Anthology of Statistics in Sports ASA-SIAM Series on Statistics and Applied Probability ASA SIAM The ASA-SIAM Series on Statistics and Applied Probability is published jointly by the American Statistical Association and the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics. The series consists of a broad spectrum of books on topics in statistics and applied probability. The purpose of the series is to provide inexpensive, quality publications of interest to the intersecting membership of the two societies. Editorial Board Martin T. Wells Joseph Gardiner Cornell University, Editor-in-Chief Michigan State University David Banks Susan Holmes Duke University Stanford University H. T. Banks Lisa LaVange North Carolina State University Inspire Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Richard K. Burdick Francoise Seillier-Moiseiwitsch Arizona State University University of Maryland - Baltimore County Douglas M. Hawkins Mark van der Laan University of Minnesota University of California, Berkeley Albert, J., Bennett, J., and Cochran, J. J., eds., Anthology of Statistics in Sports Smith, W. F, Experimental Design for Formulation Baglivo, J. A., Mathematica Laboratories for Mathematical Statistics: Emphasizing Simulation and Computer Intensive Methods Lee, H. K. H., Bayesian Nonparametrics via Neural Networks O'Gorman, T. W., Applied Adaptive Statistical Methods: Tests of Significance and Confidence Intervals Ross, T. J., Booker, J. M., and Parkinson, W. J., eds., Fuzzy Logic and Probability Applications: Bridging the Gap Nelson, W. B., Recurrent Events Data Analysis for Product Repairs, Disease Recurrences, and Other Applications Mason, R. L. and Young, J. C, Multivariate Statistical Process Control with Industrial Applications Smith, P. L., A Primer for Sampling Solids, Liquids, and Gases: Based on the Seven Sampling Errors of Pierre Gy Meyer, M. A. and Booker, J. M., Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide Latouche, G. and Ramaswami, V., Introduction to Matrix Analytic Methods in Stochastic Modeling Peck, R., Haugh, L., and Goodman, A., Statistical Case Studies: A Collaboration Between Academe and Industry, Student Edition Peck, R., Haugh, L., and Goodman, A., Statistical Case Studies: A Collaboration Between Academe and Industry Barlow, R., Engineering Reliability Czitrom, V. and Spagon, P. D., Statistical Case Studies for Industrial Process Improvement Anthology of Statistics in Sports Edited by Jim Albert Bowling Green State University Bowling Green, Ohio Jay Bennett Telcordia Technologies Piscataway, New Jersey James J. Cochran Louisiana Tech University Ruston, Louisiana siajiL Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics American Statistical Association Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Alexandria, Virginia The correct bibliographic citation for this book is as follows: Albert, Jim, Jay Bennett, and James J. Cochran, eds., Anthology of Statistics in Sports, ASA-SIAM Series on Statistics and Applied Probability, SIAM, Philadelphia, ASA, Alexandria, VA, 2005. Copyright © 2005 by the American Statistical Association and the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics. 10987654321 All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored, or transmitted in any manner without the written permission of the publisher. For information, write to the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, 3600 University City Science Center, Philadelphia, PA 19104-2688. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Anthology of statistics in sports / [compiled by] Jim Albert, Jay Bennett, James J. Cochran. p. cm. - (ASA-SIAM series on statistics and applied probability) On cover: The ASA Section on Statistics in Sports. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-89871-587-3 (pbk.) 1. Sports-United States-Statistics. 2. Sports-United States-Statistical methods. I. Albert, Jim, 1953- II. Bennett, Jay. III. Cochran, James J. IV. American Statistical Association. Section on Statistics in Sports. V. Series. GV741.A6942005 796'.021-dc22 2005042540 siajTL is a registered trademark. Contents Acknowledgments ix 1 Introduction 1 Jim Albert, Jay Bennett, and James J. Cochran 2 The Use of Sports in Teaching Statistics 5 Jim Albert and James J. Cochran PART I STATISTICS IN FOOTBALL 11 3 Introduction to the Football Articles 13 Hal Stern 4 A Geometry Model for NFL Field Goal Kickers 17 Scott M. Berry 5 A State-Space Model for National Football League Scores 23 Mark E. Glickman and Hal S. Stern 6 Predictions for National Football League Games via Linear-Model Methodology 35 David Harville 7 The Best NFL Field Goal Kickers: Are They Lucky or Good? 45 Donald G. Morrison and Manohar U. Kalwani 8 On the Probability of Winning a Football Game 53 Hal Stern PART II STATISTICS IN BASEBALL 59 9 Introduction to the Baseball Articles 61 Jim Albert and James J. Cochran 10 Exploring Baseball Hitting Data: What About Those Breakdown Statistics? 67 Jim Albert 11 Did Shoeless Joe Jackson Throw the 1919 World Series? 77 Jay Bennett 12 Player Game Percentage 87 Jay M. Bennett and John A. Flueck V Contents 13 Estimation with Selected Binomial Information or Do You Really Believe That Dave Winfield Is Batting .471? 