id9145690 pdfMachine by Broadgun Software - a great PDF writer! - a great PDF creator! - http://www.pdfmachine.com http://www.broadgun.com Addis Ababa University School of Graduate Studies Department of Earth Science Land Use /Land Cover Dynamics in Prosopis juliflora invaded area of Metehara and the Surrounding Districts Using Remote Sensing & GIS Techniques By: Ashenafi Burka A Thesis Submitted for Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Award of the Degree of Master of Science in Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) Advisor: Dr. Dagnachew Legesse ADDIS ABABA UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES DEPARTMENT OF EARTH SCIENCE Land Use /Land Cover Dynamics in Prosopis juliflora invaded Area of Metehara and the Surrounding Districts Using Remote Sensing & GIS Techniques By: Ashenafi Burka A Thesis Submitted for Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Award of the Degree of Master of Science in Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) Approved by Board of Examiners: Dr. Balemual Atnafu ------------------------------------------------ Chairman, Department Graduate Committee Dr. Dagnachew Legesse -------------------------------------------------------- Advisor Dr. Suryabhagavan -------------------------------------------------------- Examiner LULC Dynamics in P.juliflora invaded area of Metehara & the Surrounding Districts 2 0 0 8 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT First and foremost, I would like to thank, the (cid:147)Almighty God(cid:148) who made it possible to begin and finish this study successfully. I am very much grateful to my advisor, Dr. Dagnachew Legesse, Associate Dean for Graduate Studies and Research in Science Faculty, for his usual advice, guidance and encouragement to accomplish my work successfully. I also need to thank Dr. K.V. Suryabhagavan for his collaboration in sharing knowledge and invaluable comment. I would like to express my deepest gratitude to Ato Esayiyas Sahlu and Dr. Yohannes G/Michael from Department of Geography and Environmental Studies and Dr. Mulugeta Feseha, Dean for College of Development Studies, for their commitment to solve my problem. Thank you very much for the role you have played for my successful completion of the study. I am also thankful to Fentale Woreda Agricultural Office and Metehara Sugar factory for their cooperation in providing me vehicle and expert for the data collection process. My warmest thanks also goes to Shiferw Alem, a researcher in Forest Research Center, for his unreserved and tireless support, sharing of knowledge and invaluable advice in every aspect of my work. Special thanks to my friends, Zelalem Temesgen, Adugna Girma, Bamlaku Amente, Amanuel Tesfay, Tezera Chernet and Wondosen for their kind support in organizing my field work and data collection process. I wish to thank also my friends Endalemaw Gedlu, Aynadis Tafesse, Lidetu Mamo and Sisay Tefera for their financial and moral support. I have no equivalent words to express my gratitude to my mother, Marege Areda and my sister Etensh Burka for their persistent encouragement and support through out my study. I would like to thank all of the individuals who contribute something for the completion of my study. Finally, I would like to thank the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) for the provision of financial support to complete my thesis work. My study would have been very difficult without the support of CIDA. RS & GIS, Department of Earth Science, AAU II LULC Dynamics in P.juliflora invaded area of Metehara & the Surrounding Districts 2 0 0 8 TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENT .............................................................................................................................................. I TABLE OF CONTENTS .............................................................................................................................................. III LIST OF ABBREVIATION .......................................................................................................................................... V LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................................................. VI LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................................................................... VII LIST OF PHOTES.................................................................................................................................................... VII ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................................................................... VIII 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1. BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY ..................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2. STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM .................................................................................................................................... 3 1.3. OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY ......................................................................................................................................... 6 1.3.1. General objective: ....................................................................................................................................... 6 1.3.2. Specific objectives: ...................................................................................................................................... 6 2. LITERATURE REVIEW .......................................................................................................................................... 