AFTER THE SHEIKHS ‘It is almost forty years since the publication of Fred Halliday’s landmark book Arabia With- out Sultans. Now, in the wake of the Arab spring, another young British academic has written an important account of prospects for the Gulf region … Orientalist special pleading doesn’t get a look in. This is an unsentimental story of hard-nosed political calculation, conspicuous consumption, opaque budgets and sovereign wealth funds.’ Ian Black, The Guardian ‘What is the secret of the Gulf monarchies’ survival? There are numerous reasons. The support of Western powers, oil wealth and an effective secret police are among them. But in this excep- tionally argued book, Christopher Davidson concentrates on the prime reason: the Gulf mon- archies enjoy considerable legitimacy from their populations. … This fine-tuned monarchical resilience, Davidson argues, cannot be sustained for much longer. Immense internal pressures are building up and the pressure-cooker is about to explode. Davidson marshals an impressive array of evidence.’ Ziauddin Sardar, The Independent ‘Britain and the US are uncritical friends of the hereditary Gulf rulers; but what if they are likely to collapse, as Christopher Davidson convincingly predicts? It would be folly to ignore the writing on the wall for these insatiably greedy elites; Davidson’s warning should be on the desk of every Foreign Office Minister.’ Lord Avebury, vice-chair of the All-Party Parliamentary Human Rights Group ‘Davidson argues that the Gulf regimes will be gone—at least in their current form—within the next two to five years. This audacious prediction should not be lightly dismissed. The dynamics he analyses and the facts he has gathered, based on long-term observation of the region, provide tantalising clues that profound change may indeed be at close hand.’ Dirk Vandewalle, Associate Professor of Government, Dartmouth College ‘After the Sheikhs is a book of tremendous value. It applies a rigorously constructed theoretical framework to a rich array of empirical data in order to assess the long-term survivability of some of the world’s last authoritarian holdouts. For anyone interested in understanding the post-2011 Middle East, this is essential reading.’ Mehran Kamrava, Director of the Center for International and Regional Studies, Georgetown University, Qatar ‘At a time when the Gulf Kingdoms arrogantly boast of having avoided the fate of their neigh- bours in the revolutions of the Arab Spring, this book provides a convincing counter-narra- tive and a powerful warning to rulers who treat their countries as personal fiefdoms.’ Waleed Abu Alkair, head of Monitor of Human Rights in Saudi Arabia ‘This book must be read by every Western policymaker betting on the status quo in the GCC, by every pro-democracy activist struggling to realise Davidson’s predicted outcome, and by every GCC citizen dreaming of a better future but made to fear the worst if change was to come.’ Ala’a Shehabi, writer, pro-democracy activist, founder, Bahrain Watch CHRISTOPHER M. DAVIDSON AFTER THE SHEIKHS The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies A A Oxford University Press, Inc., publishes works that further Oxford University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education. Oxford New York Auckland Cape Town Dar es Salaam Hong Kong Karachi Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Nairobi New Delhi Shanghai Taipei Toronto With offices in Argentina Austria Brazil Chile Czech Republic France Greece Guatemala Hungary Italy Japan Poland Portugal Singapore South Korea Switzerland Thailand Turkey Ukraine Vietnam Copyright © 2013 by Oxford University Press Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and certain other countries. Published by Oxford University Press, Inc 198 Madison Avenue, New York, New York 10016 Published in the United Kingdom in 2013 by C. Hurst & Co. (Publishers) Ltd. www.oup.com Oxford is a registered trademark of Oxford University Press All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of Oxford University Press. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Davidson, Christopher M. (Christopher Michael) After the sheikhs : the coming collapse of the gulf monarchies / Christopher Davidson. p. cm. Summary: “Noted Gulf expert Christopher Davidson contends that the collapse of these kings, emirs, and sultans is going to happen, and was always going to” — Provided by publisher. ISBN 978-0-19-933064-5 (hardback) 1. Persian Gulf States—Politics and government—21st century. 2. Saudi Arabia—Politics and government—21st century. 3. Monarchy—Persian Gulf States. 