World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 AN FAO PERSPECTIVE Edited by Jelle Bruinsma WORLD AGRICULTURE : TOWARDS 2015/2030 AN FAO PERSPECTIVE Edited by Jelle Bruinsma Earthscan Publications Ltd London First published in the UK and USA in 2003 by Earthscan Publications Ltd Copyright © Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), 2003 ISBN: 92 5 104835 5 (FAO paperback) 1 84407 007 7 (Earthscan paperback) 1 84407 008 5 (Earthscan hardback) All rights reserved. Reproduction and dissemination of material in this information product for educational or other non-commercial purposes are authorized without any prior written permission from the copyright holders provided the source is fully acknowledged. Reproduction of material in this information product for resale or other commer- cial purposes is prohibited without written permission of the copyright holders. Applications for such permission should be addressed to the Chief, Publishing Management Service, Information Division, FAO, Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00100 Rome, Italy or by e-mail to [email protected] The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies, their products or brand names does not imply any endorsement by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. In the presentation of statistical material, countries are, where appropriate, aggregated in the following main economic groupings: “developed countries” (including the developed market economies or “industrial countries” and the transition countries) and “developing countries”. The designations “developed” and “developing” economies are intended for statistical convenience and does not necessarily express a judgement about the stage of development reached by a particular country. For a full list of publications please contact: Earthscan Publications Ltd 120 Pentonville Road London, N1 9JN, UK Tel: +44 (0)20 7278 0433 Fax: +44 (0)20 7278 1142 E-mail: [email protected] Web site: www.earthscan.co.uk 22883 Quicksilver Drive, Sterling, VA 20166-2012, USA A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data applied for Earthscan is an editorially independent subsidiary of Kogan Page Ltd and publishes in association with WWF-UK and the International Institute for Environment and Development Copies of FAO publications can be requested from: Sales and Marketing Group Information Division FAO Viale delle Terme di Caracalla 00100 Rome, Italy E-mail: [email protected] Fax: (+39) 06 57053360 Web site: www.fao.org This book is printed on elemental chlorine-free paper ii Contents Foreword by the Director-General of FAO iii Explanatory notes xi Contributors to the book xii Chapter 1 Introduction and overview 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Overview 3 Chapter 2 Prospects for food and nutrition 2.1 The broad picture: historical developments and present situation 29 2.2 The outlook for food and nutrition to 2015 and 2030 34 2.3 Structural changes in the commodity composition of food consumption 50 2.4 Concluding remarks 54 Chapter 3 Prospects for aggregate agriculture and major commodity groups 3.1 Aggregate agriculture: historical trends and prospects 57 3.2 Cereals 64 3.3 Livestock commodities 85 3.4 Oilcrops, vegetable oils and products 98 3.5 Roots, tubers and plantains 107 3.6 Main export commodities of the developing countries 111 Chapter 4 Crop production and natural resource use 4.1 Introduction 124 4.2 Sources of growth in crop production 124 4.3 Agricultural land 127 4.4 Irrigation and water use 137 4.5 Land-yield combinations for major crops 142 4.6 Input use 148 Chapter 5 Livestock production 5.1 Introduction 158 5.2 Consumption of livestock products 159 5.3 Production 160 5.4 Major perspective issues and possible policy responses 166 5.5 Concluding remarks 175 Chapter 6 Forestry 6.1 Introduction 177 6.2 The present state of forests 178 6.3 Forces shaping forestry and areas of change 179 6.4 Probable changes up to 2015 and 2030 184 6.5 Major perspective issues in world forestry 189 6.6 Where is forestry heading? 192 v Chapter 7 Fisheries 7.1 Introduction 195 7.2 World fisheries at the end of the 1990s 195 7.3 Plausible developments in world fisheries 202 7.4 Concluding remarks 210 Chapter 8 Agriculture in poverty alleviation and economic development 8.1 Introduction 212 8.2 Internationally agreed poverty reduction targets 212 8.3 The main international strategies for poverty reduction: a summary assessment 217 8.4 Micro and macro evidence on the impact of undernourishment 221 8.5 Agricultural and rural non-farm growth 226 Chapter 9 Agricultural trade, trade policies and the global food system 9.1 Introduction 232 9.2 Long-term trends in the pattern of global agricultural trade 233 9.3 The trade policy environment for agriculture 241 9.4 Towards freer trade in agriculture: what is important from a 30-year perspective? 