91 George Casella and Roger L. Berger 14 Baseball: Pitching No-Hitters 103 Cliff Frvhlich 15 Answering Questions About Baseball Using Statistics 111 Bill James, Jim Albert, and Hal S. Stern 16 The Progress of the Score During a Baseball Game 119 G. R. Lindsey PART III STATISTICS IN BASKETBALL 145 17 Introduction to the Basketball Articles 147 Robert L. Wardrop 18 Improved NCAA Basketball Tournament Modeling via Point Spread and Team Strength Information 149 Bradley P. Carlin 19 It's Okay to Believe in the "Hot Hand" 155 Patrick D. Larkey, Richard A. Smith, and Joseph B. Kadane 20 More Probability Models for the NCAA Regional Basketball Tournaments 163 Neil C. Schwertman, Kathryn L. Schenk, and Brett C. Holbrook 21 The Cold Facts About the "Hot Hand" in Basketball 169 Amos Tversky and Thomas Gilovich 22 Simpson's Paradox and the Hot Hand in Basketball 175 Robert L. Wardrop PART IV STATISTICS IN ICE HOCKEY 181 23 Introduction to the Ice Hockey Articles 183 Robin H. Lock 24 Statistical Methods for Rating College Hockey Teams 187 Timothy J. Danehy and Robin H. Lock 25 Overtime or Shootout: Deciding Ties in Hockey 193 William Hurley 26 It Takes a Hot Goalie to Raise the Stanley Cup 197 Donald G. Morrison and David C. Schmittlein PART V STATISTICAL METHODOLOGIES AND MULTIPLE SPORTS 203 27 Introduction to the Methodologies and Multiple Sports Articles 205 Scott Berry 28 Bridging Different Eras in Sports 209 Scott M. Berry, C. Shane Reese, and Patrick D. Larkey VI Contents 29 Data Analysis Using Stein's Estimator and Its Generalizations 225 Bradley Efron and Carl Morris 30 Assigning Probabilities to the Outcomes of Multi-Entry Competitions 235 David A. Harville 31 Basketball, Baseball, and the Null Hypothesis 241 Robert Hooke 32 Lessons from Sports Statistics 245 Frederick Mosteller 33 Can TQM Improve Athletic Performance? 251 Harry V. Roberts 34 A Brownian Motion Model for the Progress of Sports Scores 257 Hal S. Stern PART VI STATISTICS IN MISCELLANEOUS SPORTS 265 35 Introduction to the Miscellaneous Sports Articles 267 Donald Guthrie 36 Shooting Darts 271 Hal Stern and Wade Wilcox 37 Drive for Show and Putt for Dough 275 Scott M. Berry 38 Adjusting Golf Handicaps for the Difficulty of the Course 281 Francis Scheid and Lyle Calvin 39 Rating Skating 287 Gilbert W. Bassett, Jr. and Joseph Per sky 40 Modeling Scores in the Premier League: Is Manchester United Really the Best? 293 A Ian J. Lee 41 Down to Ten: Estimating the Effect of a Red Card in Soccer 299 G. Ridder, J. S. Cramer, and P. Hopstaken 42 Heavy Defeats in Tennis: Psychological Momentum or Random Effect? 303 David Jackson and Krzysztof Mosurski 43 Who Is the Fastest Man in the World? 311 Robert Tibshirani 44 Resizing Triathlons for Fairness 317 Howard Wainer and Richard D. De Veaux VII This page intentionally left blank Acknowledgments Original Sources of Contributed Articles Chapter 4 originally appeared in Chance, vol. 12, no. 3, 1999, pp. 51-56. Chapter 5 originally appeared in Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 93, no. 441, 1998, pp. 25-35. Chapter 6 originally appeared in Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 75, no. 371, 1980, pp. 516-524. Chapter 7 originally appeared in Chance, vol. 6, no. 3, 1993, pp. 30-37. Chapter 8 originally appeared in The American Statistician, vol. 45, no. 3, 1991, pp. 179-183. Chapter 10 originally appeared in Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 89, no. 427, 1994, pp. 1066-1074. Chapter 11 originally appeared in The American Statistician, vol. 47, no. 4, 1993, pp. 241-250. Chapter 12 originally appeared in American Statistical Association Proceedings of the Section on Statistics in Sports, 1992, pp. 64-66. Chapter 13 originally appeared in Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 89, no. 427, 1994, pp. 1080-1090. Chapter 14 originally appeared in Chance, vol. 7, no. 3, 1994, pp. 24-30. Chapter 15 originally appeared in Chance, vol. 6, no. 2, 1993, pp. 17-22, 30. Chapter 16 originally appeared in American Statistical Association Journal, September 1961, pp. 703-728. Chapter 18 originally appeared in The American Statistician, vol. 50, no. 1, 1996, pp. 39-43. Chapter 19 originally appeared in Chance, vol. 2, no. 4, 1989, pp. 22-30. Chapter 20 originally appeared in The American Statistician, vol. 50, no. 1, 1996, pp. 34-38. Chapter 21 originally appeared in Chance, vol. 2, no. 1, 1989, pp. 16-21. Chapter 22 originally appeared in The American Statistician, vol. 49, no. 1, 1995, pp. 24-28. Chapter 24 originally appeared in American Statistical Association Proceedings of the Section on Statistics in Sports, 1993, pp. 4-9. Chapter 25 originally appeared in Chance, vol. 8, no. 1, 1995, pp. 19-22. Chapter 26 originally appeared in Chance, vol. 11, no. 1, 1998, pp. 3-7. Chapter 28 originally appeared in Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 94, no. 447, 1999, pp. 661-676. Chapter 29 originally appeared in Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 70, no. 350, 1975, pp. 311-319. Chapter 30 originally appeared in Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 68, no. 342, 1973, pp. 312-316. Chapter 31 originally appeared in Chance, vol. 2, no. 4, 1989, pp. 35-37. Chapter 32 originally appeared in The American Statistician, vol. 51, no. 4, 1997, pp. 305-310. Chapter 33 originally appeared in Chance, vol. 6, no. 3, 1993, pp. 25-29, 69. Chapter 34 originally appeared in Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 89, no. 427, 1994, pp. 1128-1134. Chapter 36 originally appeared in Chance, vol. 10, no. 3, 1997, pp. 16-19. Chapter 37 originally appeared in Chance, vol. 12, no. 4, 1999, pp. 50-55. Chapter 38 originally appeared in American Statistical Association Proceedings of the Section on Statistics in Sports, 1995, pp. 1-5. IX