C.E.Brown World Energy Resources Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg GmbH Charles E. Brown, Ph. D. World Energy Resources International Geohydroscience and Energy Research Institute With 175 Figures and 44 Tabies , Springer CHARLES E. BROWN, Ph.D. Director, IGER INSTITUTE INC. 15094 Wetherburn Drive 20120 Centreville, Virginia USA ISBN 978-3-642-62716-3 CIP data applied for Die Deutsche Bibliothek - CIP-Eioheitsaufoahme Brown, Charles E.: World energy resources / by Charles E. Brown. - Berlin; Heidelberg ; New York; Barcelona ; Hongkong ; London ; Milan ; Paris; Tokyo: Springer, 2002 ISBN 978-3-642-62716-3 ISBN 978-3-642-56342-3 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-56342-3 This work is subject to copyright. Ali rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is con cerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer-Verlag. Violations are liable for prosecution under the German Copyright Law. http://www.springer.de © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2002 Originally published by Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York in 2002 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1 st edition 2002 The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imly, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Typesetting: Fotosatz-Service Kohler GmbH, Wiirzburg Cover Design: E. Kirchner, Heidelberg Printed on acid-free paper SPIN: 10709185 32/3130/as - 543210 World Energy Resources by Charles E. Brown, Ph. D A synopsis of world energy resources and associated issues concerning explo ration, exploitation, advanced technologies, environmental factors, historical trends, and long-term forecasts. Preface World Energy Resources is an explanatory energy survey of the countries and major regions of the world, their geographic and economic settings, and signif icant inter-relationships. This book attempts to combine several interacting energy themes that encompass a historical development, energy issues and forecasts, economic geography, environmental programs, and world energy use. The main thrust of this book - World Energy Resources - is based on princi ples of energy science, applied geology, geophysics, and other environmental sciences as they relate to the exploration, exploitation, and production of resources in this country and throughout the world. This work is an analysis of the United States (USA) and world oil, gas, coal, and alternative energy resources and their associated issues, forecasts, and related policy. This book could not have been attempted without a broad geological exposure and international ge ographic awareness. Much information is scattered among federal and state agencies, schools, and other institutions, and this book has attempted to com bine some of the vast information base. This attempt can only skim the infor mation surface at best, but its regional and topical coverage is broad in scope. Part I introduces conventional energy resources and their historical develop ments, and includes chapters 1 to 7. The basic concepts and supporting facts on energy sources are presented here for the general education of energy analysts, policy makers, and scientists that desire a brief review of advanced technologies and history. Part II includes chapters 8 to 14 and provides discussions of the renewable energy sources and the available alternative energy sources and technologies to oil, gas, coal, and nuclear sources. Part III includes chapters 15 to 20 and provides an analysis of United States energy markets and forecasts through the first quarter of the 21 st century, while . including some world energy data. Widely-used energy forecasting models are presented in this section. Part IV includes chapters 21 to 27 and discusses some advanced technologies, as they relate to energy use and conservation in the major world regions. Part IV also discusses world resources through both country studies and regional en ergy overviews, and supplements the first three parts of this book. Charles E. Brown Centreville, Virginia March 2002 Acknowledgments The world of international energy is both overwhelming and enlightening in its broad reach. It is linked and shaped by politics, economics, geography, geo science, and other disciplines. Successful completion of any textbook or reference book that includes hun dreds of figures, graphs, and other illustrations is only possible with access to and the cooperation of many individuals, companies, organizations, and agen cies. In particular, I wish to thank the u.S. Department of Energy for providing a wealth of valuable studies on all aspects of energy exploration, exploitation, and production through its thousands of publications. I wish to especially thank the U.S. Department of Energy and u.S. Geological Survey for allowing me to participate in U.S. Trade Missions and Bilateral Meetings where I was able to coordinate various issues of international energy programs and formulate coun try profIle summaries. During the completion of these work initiatives, I was able to develop more insight into the importance of energy in this country and the world, and the associated politics surrounding the energy industry. I also thank many individuals at Chevron, USA, with whom I have completed energy exploration studies in the 1970s. I also thank Reginal Spiller, former Deputy Assistant Secretary for Gas and Petroleum Technologies, U.S. Department of Energy, for providing invaluable insight and stimulating conversations, and for providing unique work situations on all aspects of world energy. I