6 2.1. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK........................................................................................................................................ 6 2.1.1. RS & GIS for Land Use/Land Cover .............................................................................................................. 6 2.1.2. Land use/Land cover ................................................................................................................................... 8 2.1.3. Digital Image Processing ............................................................................................................................. 9 2.1.3.1. Satellite Image Classification ................................................................................................................. 10 2.1.3.2 Change Detection .................................................................................................................................... 12 2.1.4. Geostatistical Analysis .............................................................................................................................. 13 2.2. LULC CHANGE AT GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE .................................................................................................................... 16 2.3. LULC CHANGE AT NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE ................................................................................................................. 17 2.3.1. LULC Change in the Highland of Ethiopia .................................................................................................. 17 2.3.2. LULC Change in the Lowland of Ethiopia................................................................................................... 18 3. DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY AREA ................................................................................................................... 19 3.1. LOCATION ............................................................................................................................................................ 19 3.2. CLIMATE .............................................................................................................................................................. 20 3.3. PHYSIOGRAPHY ...................................................................................................................................................... 20 3.4. SOIL .................................................................................................................................................................... 21 3.5. LAND USE AND LAND COVER .................................................................................................................................... 21 3.5.1 Semi-Natural vegetation ............................................................................................................................ 21 3.5.2 The open Grass land ................................................................................................................................... 22 3.5.3. Shrub land/Grass land ............................................................................................................................... 22 3.5.4. Riverine Vegetation ................................................................................................................................... 22 3.5.5. Water ........................................................................................................................................................ 22 3.5.6. Cultivated land .......................................................................................................................................... 23 3.6 SOCIO-ECONOMIC FEATURES .................................................................................................................................... 23 3.6.1. Economic Base .......................................................................................................................................... 23 3.6.2. Population and Social structure ................................................................................................................ 24 3.7. STATUS OF PROSOPIS JULIFLORA ............................................................................................................................... 24 RS & GIS, Department of Earth Science, AAU III LULC Dynamics in P.juliflora invaded area of Metehara & the Surrounding Districts 2 0 0 8 4. MATERIALS AND METHODS .............................................................................................................................. 25 4.1. DATA AND MATERIALS USED .................................................................................................................................... 25 4.2. DATA COLLECTION ................................................................................................................................................. 26 4.2.1. Field work .................................................................................................................................................. 26 4.2.1.1 Sampling method for P.juliflora mapping ............................................................................................... 26 4.2.1. 2. Socio-economic Survey .......................................................................................................................... 27 4.3. METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................................................................................... 