NPS ARCHIVE 1997,03 valvtox^ POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California THESIS ANALYSIS OF CIVILIAN EMPLOYEE ATTRITION AT THE NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL AND NAVAL SUPPORT ACTIVITY- MONTEREY BAY by Xavier F. Valverde March, 1997 Thesis Co-Advisors: Paul R. Milch Linda Wargo Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. DUDLEYKNOXLIBRARY TGRADUATE SCHOOL :Y CA 93 DUDLEYKNOXLIBRARY NAVALPOSTGRADUATESCHOOL MONTEREY, CA93943-5101 REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE FormApprovedOMBNo.0704-0188 Publicreportingburdenforthiscollectionofinformationisestimatedtoaverage 1 hourperresponse,includingthetimeforreviewinginstruction,searchingexistingdata sources,gatheringandmaintainingthedataneeded,andcompletingandreviewingthecollectionofinformation. Sendcommentsregardingthisburdenestimateoranyother aspectofthiscollectionofinformation,includingsuggestionsforreducingthisburden,toWashingtonHeadquartersServices,DirectorateforInformationOperationsand Reports, 1215JeffersonDavisHighway,Suite 1204,Arlington,VA22202-4302,andtotheOfficeofManagementandBudget,PaperworkReductionProject(0704-0188) WashingtonDC20S03. 1. AGENCYUSE ONLY (Leaveblank) 2. REPORTDATE REPORTTYPEANDDATESCOVERED March 1997 Master's Thesis TITLEANDSUBTITLEANALYSIS OF CIVILIAN EMPLOYEE FUNDINGNUMBERS ATTRITION AT THENAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL AND NAVAL SUPPORTACTIVITY-MONTEREY BAY 6. AUTHOR(S)Valverde, XavierF. 7. PERFORMINGORGANIZATIONNAME(S)ANDADDRESS(ES) PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION Monterey CA 93943-5000 REPORTNUMBER SPONSORING/MONITORINGAGENCYNAME(S)ANDADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCYREPORTNUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARYNOTES Theviews expressedinthis thesis arethoseofthe author anddo notreflectthe official policy orpositionofthe DepartmentofDefenseortheU.S. Government. 12a. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITYSTATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTIONCODE Approved forpublicrelease; distribution is unlimited. 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200words) Thepurpose ofthis thesis is to assistmanagement attheNaval Postgraduate School (NPS) andNaval Support Activity-Monterey Bay (NSA-MB) todeterminewhat civiliannon-facultyemployeejobs arelikelytobe leftvacant inthenextthreeyears dueto attrition andto identifywhattraining and skills will beneededbypersonnel whose jobs maybe eliminated inordertobe transferredtojobs leftvacant dueto attrition. Theresearchmethods include forecasting andwork-analysis. The datawere obtained fromthe Defense Civilian Personnel Data System file for fiscalyears 1989 to 1996. Theresults showtenjobs, basedon averagenumberofaccessions, attritionrates, forecastedvacancies, and qualificationsimilarities, thatmaybe leftvacanttoreceivetransferredpersonnel. The results also showthatthetrainingneededto effectivelytransferpersonnel will beminimal and canbe provided at local technical/vocational schools forthoseworking in Clerical andAdministrativepositions and atNPS forthose working inAdministrative and Managementpositions. Because ofjob specialization and low attrition rates, Firefighters, Police Officers, HeavyMobile EquipmentMechanics, andAutomotive Mechanics willneedmuch training ifthey are to betransferredto otherjobs atNPS andNSA-MB. Itis recommendedthatmanagement interveneto changehiringpractices to increase future vacancies injobs whosevacancies maynotbe sufficient enough innumberormaynot appear quicklyenoughtoreceivepersonnel. Three scenarios usingthe forecasting model are presentedtoprovide alternativemethods ofincreasingthosevacancies. 14. SUBJECTTERMSAttrition, Forecasting, Force Reduction, Work-Analysis 15. NUMBEROF PAGES 176 16. PRICECODE 17. SECURITYCLASSIFICA- 18. SECURITYCLASSIFI- 19. SECURITYCLASSIFICA- 20. LIMITATIONOF TIONOFREPORT CATIONOFTHISPAGE TIONOFABSTRACT ABSTRACT UL Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified NSN 7540-01-280-5500 StandardForm298 (Rev. 2-89) PrescribedbyANSIStd.239-18298-102 11 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. ANALYSIS OF CIVILIAN EMPLOYEE ATTRITION AT THE NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL AND NAVAL SUPPORT ACTIVITY- MONTEREY BAY Xavier F. Valverde [J Lieutenant, United States Navy B.A., University ofWashington, 1990 Submitted in partial fulfillment ofthe requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN MANAGEMENT from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL March 1997 Value v^-e, X. DUDLEYKNOXLIBRARY ! I -GRADUATE SCHOOL MOI CA 93&43-oi01 ABSTRACT The purpose of this thesis is to assist management at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) and Naval Support Activity-Monterey Bay (NSA-MB) to determine what civilian non-faculty employeejobs are likely to be left vacant in the next three years due to attrition and to identify what training and skills will be needed by personnel whose jobs may be eliminated in order to be transferred to jobs left vacant due to attrition. The research methods include forecasting and work- analysis. The data were obtained from the Defense Civilian Personnel Data System files for fiscal years 1989 to 1996. The results show ten jobs, based on average number of accessions, attrition rates, forecasted vacancies, and qualification similarities, that may be left vacant to receive transferred personnel. The results also show that the training needed to effectively transfer personnel will be minimal and can be provided at local technical/vocational schools for those working in Clerical and Administrative positions and at NPS for those working in Administrative and Managerial positions. Because ofjob specialization and low attrition rates, Firefighters, Police Officers, Heavy Mobile Equipment Mechanics, and Automotive Mechanics will need much more training if they are to be transferred to other jobs at NPS and NSA-MB. It is recommended that management intervene to change hiring practices to increase future vacancies injobs whose vacancies may not be sufficient enough in number or may not appear quickly enough to receive personnel. Three scenarios using the forecasting model are presented to provide alternative methods of increasing those vacancies. VI . TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION 1 A. BACKGROUND 1 B. THESIS OVERVIEW 2 C. RESEARCH QUESTIONS AND SCOPE 3 II. CONCEPTS AND LITERATURE REVIEW 7 A. GENERAL 7 B. PLANNING 7 C. FORECASTING 8 Purpose 1 8 2. Process 8 a. Steps 9 b. Segmentation 10 c. Inventory 11 .... D. FACTORS INFLUENCING THE FORECAST MODEL 11 E. WORK-ANALYSIS 12 F. SUMMARY 13 III. DATA COLLECTION, MODEL FORMULATION, AND METHODOLOGY 15 A. DATA 15 1. Data Files 15 2. Data Collection 16 Vll B. MODEL FORMULATION 2 1. Stocks 20 2. Attrites 21 3. Attrition Rate 22 4. Accessions 24 5. Forecasting 25 C. METHODOLOGY 26 IV. ANALYSIS, SCENARIOS, AND JOB COMPARISONS 29 A. ANALYSIS 29 1. Stocks, Attrites, and Accessions 30 2. Forecasts 31 3. Interpretation 32 a. Financial Group 32 b. Other Groups 32 (1) Safety, Fire, and Police Group. 33 (2) HRO Personnel Group 34 .... Administrative Group. 35 (3) Computer Operators/Specialists (4) Group. 36 (5) Engineers/Technicians Group. . 38 (6) Procurement/Supply Group. . . 39 (7) Public Works/Staff Group. . . 41 Vlll