ALABAMA: GOVERNOR DON SIEGELMAN (D) vs. REP. BOB RILEY (R) DEMOCRAT REPUBLICAN Gov. Don Siegelman Rep. Bob Riley www.siegelman.com www.bobrileyforgovernor.com CM: Josh Hayes CM: Sam Daniels Press: Jim Andrews Press: Leland Whaley Media:Shorr & Assoc. Media:Alfano Productions Saul Shorr Kim Alfano Polls: Hickman Brown Polls: Market Research Institute Harrison Hickman Vern Kennedy Money Raised: $4.2 million (as of 9/30) Money Raised: $3.4 million (as of 9/30) Last Race (1998) Pop. Vote Vote % Don Siegelman (D) 760,155 58% Fob James (R) 554,746 42% Race Outlook: TOSS-UP Thanks to budget problems, an ethics investigation and charges that he’s funneled state contracts to friends and campaign donors, Gov. Don Siegelman is fighting to keep his job against Republican U.S. Rep. Bob Riley. Recent polls have consistently shown the two in a statistical dead heat, however, as recently as May, Siegelman was down 8 points to Riley. Clearly, this is not good for a first-term governor who won his last election by 16 points. A mid-September University of Alabama-Birmingham poll had Riley up 45-43% while an early September University of Southern Alabama poll showed Riley ahead 44-41%. Riley has hammered away at Siegelman’s ethics problems which include fees he’d received from his law firm while running the state (after an investigation, he was cleared) and giving state contracts to political cronies without bids from others. One of Riley’s ads boasts that he wants to “end corruption,” he’s “an honest leader,” and he kept his term-limits promise; another features an endorsement from his wife - Siegelman has stayed afloat by attacking his challenger on a variety of issues. In his ads, the governor claims Riley has no plan to fix the state’s education problems – Siegelman has proposed a state lottery to pay for education. Other Siegelman ads seize on the leadership issue claiming that Riley has missed several important votes in Congress and he has failed to pay some income and property taxes. On the tax issue, it seems the truth is somewhere in between. In fact, Riley failed to pay his taxes on time; he didn’t avoid paying them altogether. In another recent Siegleman ad, he faces the ethics investigation head on by turning the table on his opponent. “The investigation? The prosecutor stepped down because of political and financial ties to Bob Riley. The ethics complaint? Governor Siegelman’s been cleared.” An interesting story developed at the end of September involving NRA President Charlton Heston. Heston was in Alabama for a GOP fund-raiser but met with Siegelman after the event, at the request of the governor. During the meeting, Siegelman received a signed endorsement from Heston, immediately drawing the ire of the Riley camp and the state GOP. The party chairman accused the governor of “acting underhandedly” in receiving the endorsement saying he took advantage of Heston, who was recently diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease. Heston’s spokesperson said the endorsement “shouldn’t be a surprise” to Riley and the state party. This one’s going down to the wire, with national Republicans feeling they can steal one from the Democrats, in an election year which doesn’t bode well for GOP gubernatorial candidates around the country. AYRES-McHENRY AND ASSOCIATES (R) DATE SIEGELMAN RILEY SAMPLE SIZE ERROR 10/14-17 41% 42% 900 likely +/- 3.3% GOVERNOR DON SIEGELMAN, Democratic incumbent seeking 2nd term Age: 56 Born: February 24, 1946; Mobile, Alabama Education: B.A., University of Alabama, 1968; J.D., Georgetown University, 1972 Military: Air National Guard, 1968-69 Family: Married (Lori); two children Hometown: Montgomery, Alabama Religion: Catholic Career: Executive Director, Alabama Democratic Party, 1973-78; AL Sec. of State, 1979-86; State Attorney General, 1987-94; practicing attorney, 1994-1998; Lieutenant Governor, 1994-1998; Governor, 1998-present • An Alabama native, Siegelman was born in Mobile, and has lived in the state his entire life. His first job was as a laborer at the Alabama State Docks. • While attending law school at Georgetown University, he worked as a Capitol Hill policeman, appointed by former Senator Jim Allen. He received a law degree from Georgetown in 1972, then went on to study international law at Oxford. • Siegelman has been active in politics since he was young. In 1971, he organized voter registration in Alabama, Mississippi and Florida, and he worked for the McGovern campaign in 1972. He also served as Executive Director of the Alabama Democratic Party for five years. • Siegelman made his first run for elective office in 1978, when he won the race for Secretary of State, a position he held for two terms. In 1984, his wife Lori suffered severe injuries in an auto accident involving a drunk driver. When Siegelman was elected attorney general in 1986, he fought for and helped pass tougher drunk driving laws. • Siegelman made his first bid for governor in 1990, but lost the Democratic nomination after placing second in a run-off against Paul