APM Complete Illustrative Solutions Fall 2011 1. Learning Objectives: 7. The candidate will understand the purposes and methods of portfolio performance measurement. Learning Outcomes: (7a) Describe and assess performance measurement methodologies for investment portfolios. (7b) Describe and assess techniques that can be used to select or build a benchmark for a given portfolio or portfolio management style. (7c) Recommend a benchmark for a given portfolio or portfolio management style. (7d) Recommend a performance measurement methodology. Sources: Babbel & Fabozzi, Chapter 3 – A Performance Measurement System for Insurers Commentary on Question: Commentary listed underneath question component. Solution: (a) Describe what a liability-based benchmark is and identify key characteristics. Commentary on Question: Here we were looking for the idea that the liability benchmark was a collection of assets that were to mimic the theoretical MV of the liabilities. This was generally well done. A liability benchmark is:  A portfolio of assets that translates the theoretical market value of the liabilities to a real value under various economic conditions.  It should be based on traded securities that are found in an active market. APM Fall 2011 Solutions Page 1 1. Continued (b) Evaluate briefly each of the above asset(s) as to whether they are appropriate to be selected as sub-liability benchmark portfolio asset(s). Commentary on Question: This section was answered reasonably well by most candidates. A number of candidates did not actually tell us whether or not the asset was appropriate or not and lost possible marks. Marks were provided as long as the appropriateness/not appropriateness was based on solid reasoning. A number of candidates did not answer the question asked and instead provided an answer to whether or not the asset was appropriate to back the liabilities. This is completely different then answering whether or not it should be in the benchmark. Treasuries  Actively traded (liquid)  Default risk free which is very similar to the liabilities as viewed by the policy holder  Used as benchmarks for pricing other securities  Very appropriate High Yield Bonds  Not liquid  Not default risk free  Not appropriate MBS  Some tranches liquid  Some tranches very highly rated, seemingly default risk free  Appropriate given the right tranche Common Stocks  Does not have any characteristics in common with the Trad Porfolio (e.g. Stocks have no duration)  Not appropriate Private Equity  Very illiquid  Default risks usually high  Not appropriate APM Fall 2011 Solutions Page 2 1. Continued (c) Describe construction and composition of Levels III, V, and VI of the proposed performance measurement structure and explain how they can be used in performance attribution. Commentary on Question: This was definitely the toughest part of the question and was answered the poorest. Level III  Aggregate the sub-liability benchmarks into an overall liability benchmark  Level III determines the total rate of return on the overall liability benchmark  Starting place to measure performance between Level III and VII Level V  divide the APP into several smaller sub-asset proxy portfolios  Can map the SAPPs to either SLBs or asset classes  the APP is just the sum of the SAPPs when considering the investment characteristics and total rate of return Level VI  Refine the SAPPs if they cover too much; sub-divide them  If the SAPP differs from the investments, performance will differ from projections APM Fall 2011 Solutions Page 3 2. Learning Objectives: 4. The candidate will understand the specific considerations relative to managing an equity and/or alternative asset portfolio within an asset allocation framework. 7. The candidate will understand the purposes and methods of portfolio performance measurement. Learning Outcomes: (4b) Assess a portfolio position against portfolio management objectives using qualitative and quantitative techniques. (7c) Recommend a benchmark for a given portfolio or portfolio management style. Sources: Marginn & Tuttle “Alternative Investments Portfolio Management” Chapter 8 Commentary on Question: Commentary listed underneath question component. Solution: (a) Critique the choice of using a U.S. equity index as a benchmark for the “Volatility Arbitrage” hedge fund. Commentary on Question: A lot of the students looked at this from the point of view of what makes an appropriate benchmark rather than applying their answer directly to this HF. For example they listed desirable characteristics, such as: measurable, investible, specified in advance. This was not the answer we were looking for.  A simple US equity index, which would be long-only, may not be relevant for the volatility arbitrage fund strategy since it would involve both long and short positions.  