to power and military capabilities, states include assessments of intentions in their evaluation of threats. Lind’s analysis bears still more directly on the question of howstates assess others’intentions. Because states do rely on their assessments of motives and intentions in designing their international security policies, understanding the factors that influence these assessments is essential for both theory and policy.Scholars have already studied some of the factors that states consider in making these assessments—including, among oth- ers, regime type, ideology, and costly signals that states can send via their military and foreign policies (Owen 2001–2002; Haas 2005; Edelstein 2002; Glaser 1994–1995; Kydd 1997). Some of this information—for example, regime type—is available to a state before it interacts with an opposing state. Other factors that provide information—for example, costly signals—become available only when interaction occurs and may reflect policy choices designed specifically to communicate information about motives. 01_JEAS_9.3_Roundtable.qxd 10/8/09 2:49 PM Page 341 Charles L. Glaser 341 Given the importance of understanding the factors that influence states’assessments of intentions, additional research is necessary and Sorry Statesmakes a valuable contribution. Lind’s case studies demon- strate that states carefully observe how former enemies remember their history and that this influences assessments of their intentions. France paid extensive attention to Germany’s remembrance, leaving little doubt that France would have been alarmed if Germany had tried to whitewash its history. The domestic backlash generated by Japan’s apologies and its efforts to whitewash some of its aggressive history fu- eled South Korea’s distrust of Japan. As a result, South Korea worried more about Japan’s military capabilities and was more fearful during periods in which Japan appeared likely to be less constrained by the United States. In short, Lind’s analysis makes a convincing case for in- cluding the quality of remembrance among the factors that states rely on in forming their views of others’intentions. Exactly how remembrance influences assessments turns out to be quite complicated. As previously noted, Lind identifies three possibili- ties. Her case studies and especially her identification of the importance of the potential for domestic backlash suggest a fourth possible mecha- nism. Adomestic backlash—spurred, for example, by a state’s decision about how to teach its history or by a leader’s official apology—reflects the lack of a broad domestic consensus on the state’s responsibility for a war and/or its actions during a war. This means that a democracy will have difficulty presenting a misleading picture of how it views its past. An apology that does not enjoy wide domestic support will be rejected by a substantial fraction of the public or elites, and opposing states will observe this domestic dispute. And as Sorry States explains, the result may be that opposing states end up more worried, not less, about the state’s intentions. This conclusion is warranted, however (assuming we accept that how a state remembers and confronts its history influences its future policies). Astate that is deeply divided about its history should cre- ate worries, precisely because the influence of conservative views in- creases the prospect that the state will eventually adopt a more dangerous distorted nationalist history. Aleader’s apology provides little comfort if the next election could bring to power a leader that holds diametrically opposed views. Former enemies should, therefore, be concerned not only—or maybe even primarily—with the remembrance policies that a state implements, but also with the domestic reactions they generate, be- cause the breath of consensus may be as important as the views of the current leadership. From this perspective, acts of remembrance are not 01_JEAS_9.3_Roundtable.qxd 10/8/09 2:49 PM Page 342 342 Roundtable: Jennifer Lind’s Sorry States costly signals, but instead indicators of the breadth and stability of a country’s consensus on its history. The lack of backlash demonstrates breadth, while backlash demonstrates the opposite. Aliberal democracy cannot fake consensus, because it does not repress the expression of op- posing political views. As a result, while a democratic state might have incentives to misrepresent its view of its own history, it will lack the abil- ity to do so. Therefore, official statements and policies do not need to be costly to provide opposing states with valuable information; instead, the lack of a domestic backlash makes them inherently credible. There is a parallel here to an argument about how democracy in- creases peace. When a government faces an opposition party, it is less able to misrepresent its preferences, because the opposition party will oppose policies that do not have support across the political spectrum. Recognizing this, and that a divisive debate will undermine its credi- bility in a crisis, the government will be less willing to enter into crisis bargaining that requires exaggerating its interests (Schultz 1998).2 Lind’s findings also raise interesting questions about the differen- tial impact of various forms of remembrance. Why does distorting and whitewashing one’s history generate negative assessments of inten- tions, while failing to apologize seems not to? One possibility is that the implications for a state’s future policies are different. Teaching an accurate history of past aggression may provide most of the protection that is available. As maintained by the costly signaling argument, it re- duces a state’s ability to mobilize for revisionist projects. Furthermore, over a sustained period, education establishes a foundation for a na- tional consensus on a state’shistory that provides stability to the state’s military and foreign policies, because