SPECIAL ISSUE OUR 2062 WORLD ALMANAC ® Science, Technology, and The Future THE END OF YOUTH An aging world is challenging medical science—and turning society upside down. IMMORTALITY WITHIN A DECADE? p. 60 ONE SECOND POPULATION AFTER THE BOOM GOES BUST BIG BANG p. 30 p. 72 INTERVIEW HOW SEX RATIO WITH A HOBBIT CHANGES HUNTER p. 18 EVERYTHING p. 56 OCTOBER 2012 10 S. PLUS U. 9 The Math of Urban Collapse p. 52 5.9 $ Waging War on Dementia p. 48 0 74470 01372 3 A Brain Bank for Retirees p. 51 DISCOVERMAGAZINE.COM DCS-CV1012_UPC [Pr].indd 1 8/3/12 8:03 AM SPECIAL ISSUE: tHE FUTURE OF POPULATION c o n t e n t s 1 0 / 2 0 1 2 100,000 Years the Aging Brain 48 recipe for SPECIAL immortality 60 of Population 30 A psychologist takes a voyage inside SECTION the brain to explore the shocking things Science nearly has the tools to end aging. Throughout human history, population growth has spurred cultural evolution. DISCOVER that happen as we grow older. A leading geneticist and a veteran A look at five case studies—and a preview Almanac By Robert Epstein journalist show the ways it could happen. of what happens at “peak population.” 2062 q&a: the physics By George Church and Ed Regis By Michael Balter of cities 52 A Love Supreme 64 Geoffrey West abandoned particle physics What will gray tsunami 32 to explore the hidden mathematical laws NEW FICTION: In tomorrow’s America, the world be like that govern animals, trees, and cities. elites cheat death while middle class The world faces a wave of aging, and in 50 years? with it wrenching social and economic We explore the trends By Veronique Greenwood people confront a harsher reality. changes. An Arizona retirement of that vibrant By Kathleen Ann Goonan sex ratio 56 community hints at things to come. and worrisome time. By Linda Marsa Decoded: How the constantly shifting ABOVE: Day to night at the New York PLUS: donors against dementia 51 37 ratio of marriage-age men to women Public Library, by Stephen Wilkes. The world’s best-preserved brains. shapes (and reshapes) the world. ON thE COVEr: By Jeff Wheelwright By Robert Epstein Illustration by tim O’Brien DSC-TC1012 [Pr] [Pr].indd 1 8/3/12 2:11 PM C O L U M N S A N D D E P A R T M E N T S O C T O b E R 2 0 1 2 Data 6 Notes from Earth 70 Mail 4 A roving seismic survey of North The medical marvel America is revealing our continent’s Editor’s Note 5 of fecal transplants, innards—and providing hints of the East Coast’s shaky future. Hot Science 20 a look inside the By Emily Elert The design genius of Bel Geddes, and top-secret lab that the return of J.J. Abrams to TV. protects America’s Out There 72 Destination: A materials scientist Cosmologists can retrace the livestock, recreating tours the Statue of Liberty. history of the universe back to mere Calendar: Our new monthly overview a dying star in New seconds after the Big Bang. Now of the top science events. Mexico, a journey into a they are pushing even closer to the beginning of time. hobbit cave, why By Sean Carroll pg 23 the United States does not need more scientists, a giant leaf pg 80 bug, and more. pg 8 Vital Signs 26 A woman returns from Africa with bizarre lesions. Is the culprit a tropical disease, or something closer to home? By Claire Panosian Dunavan Impatient Futurist 28 Drones aren’t just for war anymore. o; ot Smaller versions could soon be h akBecyec Dpeasinvsgiidb a leHn .t eoFy reael elo,d ndm ethalivnee nrienigg htabcoorhso oord . 2KBy0n C oTowrheyi AnS.b gPooswu Yetlol Cua Drisd n8’0t courtesy Liberty science center; MicheL Gunther/biospeverett coLLection DISCOVER SEE IT MAGAZINE RIGHT NOW AT . COM DISCOVERMAGAZINE.COM “ “If we’re running out of oil, that also means that we’re Graphene Can Repair Itself discovermagazine.com/web/graphene running out of oil-based plastic. Landfills will turn into gold mines. The easiest way to get the material will Plants Use Fungi to Digest Insects by Proxy discovermagazine.com/web/fungi eventually be to dig up trash and reuse it.” The Galaxy That Shouldn’t Be There Debbie Chachra, materials scientist, Franklin W. Olin College of Engineering discovermagazine.com/web/galaxy The Crux discovermagazine.com/web/plastic 2 DISCOVER DSC-TC1012 [Pr] [Pr].indd 2 8/3/12 7:43 AM MAIL Invisible Intrigue Chromatic Wonders lives. We basically inhabit oth- I was amazed by your story Many people are familiar with er people’s bodies and suffer about microbes in the