Improving Agrometeorological Bulletins Perspectives from RA VI (Europe) Zoltán Dunkel1 Abstract A questionnaire with 13 questions was circulated in the RA VI region as well as in the other regions. The original questionnaire suggested by the WMO Division for Agricultural Meteorology was a little modified. The targeted audience was representatives of the `experts in agrometeorology`. As in case of any questionnaire it is always difficult to find the appropriate channel to get useful information. To collect as much information as possible not only the National Representatives in the Region but the members of RA VI Working Group of Agricultural Meteorology and members of the COST Action 718 were asked formally and informally as well. We have got 31 answers from 30 countries and one from the editor of MARS Bulletin. The Region has got 49 members. It means that we have got answers from more then 60 per cents of the asked region. The evaluation of the answers was not easy because from many countries not only one short answer was given but sometimes two-three answers. The people were asked not only to answer the questionnaire but submit few examples. The total amount of the submitted materials, the answers and the examples, takes more then 500 pages. This paper evaluates the collected information about the state-of the art of the agrometeorological bulletins in the RA VI but we can cover only that part of the Region where we have got answer from. Introduction The paper summarises the information could be drawn from a survey conducted among the countries in the WMO RA VI Region. The evaluation follows the questions that were given in the questionnaire. It had 13 questions but the answers are grouped. To help the understanding of the survey two Annex are added to the evaluation. The first one summarises the answers, the second one shows few examples. Of course there was not enough place to show every submitted examples. 1 Hungarian Meteorological Service H-1525 Budapest PO Box 38, Hungary Tel : +36 134 64660, Fax : + 36 134 64669, E-mail : [email protected] 101 Agrometeorological Units The majority of the meteorological institutes and services in RA VI operate independent ‘agrometeorological unit’. Among the 30 answering countries, 17 operate independent units, 13 do not. Except one small country, every respondent informed that somebody deals with the ‘agrometeorology’ within his/her service. Sometimes there is a heavy complaint among the agrometeorologists that nobody deals with the ‘agrometeorology’ but to the surprise of the author, the majority of the responses reported independent units for agricultural meteorology. Taking into consideration that the evaluation focused on the bulletins and the national meteorological institutes and services, we have got answer only from one side of our world. Using this questionnaire we could collect information from the NMHSs but very few from the university and research institutes. Notwithstanding this limitation, we have got a more or less good impression about the state-of the art of the agrometeorological bulletins’ organisation background. It appears that the situation is satisfactory in RA VI. Agrometeorological Bulletin Concerning the ‘Bulletins” question, 23 countries issue some kind of bulletins. We have got negative answer for this question from 7 countries. More or less the same statistic could be given about the involvement of extension services. In nineteen countries the agricultural research institutions and extension services are involved in the preparation of the ‘Bulletins’. Sometimes very difficult to highlight what is behind the statistics. Without any evaluation, in the Appendix some extracts are shown from the submitted answers. In case of few countries not only one central bulletin is issued but some regional bulletins are prepared as well. The frequency of the ‘bulletins’ differs very much from country to country: Monthly or decadal issue (5 countries), five-day or weekly issue (9), 3-4 times per week (3), daily (6) and more then one issue per day (one) were reported. In case of the other 6 countries the frequency of the issue was not clear. One respondent calculated only with the traditionally printed bulletins which contains phenological information beside the climate summary with some evaluation from point of view of weather influence on agricultural activity. Others reported the modern techniques too, the internet or SMS system as ‘bulletins’. The types of Bulletins The form, size, and contents of the bulletins change from country to country but there is a more or less common structure of every bulletin issued in form of hardcopy or disseminated electronically. The majority of the 102 respondents (15 countries) gave a short description of their bulletin, the rest (13 countries) submitted smaller or bigger examples or added the address of web side. The submitted homepage addresses are given in Annex 2 (short summary of the answers). Of course it would be impossible to show all submitted examples but as an illustration of the collection, few copies of the typical part of the submitted bulletins are presented. (Apologies to those whose bulletins are not shown in this present paper). As a conclusion we can summarise that the ‘Agrometeorological Bulletin’ should consist of two parts. The first part could be a diagnosis, the second part a forecast. Both parts could contain beside the meteorological data, phenological information and yield parameters. The diagnosis could be short or detailed, regarding the impact of the meteorological factors in the last period (day, week, moth or season) upon the evolution of the growth status of the main crops, estimation