249 9.5 Beyond the traditional trade agenda: emerging long-term trade policy issues 255 9.6 Summary and conclusions 262 Chapter 10 Globalization in food and agriculture 10.1 Globalization as an ongoing process 265 10.2 The main features of globalization and the correlates of success 269 10.3 Some options to integrate developing countries better 288 10.4 Concluding remarks 294 Chapter 11 Selected issues in agricultural technology 11.1 The scope for yield increases 297 11.2 Technologies in support of sustainable agriculture 303 11.3 Organic agriculture 308 11.4 Agricultural biotechnology 314 11.5 Directions for agricultural research 327 Chapter 12 Agriculture and the environment: changing pressures, solutions and trade-offs 12.1 Introduction 331 12.2 Major trends and forces 332 12.3 Changing pressures on the environment 333 12.4 Current and emerging solutions 351 12.5 Physical and economic trade-offs 353 12.6 Concluding remarks 355 Chapter 13 Climate change and agriculture: physical and human dimensions 13.1 Introduction 357 13.2 Agriculture as a moderator of climate change 358 13.3 Climate change impacts on agriculture 361 13.4 Implications of climate change for food security 364 13.5 Technological and policy options 369 13.6 Conclusions 371 Appendixes 1. Countries and commodities 375 2. Summary methodology of the quantitative analysis and projections 378 3. Statistical tables 383 References 409 Acronyms 430 vi Boxes Box 2.1 Measuring the incidence of undernourishment: the key role of the estimates of food available for direct human consumption 34 Box 2.2 Data problems and the estimation of undernourishment: the case of Nigeria 37 Box 2.3 Scenarios with alternative population projections 40 Box 2.4 Inequality of access to food and incidence of undernourishment: assumptions about the future 43 Box 2.5 The WFS target of halving undernourishment by no later than 2015. What do the projections imply? 46 Box 4.1 Summary methodology of estimating land potential for rainfed agriculture 129 Box 4.2 Estimating the land potential for rainfed agriculture: some observations 131 Box 4.3 Summary methodology of estimating water balances 141 Box 4.4 Cereal yields and production: actual and as projected in the 1995 study 145 Box 4.5 Methodology to estimate farm power category 152 Box 4.6 Gender roles and the feminization of agriculture 155 Box 4.7 Household vulnerability to the loss of human and draught animal power 157 Box 7.1 Biodiversity and fisheries 200 Box 7.2 The use of genetically modified organisms in aquaculture 203 Box 7.3 An aquaculture scenario for Africa 206 Box 7.4 Krill as a source of human food and animal feed 207 Box 7.5 International agreements 209 Box 7.6 Resource sharing 210 Box 8.1 The problems with international poverty data 214 Box 9.1 The SPS and TBT Agreements 258 Box 9.2 Overprotection of intellectual property can present a threat to trade 262 Box 10.1 TNCs can be the source of major productivity gains 276 Box 10.2 The global coffee chain: changing market structures and power 277 Box 10.3 Formalizing the linkages in agriculture: the importance of contract farming 279 Box 10.4 Multimodal transport offers new opportunities for developing countries 289 Box 10.5 The benefits and limits of economic agglomeration 290 Box 10.6 Why and when is two-way trade in agriculture important for developing countries? 291 Box 10.7 How has two-way trade been quantified? 292 Box 11.1 No-till development support strategy: the Brazil experience 307 Box 11.2 What is an organic production system designed to do? 309 Box 11.3 Golden rice: a polarized debate 321 Box 11.4 GURTs: technical aspects and possible impacts 323 Box 11.5 The International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture 325 Box 13.1 Food-insecure regions and countries at risk 371 vii Tables Table 2.1 Per capita food consumption (kcal/person/day) 30 Table 2.2 Population living in countries with given per capita food consumption 31 Table 2.3 Incidence of undernourishment, developing countries 33 Table 2.4 Population and GDP data and projections 36 Table 2.5 Estimates and projections of poverty (US$1/day, World Bank, baseline scenario) 41 Table 2.6 Developing countries with increases in food consumption (kcal/person/day) of 22 percent or more over 17 years or less 48 Table 2.7 Changes in the commodity composition of food consumption, major country groups 53 Table 2.8 Changes in the commodity composition of food consumption, developing regions 55 Table 3.1 Growth rates of aggregate demand and production (percentage p.a.) 59 Table 3.2 Growth rates of demand and production in different country groups 61 Table 3.3 Cereal balances, world and major country groups 65 Table 3.4 Cereal balances by developing regions, all cereals (wheat, rice [milled], coarse grains) 68 Table 3.5 Net trade balances of wheat, coarse grains and rice 78 Table 3.6 South Asia, land-yield combinations of wheat production 79 Table 3.7 Near East/North Africa: areas and yields of wheat, maize and barley 80 Table 3.8 World cereal trade: matching net balances of importers and exporters 82 Table 3.9 Milk and dairy