Analyzing Repeated Surveys Sage University Papers Series. Quantitative title: Applications in the Social Sciences ; No. 07-115 author: Firebaugh, Glenn. publisher: Sage Publications, Inc. isbn10 | asin: 0803973985 print isbn13: 9780803973985 ebook isbn13: 9780585216737 language: English Social surveys, Social surveys-- subject Methodology, Change (Psychology) publication date: 1997 lcc: HN29.F54 1997eb ddc: 300/.723 Social surveys, Social surveys-- subject: Methodology, Change (Psychology) Analyzing Repeated Surveys SAGE UNIVERSITY PAPERS Series: Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences Series Editor: Michael S. Lewis-Beck, University of Iowa Editorial Consultants Richard A. Berk, Sociology, University of California, Los Angeles William D. Berry, Political Science,Florida State University Kenneth A. Bollen, Sociology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill Linda B. Bourque, Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles Jacques A. Hagenaars, Social Sciences, Tilburg University Sally Jackson, Communications, University of Arizona Richard M. Jaeger, Education, University of North Carolina, Greensboro Gary King, Department of Government, Harvard University Roger E. Kirk, Psychology, Baylor University Helena Chmura Kraemer, Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Stanford University Peter Marsden, Sociology, Harvard University Helmut Norpoth, Political Science, SUNY, Stony Brook Frank L. Schmidt, Management and Organization, University of Iowa Herbert Weisberg, Political Science, The Ohio State University Publisher Sara Miller McCune, Sage Publications, Inc. INSTRUCTIONS TO POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTORS For guidelines on submission of a monograph proposal to this series, please write Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Editor Sage QASS Series Department of Political Science University of Iowa Iowa City, IA 52242 Page i Series / Number 07-115 Analyzing Repeated Surveys Glenn Firebaugh Pennsylvania State University SAGE PUBLICATIONS International Educational and Professional Publisher Thousand Oaks London New Delhi Page ii Copyright © 1997 by Sage Publications, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. For information address: SAGE Publications, Inc. 2455 Teller Road Thousand Oaks, California 91320 E-mail: [email protected] SAGE Publications Ltd 6 Bonhill Street London EC2A 4PU United Kingdom SAGE Publications India Pvt. Ltd M-32 Market Greater Kailash I New Delhi 110 048 India Printed in the United States of America Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Firebaugh, Glenn Analyzing repeated surveys/author, Glenn Firebaugh p. cm.(Quantitative applications in the social sciences; v. 115) ISBN 0-8039-7398-5 (pbk.: acid-free paper) 1. Social surveys. 2. Social surveysMethodology. 3. Change (Psychology) I. Title. II. Series: Sage university papers series Quantitative applications in the social sciences; v. 115 HN29.F54 1977 300'.723dc20 96-35622 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Acquiring Editor: C. Deborah Laughton Editorial Assistant: Eileen Carr Production Editor: Diana E. Axelsen Production Assistant: Denise Santoyo Typesetter/Designer: Andrea Swanson/Dick Palmer When citing a university paper, please use the proper form. Remember to cite the Sage University Paper series title and include the paper number. One of the following formats can be adapted (depending on the style manual used): (1) Jaccard, J., & Wan, C. K. (1996). LISREL approaches to interaction effects in multiple regression (Sage University Paper series on Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, No. 07-114). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. OR (2) Jaccard, J., & Wan, C. K. 1996. LISREL approaches to interaction effects in multiple regression. Sage University Paper series on Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, series no. 07-114. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. Page iii Contents Series Editor's Introduction v Preface vii 1. Introduction 1 Repeated Surveys: Same Questions, Different Samples 1 Repeated Surveys Versus Panel Surveys 2 Analytic Designs for Repeated Surveys 4 A Note on Terminology 5 2. Distinguishing Age, Period, and Cohort Effects 6 Age, Period, and Cohort Effects 6 The Identification Problem 8 Strategies for Overcoming the Identification Problem 9 3. Aggregate Trends 12 Smoothing Trends 12 Group Differences in Trends: Convergence and 14 Divergence Empirical Example of the Divergence Model: Testing 17 the Age Polarization Thesis 4. Decomposing Aggregate Trends 20 Intracohort Change Versus Overall Change 21 Linear Decomposition 23 Empirical Example: Trend in Antiblack Prejudice 26 Algebraic Decomposition 27 Empirical Example: Trend in Antiblack Prejudice 29 Revisited When Does Aggregate Change Outpace Individual 29 Change? Empirical Example of the Rule: Gender Role Attitudes 32 Concluding Remark 35