AN ANNOTATED TIMELINE OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH An Informal History Recent titles in the INTERNATIONAL SERIES IN OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Frederick S. Hillier, Series Editor, Stanford University Ramík, J. & Vlach, M. / GENERALIZED CONCAVITY IN FUZZY OPTIMIZATION AND DECISION ANALYSIS Song, J. & Yao, D. / SUPPLY CHAIN STRUCTURES: Coordination, Information and Optimization Kozan, E. & Ohuchi, A. / OPERATIONS RESEARCH/MANAGEMENT SCIENCE AT WORK Bouyssou et al. / AIDING DECISIONS WITH MULTIPLE CRITERIA: Essays in Honor of Bernard Roy Cox, Louis Anthony, Jr. / RISK ANALYSIS: Foundations, Models and Methods Dror, M., L’Ecuyer, P. & Szidarovszky, F. /MODELING UNCERTAINTY: An Examination of Stochastic Theory, Methods, and Applications Dokuchaev, N. / DYNAMIC PORTFOLIO STRATEGIES: Quantitative Methods and Empirical Rules for Incomplete Information Sarker, R., Mohammadian, M. & Yao, X. / EVOLUTIONARY OPTIMIZATION Demeulemeester, R. & Herroelen, W. / PROJECT SCHEDULING: A Research Handbook Gazis, D.C. / TRAFFIC THEORY Zhu, J. / QUANTITATIVE MODELS FOR PERFORMANCE EVALUATION AND BENCHMARKING Ehrgott, M. & Gandibleux, X. / MULTIPLE CRITERIA OPTIMIZATION: State of the Art Annotated Bibliographical Surveys Bienstock, D. / Potential Function Methods for Approx. Solving Linear Programming Problems Matsatsinis, N.F. & Siskos, Y. / INTELLIGENT SUPPORT SYSTEMS FOR MARKETING DECISIONS Alpern, S. & Gal, S. / THE THEORY OF SEARCH GAMES AND RENDEZVOUS Hall, R.W. / HANDBOOK OF TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE – Ed. Glover, F. & Kochenberger, G.A. / HANDBOOK OF METAHEURISTICS Graves, S.B. & Ringuest, J.L. / MODELS AND METHODS FOR PROJECT SELECTION: Concepts from Management Science, Finance and Information Technology Hassin, R. & Haviv, M. / TO QUEUE OR NOT TO QUEUE: Equilibrium Behavior in Queueing Systems Gershwin, S.B. et al. /ANALYSIS & MODELING OF MANUFACTURING SYSTEMS Maros, I. / COMPUTATIONAL TECHNIQUES OF THE SIMPLEX METHOD Harrison, T., Lee, H. & Neale, J. / THE PRACTICE OF SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT: Where Theory And Application Converge Shanthikumar, J.G., Yao, D. & Zijm, W.H. / STOCHASTIC MODELING AND OPTIMIZATION OF MANUFACTURING SYSTEMS AND SUPPLY CHAINS Nabrzyski, J., Schopf, J.M. & / GRID RESOURCE MANAGEMENT: State of the Art and Future Trends Thissen, W.A.H. & Herder, P.M. / CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURES: State of the Art in Research and Application Carlsson, C., Fedrizzi, M. & Fuller, R. / FUZZY LOGIC IN MANAGEMENT Soyer, R., Mazzuchi, T.A. & Singpurwalla, N.D. / MATHEMATICAL RELIABILITY: An Expository Perspective Talluri, K. & van Ryzin, G. / THE THEORY AND PRACTICE OF REVENUE MANAGEMENT Kavadias, S. & Loch, C.H. / PROJECT SELECTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY: Dynamically Allocating Resources to Maximize Value Sainfort, F., Brandeau, M.L. & Pierskalla, W.P. / HANDBOOK OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH AND HEALTH CARE: Methods and Applications Cooper, W.W., Seiford, L.M. & Zhu, J. / HANDBOOK OF DATA ENVELOPMENT ANALYSIS: Models and Methods Sherbrooke, C.C. / OPTIMAL INVENTORY MODELING OF SYSTEMS: Multi-Echelon Techniques – Ed. Chu, S.-C., Leung, L.C., Hui, Y.V. & Cheung, W. / 4th PARTY CYBER LOGISTICS FOR AIR CARGO Simchi-Levi, Wu, Shen / HANDBOOK OF QUANTITATIVE SUPPLY CHAIN ANALYSIS: Modeling in the E-Business Era * A list of the early publications in the series is at the end of the book * An Annotated Timeline of Operations Research: An Informal History Saul I. Gass Arjang A. Assad Robert H. Smith School of Business University of Maryland, College Park eBookISBN: 1-4020-8113-8 Print ISBN: 1-4020-8112-X ©2005 Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. Print ©2005 Kluwer Academic Publishers Boston All rights reserved No part of this eBook maybe reproducedortransmitted inanyform or byanymeans,electronic, mechanical, recording, or otherwise,withoutwritten consent from the Publisher Created in the