18564-Ecosystem Science 4color 1/4 NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL A CENTURY OF ECOSYSTEM SCIENCE NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS The National Academy Press publishes the reports issued by the National Academies—the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, the Institute of Medicine, and the National Research Council, all operating under a charter granted by the Congress of the United States. www.nap.edu Planning Long-Term Research in the Gulf of Alaska NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL A CENTURY OF ECOSYSTEM SCIENCE NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS A CENTURY OF ECOSYSTEM SCIENCE Planning Long-Term Research in the Gulf of Alaska Committee to Review the Gulf of Alaska Ecosystem Monitoring Program Polar Research Board Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology Division on Earth and Life Studies National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS • 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. • Washington, DC 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Acad- emy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract/Grant No. CMRC/WASC/NOAA 50ABNF-0-00013 (BAA00360) between the National Academy of Sciences and Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Trustee Council. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number: 0-309-08473-3 Copies of this report are available from: Polar Research Board, TNA 751 500 5th Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 202-334-3479 or National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Lockbox 285 Washington, DC 20055 800-624-6242 202-334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) http://www.nap.edu Cover: The background is a SeaWiFS satellite image showing the brilliant phyto- plankton bloom in the Gulf of Alaska. This photo was provided by the SeaWiFS Project, National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Goddard Space Flight Center, and ORBIMAGE. The second image, the inlay of the two Orcas, Orcinus orca, affectionately known as Maverick and his wingman Iceman, was taken in June 1992 by Retired Commander John Bortniak of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Corps. Photo courtesy of NOAA photo library. Cover design by Van Nguyen of the National Academy Press. 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It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its mem- bers, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advis- ing the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Insti- tute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sci- ences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal gov- ernment. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the Na- tional Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in provid- ing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering com- munities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. COMMITTEE TO REVIEW THE GULF OF ALASKA ECOSYSTEM MONITORING PROGRAM Members MICHAEL ROMAN, Chair, University of Maryland, Cambridge DON BOWEN, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia ADRIA A. ELSKUS, University of Kentucky, Lexington JOHN J. GOERING, University of Alaska, Fairbanks GEORGE HUNT, University of California, Irvine SETH MACINKO, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett DONAL MANAHAN, University of Southern California, Los Angeles BRENDA NORCROSS, University of Alaska, Fairbanks J. STEVEN PICOU, University of South Alabama, Mobile THOMAS C. ROYER, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia JENNIFER RUESINK, University of Washington, Seattle KARL TUREKIAN, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut Staff CHRIS ELFRING, Director, Polar Research Board DAVID POLICANSKY, Associate Director, Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology ANN CARLISLE, Administrative Associate v POLAR RESEARCH BOARD Members ROBIN BELL, Chair, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York RICHARD B. ALLEY, Pennsylvania State University, University Park AKHIL DATTA-GUPTA, Texas A&M University, College Station HENRY P. HUNTINGTON, Huntington Consulting, Eagle River, Alaska AMANDA LYNCH, University of Colorado, Boulder ROBIE MACDONALD, Fisheries and Oceans, Canada, Institute of Ocean Sciences, Sidney, British Columbia MILES MCPHEE, McPhee Research Company, Naches, Washington CAROLE L. SEYFRIT, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia Ex-Officio Members MAHLON C. KENNICUTT, Texas A&M University, College Station ROBERT RUTFORD, University of Texas, Dallas PATRICK WEBBER, Michigan State University, East Lansing Staff CHRIS ELFRING, Director ANN CARLISLE, Administrative Associate 1 ROB GREENWAY, Project Assistant 1 Until November 2000. vi BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY Members GORDON ORIANS (Chair), University of Washington, Seattle JOHN DOULL (Vice Chair), University of Kansas Medical Center, Kansas City DAVID ALLEN, University of Texas, Austin INGRID C. BURKE, Colorado State University, Fort Collins THOMAS BURKE, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland WILLIAM L. CHAMEIDES, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta CHRISTOPHER B. FIELD, Carnegie Institute of Washington, Stanford, California DANIEL S. GREENBAUM, Health Effects Institute, Cambridge, Massachusetts BRUCE D. HAMMOCK, University of California, Davis ROGENE HENDERSON, Lovelace Respiratory Research Institute, Albuquerque, New Mexico CAROL HENRY, American Chemistry Council, Arlington, Virginia ROBERT HUGGETT, Michigan State University, East Lansing JAMES H. JOHNSON, Howard University, Washington, D.C. JAMES F. KITCHELL, University of Wisconsin, Madison DANIEL KREWSKI, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario JAMES A. MACMAHON, Utah State University, Logan WILLEM F. PASSCHIER, Health Council of the Netherlands, The Hague ANN POWERS, Pace University School of Law, White Plains, New York LOUISE M. RYAN, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts KIRK SMITH, University of California, Berkeley LISA SPEER, Natural Resources Defense Council, New York, New York Senior Staff JAMES J. REISA, Director DAVID J. POLICANSKY, Associate Director and Senior Program Director for Applied Ecology RAYMOND A. WASSEL, Senior Program Director for Environmental Sciences and Engineering KULBIR BAKSHI, Program Director for the Committee on Toxicology ROBERTA M. WEDGE, Program Director for Risk Analysis K. JOHN HOLMES, Senior Staff Officer SUSAN MARTEL, Senior Staff Officer SUZANNE VAN DRUNICK, Senior Staff Officer RUTH E. CROSSGROVE, Managing Editor vii