AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE BEYOND 2015 ANew Perspective on Future Land Use Patterns ENVIRONMENT& POLICY VOLUME46 The titles published in this series are listed at the end of this volume. Agriculture and Climate Beyond 2015 A New Perspective on Future Land Use Patterns Edited by Floor Brouwer LEI, Wageningen UR, The Hague, The Netherlands and Bruce A. McCarl Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, U.S.A. AC.I.P. Catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. ISBN-10 1-4020-4063-6 (HB) ISBN-13 978-1-4020-4063-4 (HB) ISBN-10 1-4020-4368-6 (e-book) ISBN-13 978-1-4020-4368-0 (e-book) Published by Springer, P.O. Box 17, 3300 AADordrecht, The Netherlands. www.springer.com Logos used with permission from IGBP, IHDP and LUCC Printed on acid-free paper All Rights Reserved © 2006 Springer No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exception of any material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Printed in the Netherlands. Contents Contributors ix List of abbreviations xv Preface xvii 1. Introduction 1 Floor Brouwer and Bruce A. McCarl Part 1: Setting the scene 2. Agriculture, climate and future land use patterns: potential for a simulation-based exploration 5 Peter H. Verburg and Jan Peter Lesschen 3. Technology development and climate change as drivers of future agricultural land use 33 Frank Ewert, Mark Rounsevell, Isabelle Reginster, Marc Metzger and Rik Leemans 4. Agricultural transitions at dryland and tropical forest margins: actors, scales and trade-offs 53 Helmut Geist, Eric Lambin, Cheryl Palm and Thomas Tomich Part 2: Cases on future land use 5. World livestock and crop production systems, land use and environment between 1970 and 2030 75 Lex Bouwman, Klaas van der Hoek, Gerard van Drecht and Bas Eickhout 6. Agricultural change and limits to deforestation in Central America 91 David Carr, Alisson Barbieri, William Pan and Heide Iranavi v vi Contents 7. Rising food demand, climate change and the use of land and water 109 Hermann Lotze-Campen, Christoph Müller, Alberte Bondeau, Pascalle Smith and Wolfgang Lucht 8. Population and economic growth as drivers of future land use in India 131 Neeraj Sharma Part 3: Agricultural mitigation responses 9. Bottom-up methodologies for assessing technical and economic bioenergy production potential 147 Edward M.W. Smeets, Jinke van Dam, André P.C. Faaij and Iris M. Lewandowski 10. Changes in consumption patterns: options and impacts of a transition in protein foods 171 Harry Aiking, Xueqin Zhu, Ekko van Ierland, Frank Willemsen, Xinyou Yin and Jan Vos 11. Participatory approaches for a transition in agriculture: the case of the Netherlands 191 Jan Ros, Matthijs Hisschemöller, Floor Brouwer and Gert-Jan van den Born 12. Options and trade-offs: reducing greenhouse gas emissions from food production systems 211 Sanderine Nonhebel 13. U.S. agriculture and forestry greenhouse gas emission mitigation over time 231 Heng-Chi Lee, Bruce A. McCarl, Dhazn Gillig and Brian C. Murray 14. Biosphere greenhouse gas management: transformative change in Canadian northern Great Plains agriculture 249 Marie Boehm, Henry Janzen, Bob MacGregor and Murray Fulton Part 4: Policy and social responses 15. Policy efforts to achieve sustainable agriculture: an OECD perspective 265 Wilfrid Legg 16. Institutional and organizational change: biosphere greenhouse 279 gas management in Canadian northern Great Plains agriculture Murray Fulton, Patricia L. Farnese, Bob MacGregor, Marie Boehm and Alfons Weersink Contents vii 17. Performance standards and the farmer: design and application in 291 greenhouse gas mitigation Patricia L. Farnese Index 305 Contributors Harry Aiking is Associate Professor, Chemistry & Food, Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands (e-mail: [email protected]). Alisson F. Barbieri is Research Associate, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Chapel Hill, 27514, USA (e-mail: [email protected]). Marie Boehm is a Research Scientist on the Environment Team of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 51 Campus Drive, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada S7N 5A8 (e-mail: [email protected]). Alberte Bondeau is a Research Fellow at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 14412 Potsdam, Germany (alberte.bondeau@pik- potsdam.de). Gert-Jan van den Born is Senior Researcher, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, P.O. Box 1, 3720, BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands. Lex Bouwman is Senior Researcher, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, P.O. Box 1, 3720, BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands (e-mail: [email protected]). Floor Brouwer is Head of the Research Unit Management of Natural Resources, LEI, Wageningen UR, P.O. Box 29703, 2502 LS The Hague, The Netherlands (e-mail: [email protected]). David Carr is Assistant Professor of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara. Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA (email: [email protected]). Jinke van Dam is a former researcher at the Energy Supply Cluster of the Department of Science, Technology and Society, Copernicus Institute, Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80115, 3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands. Gerard van Drecht is Senior Researcher, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, ix x Contributors P.O. Box 1, 3720, BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands (e-mail: [email protected]). Bas Eickhout is Researcher, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, P.O. Box 1, 3720, BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands (e-mail: [email protected]). Frank Ewert is Senior Scientist, Plant Production Systems Group, Department of Plant Sciences, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 430, 6700 AK Wageningen, The Netherlands (e-mail: [email protected]). André P.C. Faaij is Co-ordinator of the Energy Supply Cluster of the Department of Science, Technology and Society, Copernicus Institute, Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80115, 3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands (e-mail: [email protected]). Patricia L. Farnese is the Senior Law Fellow at the Centre for Studies in Agriculture, Law and the Environment (www.csale.usask.ca) and Assistant Professor in the College of Law at the University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon SK Canada S7N 5A8 (e-mail: [email protected]). Murray Fulton is Professor of Agricultural Economics at the University of Saskatchewan, Agriculture Building, 51 Campus Drive, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada S7N 5A8. He is also the Director of the Centre for Studies in Agriculture, Law and the Environment at the University of Saskatchewan (e-mail: Murray. [email protected]). Helmut Geist is Executive Director of the Land-Use/Cover Change (LUCC) Project, University of Louvain, 3, Place Louis Pasteur, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium (e-mail: [email protected]). Dhazn Gillig is an Economist and Manager with American Express Corporation, Phoenix Arizona, USA (email [email protected]). Matthijs Hisschemöller is Senior Researcher, Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands (e-mail: [email protected]). Klaas van der Hoek, Senior Researcher Agricultural Sciences, Laboratory for Environmental Monitoring, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, P.O. Box 1, 3720, BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands (e-mail: [email protected]). Ekko van Ierland is Professor of Environmental Economics, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 8130, 6700 EW Wageningen The Netherlands (e-mail: [email protected]). Contributors xi Heide Iranavi B.A., is a Fullbright Scholar in Jordan, 2005 University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, USA (e-mail: [email protected]). Henry Janzen is a Research Scientist on the Environment Team of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, PO Box 3000, Lethbridge, Alberta, Canada T1J 4B1 (e-mail: [email protected]). Eric Lambin is Chair of the Land-Use/Cover Change (LUCC) Project and Professor at the Geography Department, University of Louvain, 3, Place Louis Pasteur, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium (e-mail: [email protected]). Heng-Chi Lee is an Assistant Professor of Applied Economics, National Taiwan Ocean University, Keelung, Taiwan (email [email protected]). Rik Leemans is Professor of Environmental Systems Analysis at Wageningen University, Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen UR, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands (e-mail: [email protected]). Wilfrid Legg is Head of Policies and Environment Division in the Agriculture Directorate of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), 2 Rue André Pascal, F-75775 Paris, France. (e-mail: wilfrid.legg@ oecd.org). Jan Peter Lesschen is PhD student, Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Nieuwe Achtergracht 166, 1018WV Amsterdam, The Netherlands (e-mail: [email protected]). Iris M. Lewandowski is Senior Researcher at the Energy Supply Cluster of the Department of Science, Technology and Society, Copernicus Institute, Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80115, 3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands (e-mail: [email protected]). Hermann Lotze-Campen is a Research Fellow at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 14412 Potsdam, Germany (e-mail: lotze-campen @pik-potsdam.de). Wolfgang Lucht is a Senior Researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 14412 Potsdam, Germany (e-mail: wolfgang.lucht@pik- potsdam.de). Robert J. MacGregor is Chief, Agriculture and Environmental Policy Analysis in the Strategic Policy Branch of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Building 74, 960 Carling Ave. Ottawa, Ontario, Canada K1A 0C6 (e-mail: [email protected])..