Copyright © 2017 by Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick, New Jersey. All rights reserved under International and Pan-American Copyright Conventions. No part of this book may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without prior permission in writing from the publisher. All inquiries should be addressed to Transaction Publishers, 10 Corporate Place South, Suite 102, Piscataway, New Jersey 08854. www.transactionpub.com This book is printed on acid-free paper that meets the American National Standard for Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials. Library of Congress Catalog Number: ISBN: 978-1-4128-6538-8 (hardcover); 978-1-4128-6545-6 (paperback) eBook: 978-1-4128-6473-2 Printed in the United States of America Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Phillips, David L. (Writer on Turkish politics), author. Title: An uncertain ally : Turkey under Erdogan’s dictatorship / David L. Phillips. Description: New Brunswick, U.S.A. ; London U.K. : Transaction Publishers, [2017] | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2016055994 (print) | LCCN 2016057009 (ebook) | ISBN 9781412865388 (hardcover) | ISBN 9781412865456 (pbk.) | ISBN 9781412864732 Subjects: LCSH: Turkey--Politics and government--1980- | Erdofgan, Recep Tayyip. | North Atlantic Treaty Organization--Turkey. | Turkey-- Foreign relations--1980- Classification: LCC DR603 .P5 2017 (print) | LCC DR603 (ebook) | DDC 956.104/12--dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2016055994 Contents Introduction vii Part I. Domestic Issues 1 Erdogan 3 2 Secularism 15 3 Human Rights 33 4 Corruption 45 5 The Kurdish Question 57 Part II. Regional Conflicts 6 The Iraq War 79 7 Zero Problems with Neighbors 89 8 The Syrian Quagmire 117 9 Terror Ties 135 Part III. Crackdown 10 Consolidation 153 11 Under Siege 165 12 Ending Exceptionalism 177 Acronyms 187 Glossary of Individuals 189 About the Author 201 Index 203 Introduction The Republic of Turkey was forged in the crucible of conflict. As the Ottoman Empire collapsed at the end of the First World War, millions fled their homes in the Balkans, Caucasus, and Mesopotamia. The 1920 Treaty of Sèvres reduced Turkey to a rump state, encompassing merely a third of its territory under the Ottomans. Many Turks experience what is called the “Sèvres Syndrome.” They believe that the world is conspiring to diminish Turkey and divide the country. Turks developed a siege mentality. They feel beset by threats both real and imagined. Enemies lurk within and without. While modernization propelled the West, Turkey was left behind. Mustafa Kemal Ataturk (“the father of all Turks”) emerged during this moment of self-doubt. Ataturk launched the War of Independence, appealing to the wounded pride of Turks. The Great Powers were weary of fighting and did not oppose Ataturk’s ambitions. The 1923 Treaty of Lausanne nullified Sèvres, restoring control of many Ottoman lands to Turkey. “Kemalism” enshrined Ataturk’s Republican People’s Party (CHP) as guardian of the state and secular rule. After Ataturk’s death in 1938, the CHP was taken over by corrupt and self-interested politicians. The so-called deep state—a web of security services, politicians, bureaucrats, and criminal gangs—emerged as a powerful shadow force. With the National Intelligence Agency (MIT) monitoring oppositionists, the Turkish General Staff (TGS) was the ultimate arbiter and the deep state its enforcer. Turkey joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in 1952. It emerged as an indispensable ally of the United States during the Cold War. Turkey was also an important strategic partner. As a secular, pro-Western democracy, it had a moderating influence on Muslims in Europe and served as a bridge to Muslim majority countries in Central Asia. In the Cold War and decolonization context, Turkey like many coun- tries was subject to leftist influence. The military conducted a coup in vii An Uncertain Ally 1980, aimed at suppressing ideological divisions and violence. Turkey adopted a military constitution in 1982. The CHP ruled with an iron fist. Ethnic identity was denied. Sectarianism suppressed. Despite the paramount position of secular institutions, Kemalism as a state ideology could not deny the pious character of many Turks. Political parties emerged, inspired by Islamist values. The Welfare Party (Refah Partisi) tried to operate stealthily, skirting secular rules in the constitution. However, the secular establishment viewed it as threat. The Constitutional Court banned the Welfare Party in 1997 for undermining secular principles. Ethnic