products, production and use: past and projected 86 Table 3.10 Food consumption of meat, kg per capita, carcass weight 87 Table 3.11 Meat, aggregate production and demand: past and projected 89 Table 3.12 World exports of livestock products and percentage of world consumption 90 Table 3.13 Net trade positions of the major importers and exporters of livestock products (thousand tonnes) 91 Table 3.14 Net trade in meat and milk/dairy (thousand tonnes) 96 Table 3.15 Oilcrops, vegetable oils and products, production and demand 99 Table 3.16 Sources of increases in world production and consumption of oilcrops (in oil equivalent) 101 Table 3.17 Vegetable oils, oilseeds and products, food use: past and projected 102 Table 3.18 Major oilcrops, world production 103 Table 3.19 Harvested area increases: main oilseeds versus other main crops 104 Table 3.20 Net trade balances for oilseeds, oils and products 106 Table 3.21 Coffee and products, production, consumption and trade: past and projected 115 Table 3.22 Cocoa and products, production, consumption and trade: past and projected 117 Table 3.23 Sugar, production, consumption and trade: past and projected 119 Table 3.24 Bananas, production, consumption and trade: past and projected 121 Table 3.25 Natural rubber, production, consumption and trade: past and projected 123 Table 4.1 Annual crop production growth 125 Table 4.2 Sources of growth in crop production (percentage) 126 Table 4.3 Sources of growth for major cereals in developing countries (percentage) 126 Table 4.4 Shares of irrigated production in total crop production of developing countries 127 Table 4.5 Land with rainfed crop production potential for selected crop and input levels 128 Table 4.6 Land with rainfed crop production potential (million ha) 130 Table 4.7 Total arable land: past and projected 133 Table 4.8 Arable land in use, cropping intensities and harvested land 135 Table 4.9 Irrigated (arable) land: past and projected 137 Table 4.10 Annual renewable water resources and irrigation water requirements 140 Table 4.11 Area and yields for the ten major crops in developing countries 143 Table 4.12 Cereal yields in developing countries, rainfed and irrigated 144 viii Table 4.13 Average wheat and rice yields for selected country groups 146 Table 4.14 Fertilizer consumption by major crops 148 Table 4.15 Fertilizer consumption: past and projected 149 Table 4.16 Proportion of area cultivated by different power sources, 1997/99 and 2030 153 Table 5.1 Annual growth rates of total livestock production 161 Table 5.2 Livestock production by commodity: past and projected 162 Table 5.3 Meat production: number of animals and carcass weight 165 Table 6.1 Global forestry at a glance, 2000 178 Table 6.2 Trade in forest products as a proportion of production, 2000 182 Table 6.3 Average annual production of selected forest products 185 Table 6.4 Classification of non-wood forest products by end uses 187 Table 6.5 Apparent consumption of wood products (per thousand persons) 189 Table 8.1 Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) 213 Table 8.2 World Bank estimates and projections of poverty 215 Table 8.3 Summary of studies on the productivity impact of poor nutrition 223 Table 8.4 Non-farm shares in total rural income and employment 228 Table 8.5 Income sources in rural India by expenditure quintile, 1994 229 Table 8.6 Sources of income in the Mexican ejidosector by farm size, 1997 230 Table 9.1 Trade flows between developing and developed countries 238 Table 9.2 Domestic support expenditures 1996, US$ million 244 Table 9.3 Export subsidy use (million US$) 245 Table 9.4 Welfare gains from agricultural trade liberalization (per year, in 1995 US$) 250 Table 9.5 Impacts of partial and comprehensive policy reform on world commodity prices 253 Table 10.1 Regional distribution of FDI inflows and outflows (billion US$) 273 Table 10.2 Number of subsidiaries of the 100 largest TNCs by region (1996) 275 Table 10.3 Two-way trade in food and agriculture, by region 293 Table 11.1 Agro-ecological similarity for rainfed wheat production, selected countries 300 Table 11.2 Wheat and rice yields in India, by state 302 Table 11.3 A selection of commercially available and important GMOs 317 Table 11.4 Area under GM crops, globally, from 1996 to 2001 318 Table 11.5 Area under GM crops by country, 1999 and 2001 319 Table 12.1 Agriculture’s contribution to global greenhouse gas and other emissions 334 Table 12.2 Global N O emissions 336 2 Table 12.3 Ammonia emissions implied by the livestock projections 338 Table 12.4 Global Assessment of Human-induced Soil Degradation (GLASOD) 341 Table 12.5 Shares of agricultural land in South Asia affected by different forms of degradation 342 Table 12.6 Regional hot spots of land degradation 343 Table 13.1 Estimated gross carbon sequestration per year by cropland soils 360 Table 13.2 Potential changes in cereal yields (percentage range, by region) 367 ix Figures and maps Figure 2.1 Per capita food consumption, developing