home. color blindness, but DISCOVER with them for a short time. I Can you imagine what there staff writer Veronique Green- wonder if these experiments might be in a restaurant? wood introduced readers to a could lead to treatments for Fred Kuch woman who can see millions people who have little or no Las Vegas, NV July/August more colors than the rest of us empathy, like sociopaths. (“Super Human Vision,” page Lori Shields You can’t just leave us hanging: 2012 29). Neuroscientist Gabriele Salt Lake City, UT How does fecal matter get on Jordan believes there are pillowcases? Norma Frank many more of these so-called Canine Intelligence Bryn Mawr, PA tetrachromats. Behaviorist Stanley Coren’s I have a very strong suspicion analysis of dog psychology Dunn responds: We have that I am a tetrachromat. As (“Inner Lives of Dogs,” page heard that a relatively high an artist and designer, I’ve 66) inspired many letters ques- frequency of nakedness goes on always been frustrated by the tioning the neural capabilities in bedrooms, so pillows likely insufficient number of colors of man’s best friend. bear witness to a great number available in fabric and paint Coren rightly points out that of opportunities for the spread stores. Diane Powell, M.D. dogs do not feel “higher” of microbes. We have never Medford, OR emotions such as shame and tried to determine whether the guilt, despite many owners pillows of those who are never Send email to Greenwood responds: We who would say otherwise. We naked under their sheets are [email protected] received hundreds of letters cannot understand what guilt less like toilets. It just didn’t from readers who wondered means without a recogni- seem polite to ask. Address letters to DISCOVER if they or someone they knew tion that we have failed in 275 Seventh Ave. might be a tetrachromat. At some way to hold ourselves Finding Alien Urbanites 21st Floor the moment there is no way to to a higher standard. For all Traditionally, alien hunters have New York, NY 10001 take Jordan’s test for tetra- their intelligence, dogs do not used radio dishes to try to inter- chromacy outside her U.K. lab, appear to have this conception cept the interstellar communi- Include your full name, address, and daytime nor is there a scientifically of moral good. A more inter- cations of ET. Steve Nadis (Out phone number. rigorous test online. If testing esting question is whether There, page 88) described a in the United States becomes nonhuman primates like different approach: searching possible, we will cover it at gorillas do have the capacity for city lights on other worlds. discovermagazine.com for moral evaluation. Despite the cleverness of this Geoffrey Frasz detection method, it is likely Body Swap Skepticism Las Vegas, NV that cities built by aliens with “5 Ways to Leave Your Body” intelligence superior to our (page 50) described technol- Pillow Invaders own will have eliminated light ogy that makes people feel as “Mapping the Home’s Microbe pollution, thus rendering their if they have swapped bodies. Habitats” (page 37) described cities invisible. Ian Stirling What the scientists in the the Wildlife of Our Homes proj- Long Valley, NJ article call out-of-body ect, led by ecologist Rob Dunn, experiences may actually which is identifying the micro- Erratum be empathy responses. Our bial ecosystems that flourish in In “Hidden Truths of Health” brains can make us grab our U.S. households. Among other (page 60), we incorrectly own arm when a kid falls out findings, the survey has found stated the year that the drug of a tree and cry when friends that many bacteria on toilets Vioxx was pulled off the tell painful stories about their match those on pillowcases. market. It was 2004. 4 DISCOVER DSC-ML1012 [Pr].indd 4 7/18/12 3:54 PM ® EDITOR’S NOTE M A G A Z I N E Corey S. Powell editor in chief Michael F. Di Ioia creative director Population’s Peak EDITORIAL Pamela Weintraub Tina Wooden executive editor managing editor Kevin Berger senior editor Eric A. Powell senior editor Jennifer Barone senior associate editor Amy Barth associate editor Andrew Grant associate editor Valerie Ross reporter/researcher what about overpopulation? Rebecca Chin editorial assistant It’s an inevitable question. Conventional wisdom says interns Emma Bryce, Fangfei Shen that the demands of an ever-growing number of humans Cynthia S. Barder production coordinator contributing