ebook img

An Analysis of USMC Accidental Deaths: 2007 Update PDF

60 Pages·2008·0.4 MB·English
by  
Save to my drive
Quick download
Download
Most books are stored in the elastic cloud where traffic is expensive. For this reason, we have a limit on daily download.

Preview An Analysis of USMC Accidental Deaths: 2007 Update

An Analysis of USMC Accidental Deaths: 2007 Update Michael D. Bowes • Catherine M. Hiatt CRM D0018760.A2/Final September 2008 Approved for distribution: September 2008 Alan J. Marcus, Director Infrastructure and Readiness Team Resource Analysis Division This document represents the best opinion of CNA at the time of issue. It does not necessarily represent the opinion of the Department of the Navy. Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited. Specific authority: N00014-05-D-0500. Copies of this document can be obtained through the Defense Technical Information Center at www.dtic.mil or contact CNA Document Control and Distribution Section at 703-824-2123. Copyright © 2008 CNA Contents Summary.........................................................................................1 Background.....................................................................................1 Tasking and study approach...........................................................1 Summary of study findings.............................................................2 Organization of this report.............................................................5 Overview of the data on USMC vehicle deaths................................7 Data sources.....................................................................................7 Summary statistics on USMC vehicle deaths.................................8 Hazard models of vehicle deaths...................................................23 Hazard rate models.......................................................................23 Data issues......................................................................................26 Estimating risks for all vehicle-related deaths.............................28 Estimating risks for motorcycle deaths........................................36 Changes in hazard rates over time...............................................40 Appendix A: Non-motorcycle results .............................................45 Appendix B: List of categorical variables and their baselines.........47 References....................................................................................49 List of figures................................................................................51 List of tables.................................................................................53 This page left intentionally blank. ii Summary Background In 2003, CNA conducted a study that identified individual risk factors contributing to off-duty fatalities across the U.S. Marine Corps (USMC) [1]. Much has changed since 2003 in USMC lifestyles and driving practices. The USMC has been to war; the prevalence of mo- torcycle ownership has increased; and vehicle fatality rates have reached new highs. As a result, the Director of the USMC Headquarters Safety Division asked CNA to refresh the earlier study and to explore how at-risk fac- tors may have changed. The objective of this study is to determine, in an analytically sound manner, the variety of factors that explain motor- vehicle fatality rates. The hope is that this will aid in selecting and im- plementing tools and interventions to reduce deaths. Tasking and study approach We addressed the following tasks: • Build a data set. We built a data set characterizing individual Ma- rines and vehicle fatalities covering the time period from Octo- ber 1998 through September 2007. Individual personnel records are the principal source of data, although we also incorporate additional information from safety records. • Perform statistical analysis. We undertook a statistical analysis to es- timate the risk of a vehicle-related fatality. In the analysis, we look at the relationship of various individual characteristics and ca- reer events to risk. We use an approach referred to as survival or hazard rate analysis [2, 3], a technique often used to evaluate the effectiveness of medical