Historic, Archive Document Do not assume content reflects current scientific knowledge, policies, or practices. aSB763.C2F45 ) United States 1991 CASPR Spray Aircraft : Ny Department of fy ieeea t Efficiency Model - Validation Forest Service Study Forest Pest Management Davis, CA FPM 92-8 July 1992 FPM 92-8 C.D.L Technical Note No. 91-10 July 1992 1991 CASPR Spray Aircraft Efficiency Model - Validation Study by Thomas B. Curbishley Continuum Dynamics, Inc. P.O. Box 3073 Princeton, NJ 08543 Prepared under Contract No. 53-0343-1-00153 for USDA Forest Service Forest Pest Management 2121C Second Street Davis, CA 95616 §SO MT Of-f@ oA won iscsi T 1D SRT yiut = fore vars AIZAD fee! nottebileV - isboM pomak:a tta * wD, d yoléuktncD) .& znnodT cml oumen y cuumitney> taba bersgord EtI00-1-E860-£% 0 tagun0D Summary - Predictions of the computer code CASPR (Computer Assisted Spray Productivity Routine) were compared to observed data taken during the 1991 Gypsy Moth Eradication Program run by the Utah Department of Agriculture, Division of Plant Industry. After some tuning, the CASPR model was able to predict the total times of the aerial spray operations to within 20 percent. Improvements with the predictive model will come with additional, carefully monitored field data. The author wishes to extend his appreciation to those individuals connected with the 1991 Gypsy Moth Eradication Program in Salt Lake City, Utah for their cooperation with this validation study. Without their assistance, this data collection and validation would not have been possible: John Anhold, Steve Munsen, Mark Quilter and Patricia Skyler. smntie divitowborl yvewe ba 2A weagenOD) S4RAD shes wives =— ig onoe : hoAu sltb.eyraedu balt oM saa!y e7q ytD o [0n8o iasidv}i ]s ,aimd lsaohnagtdtoaAe sb ow i: nwante ersi a rg. ouCt s Ybatiivgere mrre‘rees rine tharyly | btoo c eset?o vaLneishote nyo ds?ci m odtthiwe r sioafg esxisdvao ragde Isjbeocme a8l4 2O e eeeg aioab e‘rS ue clin elidiouss mati 2h hiw rhniowt unes bemennos stevsbeitv itbaals se(itti ) ofs oelaeld tris? agash unaigtbo ov’a ta 0e e a adee A onTD 10:8 ur bic , otroyrv ie"i l rlew uev2 eet1t6i0e ® sAthaabM e ic,dntse 4nuM B rsetv Seait?d tipor t tosnp igWi c .ya re by azed ovad i Introduction Predicting the cost and time required for an aerial spray application is a concern to anyone planning such an operation. The computer code CASPR (Computer Assisted Spray Productivity Routine, Ref. 1 and 2) has been developed by the USDA Forest Service to help plan such missions. The 1991 Gypsy Moth Eradication Program conducted by the Utah Department of Agriculture, Division of Plant Industry and the USDA Forest Service (Ref. 3), provided an opportunity to exercise the CASPR model in a real-world situation. Pon describes the methods used to gather and analyze data, and the analysis and indings. Objective The objective of this study is described in three parts: 1) Exercise the CASPR computer code under real-world conditions and compare ‘its predictions to observed values. | 2) Understand conditions under which the model can and cannot be expected to perform well. 3) Suggest possible enhancements to the model that would improve its predictive ability. Scope The data for this validation study was gathered by observing spray operations conducted during the 1991 Gypsy Moth Eradication Program by the Utah Department of Agriculture, Division of Plant Industry (Ref. 3). This program targeted for treatment 29,925 acres that encompass portions of Davis, Salt Lake, Summit, Utah, and Wasach counties, Utah. Its purpose was to eradicate gypsy moths in their present location in these counties and prevent further spread within the state. : Code Operation "The Baltin-Amsden Formula" (Ref. 4) describes a method for estimating the cost of an aerial spray operation. Banaugh (Ref. 5), under USDA Forest Service contract, © modified the Baltin-Amsden formula to account for irregularly shaped and topologically varied spray areas. The CASPR code implements Banaugh's procedure on a personal computer. In order to predict time and cost elements of a-spray operation, CASPR requires as input specific data including application rate, tank capacity, flying speeds, hourly costs, turning times, and the number and lengths of spray paths to be flown. 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