A Grand Strategy for America A volume in the series cornell studies in security affairs edited by Robert J. Art, Robert Jervis, and Stephen M. Walt A full list of the titles in the series appears at the end of the book. Also by Robert J. Art The TFX Decision: McNamara and the Military. Boston: Little, Brown, 1968. Edited with Vincent Davis and Samuel P. Huntington, Reorganizing America’s Defense. Washington: Pergamon-Brassey’s, 1985. Edited with Seyom Brown, U.S. Foreign Policy: The Search for a New Role. New York: Macmillan, 1993. Edited with Patrick Cronin, The United States and Coercive Diplomacy. Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press, 2003. A Grand Strategy for America Robert J. Art A CENTURY FOUNDATION BOOK Cornell University Press ithaca and london the century foundation The Century Foundation, formerly the Twentieth Century Fund, sponsors and supervises timely analyses of economic policy, foreign affairs, and domestic political issues. Not-for-profit and nonpartisan, it was founded in 1919 and endowed by Edward A. Filene. Board of Trustees of The Century Foundation H. Brandt Ayers Richard C. Leone Peter A. A. Berle Jessica Tuchman Mathews Alan Brinkley, Chairman Alicia H. Munnell Joseph A. Califano, Jr. P. Michael Pitfield Alexander Morgan Capron John Podesta Hodding Carter III Richard Ravitch Edward E. David, Jr. Alan Sagner Brewster C. Denny Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr. Christopher Edley, Jr. Theodore C. Sorensen Charles V. Hamilton Kathleen M. Sullivan Matina S. Horner Shirley Williams Lewis B. Kaden William Julius Wilson James A. Leach Richard C. Leone, President Copyright © 2003 by The Century Foundation, Inc. All rights reserved. Except for brief quotations in a review, this book, or parts thereof, must not be reproduced in any form without permission in writing from the publisher. For information, address Cornell University Press, Sage House, 512 East State Street, Ithaca, New York 14850. First published 2003 by Cornell University Press First printing, Cornell Paperbacks, 2004 Printed in the United States of America Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Art, Robert J. A grand strategy for America / Robert J. Art. p. cm. “A Century Foundation Book.” Includes bibliographical references (p. ) and index. ISBN-13: 978-0-8014-4139-4 (cloth : alk. paper) ISBN-13: 978-0-8014-8957-0 (pbk.: alk. paper) 1.United States—Foreign relations—2001—Philosophy. 2. United States—Foreign relations—1989– 3. United States— Military policy. 4. World politics—1995–2005. I. Title. E895.A78 2003 327.73—dc21 2003000457 Cornell University Press strives to use environmentally responsible suppliers and materials to the fullest extent possible in the publishing of its books. Such materials include vegetable-based, low- VOC inks and acid-free papers that are recycled, totally chlorine- free, or partly composed of nonwood fibers. For further information, visit our website at www.cornellpress.cornell.edu. Cloth printing 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Paperback printing 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 For Suzanne, who has always been there for me Contents List of Figures and Tables ix Foreword by Richard C. Leone xi Acknowledgments xv Introduction 1 1 The International Setting 12 2 America’s National Interests 45 3 Dominion, Collective Security, and Containment 82 4 Selective Engagement 121 5 Isolationism and Offshore Balancing 172 6 Selective Engagement and the Free Hand Strategies 198 7 Implementing Selective Engagement 223 Appendix A. Civil Wars Active between 1991 and 2000 249 Appendix B. International Wars Active between 1991 and 2000 252 Notes 253 Index 305 vii Figures and Tables figure 1.1 World Exports as a Share of Gross World Product, 1830–1913, 1950–2000 21 figure 1.2 Annual War Occurrence, 1945–2000 40 table 1.1 Foreign Assets of Deposit Banks as a Share of Gross World Product, 1960–1994 22 table 1.2 World Direct and Portfolio Investment Flows, 1960–1999 23 table 1.3 Investment Flows as a Share of Gross World Product, 1970–1999 23 table 1.4 Daily Currency Turnover, 1986–2001 24 table 1.5 The G-7 and International Trade, 1937–2000 25 table 1.6 World Exports among and between Industrial and Developing States as a Percent of Total World Exports, 1960–2000 26 table 1.7 International and Civil Wars by Region, 1991–2000 39 table 1.8 International Conditions and America’s Interests 43 table 2.1 Ranking America’s National Interests 46 table 2.2 Energy Dependence and Oil Import Dependence, 1970–1999 (selected countries) 60 table 2.3 Percent of Total Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Source, 1973 and 1999 (selected countries) 61 table 2.4 America’s Interests and the Prime Threats to Them 79 table 3.1 A Comparison of Eight Grand Strategies 84 ix