of agrometeorological conditions for the growth, development and yield formation of the crops, the sequence of the phenological phases, available soil moisture and soil water deficit at various depths, the advance or delay of the vegetation development and indication of favourable weather conditions for each crop. Beside the meteorological data, the bulletin should deal with the soil moisture as well. The forecasting part could contain information on the perspectives of the meteorological conditions for the next period, day and week. Among the possible meteorological information we have to mention the minimum and maximum expected temperature and rainfall probability, prediction of phenological stage, rate of growth and development of crops and their expected yields and dates of harvesting, expected available water content, as well as certain necessary recommendations for the farmers for the use of different technologies in accordance with the new conditions. Various annexes on daily values of mean, minimum, maximum and normal temperature (as graphics) and distribution of precipitation, available soil moisture and water deficit over the examined region are also included in the bulletin. In both parts, various types of maps are always a core part of the bulletin. The Target Audience of the ‘Bulletin’ For this question ‘no’ answer was given from 4 countries. One country gave the ‘subscription possible’ answer which means that if somebody is interested in the bulletin, the person can get it but the distributor is not interested in the type of the customer. The ‘farmer’, the real and desired end- user was mentioned only in 9 cases. The target of the bulletin is the government in 7 countries. The extension services or private companies was mentioned in 12 countries. Research institute was marked in 7 countries. The answer to this question was not restricted to one user. The ‘typical’ answer 103 was to mention at least two or three possible users of the bulletin. The results of this question was not really surprising that the user of the bulletin is not ‘the farmer’ himself. Taking into the consideration the frequency of the bulletins, and the distribution method, it is not really surprising. On the other hand, one has to ask whether it is really the job of the agrometeorologist community to reach the real end users. Maybe we have to reach only the effective intermediate audience eg., extension services. Feedback from the Users and Economic Value of Bulletin On the question of regular efforts to collect feedback from the users, many countries (20) replied in the negative. Only one third of the answering countries, 10 countries, gave a positive answer for this question. This result somehow coincides with result of the answer given for the previous question that the target audience of the ‘Bulletin’ is ‘the farmer’ in case of 9 countries. This of course does not mean that the agrometeorologist community is not interested in the results of its efforts to produce a nice and useful bulletin. It would be very nice to collect feedback regularly from the users and show a good cost/benefit ratio. Regarding the economic value of the ‘bulletin’, a majority of the countries (16) responded that no effort is made to collect such information. Very discrete answer came form 6 countries (some, it is difficult, partly, etc). The author participated in a cost/benefit ratio examination of meteorological products and has got his experience about the difficulties of such type evaluation. Hence he agrees with the answer of one country: ‘that’s hard to do’. This question is much more difficult than the previous one. Only one country gave a quantitative response in saying that the use of agrometeorological prognosis enables reducing loses in agriculture by 20-30 %. Extreme Events Different answers were given for this question. To evaluate the answers, only two categories were used. If the ‘bulletin’ deals with the extreme events in anyway the answer was scored as ‘yes’. The answer was also regarded as ‘yes’, if any activity was reported under the flag of dissemination of agrometeorological information concerning this theme. We have added one score to the ‘negative’ answer if dealing with extreme events was mentioned as regular warning activity of the meteorological institute, service. Using this type of categorisation, we have got 17 ‘yes’ answers for this question and 13 ‘no’ answers. The mentioned possible extreme events were drought, forest fires and floods. Nobody mentioned frost as a possible dangerous event. 104 Use of New Techniques We have received various answers for this question. From 9 countries came definitive ‘no’ answer for the possible use of modern techniques. Some countries gave a very detailed answer, the others submitted only list of the tools. The direct use of remote sensing techniques for agricultural meteorology aren’t yet fully developed. Few countries mentioned it as a possible complementary tool for the preparation of agrometeorological information. We can mention one exception. It is the MARS bulletin. It is not really surprising because the basic activity of the EU Joint Research Centre is the application of remote sensing. Unfortunately it is not yet public information. Beside the JRC, few other countries use NOAA AVHRR data, making some efforts to systematically compute NDVI and use this information to detect the state-of the art of vegetation or use it as input parameters in plan models. Different types of simulation models of soil moisture, plant-growth and pest and disease interactions are used in few countries as an important tools both in standard information service (via the bulletin) and giving