the population’s understanding of its history cannot then be quickly changed. Apologies are likely to test the strength of the national consensus—because they are the most visible, high-level acknowledgment of a state’s aggressive past and of the human and political costs it inflicted—and therefore do provide in- formation to former enemies. However, whether this is a significant ad- dition, on top of the information provided by official histories, accurate education, and national discourses, remains an open question.3Having shed a great deal of light on the importance of remembrance for inter- national relations, SorryStatessets the stage for a research agenda that addresses this type of still more nuanced question. Charles L. Glaser is professor of political science and international affairs in the Elliott School of International Affairs and the Department of Political Sci- ence at George Washington University. Before coming to George Washington, 01_JEAS_9.3_Roundtable.qxd 10/8/09 2:49 PM Page 343 Thomas U. Berger 343 Glaser taught at the University of Chicago and the University of Michigan. He is the author of Analyzing Strategic Nuclear Policy(1990) and Rational The- ory of International Politics: The Logic of Competition and Cooperation (forthcoming 2010). Sorry States in a Sorry World: Beyond German Exceptionalism Thomas U. Berger Jennifer Lind’s Sorry States: Apologies in International Politics is an important new contribution to the growing literature on the impact of apologies and restitution on domestic and international politics (Barkan 2000; Gibney et al. 2008; Nobles 2008; Torpey 2003). The cases she investigates—Germany’s and Japan’s relations to their neighbors—are of singular importance to world politics, and they are commonly held up as the two prime examples of what should be done—and what should notbe done—to redress past wrongdoing by the state. As a result of its courageous and forthright attitude, Germany is said to enjoy healthy re- lations with its neighbors and to have contributed greatly to peace and stability in Europe. Japan is usually portrayed as the opposite, as a coun- try that remains in denial about the terrible things it has done in the past, thus stirring enmity and resentment throughout the Asian region. Lind makes three central claims in her book. First, she finds that the way in which Germany and Japan deal with their past does have a measurable impact on the degree to which they are perceived as poten- tial threats by neighboring countries. Because of Germany’s strenuous efforts to confront the dark side of its history, nations such as France and Britain no longer view it as a potential aggressor. In contrast, al- though Japanese leaders repeatedly have sought to apologize for their nation’s history of aggression, they consistently have been undercut by powerful domestic conservative political forces who subscribe to a firmly impenitent stance on the past. As a result, Korean and Chinese elites continue to worry about the possible resurgence of Japanese mil- itarism. Lind thus provides strong, empirically grounded support for the conventional wisdom that it is important to apologize (Lind 2008b, 154–155, 188). Lind goes on to argue, however, that contrition need not be the prerequisite for reconciliation. In the case of the Federal Repub- lic, Lind claims that reconciliation with France preceded Germany’s 01_JEAS_9.3_Roundtable.qxd 10/8/09 2:49 PM Page 344 344 Roundtable: Jennifer Lind’s Sorry States adopting a genuinely penitent stance regarding its past. Already by the early 1960s, public opinion surveys showed that a majority of the French population viewed the Federal Republic as France’s most im- portant partner in Europe, and the governments of the two countries worked together closely on a broad range of economic and security is- sues. According to Lind, however, German contrition regarding its past only began in earnest in the 1960s, with the entry of the Social Demo- crats into government after 1965. While the French clearly cared about how Germans viewed their past, a relative lack of contrition on Ger- many’s part did not interfere substantively with the two nations devel- oping a productive partnership.4 Looking beyond the French-German case, Lind finds many similar instances of countries that remain impenitent regarding their past but who manage nonetheless to develop warm and productive relations with countries that were the victims of their wrongdoing. Austria, which had been a part of the Third Reich, is cited by Lind as one such example. The United States, which killed hundreds of thousands of in- nocent German and Japanese civilians through indiscriminate aerial bombardment during World War II, is another. Finally, Lind warns that although not apologizing can deepen in- terstate suspicions, adopting a contrite stance is not without its own costs and risks. In the case of Japan, repeated efforts by successive prime ministers to apologize for Japanese colonialism and aggression have been undercut by a backlash from conservative elements in Japa- nese society.As a result, the goal of reconciliation in the Asian context remains an elusive one, and regional politics has been repeatedly dis- rupted by emotional disputes over history. Contrary to the received wis- dom on the subject, it is not Japanese amnesia, but rather Japan’s im- perfect and repeated efforts at remembering that has been the source of so much controversy in Asia. The practical policy implication of this line of reasoning is that governments need to weigh carefully the potential costs and benefits of apologizing for the past. While one might wish to apologize for nor- mative reasons, and rightly done apologies may contribute to feelings of amity between two countries, if an apology triggers a nationalist backlash, it may actually damage the reconciliation process. Looking at a wide range of cases, Lind concludes that Germany is more the ex- ception than the rule. She argues that in most countries when leaders at- tempt to apologize for the past, a conservative backlash is the result (Lind 2008b, 190–196). 