28 4.3.1. Image processing ...................................................................................................................................... 28 4.3.2. Geostatistical Analysis .............................................................................................................................. 33 4.3.2.1. Exploring the Data ................................................................................................................................. 33 4.3.2.2. Variogram Modeling .............................................................................................................................. 34 4.3.2.3. Kriging and Mapping (Densification) ..................................................................................................... 36 5. RESULT AND DISCUSION ................................................................................................................................... 38 5.1. LAND USE /LAND COVER OF THE STUDY AREA ............................................................................................................. 38 5.2. LAND USE/LAND COVER CHANGE DETECTION ............................................................................................................. 42 5.3. CAUSES AND EFFECT OF LAND USE/COVER CHANGE ..................................................................................................... 50 5.4. ASSESSMENT IN SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF PROSOPIS JULIFLORA ..................................................................................... 51 5.5. SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF P. JULIFLORA ................................................................................ 52 6. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS .......................................................................................................... 57 6.1. CONCLUSION......................................................................................................................................................... 57 6.2. RECOMMENDATIONS .............................................................................................................................................. 59 REFERENCES .................................................................................................................................................... 61 APPENDICES .......................................................................................................................................................... 67 RS & GIS, Department of Earth Science, AAU IV LULC Dynamics in P.juliflora invaded area of Metehara & the Surrounding Districts 2 0 0 8 LIST OF ABBREVIATION ASE: Average Standard Error ASLNP: Abijata Shala Lakes National Park ASTER: Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer EIAR: Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research ETM+: Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus FAO: Food and Agricultural Organization FCC: False color Composite GIS: Geographical Information System GPS: Global Positioning System ISODATA: Iterative Self-Organizing Data Analysis Technique IAS: Invasive Alien Species LUCC: Land Use and Cover Change LULC: Land use and Land Cover ML: Maximum Likelihood MSS: Multi Spectral Scanner OK: Ordinary Kriging RMSE: Root Mean Squared prediction Error RMSSE: Root Mean Square Standard Error RS: Remote Sensing TCC: True Color Composite TM: Thematic Mapper VNIR: Visible and Near Infra Red RS & GIS, Department of Earth Science, AAU V LULC Dynamics in P.juliflora invaded area of Metehara & the Surrounding Districts 2 0 0 8 LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1: A THEORETICAL FEATURE OF SEMIVARIOGRAM DEPICTING RANGE, SILL, AND NUGGET, WHERE (S, S) IS THE LOCATION I I COORDINATE OF LOCATION I (ESRI, 2004). .................................................................................................................. 15 FIGURE 2: LOCATION OF STUDY AREA. ................................................................................................................................... 19 FIGURE 3: CLIMATE DIAGRAM FOR METEHARA & ITS SURROUNDING, (DRAWN AFTER WALTER, 1985) (SOURCE OF CLIMATE DATA: METEHARA SUGAR FACTORY RESEARCH CENTER) ........................................................................................................... 20 FIGURE 4: FLOW CHART DEPICTING LAND USE/COVER MAPPING, CHANGE DETECTION & GEOSTATISTICAL ANALYSIS. ............................. 29 FIGURE 5: FALSE COLOR COMPOSITE (4:2:1) MAP OF LANDSAT MSS IMAGE (SOURCE: 1973 LANDSAT MSS IMAGE).......................... 30 FIGURE 6: FALSE COLOR COMPOSITE (4:7:1) MAP OF LANDSAT TM IMAGE (SOURCE: 1986 TM IMAGE). ......................................... 31 FIGURE 7: TRUE COLOR COMPOSITE (3:2:1) MAP OF ASTER IMAGE (SOURCE: 2002 ASTER IMAGE). ............................................. 31 FIGURE 8: EXPERIMENTAL VARIOGRAM MODEL (INDICATED BY YELLOW LINE (ESRI, 2001) FOR SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF P.JULIFLORA MAP (SOURCE: SEMIVARIOGRAM/COVARIANCE MODELING INTERFACE OF GEOSTATISTICAL ANALYST EXTENSION IN ARCGIS 9.1). ....... 35 FIGURE 9: A) EXPERIMENTAL VARIOGRAM MODEL FOR DENSITY PREDICTION OF P.JULIFLORA, AND B) NON-OUTLINED PREDICTION MAP GENERATED USING EXPERIMENTAL VARIOGRAM MODEL. .................................................................................................. 37 FIGURE 10: A) MAP OF STUDY AREA KEBELES WITH BOUNDARY OF SURVEYED AREA FOR P.JULIFLORA ASSESSMENT, AND B) THE P.JULIFLORA OUTLINED PREDICTION MAP PRODUCED USING EXPERIMENTAL VARIOGRAM (FIGURE 14A) .................................... 