Hubbert. Siegelman defeated incumbent Gov. Fob James in 1998. The embattled former governor barely survived an intra-party primary challenge, and was crushed by Siegelman in the general. • Siegelman now finds himself in the same position James was in four years ago. The governor’s tenure has been marked by accusations of cronyism in the meting out of state contracts. He also endured a state ethics investigation. Though he was exonerated, the aura of scandal continued to hang over his administration, making him one of the Democrats’ most vulnerable incumbents. U.S. REP. BOB RILEY, Republican challenger Age: 58 Born: October 3, 1944; Ashland, Alabama Education: B.A., University of Alabama, 1965 Military: None Family: Married (Patsy); four children Hometown: Ashland, Alabama Religion: Baptist Career: Rancher, 1965-present; City Councilmember, 1972-76; U.S. House of Representatives, 1996-present • Bob Riley was born and raised in Ashland, Alabama, where his family lived on farms and ranches for six generations. Riley married his high school sweetheart and started a door- to-door egg business, which later became one of the Southeast’s largest poultry operations. Riley has also run a trucking company, a car dealership and a real estate company, though he lists ranching as his vocation. • In 1996, Riley ran for and won his campaign to represent Alabama’s 3rd District in the U.S. House of Representatives. Riley was an unknown prior to this race, and had no political experience, except for sitting on the Ashland City Council in the 1970s. In his third Congressional election, Riley won close to 90 percent of the votes cast. He is the first Republican elected from Alabama’s 3rd District since Reconstruction. • Riley’s eldest daughter, Jenice Riley, died of cancer in August 2001. She was her father’s campaign fundraiser. • Riley is running on a platform of eliminating the marriage and estate taxes. Riley is a strong supporter of term limits; he is keeping the pledge he made in 1996 that he would serve only three terms in the House. He says his run for governor is a chance for him to “take on the challenges” of state government. • If Riley wins in November, he will be the first Congressman to ascend to Alabama’s governorship since 1894. ALASKA: LT. GOV. FRAN ULMER (D) vs. SEN. FRANK MURKOWSKI (R) Gov. Tony Knowles (D) is retiring. DEMOCRAT REPUBLICAN Lt. Gov. Fran Ulmer Sen. Frank Murkowski www.franulmer.com www.frankmurkowski.com CM: Deborah Bonito CM: Bill Gordon Press: Jason Moore Press: Dan Saddler Media:Sprocketheads Media:Edmonds Hackney Carolyn K. Robinson Art Hackney Polls: Lake, Snell, Perry Polls: Dittman Research Celinda Lake David Dittman Money Raised: $393,188 Money Raised: $1.2 million (as of 9/5) (as of 9/5) Last Race (1998) Pop. Vote Vote % Tony Knowles (D) 112,879 51% Robin Taylor (write-in) 43,571 20% John Lindauer (R) 39,331 18% Race Outlook: LEAN REPUBLICAN Four-term Senator Frank Murkowski is heavily favored to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Tony Knowles, in what is one of the Republicans’ best opportunities for a pick-up this year. Running against him is Lieutenant Gov. Fran Ulmer, who is the Alaska Democratic Party’s current political star. Public polling on this race has been scarce, but Murkowski has led throughout in this Republican-leaning state. It is testament to Ulmer’s strength as a candidate that this race has not turned into a rout. MOORE INFORMATION (R) DATE MURKOWSKI ULMER SAMPLE SIZE ERROR 10/14-16 50% 34% 300 likely +/- 6% LT. GOVERNOR FRAN ULMER, Democratic candidate – open seat Age: 55 Born: February 1, 1947; Madison, Wisconsin Education: B.A., University of Wisconsin, 1969; J.D., University of Wisconsin, 1972 Military: None Family: Married (Bill); two children Hometown: Juneau, Alaska Religion: Protestant Career: Policy Director for Republican Gov. Jay Hammond, 1975-81; JuneauMayor, 1983-85; State House of Representatives, 1987-94; Lt. Governor, 1994-present • Fran Ulmer was born and raised in Wisconsin. She attended the University of Wisconsin, where she earned a bachelor’s degree in 1969. Three years later, she earned a law degree from the same university. • Three years after completing her law degree, Ulmer went to work as the policy director and legislative liaison for Republican Gov. Jay Hammond. She held this position until 1981. • In 1983, Ulmer was elected mayor of Juneau, a post she held for two years. During her tenure as mayor, Ulmer focused on infrastructure development – from the city’s ports and harbors, to its downtown areas. • Ulmer was elected in 1987 to the Alaska House of Representatives, eventually advancing to the post of Minority Leader. She was one of the few women on the powerful Finance Committee. While in the state House, Ulmer’s pet issues were education, childcare and child abuse and neglect. She sponsored a bill protecting the rights of adults who were abused as children. • Ulmer served in the House for 7 years, leaving in 1994, when she was elected Lieutenant Governor. She is the first woman