extraordinary custom reports or studies for crop commodities, governmental organisations, plant protection research and service. It is possible that in many countries the GIS is used for agrometeorological applications but perhaps not reported in their responses. Limitations Unfortunately 9 countries did not give any answer for the question about the shortcomings and limitation in the current methods from the few responses we can conclude that the real limitation factor in issuing high quality and detailed bulletins, is the lack of human resources, the suitable trained and skilled expert. Concerning the bulletins distributed in printed and in hardcopy form few respondents mentioned the lack of funds for printed materials as limitation and added that it is necessary to find financial support from public authorities. Many said that the publishing of the hard copy should be continued until all the farmers are connected to the Internet. This approach concerns the basic problem of the usefulness of the traditional type bulletin in the everyday agricultural practice. The farmer subscribes to the bulletin almost rarely, partly for lack of money, but the main reason is probably in rather late processing and delivery of it by mail. Internet version is often not readily available to the farmers due to lack of commodity. Delays in printing of up to 3 or more, sometimes 7 days, minimises the possibility to present meteorological forecasts in the bulletins. It is not true for the Internet version. This leads us to the general evaluation of processing and dissemination of agrometeorological information which is a much wider theme than the 105 evaluation of the ‘bulletin’. Few respondents mentioned the less difficult, but existing problem concerning the everyday preparation of the bulletin, i.e. time availability, problems in the measurements of special parameters of particular relevance to agrometeorology, lack of knowledge of local conditions, difficulties in obtaining of phenological data, etc. Other limitations include the personnel available to produce the regional texts and fax sheets, although the models run automatically each morning for filling tables. Shortcomings in quality are sometimes the precipitation forecasts of the numerical model. Comments and Suggestions Among the 30 answering countries 12 did not added any comments and suggestion to the methods of preparing of agrometeorological bulletin. We can divide the suggestions into two groups. The first group deals with the dissemination techniques of the bulletin, the second gives idea on how to improve the content and the preparation of the bulletin. Maybe the real background of the present survey was collecting ideas to standardise the format of the bulletin. Only two respondents made an explicit mention of the need for standardisation of the bulletin format. Concerning the distribution of bulletins, all respondents agree that the best way of effective distribution of the agrometeorological information is the electronic distribution: web or on- line information. In case of the preparation and content, we need good quality data, meaning that they should reach a certain degree of accuracy. There is no need for a lot of stations in a plain valley, but the coverage should be greater in an area with a complex topography. There is a lack of appropriate methods of interpolation. Finally, the methods of dissemination and presentation of the agrometeorological information should be revised and updated. Among the special needs of agricultural meteorology, it was mentioned that short range forecasts of precipitation and better measurements and forecasts of the relative humidity are of importance. Additional methods of analyses and visualisation (including GIS technique) of the agrometeorological information should be applied. For example, some additional sophisticated methods for data interpolation could be used for data mapping. Some tables and graphs attracting the users can be also useful. A comparison between current soil and crop status with long-term data or particular time slice can be also helpful to determine the relevant departures. Animated figures can be also helpful when the bulletin is posted on the Internet. On the web page of any bulletin posted on the Internet a counter and a link for a feedback should be used. 106 Conclusions Many examples which were submitted proved that the traditionally prepared and distributed ‘agrometeorological bulletin’ continues to be used in many countries in the region. In few countries, reports are made available on the web sites. Nobody reported that the traditional hard copy format is out of date and it is high time to stop issuing of it. But from the answers it is apparent that the colleagues dealing with the problem never thought only of the traditionally prepared ‘bulletin’ they tried to evaluate the whole information system of ‘agrometeorology’. Our regular task is to supply the user with really useful information independent of its format. In order to improve agrometeorological bulletins, the following suggestions were made: - developing procedures to identify user needs and requirements - improving communication between agrometeorologists and users of agrometeorological information - promotion and integration of new techniques (GIS, remote sensing and satellite imagery applications) in operational agrometeorology in order to identify, assess, monitor and prevent of risks; - use of improved methods, procedures and techniques for the dissemination of agrometeorological information - more active applications of models for yield forecasting, water balance, etc. From the point of view of common action, it would be