4. Monarchy—Saudi Arabia. I. Title. JQ1840.D38 2013 320.9536—dc23 2013014438 1 3 5 7 9 8 6 4 2 Printed in India on Acid-Free Paper CONTENTS Preface and Acknowledgements vii Acronyms ix Introduction 1 The revolutions that never came 3 Explaining monarchical survival 5 Further explanations 12 1. State Formation and Economic Development 17 Origins of the Gulf monarchies 18 Britain and the early order 22 Independence and state formation 26 Economic development trajectories 40 2. Explaining Survival—Domestic Matters 49 Distributing wealth 50 National elites 58 Co-opting expatriates 62 Cults of personality 66 Heritage and history 70 Co-opting religion 72 Environmental credentials 75 3. Explaining Survival—External Matters 79 Development assistance and international charity 81 Active neutrality: peacekeeping and mediation 85 Soft power in the West: strategic investments and development assistance 90 v CONTENTS Soft power in the West: cultural institutions 95 Soft power in the West: financing universities and manipulating research 98 Soft power in the East: China and Japan 104 4. Mounting Internal Pressures 111 Resources, populations, and subsidies 112 Voluntary unemployment 117 Squandering wealth 121 Poverty and real unemployment 129 Discrimination, statelessness, and sectarianism 134 Censorship and limiting expression 145 5. Mounting External Pressures 155 Welcoming foreigners and eroding legitimacy 156 Western bases and armaments 163 Antagonising Iran 169 Israel: the unholy alliance 175 Division and disunity 179 Interference and coups d’état 182 6. The Coming Collapse 191 Evolving opposition 193 Modernising forces 196 Countering the Arab Spring: the wrong side of history 201 Bahrain: rage and revolution 205 Oman: protests and promises 209 Saudi Arabia: the cracks appearing 211 Kuwait: ‘The People’s Spring’ 216 United Arab Emirates: opposition emerges 220 Qatar: champion or charlatan? 226 Conclusion 229 Postscript 239 Notes 245 Bibliography 281 Index 289 vi PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I began researching and writing After the Sheikhs: The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies in summer 2009 from the confines of my temporary office at Kyoto University. The original idea for the book, however, occurred to me back in 2002, when I was still writing up my PhD. Intrigued by several frank and discreet discussions when living in the UAE’s northernmost emirate of Ra’s al-Khaimah, I was determined to burrow beneath the hype and gauge the true extent of loyalty to tradi- tional monarchies in such states, especially in communities with less favourable economic circumstances. Since then, much has changed in the region, with oil price shocks, credit crunches, property bubbles, ter- ror campaigns, rampant sectarianism, and of course full blown revolu- tions on its doorstep. Although largely unforeseen and at first difficult to understand, I found that most of these events and their associated impacts helped to strengthen my thesis and—more importantly—they strength- ened my resolve to finish the manuscript as soon as possible. Although the book was never intended to be a crystal ball it is worth noting that the original, 2009 version forecast the collapse of most of the Gulf mon- archies within the next decade. In contrast, this final 2012 version con- tends that most of these regimes—at least in their present form—will be gone within the next two to five years. A very large number of individuals deserve my thanks. Over the past few years they have provided encouragement, fact-checking, fascinating pieces of information, and—on occasion—some necessary criticism. These include academics, human rights and pro-democracy activists, members of several political societies and religious organisations, government employees from all six gulf monarchies and neighbouring states, and of vii PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS course a small army of concerned citizens and expatriates. I am also very thankful to the following universities for inviting me to give lectures on earlier, prototype versions of this book: the London School of Econom- ics, Oxford, St. Andrews, Yale, Stanford, and Otago. The feedback I received from such well-informed audiences undoubtedly helped me shape my thoughts. Above all I thank my indefatigable publisher, Michael Dwyer, and all of his team at C. Hurst & Co. viii ACRONYMS ADBIC Abu Dhabi Basic Industries Corporation ADEC Abu Dhabi Executive Council ADFAD Abu Dhabi Fund for Arab Development ADFD Abu Dhabi Fund for Development ADFEC Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company ADIA Abu Dhabi Investment Authority ADNCC Abu Dhabi National Consultative Council ADNOC Abu Dhabi National Oil Company AQAP Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula Aramco Arabian American Oil Company ATP Association of Tennis Professionals Bapco Bahrain Petroleum Company BCHR Bahrain Centre for Human Rights CENTCOM US Central Command CEO chief executive office CIA Central Intelligence Agency (of the US) CNPC China National Petroleum Corporation COM Council of Ministers (of the UAE) DIC Dubai International Capital DIFC Dubai International Financial Centre DLF Dhofar Liberation Front DPW Dubai Ports World EAD Environmental Agency Abu Dhabi ECHR Emirates Centre for Human Rights EDB Economic Development Board (of Bahrain) EMAL Emirates Aluminium ix