elected to statewide office in Alaska. • Though running as a Democrat – and with the help of Democratic women’s network EMILY’S List – Ulmer often trumpets her non-partisan tendencies. She notes her tenure with Hammond, and her stint as Juneau mayor – a nonpartisan office – as proof that she is able to work well with people of all political stripes. • Like her Republican opponent, Ulmer favors developing the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). She is also co-chair of the Denali Commission, a project initiated by GOP Senator Ted Stevens, the goal of which is to bring development and jobs to rural Alaska. Ulmer is also a member of Gov. Knowles’ Oil and Gas Policy Council, which is working to bring a gas pipeline into the state. SENATOR FRANK MURKOWSKI, Republican candidate – open seat Age: 69 Born: March 28, 1933; Seattle, Washington Education: B.A., University of Santa Clara, 1955 Military: Coast Guard, 1955-57 Family: Married (Nancy); six children Hometown: Fairbanks, Alaska Religion: Catholic Career: Bank executive, 1957-67; Commissioner, Alaska Department of Economic Development, 1966-70; Candidate, U.S. House of Representatives, 1970; President, Alaska Bank of the North, 1971- 80; United States Senate, 1980-present • Murkowski, an only child, was born in Seattle, Washington, where he spent the first nine years of his life. His father, a bank executive, moved the family to Ketchikan, Alaska in 1942 to take a post as executive vice president of First National Bank of Ketchikan. • After graduating from college, Murkowski enlisted in the Coast Guard. After his service ended in 1957, Murkowski (now married to the former Nancy Gore, also of Ketchikan) returned to Seattle, to take a position with Pacific National Bank. He and Nancy moved back to Alaska within a year. • In 1970, Murkowski ran for the U.S. House of Representatives. He won the Republican primary, besting four other candidates, but lost the general election to Democrat Nick Begich. • Murkowski would wait 10 years before he made another attempt at political office. He won an 8-way Republican Senate primary, then went on to win the seat in the general, drawing 54 percent of the vote. He has since won reelection by huge margins, winning his last race (1998) with 74 percent of the vote. • Murkowski has been elected to the Senate four times. He is currently Ranking Member of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, and sits on the International Trade Subcommittee of the Senate Finance Committee. Murkowski is also a former chairman of the Veterans Affairs Committee. • Murkowski is a recognized expert on Taiwan defense and business issues, as well as Vietnam/Pacific Rim policy. He is also a leading voice on issues of energy and natural resource development. • Murkowski has been a leader in the so-far unsuccessful fight to allow drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). ARIZONA: STATE ATTORNEY GENERAL JANET NAPOLITANO (D) vs. FORMER U.S. REP. MATT SALMON (R) vs. RICHARD MAHONEY (IND) Gov. Jane Hull (R) is retiring. DEMOCRAT REPUBLICAN Janet Napolitano Matt Salmon www.gojanet.org www.salmonforgovernor.com CM: Mario Diaz CM: Chris Bowen Press: Kris Mayes Press: Vernon Parker Media:Shorr & Assoc. Media:Message Media Saul Shorr Doug McAuliffe Polls: Lake, Snell, Perry Polls: Public Opinion Strategies Celinda Lake Glen Bolger Money Raised: $1.1 million Money Raised: $1.7 million (as of 10/10) (as of 10/10) INDEPENDENT Richard Mahoney (602) 258-1780 www.mahoneyforgovernor.com CM: Paul Koerner Press: Paul Koerner Media: Not available Polls: Not available Money Raised: $748,106 (as of 10/10) Last Race (1998) Pop. Vote Vote % Jane Dee Hull (R) 620,188 61% Paul Johnson (D) 361,552 36% Race Outlook: TOSS-UP The race to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Jane Dee Hull features several interesting angles: a female candidate in this, the “Year of the woman gubernatorial candidate”; an independent candidate who, while not polling well, is financially competitive; and the state’s “Clean Elections” rules which gives public funding to participating candidates. The Democratic candidate, state Attorney General Janet Napolitano, and the independent, former Secretary of State Richard Mahoney, are participating in the state’s “Clean Elections” system, with each receiving around $600,000 initially for their campaigns. The GOP candidate, former US Rep. Matt Salmon, declined to participate in the program, which exempts him from the stricter fund-raising limits in the system. There still is a cap on fund-raising for Salmon, however, and now it seems that Napolitano and Mahoney will benefit even more from the system since Salmon has already gone over the cap. Every dollar that Salmon spends over the cap gets matched and given to the other two candidates. And even better, any independent expenditure that attacks a participating candidate campaign (there has already been one TV ad against Napolitano) gets matched for the attackee as well. So even though she’s finished fund-raising, Napolitano