United States of America Visit Springer's eBookstore at: http://ebooks.kluweronline.com and the Springer Global Website Online at: http://www.springeronline.com To Arianna, who brings joy to all, especially to her Granddad. To my mother, Derakhshandeh, the source of my informal history – for her courage and patience. This page intentionally left blank 1 Contents Preface ix 1. Operations research precursors from 1564 to 1873 1 2. Operations research precursors from 1881 to 1935 19 3. Birth of operations research from 1936 to 1946 45 4. Expansion of operations research from 1947 to 1950 61 5. Mathematical, algorithmic and professional developments of operations research from 1951 to 1956 79 6. International activities, algorithms, applications, and operations research texts and monographs from 1957 to 1963 111 7. Methods, applications and publications from 1964 to 1978 141 8. Methods, applications, technology, and publications from 1979 to 2004 175 Acronyms 197 Name index 199 Subject index 205 1The items in the Annotated Timeline have been divided into eight time-sequenced parts. Parts 1 and 2 (from 1564 to 1935) present the precursor scientific and related contributions that have influenced the subsequent development of operations research (OR). Parts 3 to 8 (from 1936 to 2004) describe the beginnings of OR and its evolution into a new science. They are so divided mainly for presentation purposes. This page intentionally left blank Preface “What’s past is prologue.” The Tempest, William Shakespeare, Act II, Scene I Dictionary definitions of a scientific field are usually clear, concise and succinct. Physics: “The science of matter and energy and of interactions between the two;” Eco- nomics: “The science that deals with the production, distribution, and consumption of commodities;” Operations Research (OR): “Mathematical or scientific analysis of the sys- tematic efficiency and performance of manpower,machinery, equipment, and policiesused in a governmental, military or commercial operation.” OR is not a natural science. OR is not a social science. As implied by its dictionary definition, OR’s distinguishing character- istic is that OR applies its scientific and technological base to resolving problems in which the human element is an activeparticipant. As such, OR is the science of decision making, the science of choice. What were the beginnings of OR? Decision making started with Adam and Eve. There are apocryphal legendsthat claim OR stems from biblical times – how Joseph aided Pharaoh and the Egyptians to live through seven fat years followed by seven lean years by the application of “lean-year” programming. The Roman poet Virgil recounts in the Aeneid the tale of Dido, the Queen of Carthage, who determined the maximum amount of land that “could be encircled by a bull’s hide.” The mathematicians of the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries developed the powerful methods of the calculus and calculus of variations and applied them to a wide range of mathematical and physical optimization problems. In the same historical period, the basic laws of probability emerged in mathematical form for the first time and provided a basis for making decisions under uncertainty. But what events have combined to form OR, the science that aids in the resolution of human decision-making problems? As with any scientific field, OR has its own “pre- history,”comprised of a collection of events, people, ideas, and methods that contributed to the study of decision-making even before the official birth of OR. Accordingly, the entries in An Annotated Timeline of Operations Research try to capture some of the key events of this pre-history. Many of the early operations researchers were trained as mathematicians, statisti- cians and physicists; some came from quite unrelated fields such as chemistry, law, history, and psychology. The early successes of embryonic OR prior to and during World War II illustrate the essential feature that helped to establish OR: bright, well-trained, curious,