editors will soon push our planet’s resources to the limit. Surely Sean Carroll, Tim Folger, David H. Freedman, Bruno Maddox, Linda Marsa, Kathleen McAuliffe, any discussion of “the future of population” would have to Kat McGowan, Jill Neimark, Adam Piore, Phil Plait, Dava Sobel, Gary Taubes, Carl Zimmer focus there. But two pieces of information steered me— C DarlFernaen RkC aManvadaiilo iSecrlca o tsk p edeAnec Rpi apuTlht opytr aoor jeted cdititrso edrcirtoecrtor anOd nthe iiss itshseu eh—istinor ay doifff fearileendt pdriorejecctitoionn.s about the conse- MACHINE IN Katie Hausenbauer assistant photo editor quences of population growth. The most notorious warning UL RF Douglas Adesckoon, Ttrimiboutthiyn Agr acrhtibisatlds, C. J. Burton, came from English economist Thomas Malthus, who in 1798 ONDE CaTliembJ OC. ’HhBaerrinelarnyn, d FJ,ao Ainr,na Dnth eEorlenliko R tLote sCae,u nSt,t piMnegan,cc Jkeoers nLhzouiwea eSDllta,r ro dhe, n , wmreottreic: a“lP roaptuiol,a atinodn ,s uwbhseisnt eunncceh feocrk meda,n i ninc raena saerdit hinm ae tgiecoa-l AMER/W ShaDnInSoCnO TVaEgRgaMrAt, GNAaZthINanEi.eCl OWMelch ratio.” In other words, mouths multiply more quickly than BILL CR Amos Zeeberg managing editor, online our ability to feed them—yet we are still feeding them. Gemma Shusterman web producer In his 1968 best seller, The Population Bomb, biologist Mass starvation Veronique Greenwood staff writer Sophie Bushwick intern Paul Ehrlich more specifically declared, “In the 1970s and 1980s, hundreds of millions of people will starve to ADVERTISING SALES OFFICES is even less likely DISPLAY death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon NEW YORK Tom Buttrick account manager now.” Famines on that scale never arrived. 917 421 9051 today than it was DETROIT Second and more important is why Malthus and Leslie Palmer account manager 248 530 0300 x1401 Ehrlich were so wrong. Resources are not fixed things. CHICAGO Joe Wholley account manager Better farming can drastically increase the food supply. in the 1960s. 312 236 4900 x1102 LOS ANGELES New energy sources enable much higher standards of Joe Rafael account manager 213 596 7205 living. And then behavior changes in response: More Kim McGraw account manager 213 596 7215 access to resources tends to make people have fewer DIRECT RESPONSE children, not more. As a result the world’s population will east coast Ilyssa Somer 917 421 9055 probably hit its peak around 2100, followed by a historic Reina Miller 917 421 9052 midwest leveling off and likely downturn (see page 30). Joe Wholley 312 236 4900 x1102 Those changes will have their own disruptive effects. west coast Kim McGraw 213 596 7215 We will see an overall aging of the world that could slow marketplace & classifieds Chariya Milindawad 312 348 1201 economic growth and fray the social nets that support the marJkuentei nCg. Ldoiruegcht or elderly (page 32). We will see more of the afflictions of old Susan Weiss age (page 48) and greater efforts to eliminate aging entirely research director Sara Everts (page 60). Today’s inequalities and environmental challenges advertising services manager will not go away, and may yet reach crisis levels (page 52). KALMBACH PUBLISHING CO. Charles R. Croft president But mass starvation is even less likely today than it Kevin P. Keefe vice president, editorial, publisher was in Ehrlich’s heyday. Human ingenuity and behavior, Scott Stollberg vice president, advertising Scott Bong corporate advertising director not gross numbers, are the real secret to understanding Daniel R. Lance vice president, marketing where our species is headed. Michael Barbee corporate circulation director Ken Meisinger group circulation manager Brian Schmidt director of operations SUBSCRIPTIONS In the U.S., $29.95 for one year; in Canada, $39.95 for one year (U.S. funds only), includes GST, BN 12271 3209RT; other foreign countries, $44.95 for one year (U.S. funds only). SUBSCRIBER INQUIRIES DCRcusts8e0rv0@ 8c2d9s f9u1lf3il2lment.com Corey S. Powell, editor in Chief P.O. Box 37807, Boone, IA 50037. Back issues available. EDITORIAL INQUIRIES [email protected] 275 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001 5 10.2012 DSC-EP1012 [Pr].indd 5 8/2/12 7:52 AM DATA 6 DISCOVER DSC-DA1012 [Pr].indd 6 7/15/12 10:54 AM Heavens in Motion Earth and the stars project blurred arcs of motion in this 15-minute time-lapse photograph taken