issues also polarized society. Turkey tried to deny the exis- tence of Kurds, who comprise about 20 percent of the total population. They were called “mountain Turks.” Kurdish villages were given Turkish names. Kurdish newborns were forced to accept Turkish names. Laws were adopted allowing land seizure and the deportation of Kurds on security grounds. The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a Marxist- Leninist group, emerged as the voice of Kurds, demanding political and cultural rights. The PKK was initially a separatist organization, which sought independence for “greater Kurdistan,” encompassing Kurdish territories in Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. Beginning in the 1980s, a civil war between the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) and the PKK claimed approximately forty thousand lives. Turkey was increasingly divided. Kurds chafed under Turkish domi- nation. Leftists opposed the military establishment. Muslims opposed secularists. Western-oriented Turks sought Euro-Atlantic integration, while others resented the West. Turks do not feel welcome in Europe. Nor are Turks a part of the Arab world. From the East, Turkey looks like a Western country. From the West, Turkey is decidedly Oriental. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) won national elections in 2002. Erdogan is a skillful politician who tapped feelings of inadequacy, alienation, and frustration. He appealed to the pride of Turks, asserting Turkish nationalism. Erdogan presented himself as a man of the people and a pro-Western modern Muslim. The United States was initially wary of Erdogan’s pious personality. However, Erdogan sent all the right signals. He reaffirmed Turkey’s commitment to joining the European Union (EU). He pledged coop- eration with international mediators on Cyprus. Erdogan rescued Turkey’s economy, which was reeling from unemployment and dou- ble-digit inflation. He built infrastructure, raised living standards, and viii Introduction expanded the delivery of basic services, such as water and electricity. He used Turkey’s EU candidacy to justify reforms, bringing Turkey’s military and bureaucratic establishment to heel. Under Erdogan, Turkey became a world power and a leading country in the G-20. He pursued an independent path, demanding international respect. The United States welcomed Erdogan’s constructive role in foreign affairs and commitment to democracy. Erdogan also had a positive approach to Turkey’s conflict with the PKK. He initiated a political dialogue that led to a ceasefire in 2003. Erdogan was acknowledged for his efforts to end the Kurdish conflict. He was celebrated in capitals the world over and nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. Many Turks heralded his accomplishments, putting him on a par with Ataturk. Turkish voters showed their appreciation for Erdogan’s leadership by giving the AKP a mandate in four national elections—2002, 2007, 2011, and 2015. However, the AKP’s electoral success did not strengthen Turkish democracy. Erdogan became increasingly authoritarian and Islamist. He developed a Hobbesian view of the world. According to Erdogan, Turkey was threatened on all fronts by “terrorists.” He took special umbrage at Fethullah Gulen, his former friend and ally, who lived in exile in the Poconos. Erdogan accused the Gulen movement of estab- lishing a state within the state to undermine the AKP. Erdogan is systematic assault on freedom of expression cowed Turkey’s once-vibrant civil society and independent media. The Press Freedom Index of Reporters Without Borders ranked Turkey 151 out of 180 countries in 2016. Hundreds of journalists were jailed for “insulting Turkishness” and nearly two thousand detained for “insulting the president.” Peaceful protesters in Gezi Park were victims of police brutality, which spread to sixty cities across the country. Corruption was rampant. A corruption scandal in 2013 touched Erdogan, his son Bilal, and members of the inner circle. Wiretaps disclosed sordid self-enrichment scandals, forcing four cabinet mem- bers to resign. Erdogan accused Gulen of masterminding the leaks to embarrass him and overthrow the government. Erdogan espoused a “zero problems with neighbors” policy. Yet Turkey found itself in conflict with every neighbor. Turkish F-16s downed a Russian war plane near the Turkish-Syrian border on November 24, 2015. The incident precipitated a major crisis in bilateral relations between Turkey and Russia. Turkey’s role in Syria’s civil war was a lightning rod for controversy with Russia, Iran, and the United ix