also thank the Geology and Chemistry Departments at George Mason University and the Geoscience Department at Virginia State University for providing facilities and a stimulating environment to teach courses in energy conservation and the environment, applied geology, hydrogeology, geophysics, environmental statistics, and other related science courses; all information of which is brought together to form the backbone of this book. I also thank the faculty and staff of the Geoscience Departments at Virginia State University and The Pennsylvania State University where I completed undergraduate and graduate studies, respectively, in the geosciences. I am especially indebted to my editors at Springer-Verlag for support and guidance during production of this publication. I also thank my wife, Sadie B.Brown, Esquire and daughters, Carla D. Brown, Esquire, Karen B. McAfee, Esquire, and son-in-law Larry McAfee, Esquire, for additional editorial review and consultation. I thank all members of my family, especially my wife, Sadie, and daughters, Carla and Karen, for support during this and previous related projects and x Acknowledgments international travels. I also thank my grandsons, Donovan and Darian, for inspiration. As always, I am very thankful to my mother, Gretchen, and father, Warren, and other family members for encouragement. Contents Preface VII Acknowledgments IX Part I Introduction to Primary Energy - Nonrenewable Sources 1 1 Introduction to World Energy 3 1.1 Concepts in Energy and Definitions 3 1.1.1 Significance of Energy Resources 4 1.1.2 Broad Definition of Energy 5 1.2 A Universal View of Energy 6 1.3 Energy Systems ...... . 7 1.3.1 Laws of Energy and Energy Efficiency 7 1.3.2 Equilibrium and Environmental Systems 8 1.3.3 Energy Flow in Environmental Systems 8 104 Future of Energy Industry ..... 9 1.4.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 1.4.2 Energy in 1990 to 2000 - Overview .. 11 1.4.3 World Primary Energy Production Trends Leading To 21 st Century ................. . 11 1.404 Major Energy Producers and Consumers 13 1.4.5 Regional Energy Production and Consumption 13 1.4.6 Petroleum . 15 1.4.7 Natural Gas ..... 15 104.8 Coal 16 1.4.9 Hydroelectric Power 16 1.4.10 Nuclear Electric Power 17 1.4.11 Geothermal, Solar, Wind, and Wood and Waste Electric Power 17 1.4.12. Carbon Dioxide Emission from the Consumption and Flaring of Fossil Fuels .............. . 17 1.5 Fast Track Energy Markets .......... . 19 1.6 Economic and Demographic Variables .... . 20 1.6.1 Energy Use, Efficiency, and Population Growth 20 1.6.2 Global Population Growth ........... . 21 XII Contents 1.6.3 Population Growth and Industry .................. 21 1.6.4 Consumption Processes ....................... 22 1.6.5 Exponential Growth/Consumption of Resources . . . . . . . . .. 23 1.6.6 Commodity Doubling Time ..................... 23 1.6.7 Commodity Expiration Time .................... 24 1.6.8 Globalization-A Global View of Energy Use ............ 24 1.7 Some Mineral Economic Considerations ............ .. 25 1.7.1 Definition of Resources and Reserves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 25 1.7.2 Computation of Mineral and Mineral-Fuel Reserves ....... 26 1. 7.3 Estimation of Potential Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 26 1.7.4 Geological Example of Exploration Evaluation . . . . . . . . . .. 26 1.7.5 Assessment Methodologies For Nonfuel Minerals . . . . . . . .. 27 1.8 Resource, Exploration, Conservation, and Environmental Management Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 27 1.8.1 Role of Geology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 27 1.8.2 International Exploration Activity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 31 1.8.3 U.S. Environmental Concerns and Regulations . . . . . . . . . .. 31 1.8.4 Summary ............................... 33 2 Historical Perspective of Energy .............. . 35 2.1 Historical Perspective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 2.1.1 View of Energy in the Universe ................... 35 2.1.2 Early Energy Development In Europe and North America .... 35 2.2 Historical Developments of World Oil Industry .......... 38 2.3 World Energy Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 43 2.4 Long-Term Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 44 2.5 World Energy Supplies ........................ 45 2.6 World Oil Demand .......................... 47 2.7 Alternative Fuels for Transportation ................ 48 2.8 International Oil Complex ....... . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 48 2.8.1 Essential Role of Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 48 2.8.2 Evolution of International Oil Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 49 2.8.3 International Oil Consumption ................... 51 2.8.4 International Oil Supply ....................... 54 2.8.5 Technological Advancements .................... 56 2.8.6 Government Intervention ...................... 56 2.8.7 Expanded Opportunities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 57 2.9 Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 60 3 World Primary Energy Overview .................. 61 3.1 Perspective on Energy Resources .................. 61 3.1.1 Overview of Energy Production and Consumption ........ 61 3.2 World Petroleum and Natural Gas Resources . . . . . . . . . . .. 65 3.2.1 Historical Developments in Petroleum and Natural Gas Markets 65 3.2.2 Composition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 66 3.2.3 Occurrence .............................. 67