from the International Space Station in March. From 240 miles above Earth’s surface, lightning is visible as bright blotches, and city lights appear as yellow streaks; the atmosphere glows in bands of yellow, green, and red as energetic air molecules interact and emit light, a process (called airglow) that is difficult to see from the ground. The circular star trails result from the long exposure as the station, partially visible at top, orbits Earth at 18,000 miles per hour. Astronaut Don Pettit created this photo by remotely snapping 18 shots from an external camera and combining them with imaging software. fangfei shen A AS N 7 10.2012 DSC-DA1012 [Pr].indd 7 7/15/12 10:55 AM DATA PORTRAIT OF AN IMPOSTOR Phyllium giganteum, one of the largest of the world’s 30 or so species of leaflike insects, peers at the camera in OTO panhdo tbolgortacphheesr o Mf tichhee pl lGanutnst hite er’ast Ps.a Irtiss osrtguadnios. aInred iggaetnhoeurse dto i nM aa slamysailal ,r itdhgise 4o-nin itcsh u “nwdaelrksiindge l teoa fa”l lmowa tac hselesn tdheer ,s lheaapfye BIOSPH physique. The insect’s breezy swaying completes its camouflage. Although females like this one can reproduce HER/ by cloning themselves, they also mate with males to enable genetic exchange and promote diversity driving the NT U G evolutionary engine that allowed the insects to blend in with their environment in the first place. emma bryce HEL C MI 8 DISCOVER DSC-DA1012 [Pr].indd 8 7/15/12 10:55 AM DATA G I B tap the healing power of poop For patients chronically debilitated by colitis, transplanting feces from a healthy donor can offer a lifelong cure. I t’s flushed down dark Crohn’s disease to constipation. year a review of 317 patients treat- pipes into malodorous sew- The procedure of transferring ed by 27 different research groups ers. It is the very definition stool to a patient—technically found an astounding 92 percent of “waste.” But it turns out called fecal microbiota transplan- cure rate from this unusual therapy. that human feces may also have tation—was first performed in the Now a group of physicians have amazing healing properties, due to United States in 1958 to treat an designed the fecal treatment’s first the trillions of colon microorgan- intractable case of C. difficile colitis, double-blind trial, in which nei- isms that it contains. Stool from a gastrointestinal condition caused ther patient nor researcher knows a healthy person, recent findings when the balance of microbes in whether a placebo or a healthy show, can cure nine out of ten the gut—called the microbiome—is microbiome is being delivered to chronic cases of potentially deadly destabilized or destroyed. The goal the ailing gut. Before that can hap- colitis caused by the intestinal was to banish C. difficile by over- pen, though, the fda needs to bacterium Clostridium difficile. powering it with healthy microbes approve the use of healthy donor Moreover, healthy stool might treat so that balance could be restored. stool as an “investigational new a range of other disorders, from The experiment worked, and last drug.” Then the National Institutes 10 DISCOVER DSC-DB1012 [Pr].indd 10 8/2/12 10:19 AM of Health must provide funding. most strains of C. difficile, it also and we’re giving them something Colleen Kelly, a gastroenterolo- produces heat-resistant spores back that has been missing. These gist in Providence, Rhode Island, that can persist and lead to relapse. bugs have an effect on energy and who is helping design the trial, says In 2010 gastroenterologist and immune function in a dramatic and the first patient she treated with a immunologist Alex Khoruts of the mysterious way,” she says. fecal transplant was a premed stu- University of Minnesota analyzed And C. difficile colitis is just the dent in 2008 who was completely the microbiome of a 61-year-old start. An Australian pioneer in fecal debilitated by six painful months woman suffering from recurrent transplants, Thomas Borody, has of C. difficile colitis. “I tried every C. difficile colitis so severe that she performed the procedure in more standard regimen of treatment. was in a wheelchair with diapers. than 1,900 patients, and has also Nothing worked,” Kelly says. After Prior to receiving donor stool from found success treating irritable the patient received a transplant of her husband, her microbiota were bowel syndrome, profound con- her live-in