treatment. In addition, we provide a summary graphical analysis of the USMC fatality data, with com- 1 parisons against equivalent civilian data, and an exploration of changes that have occurred over this time period. This study differs from our earlier work in a number of ways: • We focus on motor-vehicle fatalities. The previous study ad- dressed all off-duty deaths, considering motor-vehicle deaths secondarily. • We look separately at motorcycle fatalities, as well as at overall vehicle fatalities. Motorcycle-related fatalities have been increas- ing and their risk profile seems to differ from that of other vehi- cle deaths. • We look at differences in risk factors across geographical regions. We hope this will help indentify effective safety programs. • We explore how risk factors have changed over the study period. This was a period of transition with wartime deployments and motorcycle ownership both seeming to have an increasing effect on fatality rates. Summary of study findings Our primary interest is in the factors that explain vehicle fatality rates. Some of our results are summarized as follows: • Early career. A Marine’s risk of death is more than twice as high during the second half of their first year in service as it is at other times. There is a period of low risk shortly after joining a new command. These findings have not changed. • Post deployment. The period after returning from deployment is associated with substantial risk of fatality. The risk is particularly high in the interval 3 to 6 months following the return from de- ployment. • Occupational field. Aviation mechanics and motor transport me- chanics have high risks of a vehicle-related death. Infantry, artil- lery, personnel and administration, and aviation mechanics face the highest risk of motorcycle death, with their risk roughly dou- ble that facing most other Marines. 2 • Location. Marines at 29 Palms, Norfolk, and Camp Lejeune face the highest risk of automobile deaths.1 The risk of motorcycle death is highest at Camp Pendleton. • Pay grade. The E5 and E6 grades face the highest risk of a motor- cycle fatality. Warrant officers face the highest risk of any vehicle fatality. • Enlistment waivers. Individuals with an enlistment waiver for drug use have a 30 percent increase in risk of a vehicle fatality and a 50 percent higher risk of a motorcycle fatality as compared to those who enter without waivers. Individuals with felony waivers have a risk of motorcycle fatality more than four times higher than those with no waiver. These individuals account for a re- markable 7 percent of motorcycle deaths. • Demotions and promotions. Individuals who were demoted 3 to 6 months earlier face a risk of motorcycle fatality more than three times higher than others. There is a very low likelihood of fatality for individuals in the 3 months following promotion. • Race and ethnicity. In contrast to the previous study, we find no strong relationship between race or ethnicity and the risk of ve- hicle fatality. However, it is of note that no Blacks have been in- volved in fatal motorcycle accidents • Gender. Females aged 19 or 20 have a surprisingly high risk of automobile fatality, higher than that of males. On the other hand, motorcycle fatalities have been exclusively male. • Time of year. Spring and summer months are associated with more than a 50 percent increase in overall risk relative to the winter quarter. The risk of a motorcycle fatality is three times higher in the spring than in the winter. The statistically significant results are illustrated in figure 1. The figure shows, separately, the risks for vehicle fatalities and motorcycle fatali- ties. A hazard ratio of greater than one indicates a risk above baseline. A value of less than one means lower risk. 1. We also find inherently high risks for the Beaufort area, but fatality counts there are held down by the restrictive environment of recruit training. 