(cid:3)(cid:4)(cid:2)(cid:5)(cid:6)(cid:7)(cid:8)(cid:2)(cid:9)(cid:2)(cid:1)(cid:1)(cid:5)(cid:10)(cid:11)(cid:12)(cid:11)(cid:5)(cid:13)(cid:11)(cid:14)(cid:15)(cid:16)(cid:17)(cid:17)(cid:18)(cid:19)(cid:5)(cid:20)(cid:17)(cid:21)(cid:8)(cid:12)(cid:4)(cid:5)(cid:22)(cid:15)(cid:7)(cid:12)(cid:7)(cid:17)(cid:14)(cid:23)(cid:13)B(cid:16)(cid:11)(cid:8)(cid:31)(cid:13)C:(cid:13)3(cid:8)8(cid:5)(cid:31)(cid:8) (cid:28)(cid:5)(cid:21)&!(cid:22)(cid:10)%(cid:12)(cid:13)D(cid:13)(cid:27)000(cid:13)B(cid:5)%(cid:4)(cid:13)2(cid:22)(cid:7)(cid:8)&(cid:13)>(cid:13)’(cid:5)(cid:4)(cid:31)(cid:23)(cid:13)9(cid:4)(cid:2): 9’1=(cid:31)E(cid:13))(cid:17)"((cid:27)(cid:17)(cid:26)(cid:27)(cid:25)*(cid:27)(cid:17)(cid:24)(cid:13)(cid:14)6(cid:16)!(cid:9)(cid:18)(cid:16)(cid:2)(cid:3)(cid:20)F(cid:13))(cid:17)"((cid:27)(cid:17)(cid:24)(cid:24)"*-(cid:17)-(cid:13)(cid:14).(cid:7)(cid:8)(cid:2)(cid:12)!(cid:5)(cid:4)(cid:22)(cid:2)(cid:20) THE WIRELESS DATA HANDBOOK THE WIRELESS DATA HANDBOOK FOURTH EDITION James F. DeRose JFD Associates A WILEY-INTERSCIENCE PUBLICATION JOHN WILEY & SONS, INC. New York / Chichester / Weinheim / Brisbane I Singapore / Toronto This book is printed on acid-free paper. @ Copyright 0 1999 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved. Published simultaneously in Canada, No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval systemo r transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning or otherwise, except as permitted under Sections 107 or 108 of the 1976 United, States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750-8400, fax (978) 750-4744. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 605 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10158-0012, (212) 850-6011, fax (212) 850-6008, E-Mail: [email protected]. For ordering and customer service, call l-800~CALL-WILEY. ISBN O-471-22458-8 Libraty of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data: DeRose, JamesF The wireless data handbook I James F. DeRose. - 4th ed. p+ corn. “A Wiley-Interscience publication.” ISBN O-47 l-3 165 l-2 (alk. paper) 1. Wireless communication systems. 1. Title. TK5103.2D47 1999 62 1.3645’6-dc2 1 99-30369 Printed in the United States of America, 10987654321 (cid:3)(cid:4)(cid:2)(cid:5)(cid:6)(cid:7)(cid:8)(cid:2)(cid:9)(cid:2)(cid:1)(cid:1)(cid:5)(cid:10)(cid:11)(cid:12)(cid:11)(cid:5)(cid:13)(cid:11)(cid:14)(cid:15)(cid:16)(cid:17)(cid:17)(cid:18)(cid:19)(cid:5)(cid:20)(cid:17)(cid:21)(cid:8)(cid:12)(cid:4)(cid:5)(cid:22)(cid:15)(cid:7)(cid:12)(cid:7)(cid:17)(cid:14)(cid:23)(cid:13)B(cid:16)(cid:11)(cid:8)(cid:31)(cid:13)C:(cid:13)3(cid:8)8(cid:5)(cid:31)(cid:8) (cid:28)(cid:5)(cid:21)&!