01_JEAS_9.3_Roundtable.qxd 10/8/09 2:49 PM Page 345 Thomas U. Berger 345 Lind’s arguments appear eminently reasonable and are solidly backed by a wealth of empirical data. Methodologically speaking, her paired comparison of relations of countries should serve as a model for investigating these type of phenomena. All too often, the tendency has been to look at the politics of contrition solely in the context of a single country, leaving the interactive nature of the process out of the picture. One might call this the problem of “listening to the sound of one hand clapping.” Moreover, the hard-nosed, pragmatic approach to dealing with the question of historical justice that Lind advocates is a welcome antidote to the reflexive advocates of contrition who feel it is always right and good to apologize and make amends for the past.5 At the same time, Lind’s analysis leaves important questions unan- swered. The central problem that Lind faces is that if efforts to apolo- gize in Japan led to a counterproductive, nationalist backlash, why did they not have a similar effect in Germany? Lind is well aware of this issue, but her treatment of it is regrettably superficial, going no further than to suggest that the Federal Republic faced such enormous strate- gic pressures that it was possible to forge a consensus across the polit- ical spectrum in support of a sustained campaign of apology and rec- onciliation(Lind 2008b, 155–156, 182–183). This is undoubtedly true. However,from the 1980s, Japan as well faced considerable and grow- ing pressures to apologize, yet a consensus in favor of contrition has proven difficult to achieve. This raises the obvious question, just how much pressure is needed to stifle a nationalist backlash, and are there any further conditions that need to be fulfilled if reconciliation is to be achieved? Lind does not tell us. In addition, there is a certain inconsistency between Lind’s argu- ment that a nation’sstance on history influences whether it is perceived as a threat and her contention that reconciliation can occur without apol- ogizing for past wrongs. Logically speaking, if a country is viewed as a threat, it should be difficult to forge a robust cooperative relationship with that country. Lind herself seems to acknowledge as much, suggest- ing in various places that it is difficult to imagine European integration proceeding as it has without Germany’s forthrightly taking responsibil- ity for the crimes of the Third Reich. This is a far from trivial issue, for the European integration process—as Lind’saccount describes in some detail—was critical in defusing a sharp upsurge in threat perceptions that emerged at the end of the Cold War and German reunification (Lind 2008b, 140–143). If there had been no German apology,European inte- gration would have been far weaker, and if European integration were 01_JEAS_9.3_Roundtable.qxd 10/8/09 2:49 PM Page 346 346 Roundtable: Jennifer Lind’s Sorry States not as strong and robust as it would become by the late 1980s, Franco- German reconciliation might well have broken down after German re- unification in 1989–1991. While Germany and France might have rec- onciled in a limited sense in the 1960s, without the increasingly contrite German attitude toward the past that reconciliation would have proven rather fragile. It is a pity that Lind did not pursue these questions further, for if she had, she might have arrived at a more nuanced understanding of the processes that are at work, not only in the German and Japanese cases but on a global level as well. Germany may not be as much of an ex- ception as she believes, nor Japan as representative as she suggests of a universal pattern that when leaders apologize they trigger conserva- tive backlashes. In fact, both countries are quite similar in that they are responding to broadly similar global processes, albeit ones that are de- veloping at a different rate and in different ways in their respective re- gions. In order to understand the “sorry states” such as Germany and Japan, we have to place them in the context of the “sorry world” that has given rise to them in the first place. That countries are pursuing questions of historical justice at the in- ternational level at all represents very much a novum in world history. In the past, Disraeli’squip “never explain, never apologize” might well be taken as the maxim by which most states conducted their foreign policies. Over the past few decades, however, a concatenation of long- term trends has placed historical justice squarely on the international agenda. The two most important ones are the development of an inter- national human rights regime and the growth in complex interdepen- dence between states.6 While the origins of the human rights regime can be traced back to the dawn of human civilization, it is only after World War II that stan- dards regarding the way states should treat people were systematically codified in the form of international treaties and conventions. Initially, the human rights regime focused very much on preventing human rights abuses in the present. From the beginning, however, there was a strong historical justice component, reflected most clearly in the post-1945 ef- forts to punish the leaders of Nazi Germany and militarist Japan for “crimes against peace” and “crimes against humanity.” Only by punish- ing past transgressions, it was reasoned, would it be possible to prevent their reoccurrence in the future and to create stable democratic systems in those countries. Such efforts, however, were ad hoc in nature, and the nascent human rights regime was soon crippled by the development of the Cold War. Nonetheless, over time human rights norms strengthened