boyfriend’s stool, she was largely pathogenic, as indicated stipation, and otherwise intrac- cured. “When I saw her at follow- by dna sequencing. Two weeks table Crohn’s disease. “Crohn’s will up, she looked fantastic,” Kelly says, after a fecal transplant, her flora often slowly regress with repeated “smiling and completely symptom resembled that of her husband. She fecal infusions,” Borody says. With free. She told me she’d felt better recovered completely. typical Australian humor, he con- the same day as the transplant. I’ve cludes, “It’s a whole new form of done 72 of these now, and I hear the fecal transplant therapootics.” jill neimark that again and again.” At present, fecal transplantation is Growing interest in the uncon- a simple protocol. A donor (often a ventional therapy is due in part to healthy relative or close friend) is a user’s GuiDe the fact that C. difficile colitis cases tested to be sure he or she doesn’t to your MicroBioMe have tripled in the past decade and carry any of the common blood or now afflict more than half a million gut diseases, while the recipient people a year. “C. difficile colitis is a undergoes the same kind of cleans- Trillions of microbes inhabit the human body, protecting us from terrible problem, and fecal trans- ing prep one would get before pathogens and keeping our systems in tune. Now scientists at the Human Microbiome Project, funded by the National Institutes plant results are astounding,” says a colonoscopy. Then the doctor of Health, have sequenced the genomes of almost every strain Lawrence J. Brandt, emeritus chief processes the donated feces into we harbor and mapped them to the organs where they live. Re- of gastroenterology at Montefiore a smooth liquid consistency and searchers worldwide are discovering the specific roles microbes Medical Center in New York. He is a infuses it into the patient’s colon play in our health. amy barth proponent of fecal transplant ther- via a colonoscope tube or enema. apy as a primary treatment for C. The healthy microbe community Nose People with chronic rhinosinusitis a sinus inflam- difficile, rather than as a last resort. in the sample then begins to take mation responsible for about over and populate the patient’s gut, 22 million U.S. doctor visits a a crisis of colitis restoring a balanced microbiome. year have significantly less The need for a better treatment is Despite strong anecdotal and bacterial diversity in their noses great. C. difficile occurs mostly in case evidence, only a few physicians than healthy controls. They also have an excess of normally hospitalized patients who have scattered around the country actu- innocuous Corynebacterium. received antibiotics, which kill off ally perform fecal therapy. It won’t many of our “good” bacteria. Up be more widely used until we have LuNgs Newborns with certain ck allais/Gallery stock tspsaouere ecffr2 oce0lenir kpn daeet;t lr oayclef ne tandtosht t 6oho 5osaf e nvpi neege f orreece cvoectennuend rtt r oompe fnah otctariheeve;one . 3s tAa5es tbasahtnniuoedadm l tuyyee snct ipathsikr nlme etochsali aospyteg l aalpyylc l staieoonn. Anaiadn edcedavlni alndytniziofcceuyae balst lh seimene-tb itsdclipinrnnoegad--, taagbtyhersapeatsch enttmsmes t orhaoairoasf.e tlsAb heldai mk sicwvteateuilettyrdihrs cyitoiasot iu y nhidtn ia ean ttvhvd heteeuhe l fleoidtarsipi rrsl u semlunuaonggsrgs-ee s. n osite: fra finewfe cstuefdfe creorlos na crteumaollvye hda ivne otrhdeeirr cthifaitc seelte tmhee nsytsst einm t rhigeh dt.onor feces RepRoductive systeM opp to “cure” the disease. For Kelly, the future cannot come In June obstetricians described my. the vaginal microbiome of ner/ala lenAt lsatrrmaiinn gemly,e ar gdeedc athdaet acgaon aa tvtiarcuk- saoso ank einn otuog ah .t “iWssue ea roer l ooorkgianng tarta tnhsis- ptrriemgensatenrt, wLaocmtoebna. cBilylu tsh jeo hthnisrodn ii, m top: istock; mark Wie icsmntoruduaciirvhnsi d eopu fro aotfhld seau andcfeittsieseb rua ijospuet s’tistoc p so2r.n 3imTe t hairmoreyu e nttsioe naxwes- pbiWtli’saoe n’smroet,” emt srfeahutnenh sscipnatlyigaos nyn. to“sAiun lh igck eaaean hla’ttehn layi vol tgerhu gwyta mimnth,ii ccaorrnuoodt--. udpfosrigreu esdasuilgtlmy em asfoitbliuklnyn,g bdt obe i rncpeo ratemhspetea mgsre uial tkib nt.u foan hndetaslnp t , fro ins as the common version. Like biome. We do the fecal transplant 11 10.2012 DSC-DB1012 [Pr].indd 11 8/2/12 10:19 AM