(cid:22)(cid:10)%(cid:12)(cid:13)D(cid:13)(cid:27)000(cid:13)B(cid:5)%(cid:4)(cid:13)2(cid:22)(cid:7)(cid:8)&(cid:13)>(cid:13)’(cid:5)(cid:4)(cid:31)(cid:23)(cid:13)9(cid:4)(cid:2): 9’1=(cid:31)E(cid:13))(cid:17)"((cid:27)(cid:17)(cid:26)(cid:27)(cid:25)*(cid:27)(cid:17)(cid:24)(cid:13)(cid:14)6(cid:16)!(cid:9)(cid:18)(cid:16)(cid:2)(cid:3)(cid:20)F(cid:13))(cid:17)"((cid:27)(cid:17)(cid:24)(cid:24)"*-(cid:17)-(cid:13)(cid:14).(cid:7)(cid:8)(cid:2)(cid:12)!(cid:5)(cid:4)(cid:22)(cid:2)(cid:20) CONTENTS PREFACE I GETTING STARTED 1 A Short History of Data Radio 3 1.1 In the Beginning / 3 1.2 Private Networks Lead the Way / 4 1.3 Rise of Public Packet Switched Networks I 5 1.4 Circuit Switched Skims the Early Cream / 6 1.5 Packet Switched Gates Creak Open / 7 1.6 New Wireless Data Alternatives / 8 1.7 Summary / 8 References I 9 2 Data Network Types 11 2.1 A Rough Sort of Two-Way Systems / 11 2.2 Private Systems / 11 2.2.1 Overview / 11 2.2.2 Estimating Private Users / 15 2.3 Public Systems / 16 2.3.1 Satellite Systems / 16 2.3.1.1 One-Way Paging / 17 2.3.2 Terrestrial Systems / 17 2.3.2.1 Packet Confusion / 18 2.4 Summary I 18 References / 19 V vi CONTENTS 3 Key Public Network Characteristics 20 3.1 Coverage / 20 3.2 Penetration I 21 3.3 MessageLength / 21 3.4 MessageR ates I 22 3.5 Device Speed I 23 3.6 Connectivity I 23 3.7 Summary 1 24 4 Public Terrestrial Packet Switched Networks 25 4.1 Messaging/DispatchO rientation / 25 4.2 Alphanuneric Paging Orientation I 26 4.3 RepresentativeN ationwide Networks I 27 4.3.1 Advanced Radio Data Information System / 27 4.3.2 BellSouth Wireless Data / 30 4.3.3 SkyTe12 I 31 4.4 Representative Regional Networks / 32 4.4.1 Cellular Digital Packet Data / 32 4.4.1.1 Ameritech / 34 4.4.1.2 AT&T Wireless / 34 4.4.1.3 Bell Atlantic Mobile / 35 4.4.1.4 GTE MobileCorn / 36 4.4.1.5 CDPD Summary / 36 4.4.2 Cellular Control Channel I 38 4.4.2.1 Cellemetry / 38 4.4.2.2 Aeris Communications / 40 4.5 RepresentativeM etropolitan Networks / 42 4.5.1 Introduction I 42 4.5.2 Metricom Ricochet I 42 4.5.3 Teletrac I 44 4.6 Notable Closings / 46 4.6.1 AirTouch CDPD / 46 4.6.2 Cellular Data Incorporated / 46 4.6.3 Cincinnati Microwave I 47 4.6.4 CoveragePLUS / 47 4.6.5 Electrocom Automation / 47 CONTENTS vii 4.6.6 Geotek I 48 4.6.7 Global Vehicle Tracking System / 49 4.6.8 Kustom Electronics / 49 4.6.9 Magnavox (Nav-Corn) Automatic Vehicle Location / 50 4.6.10 Mobile Data International / 50 4.6.11 Motorola Tracknet/Diversified Computer Systems( DCP) / 50 4.6.12 Navtech / 50 4.6.13 Pacific Communication Sciences / 5 1 4.6.14 Pinpoint Communications I 5 1 4.6.15 RAMTrack I 52 4.6.16 RadioMail I 52 