38 FIGURE 11: LAND USE/LAND COVER MAP OF THE STUDY AREA IN 1973 9 SOURCE: 1973 LANDSAT MSS IMAGE CLASSIFICATION) .......... 39 FIGURE 12: PERCENTAGE OF LAND USE/LAND COVER CLASSES IN 1973. ...................................................................................... 39 FIGURE 13: LAND USE/LAND COVER MAP OF THE STUDY AREA IN 1986 (SOURCE: 1986 LANDSAT TM IMAGE CLASSIFICATION). ............ 40 FIGURE 14: PERCENTAGE OF LAND USE/LAND COVER IN 1986................................................................................................... 41 FIGURE 15: PERCENTAGE OF LAND USE/LAND COVER IN 2002................................................................................................... 41 FIGURE 16: LAND USE/LAND COVER MAP OF THE STUDY AREA IN 2002. (SOURCE: 2002 ASTER IMAGE CLASSIFICATION). ................... 42 FIGURE 17: PERCENTAGE INFLUENCE OF RATE OF LULC CHANGE BETWEEN 1973 AND 1986. ......................................................... 43 FIGURE 18: PERCENTAGE INFLUENCE OF RATE OF LULC CHANGE BETWEEN 1986 AND 2002. ......................................................... 44 FIGURE 19: PERCENTAGE INFLUENCE OF RATE OF LULC CHANGE BETWEEN 1973 AND 2002. ......................................................... 45 Figure 20: WOOD LAND COVERS IN A)1973, B)1986, C) 2002 AND D) CHART DEPCTING AREA COVERAGE(cid:133)(cid:133)(cid:133)(cid:133)(cid:133)(cid:133)(cid:133)(cid:133)(cid:133)(cid:133)(cid:133)(cid:133)(cid:133)(cid:133)(cid:133)(cid:133)..46 FIGURE 21: GRASS LAND COVERS IN A) 1973, B) 1986, C) 2002 AND D) CHART DEPICTING AREA COVERAGE. .................................. 47 FIGURE 22: OPEN SHRUB LAND A) 1973, B) 1986, C) 2002 AND D) CHART DEPICTING AREA COVERAGE. ........................................ 47 FIGURE 23: P.JULIFLORA DENSITY PER 400M2 AREA PLOT SIZE. ................................................................................................... 51 FIGURE 24: THE CURRENT DENSITY OF P.JULIFLORA IN METEHARA AND ITS SURROUNDING AREA. (PREPAR ED FROM FIELD DATA GEOSTATISTICAL ANALYSIS). ....................................................................................................................................... 52 RS & GIS, Department of Earth Science, AAU VI LULC Dynamics in P.juliflora invaded area of Metehara & the Surrounding Districts 2 0 0 8 LIST OF TABLES TABLE 1: TEMPORAL SIZE INCREMENT OF LAKE BESEKA ............................................................................................................. 22 TABLE 2: SATELLITE IMAGE AND SOFTWARE USED. ................................................................................................................... 26 TABLE 3: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS FOR NUMBER OF TREES PER SAMPLE AND DENSITY (NUMBER OF TREES/HA). .................................... 34 TABLE 4: MODEL PARAMETERS FOR DIFFERENT ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS. .................................................................................. 35 TABLE 5: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS FOR COMPARISON OF TWO KRIGING METHODS IN SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION PREDICTION OF P.JULIFLORA. .. 36 TABLE 6: LULC CHANGE OF THE STUDY AREA BETWEEN 1973 AND 1986. ................................................................................... 43 TABLE 7: LULC CHANGE OF THE STUDY AREA BETWEEN 1986 AND 2002. .................................................................................. 44 TABLE 8: LULC CHANGE OF THE STUDY AREA BETWEEN 1973 AND 2002. ................................................................................... 44 TABLE 9: RATE OF CHANGE BETWEEN 1973-1986, 1973-2002 AND 1986-2002. ..................................................................... 48 TABLE 10: LAND USE/COVER CONVERSION MATRIX OF THE STUDY AREA BETWEEN THE YEARS OF 1973-1986. .................................... 48 TABLE 11: LAND USE/COVER CONVERSION MATRIX OF THE STUDY AREA BETWEEN THE YEARS 1986-2002. ........................................ 49 TABLE 12: THE EXPECTED MEANS OF INTRODUCTION OF PROSOPIS JULIFLORA IN METEHARA AND ITS SURROUNDING. .......................... 53 TABLE 13: AGENTS FACILITATING DISSEMINATION OF P.JULIFLORA IN METEHARA AND ITS SURROUNDING. .......................................... 53 TABLE 14: INDIVIDUALS’ PERCEPTION ON THE INVASIVENESS OF P.JULIFLORA IN METEHARA AND ITS SURROUNDING. ............................ 54 TABLE 15: EFFECT OF P.JULIFLORA ON LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION IN METEHARA AND ITS SURROUNDING. ............................................. 55 TABLE 16: ATTITUDE OF INDIVIDUALS(cid:146) ON PROSOPIS JULIFLORA IN METEHARA AND ITS SURROUNDING. ............................................. 56 LIST OF PHOTES FIELD PHOTO 1: THE ACACIA WOOD LAND BELOW THE FOOTHILL OF FENTALE MOUNTAIN (PHOTO BY AUTHOR; JULY, 2008). ............... 21 FIELD PHOTO 2: PARTIAL VIEW OF THE EXPANDING BESEKA LAKE. (PHOTO BY THE AUTHOR; JULY, 2008). ......................................... 23 FIELD PHOTO 3: PROSOPIS JULIFLORA INFESTATION (A) ON GRASS LAND AROUND ADDIS KETEMA TOWN, AND (B) ON DEGRADED GRASS LAND AT GOLAN KEBELE OF THE STUDY AREA. (PHOTO BY THE AUTHOR; SEPTEMBER, 2008). ................................................. 25 FIELD PHOTO 4: (A) PROSOPIS JULIFLORA STAND IN METEHRA SUGAR FACTORY NEAR SUGAR CANE PLANTATION, AND (B) P.JULIFLORA INFESTATION ON BARREN LAND AROUND METEHARA TOWN. (PHOTO BY THE AUTHOR; SEPTEMBER, 20080. ............................ 