countries with over 100 million population in 1997/99 30 Figure 2.2 Developing countries with under 2200 kcal in 1997/99. Highest and lowest five-year average kcal recorded during 1961-1999 31 Figure 2.3 Growth rates of per capita GDP, 1990s and 2000-15 39 Figure 2.4 Paths of change in undernourishment: raising average consumption versus reducing inequality 44 Figure 3.1 World market prices, 1960-2001 (constant 1990 US$) 58 Figure 3.2 Developing countries, net agricultural trade balances, 1984-2000 62 Figure 3.3 Fifteen-year growth rates of aggregate cereal consumption 64 Figure 3.4 Per capita consumption (all uses) of individual cereals 66 Figure 3.5 Increases in wheat consumption (all uses) and in net imports, 1974/76 to 1997/99, developing countries with over 500 thousand tonnes increase in consumption 67 Figure 3.6 Food and non-food use of coarse grains, developing regions and selected countries, average 1997/99 69 Figure 3.7 Net cereal imports, developing countries: comparisons of old projections with actual outcomes 70 Figure 3.8 China’s net trade of cereals 71 Figure 3.9 Aggregate consumption of cereals, by category of use 75 Figure 3.10 Wheat production and net imports 76 Figure 3.11 Sub-Saharan Africa, cereal food per capita 77 Figure 3.12 Cereal production, all developing countries: comparison of actual outcomes average 1997/99 with projections to 2010 made in 1993 from base year 1988/90 81 Figure 3.13 Countries with over 20 percent of calories from roots, tubers and plantains in 1997/99 108 Figure 3.14 Roots, tubers and plantains, food consumption (kg/person/year), 1970-99 110 Figure 3.15 Cassava in Thailand and the EU 111 Figure 3.16 Sugar, net trade positions, 1970-99 120 Figure 6.1 Percentage of deforestation by region, 1990-2000 191 Figure 7.1 Ratio between the 1998 and maximum historical production, by region 196 Figure 7.2 The state of world fish stocks in 1999 197 Figure 7.3 Condition of stocks by FAO statistical region 198 Figure 9.1 The agricultural trade balance and share of agricultural exports 234 Figure 9.2 Least developed countries have become major net importers of agricultural products 235 Figure 9.3 Dependence on agricultural export earnings by commodity, 1997/99 237 Figure 9.4 Coffee exports, world and Viet Nam 240 Figure 9.5 Policy wedges, prices and reforms 252 Figure 10.1 Market concentration in the coffee chain 277 Figure 10.2 Past and projected trends in urbanization of developing countries 283 Figure 10.3 GDP density map of the world 285 Figure 10.4 Food consumption convergence in OECD countries 287 Figure 10.5 Food consumption convergence in Africa and Asia 288 Figure 10.6 Two-way trade in food and agriculture, the effects of economic integration 294 Figure 11.1 Wheat yields (average 1996/2000) 298 Figure 11.2 Maize yields (average 1996/2000) 299 Figure 11.3 Wheat: actual and agro-ecologically attainable yields (rainfed, high input) 301 Figure 11.4 Farm area under certified organic management 311 Figure 11.5 GMO crops by country and crop 320 x Explanatory notes SYMBOLS AND UNITS COUNTRIES AND COUNTRY GROUPS ha hectare The list of countries and the standard country kg kilogram groups used in this report are shown in US$ US dollar Appendix 1. In the text, the term “transition coun- tonne metric ton (1000 kg) tries” is used to denote the countries in Eastern billion thousand million Europe (including the former Yugoslavia SFR) p.a. per annum and in the former Soviet Union. The term “indus- kcal kilocalories trial countries” is used for the countries referred to p.c. per capita formerly as “developed market economies”. n.a. not available mm millimetre km3 cubic kilometre LAND DEFINITIONS mln million Arable area is the physical land area used for m3 cubic metre growing crops (both annual and perennial). In mt metric ton any given year, part of the arable area may not be cropped (fallow) or may be cropped more than once (double cropping). The area actually cropped TIME PERIODS and harvested in any given year is the harvested 1998 calendar year area. The harvested area expressed as a percentage 1997/99 average for the three years of the arable area is the cropping intensity. Land centred on 1998 with (rainfed) crop production potential consists 1970-90 period from 1970 to 1990 of all land area that is at present arable or is 1997/99-2030 period from the three-year potentially arable, i.e. is suitable for growing average 1997/99 to 2030 crops when developed (see Chapter 4). GROWTH RATES DATA SOURCES Annual percentage growth rates for historical All data are derived from FAO sources unless periods are computed from all the annual data of specified otherwise. the period using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method to estimate an exponential curve with time as the explanatory variable. The estimated coefficient of time is the annual growth rate. Annual growth rates for projection periods are compound growth rates calculated from values for the begin- and end-point of the period. xi