4.6.17 Skywire I 52 References I 52 5 Public Terrestrial Circuit Switched Networks 57 5.1 RepresentativeN ationwide Networks / 57 5.1.1 HighwayMaster: A Stubborn Fighter / 57 5.1.2 Nextel: Good Field, No Hit / 60 5.1.3 PeopleNet: A New Kid on the Block / 61 5.2 RepresentativeR egional Networks / 62 5.2.1 Data over Analog Cellular Voice Channels / 62 5.2.1.1 Modern Pools / 63 5.2.2 Broadband PCS: GSM I 65 5.2.2.1 Introduction / 65 5.2.2.2 RepresentativeG SM Carriers / 65 5.2.2.3 The GSMAlliance / 67 5.3 Notable Closings I 68 5.3.1 AirTouch Cellular and CTA / 68 5.3.2 Rockwell/GTE Mobile I 68 References I 68 6 Public Satellite Networks 70 6.1 Introduction / 70 6.2 Geostationary Satellite Systems / 7 1 6.2.1 GEOS Overview / 71 6.2.2 OmniTRACS / 71 . . . VIII CONTENTS 6.2.3 AMSC Skycell I 72 6.2.4 GEOS Summary / 74 6.3 Low Earth-Orbiting Satellites / 74 6.3.1 LEOS Overview / 74 6.3.2 Orbcomm I 74 6.3.3 GlobalStar / 75 6.3.4 LEOS Summary / 76 6.4 Notable Closings / 77 6.4.1 Geostar / 77 6.4.2 MARCOR Humminbird / 77 6.4.3 Meteorburst Approaches I 77 6.4.3.1 Introduction / 77 6.4.3.2 Broadcomm / 78 6.4.3.3 Pegasus Messaging / 78 6.4.3.4 Transtrack / 78 References I 78 7 Hybrid Networks 80 7.1 Terrestrial Packet/Satellite / 80 7.1.1 AMSUARDIS Multimode System / 80 7.1.2 BSWD/Norcom / 81 7.2 Terrestrial Packet/Circuit Switched Cellular / 82 7.2.1 CS-CDPD / 82 7.2.2 BSWD Strategic Network / 82 References I 83 II BUSINESS 101: PRICE AND QUANTITY FIXATIONS 8 Fitting Applications to Public Offerings 87 8.1 Network Price Positioning / 87 8.2 Representative Public Packet Switched Networks / 87 8.2.1 ARDIS Examples / 88 8.2.1.1 Short-Message Service / 88 8.2.1.2 Basic Message Unit Pricing / 89 8.2. I.3 DataPak Pricing / 90 8.2.1.4 Two- Way Messaging Services / 90 CONTENTS ix 8.2.1.5 “All-You-Can-Eat” Pricing / 91 8.2.2 BSWD Examples / 92 8.2.2.1 WirelessL otus Notes / 92 8.2.2.2 WyndMail Pricing / 92 8.2.2.3 Two-Way Paging / 93 8.2.3 CDPD Examples / 93 8.2.3.1 Low-Volume Usage / 93 8.2.3.2 High-Volume Usage / 95 8.2.3.3 “All You Can Eat” Plans / 95 8.3 Comparative Pricing: Nationwide Carriers I 97 8.3.1 Mobile Office I 97 8.3.2 Electronic Mail / 97 8.3.3 Nationwide Two-Way Paging I 99 8.4 Establishing a RepresentativeP acket Switched Price Curve / 101 8.4.1 ARDIS / 101 8.4.1.1 Internal TrafJic: RadioMail / 101 8.4.1.2 External From/To/Date Trafsic: RadioMail / 102 8.4.1.3 ARDIS Test Results / 103 8.4.2 BAM CDPD I 104 8.4.2.1 Test Conditions / 104 8.4.2.2 BAM Test Results / 104 8.4.3 Creating a Representative Packet Curve I 105 8.5 Establishing a RepresentativeC ircuit Switched Cellular Curve / 106 8.5.1 Data Using Voice Tariffs / 106 8.5.1.1 