There would likely be a large basis difference as the volatility arbitrage hedge fund may not have exposure to U.S. equities. (b) Recommend approaches and criteria for evaluating the performance of the hedge fund. Commentary on Question: Again most of the students just regurgitated all the things that can be used to measure performance – not specifically a HF. They suggested measures like: mean and variance, skew and kurtosis, volatility and downside risk, Jensen’s alpha, Treynor’s ratio, Sortino’s ratio, gain-to-loss ratio, Sharpe’s ratio, volatility, fee structure, etc. A more specific answer was expected. APM Fall 2011 Solutions Page 4 2. Continued  Can compare just on alpha, which still requires determination of a benchmark portfolio.  Hedge fund strategies can be compared within similar styles – constructing comparable portfolios – use a single/multifactor model or using optimization to create tracking portfolios with similar risk and return characteristics. (c) Explain survivorship bias and why it may be more of a concern in hedge fund indices than large cap equity indices.  Survivorship bias in an index means that the returns observed in an index over time are biased since only the surviving constituents over time stay in the index and the index composition does not stay constant over time.  Managers with poor records exist in the business while only those with good records remain in the index.  Survivorship bias is less of a concern for equities as the group of large cap equities remains more stable over time compared to the number of hedge funds.  Hedge funds startup and exit more often than large cap equities.  Stricter rules for inclusion of stocks in large cap indices than for HFs. (d) Explain the limitations the Sharpe Ratio has in measuring hedge fund performance relative to Wonka Life’s overall asset allocation. Commentary on Question: Similar to (a) and (b) many answered what made Sharpe not great, as opposed to addressing this HF specifically. .  The Sharpe ratio does not measure risk-adjusted performance since the annualized standard deviation is used.  Illiquid holdings bias the Sharpe ratio upwards since the volatility is likely understated.  The Sharpe ratio is primarily a measurement for stand-alone investments and does not take into consideration the correlations of the investment with other assets in the portfolio.  Serially correlated returns can cause a lower estimate of the standard deviation and help boost the Sharpe ratio.  Not appropriate for asymmetric return. APM Fall 2011 Solutions Page 5 3. Learning Objectives: 2. The candidate will understand the variety of financial instruments available to managed portfolios. Learning Outcomes: (2a) Compare and select specialized financial instruments that can be used in the construction of an asset portfolio supporting financial institutions and pension plan liabilities. Sources: V-C165-09 Commentary on Question: Assess candidate’s understanding of Structured Finance Vehicles and a company’s motivation for investing in one or creating one and selling it. Understanding the risks and then due to some of the problems in the marketplace, what is likely to occur in future markets for these products? Important considerations for receiving maximum points: understanding the facts (which is essential a list-type question for parts (a) and (b)) and then applying them to discuss risk with the proposed adjustments – i.e. investing in one industry vs. a diversified group or investing in just the equity tranches and what this means to Wonka and its risk profile. The final part (e) is essentially a list question but if the candidate commented on implications of future outcomes, that garnered more points (full points vs. less than full if no comment on implications). Parts (a) and (b) (and (e)) were answered the best since they included lists, which the candidates had memorized well. Parts (c) and (d) which required more analysis were poor performers – most candidates got points stating some facts about the answer (e.g., the risk of the equity tranche or single industry) but very few showed that they understood the implications. Solution: (a) Describe the process of creating a Structured Finance investment vehicle. Pool risks by aggregating underlying risks and splitting the various cashflows into different tranches with different levels of seniority meeting the needs of different investors. Payouts from the pool are paid to the holders of these tranches in a specific order, starting with the most senior tranches (the least risky) down to the equity tranches (the most risky). Risk to investor because after an initial cashflow buffer is depleted, the equity tranche is hit first and then next highest according to the hierarchy of the vehicle. APM Fall 2011 Solutions Page 6 3. Continued (b) Describe the motivations behind the creation of Structured Finance investment vehicles.  