3 Figure 1. Key risk factors for vehicle fatalities All vehicles LLooccaattiioonn BBeeaauuffoorrtt // PPaarrrriiss IIssllaanndd NNoorrffoollkk aarreeaa 2299 PPaallmmss // BBaarrssttooww // YYuummaa LLeejjeeuunnee// CChheerrrryy PPooiinntt // NNeeww RRiivveerr SSaann DDiieeggoo // CCaammpp PPeennddlleettoonn OOccccuuppaattiioonnaall ffiieelldd AAiirrccrraafftt mmaaiinntteennaannccee && aavviioonniiccss ((6600--6644)) MMoottoorr ttrraannssppoorrtt ((3355)) IInnffaannttrryy,, aarrttiilllleerryy,, aarrmmoorr ((0033,, 0088,, 1188)) CCaarreeeerr eevveennttss && ppaayy ggrraaddee WWaarrrraanntt ooffffiicceerrss EE11 ttoo EE22 --66 mmoonntthhss oorr mmoorree ssiinnccee jjooiinniinngg UUSSMMCC 33 ttoo 66 mmoonntthhss ssiinnccee ddeeppllooyymmeenntt PPrroommootteedd wwiitthhiinn llaasstt 33 mmoonntthhss 33 mmoonntthhss oorr lleessss iinn MMCCCC DDeemmooggrraapphhiiccss && wwaaiivveerrss FFeemmaallee,, aaggee 1199--2200 MMaallee SSiinnggllee wwiitthh nnoo ddeeppeennddeennttss DDrruugg oorr aallccoohhooll wwaaiivveerr OOnn tteemmppoorraarryy dduuttyy WWiitthhiinn aa yyeeaarr aafftteerr mmaarrrriiaaggee AAFFQQTT ssccoorree 11 ttoo 4400 AAFFQQTT ssccoorree 8855 ttoo 9999 PPhhyyssiiccaall ffiittnneessss ccllaassss 22 PPhhyyssiiccaall ffiittnneessss ccllaassss 11 PPhhyyssiiccaall ffiittnneessss ccllaassss 33 TTiimmee AApprr--JJuunn qquuaarrtteerr JJuull--SSeepp qquuaarrtteerr OOcctt--DDeecc qquuaarrtteerr 00..00 00..55 11..00 11..55 22..00 22..55 33..00 HHaazzaarrdd rraattee Motorcycles LLooccaattiioonn SSaann DDiieeggoo // CCaammpp PPeennddlleettoonn OOccccuuppaattiioonnaall ffiieelldd IInnffaannttrryy,, aarrttiilllleerryy,, aarrmmoorr ((0033,, 0088,, 1188)) PPeerrssoonnnneell aanndd aaddmmiinn ((0011)) && ffiinnaannccee ((3344)) AAiirrccrraafftt mmaaiinntteennaannccee && aavviioonniiccss ((6600----6644)) CCaarreeeerr eevveennttss && ppaayy ggrraaddee DDeemmootteedd 33 ttoo 66 mmoonntthhss aaggoo EE55 ttoo EE66 33 mmoonntthhss oorr lleessss iinn MMCCCC PPrroommootteedd wwiitthhiinn llaasstt 33 mmoonntthhss DDeemmooggrraapphhiiccss && wwaaiivveerrss FFeelloonnyy wwaaiivveerr DDrruugg oorr aallccoohhooll wwaaiivveerr BBllaacckk TTiimmee AApprr--JJuunn qquuaarrtteerr JJuull--SSeepp qquuaarrtteerr TTiimmee ttrreenndd----qquuaarrtteerrllyy 00..00 00..55 11..00 11..55 22..00 22..55 33..00 33..55 44..00 HHaazzaarrdd rraattee 4 Some other findings are as follows: • Vehicle fatalities by time of day. In looking at vehicle fatalities by time of day, the most striking feature of the data is the high death rate during the morning rush hours. The fatality rates in early morning hours are lower than we saw in the previous study, but still suggest that Marines are taking risks to make muster. • Comparison to civilian fatality rates. In general, USMC automobile death rates are below those for civilians of equivalent age. The same is not true for motorcycles deaths. In 2006, the USMC motorcycle fatality rate was 70 percent higher than the equiva- lent civilian rate. Motorcycle fatality rates are especially high among Marines over the age of 25, individuals who should set an example for younger Marines. • Increasing motorcycle fatality rates. There are some disturbing trends. Motorcycle fatality rates have been increasing at a rate of 13 percent a year, with the increase in deaths most pro- nounced in mid-level enlisted ranks (E4 to E6). The rate of in- crease in motorcycle deaths is also high for infantrymen. • Post-deployment effects. With increased numbers of Marines re- turning from deployment, it is no surprise that more deaths would be observed in the post-deployment period than we saw in our earlier study. Still, the spike in the number of deaths 3 to 6 months after return from deployment merits attention. Organization of this report In the first section, we present an overview of USMC accidental death statistics, with some comparison to civilian rates. In the second sec- tion, we describe our statistical models and results. In the statistical analysis, we evaluate (1) risk factors for all vehicle-related deaths, (2) risk factors for motorcycle deaths, and (3) whether risk factors are changing over time. 5 This page left intentionally blank. 6

Description:
Aircraft maintenance & avionics (60-64). San Diego / Camp Pendleton . Authority, Fatality Analysis Reporting System data. The data are USMC motorcycle death rates are generally well above those for civil- ians. The high fatality
See more

The list of books you might like

Most books are stored in the elastic cloud where traffic is expensive. For this reason, we have a limit on daily download.