Selecting a Representative Cellular Tariff / 106 8.5.1.2 Establishing the Connect Time / 106 8.5.1.3 Estimating the CustomerD ata/Message Rate / 107 8.5.1.4 Application Variables / 108 8.6 Summary / 110 References / 111 9 Subscriber Growth: History and Barriers 112 9.1 Approach I 112 9.2 Public Packet Switched Networks / 113 9.2.1 Cross-Network Applications: E-mail / 113 9.2.1.1 RadioMail / 113 9.2.1.2 WyndMail / 114 X CONTENTS 9.2.1.3 Zup-it / 114 9.2.2 ARDIS I 114 9.2.3 BSWD / 117 9.2.4 CDPD / 118 9.2.5 Geotek I 120 9.2.6 Metricom Ricochet / 121 9.2.7 SkyTe12 / 122 9.2.8 Teletrac / 124 9.2.9 Analog SMRS I 124 9.2.10 Public Packet Switched Summary / 125 9.3 Public Circuit Switched Subscribers / 127 9.3.1 Data over Cellular / 127 9.3.1.1 Practical Counting Problems / 128 9.3.1.2 Search for the Right Ballpark / 129 9.3.1.3 Sanity Checks / 129 9.3.1.4 Realistic Expectations / 134 9.3.2 BroadbandPCS: GSM I 134 9.3.2.1 Voice Subscriber Growth / 134 9.3.2.2 Data Estimates / 135 9.3.3 ESMR: Nextel Digital Subscribers I 135 9.4 Public Satellite Networks I 136 9.4.1 AMSC / 136 9.4.2 OmniTRACS / 137 9.5 summary I 139 References / 140 10 Market Opportunity 144 10.1 Second Era of Low Hanging Fruit / 144 10.2 Some Unpleasant History / 148 10.2.1 Job-Based Market Opportunity Approach / 148 10.2.2 1996 Projections: 1987 Work / 149 10.2.3 Analyzing the Data / 153 10.3 A New(er) Look at Jobs / 153 10.4 summary / 159 References / 160 CONTENTS Xi 11 Airtime Price Projections 161 11.1 Great Expectations / 161 11.2 Subscriber Capacity Potential / 161 11.3 List Price History: CDPD / 162 11.4 Voice/Data Channel Resource Competition: CDPD / 163 11.4.1 Choosing a Representative Carrier / 163 11.4.2 Establishing a Representative Voice Profile / 164 11.4.3 Estimating Voice Capacity per Cell / 164 11.4.4 Estimating Voice Revenue per Sector / 165 11.45 Calculating the Required Data Revenue / 166 11.5 Estimating Future Data Price Levels / 167 References / 168 III BUSINESS 102: OTHER THINGS ARE IMPORTANT TOO 12 Coverage Versus Capacity 171 12.1 Introduction / 171 12.2 Key Coverage Philosophies / 172 12.2.1 ARDIS / 172 12.2.2 BSWD / 173 12.2.3 ARDIS Versus BSWD: Representative 90% Coverage Contours / 174 12.2.4 Improving Building Penetration with More Base Stations / 175 12.2.5 CDPD / 176 12.2.6 Other Coverage Considerations / 177 12.2.6.1 Transmit Power Levels / 177 12.2.6.2 External Antennas / I79 12.2.6.3 Repeaters / 179 12.3 Estimating Coverage Without Field Tests I 179 12.3.1 License Examinations / 179 12.3.2 CoverageMaps / 182 12.3.2.1 Obfuscation, Not Illumination / 182 12.3.2.2 Useful But with Careless Errors / 183 12.3.2.3 Misleading / 185