very desirable if WMO could include in its short-term work plan a proposal to develop and issue a technical note about the preparation of ‘agrometeorological bulletins’. Acknowledgements The author expresses his sincere thank to every colleague for his/her effort and help to produce this summary. It was a real enjoy to read the answers and see the everyday work and effort of specialists to help the agricultural activity within our Region. A review of submitted examples was the other pleasure of the rapporteur notwithstanding the fact that the submitted papers were not understandable because of language problem but the contents were absolutely clear. Agrometeorology has an international ‘language’ for everybody. With very small ‘training’ everybody can use the agrometeorological bulletins of other countries. The author would like to express his thanks to WMO for the possibility to participate in the present work. It was a real great pleasure. 107 ANNEX 1 QUESTION 1) Has your national meteorological, hydrological, hydrometeorological service, institute (NMHS) got an independent agrometeorological unit in your country? 2) If not, does somebody deal with 'agrometeorology' in your national service (NMHS)? 3) Are agrometeorological bulletins and advisories issued by the national meteorological service (NMHS)? 4) Are any agricultural research and extension agencies in your country involved either in the preparation of dissemination of bulletins or both in your country? 5) If yes please inform about the frequency of delivery of these bulletins! 6) How is the information presented in the bulletin collected and analysed and in what form is this information presented? (Please do not forget to send me a copy of any kind of bulletin, advisory paper or any 'agrometeorological information' printed in newspapers, etc in your country) 7) What is the target audience of these bulletins and how are they reached? 8) Is there any regular effort to collect the feedback from the users of these bulletins? 9) Have any efforts been made to assess the economic value and benefit of the use of information provided in the agrometeorological bulletins? 10) Is there any effort to issue bulletins of a special nature to address specific extreme events such as droughts, floods, forest fires, etc? 11) To what extent new techniques such as remote sensing techniques (near- to surface or satellite born surface mapping, etc), simulation models (plant-growth, plant-soil-atmosphere, etc. models) and GIS are used in the analysis and preparation of information? 12) What are the shortcomings and limitations in the current methods of preparing agrometeorological bulletins? 13) Please submit your comments and suggestions to improve agrometeorological bulletins! 14) DID THEY SEND ANY COPY? 15) ANSWERING PERSON(S) 108 ANNEX 2 AUSTRIA BELGIUM 1 no no 2 yes only service involved indirectly in agrometeorology is Department of Cliimatology, redaction of METAGRI, by mail, fax or BBS 3 yes no advisory bulletin issued 4 no Soil Service of Belgium: agromet weather forecast Private association: advisory for pest and diseases 5 daily daily, via internet paper and fax on request 6 example Example: www.bdb.be/weer/weerfr.html 7 farmers by fax and web private, industry, governments 8 no no 9 some the results are not published 10 occasionally no such effort 11 for evapotranspiration agromet simulation models satellite data, estimation GIS adaptation of CGMS model http://b-cgmas.cragx.fgov.be 12 many but the most essential is The necessity to find a financial support that the “synoptic people” do from public authorities not consider agromet forecast as very attractive in terms of income and effctiveness 13 better dissemination (web and Potential number of users decreasing. The on-line infor), user contact cost/benefit ration of such information is not proved if they have to pay to get these bulletins. External support is thus necessary if we want to develop the use of such bulletins and make them available for a wider range of people 14 yes, fax yes, bulletin 15 Mr. Hartwig Dobesch Mr. Robert Oger 109 BULGARIA 1 No 2 Yes, The section of Agrometeorology which is a part of the Department of Meteorology at the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (NIMH), Sofia, Bulgaria 3 The monthly hydrometeorological bulletin. The agrometeorological information within the bulletin consists of assessments of soil and crop, The Operational Working Group of Agrometeorology, which is a part of the Section of Agrometeorology, issues agrometeorological prognoses and advisories, disseminated directly to governmental and private organizations and institutions, farmers, etc. or through the media 4 Yes for example, the Ministry of Agriculture issues agricultural bulletin including information on the sowed agricultural land, crop yields, etc. 5 6 Information in the hydrometeorological bulletin of the NIMH is collected by the national operational network of the NIMH. The information is presented using text, tables and figures (including maps). The bulletins are available as hard copies as well as on the Internet , 7 private and governmental organizations, regular users of the bulletin are the Ministry of Environment; the Ministry of Agriculture, insurance companies. 8 9 Generally, efforts have not been made to assess the economic value and benefits of the use of information, provided within the NIMH hydrometeorological bulletin. However, statistic of the income as a result of the NIMH services of requests for meteorological and agrometeorological information (including expert reports, etc.) are available. Simeonov et al. (1999, Proceedings of the ECAM’1999, Norrkoping, Sweden) 110