Pooling risks  Investors can choose tranches to reflect their own risk-return trade offs  Attractive to institutional investors seeking higher rated or AAA-rated securities  Banks could manage regulatory capital more efficiently/arbitrage capital rules  Potential to lower capital charges to the bank  Banks could originate more underlying loans while not having to fund them directly  Some issuers were motivated by large fees (c) Evaluate the potential risks of the portfolio manager’s proposal. Commentary on Question: Candidates did poorly against total grading points because they basically said that investing in one industry would lead to higher risk, but that’s all they said. They missed stating correlation and any mismatch risk this might create. No one mentioned the ratings piece to this answer. Exchanging a portfolio exposed to many industries to one that concentrates in one industry exposes the insurer to concentration or contagion risk, as adverse economic conditions may affect firms in the same sector similarly. Furthermore, firms that are more highly correlated will have greater degrees of losses, given default. Wonka will be exposed to a mismatch between these assets’ cash flows and those of the liabilities. Poor economic conditions that could result in defaults may also incite policyholders to withdraw funds, requiring liquidation of these securities at an inopportune time (d) Evaluate how your answer in (c) would change if the two tranches under consideration were equity tranches Equity tranches pose even greater risk, because, in the event of default, it is these tranches that will suffer financial loss first. These tranches would be lower rated and hence will result in greater capital requirements. APM Fall 2011 Solutions Page 7 3. Continued (e) Describe how the recent financial crisis is likely to impact the future Structured Finance Product market.  More stringent regulatory requirements are likely to occur.  Investors will perform more of their own due diligence in proposed investments, rather than rely on rating agency analysis.  Rating agencies will provide more insight on their rating processes, as well as their limitations/models.  Originators may retain some of the risk of the underlying assets’ performance.  Greater standardization of products may occur. APM Fall 2011 Solutions Page 8 4. Learning Objectives: 5. The candidate will understand the specific considerations relative to managing a fixed income portfolio within an asset allocation framework. Learning Outcomes: (5h) Describe and critique the role of rating agencies in evaluating credit risk. (5i) Explain and recommend best practices in credit risk management including:  Credit and underwriting policies  Comprehensive due diligence  Diversification requirements and aggregate counter-party exposure limits  Use of credit derivatives and credit support agreements.  (5j) Recommend a credit risk management strategy for a given situation. Sources: Crouhy Risk Management, Chapter 7, Section 5-7 Commentary on Question: Part (a) and (b) are recall type questions; part (c) is analysis type question. Most candidates got the high level points and some candidates who provided additional details were awarded additional points. However, in general, most candidates did poorly in section (c). Solution: (a) Describe the Financial Assessment process used by rating agencies to determine the Obligor’s initial risk rating. Commentary on Question: Candidates are expected to recall not only the main points of the Financial Assessment process but also the additional aspects that may provide more information to determine the initial rating. The Financial Assessment process determines the initial obligor rating. The Financial Assessment process takes into account the following: 1. Earnings & Cash Flow (EBITA) 2. Leverage 3. Financial size, flexibility and debt capacity APM Fall 2011 Solutions Page 9 4. Continued In addition, the following may provide more information: 1. Various balance sheet ratios (such as liquidity ratio, leverage ratio) 2. Current year is emphasized 3. Previous few years are considered 4. Cyclical adjustments are made when necessary 5. Judgment is essential (b) Describe briefly the categories of adjustment factors for the obligor credit rating used by rating agencies as listed by Crouhy. Commentary on Question: Candidates are expected to list the main categories of the adjustment factors and further explanations will be marginally rewarded The adjustment factors are meant to downgrade if the standard is not met (do not improve rating) and include the following: 1. Assess management and other qualitative factors  Management skills and knowledge  Security reporting on timely basis 2. Industry ratings summary  Competitiveness  Trade environment  Regulatory framework  Technological change  Long term trends 3. Tier Assessment 4. Industry/Tier position 5. Financial statement qualities 6. Country risk (c) Explain how the Business Review from Byrd Ratings & Analysis’ report applies the Financial Assessment process and the adjustment factors. Commentary on Question: Candidates are expected to evaluate Wonka Life’s Insurance using the Financial Assessment process and the adjustment factors based on Byrd Ratings & Analysis’ report. APM Fall 2011 Solutions Page 10