25 RS & GIS, Department of Earth Science, AAU VII LULC Dynamics in P.juliflora invaded area of Metehara & the Surrounding Districts 2 0 0 8 ABSTRACT Land use and land cover changes are derived by natural process and anthropogenic interference in ecosystem. Appropriate management of natural resources requires quick and up-to-date information for effective decision making. The aim of this study is to generate such kind of information using RS and GIS technology to support the land use planning and strategy formulation of the newly emerging problem of the study area. The present study has been attempted to identify and quantify the main land use and land cover change that occurred for the last three decades. Besides, in this study assessment of the spatial distribution of Prosospis juliflora tree species using geostatistical analysis has been conducted. Three satellite imageries of Landsat MSS 1973, Landsat TM 1986 and ASTER 2002 were utilized for detection of Land use/land cover change. Prior to change detection analysis, land use/land cover map of 1973, 1986 and 2002 was generated. Eight land use/land cover classes have been identified from the three independent image classification processes. Subsequently, post classification change detection method was applied to quantify the land use/land cover change and to provide information about the source and destination of the change. The change detection analysis revealed the existence of significant land use/land cover change in the study area. The findings of change detection analysis indicates the continuous spatial increment of cultivated land, bare land and water body (Lake Beseka) at the expense of grass land and open shrub land. The rate of expansion of Lake Beseka and cultivation land was 109.9 ha and 63.8 ha per year from 1973 to 2002, respectively. On the other hand, the rate of decrease in spatial extent of open shrub land and grass land was 182.4 ha and 38.5 ha per year from 1973 to 2002, respectively. Using geostatitical analysis it has been possible to map the current invasion of the nuisance plant P.juliflora overcoming the problem of getting high spatial and spectral resolution satellite image. From the geostatistical analysis, the highest and the lowest density of the species has been observed at the southern and north western part of the study area, respectively. In addition, there has been a trend in decrease of P.juliflora density from south to north western and north eastern part of the study area. The infestation of P.juliflora has been observed in areas of relatively better moisture and lower altitude of the study area. Furthermore, socio-economic survey was conducted to assess the social and environmental impact of P.juliflora and the results of the survey disclosed that 91% of the respondent said that the species has a negative impact on other plants. In addition, 76% of the respondent from high infestation area and 90% from medium infestation area believed that P.juliflora has been threatening the livestock production by encroaching the grazing land. In general, significant land use/land cover change in the form of conversion and modification has been occurred in Metehara and its surrounding area. The outcome of land use/land cover change, geostatistical and socio-economic survey analysis can serve local and regional planners as a primary source of information for better management of natural resources in the study area. Key words: RS & GIS, LULC Change, Conversion and Modification, Geostatistics, Invasion, Prosopis juliflora. RS & GIS, Department of Earth Science, AAU VIII LULC Dynamics in P.juliflora invaded area of Metehara & the Surrounding Districts 2 0 0 8 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1. Background of the Study The earth has been in a state of continuous change since a long time ago. The adaptation of landscape by the action of man either to create better living condition or to cope with the demand of resource required to fulfill man(cid:146)s subsistence have taken place since the down of mankind. These activities of human being create an impact on the environment causing change by disturbing the equilibrium condition of nature. The impacts associated with, though significant at the beginning, have transformed the face of the earth for good or bad as no other living species ever done. The environmental change observed could be categorized into modification and total conversion. Being a less developed society, the observed changes of the land is swifter in Africa than in other continents. Environmental degradation is the most prevalent phenomenon in Ethiopia since agriculture was begun. High population pressure, decline of land holding size, low production, loss of soil fertility, and increasing demand for fuel energy and construction are some of the expected challenges to Ethiopia for the coming years. Modification of the environment has impact on the ecology and foster pressure on the living condition of human being. Land use and rapid alteration of land cover have great implications for the very existence of human as dependents of natural biophysical systems for survival (Kwabena, 2007). As stated also on Belay (2002) a change in land cover can negatively affect the potential use of an area and may ultimately lead to degradation and loss of productivity. It is natural, patterns and trends of the land use and land cover have under gone through changes since the element of land use and land cover is not static. Land use and land cover changes cause by natural and human activities. Land use change, caused by human activities accelerates the rate of deforestation, soil erosion and loss of biodiversity. And land use and land cover change have a great influence in global warming, loss of biodiversity, and impact on human life (Anwar, 2002). RS & GIS, Department of Earth Science, AAU 1