isn’t at a disadvantage in the money race. And in a race where Salmon and Napolitano find themselves neck and neck in the polls, this system will work out in her favor. The state is facing a major budget problem – a $400 billion deficit that could balloon to $1 billion by the time the winner is inaugurated – and both Salmon and Napolitano say they have the best plan to fix it. Salmon pledges to cut taxes and government spending while Napolitano says she’ll close tax loopholes and audit state agencies to prevent waste. Salmon has received a lot of criticism for continuing to lobby for the embattled Qwest telecommunications company and for the city of Phoenix while running for governor. Napolitano ran an ad nailing him for his Qwest connection and Mahoney called him on it as well. Salmon’s response to Mahoney was that the independent candidate had been “hanging with the free pot people too long,” in reference to Mahoney’s support of legalizing marijuana. After a couple weeks of defending himself, Salmon eventually severed his lobbying ties at the end of September. The major party candidates are trying to win over the middle of the road voters in a state where there are 6% more registered Republicans than Democrats. While the Democratic Party was pleased to see the conservative Salmon beat his more moderate opponents in his September primary, he’s been trying to paint himself as more mainstream by calling himself a “Reagan Republican” and campaigning with maverick GOP Sen. John McCain. On the advertising front, the independent Mahoney caused quite a stir by releasing a series of ads attacking his opponents on the issue of polygamy. The ads mention a group of polygamists in Colorado City, Arizona and say they’re more dangerous than the Branch Davidians were in Waco. He says Salmon will ignore the issue because of his religion – he’s a Mormon – and Napolitano, as Attorney General, hasn’t done anything about it. Napolitano subsequently released an ad defending her record and saying that Mahoney’s ad was the most vicious in the state’s history. It should be noted that taxpayers, through the “Clean Elections” program, are paying for both the Mahoney and Napolitano ads. Some major politicians have paid plenty of attention to this race. Aside from McCain, Salmon has had President Bush visit for a late September, $700,000 fund-raiser. Napolitano held events with potential presidential hopefuls Sens. John Kerry (D-MA) and John Edwards (D-NC). And on Halloween, former President Clinton will attend a get-out-the-vote rally with her. Another note: the state opened “early voting” on Oct. 3 and it’s estimated that as much as 50% of the state will have already cast their ballots by Election Day. And, based on the polls, it’s anyone’s guess how the other half will vote when they walk into the ballot box on Nov. 5. BEHAVIOR RESEARCH DATE SALMON NAPOLITANO MAHONEY SAMPLE ERROR 10/7-13 39% 37% 5% 686 likely +/- 3.8% STATE ATTORNEY GEN. JANET NAPOLITANO, Democratic candidate Age: 44 Born: November 25, 1957; New York, New York Education: B.A., Santa Clara University, 1979; J.D., University of Virginia, 1983 Military: None Family: Single Hometown: Phoenix, Arizona Career: Law clerk, 1983-88; practicing attorney, 1989-93; United States Attorney for Arizona, 1993-98; State Attorney General, 1998- present • Janet Napolitano was born in New York City, and grew up in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Her family moved west to New Mexico when she was a small child. • Janet Napolitano graduated summa cum laude from the University of Santa Clara. She went on to receive her law degree from the University of Virginia. • After law school, Napolitano began a clerkship with Judge Mary Schroeder, a position she held for 6 years. Afterward, she spent four years in private practice at the law firm of Lewis and Roca. • Napolitano gained media attention in the early 1990s, when she successfully argued before the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals the so-called “Sanctuary” case, which held that churches should be protected from government searches. • In 1993, she was appointed United States Attorney, a position she held for 6 years before being elected Attorney General in 1998’s historic “all-female” election in Arizona. Napolitano was the only Democrat elected in what was an otherwise good year for Arizona Republicans. • During her tenure as Attorney General, Napolitano has earned a reputation as a tough prosecutor. She has made a priority of prosecuting drug traffickers, and those who manufacture drugs in homes where children are present. • Napolitano has also made a priority of streamlining the child protective services division, a task with which she has met with some success. Since her election in 1998, child dependency cases in Arizona have fallen 77 percent. • In her most high-profile case, Napolitano prosecuted mob hit-man Sammy “The Bull” Gravano. The former enforcer pled guilty early this year to financing a drug ring that introduced Ecstasy into Maricopa County.