Skepticism Goes Mainstream | Dreams of Our Ancestors | Autism a Spectrum? | E.O. Wilson: Two Views | Website Decay Vol. 46, No. 5 | September/October 2022 VACCINATION AGAINST MISINFORMATION How to Sell Pseudoscience 9/11 Two Decades Later When Anecdotes Have Value $5.99 CAN/US Committee for Skeptical Inquiry | www.skepticalinquirer.org Robyn E. Blumner,* President and CEO Joe Nickell, Senior Research Fellow Benjamin Radford, Research Fellow Barry Karr,* Executive Director Massimo Polidoro, Research Fellow Richard Wiseman, Research Fellow Fellows James E. Alcock*, psychologist, York Univ., Toronto Connecticut State Univ. Lawrence Kusche, science writer Massimo Polidoro, science writer, author, executive Marcia Angell MD, former editor-in-chief, Krista Federspiel, medical journalist, author, Nathan H. Lents, professor of biology, City director of CICAP, Italy New England Journal of Medicine folklorist University of New York Anthony R. Pratkanis, professor of psychology, Kimball Atwood IV MD, physician, author, Newton, Kevin Folta, molecular biologist. Professor and Stephan Lewandowsky, psychologist, researcher, Univ. of California, Santa Cruz MA chairman of the Horticultural Sciences Department Univ. of Bristol, United Kingdom Donald R. Prothero, paleontologist, geologist, Banachek, professional magician/mentalist magic at the University of Florida Jere Lipps, Museum of Paleontology, Univ. of CA, author, National History Museum of Los Angeles consultant/producer Barbara Forrest, professor of philosophy, Berkeley County Stephen Barrett MD, psychiatrist, author, consumer SE Louisiana Univ. Elizabeth Loftus, professor of psychology, Univ. Benjamin Radford, investigator; research fellow, advocate, Pittsboro, NC Craig A. Foster, professor of psychology at SUNY of CA, Irvine Committee for Skeptical Inquiry Robert Bartholomew, sociologist and investigative Cortland, and writer William M. London, professor of public health, Amardeo Sarma*, chairman, GWUP, Germany journalist, Botany College in Auckland, Andrew Fraknoi, astronomer, U. of San Francisco California State University, Los Angeles Richard Saunders, Life Member of Australian New Zealand. Kendrick Frazier*, science writer, editor, SKEPTICAL Leighann Lord, standup comedian, author, host of Skeptics; educator; investigator; podcaster; Jann Johnson Bellamy, attorney, writer for Science- INQUIRER skeptic events and Skeptical Inquirer Presents Sydney, Australia Based Medicine blog, Tallahassee, FL Christopher C. French, professor, department of Daniel Loxton, writer, artist, editor, Skeptic Joe Schwarcz, director, McGill Office for Science Kenny Biddle, investigator, writer, podcaster, public psychology, and head of the Anomalistic Psychology magazine and Society speaker Research Unit, Goldsmiths College, Univ. of London Michael E. Mann, distinguished Professor of Eugenie C. Scott*, physical anthropologist, former Irving Biederman, psychologist, Univ. of Southern Julia Galef, writer, podcaster, public speaker Atmospheric Sciences and director of the Earth executive director (retired), National Center for CA Luigi Garlaschelli, chemist, Università di Pavia Systems Sciences Center Penn. State Univ. Science Education Sandra Blakeslee, science writer; author; New York (Italy), research fellow of CICAP, the Italian skeptics David Marks, psychologist, City Univ., London Seth Shostak, senior astronomer, SETI Institute, Times science correspondent group Michael Marshall, investigator, activist, podcaster, Mountain View, CA Susan Blackmore, visiting lecturer, Univ. of the West Maryanne Garry, professor, Dept. of Psychology, and editor of The Skeptic (U.K.) of England, Bristol University of Waikato, New Zealand Mario Mendez-Acosta, journalist and science Simon Singh, science writer; broadcaster; UK Alejandro Borgo, journalist and writer, Buenos Susan Gerbic, founder and leader of the Guerrilla writer, Mexico City Dick Smith, film producer, publisher, Terrey Hills, Aires, Argentina Skepticism on Wikipedia (GSoW) project Tim Mendham, executive officer and editor of The N.S.W., Australia Mark Boslough, physicist, Sandia National Thomas Gilovich, psychologist, Cornell Univ. Skeptic, Australian Skeptics, Sydney Keith E. Stanovich, cognitive psychologist; Laboratories (retired), Albuquerque, New Mexico David H. Gorski, cancer surgeon and researcher Kenneth R. Miller, professor of biology, Brown Univ. professor of human development and applied Glenn Branch, deputy director, National Center for at Barbara Ann Karmanos Cancer Institute, Wayne David Morrison, space scientist, NASA Ames psychology, Univ. of Toronto Science Education State University School of Medicine Research Center Karen Stollznow, linguist; skeptical investigator; Henri Broch, physicist, Univ. of Nice, France Natalie Grams-Nobmann, medical doctor, Richard A. Muller, professor of physics, Univ. of writer; podcaster Jan Harold Brunvand, folklorist, professor Heidelberg, Germany CA, Berkeley Jill Cornell Tarter, astronomer, SETI Institute, emeritus of English, Univ. of Utah David Robert Grimes, physicist, cancer researcher, Joe Nickell, senior research fellow, CSI Mountain View, CA Sean B. Carroll, molecular geneticist, vice author, Dublin, Ireland Jan Willem Nienhuys, mathematician, Waalre, The Carol Tavris, psychologist and author, Los Angeles, president for science education, Howard Hughes Wendy M. Grossman, writer; founder and first Netherlands CA Medical Institute, Madison, WI editor, The Skeptic magazine (UK) Lee Nisbet, professor emeritus of philosophy, David E. Thomas, physicist and mathematician, Thomas R. Casten, energy expert; chair, Myno Susan Haack, Cooper Senior Scholar in Arts and Medaille College Socorro, NM Carbon Corp., Hinsdale, IL Sciences, professor of philosophy and professor of Matthew C. Nisbet, professor of communication, Leonard Tramiel, physicist, science communicator, Timothy Caulfield, professor of health law and Law, Univ. of Miami public policy, and public affairs, Northeastern Palo Alto, California policy, University of Alberta, Canada Harriet Hall MD, family physician, investigator, University, Boston Neil deGrasse Tyson, astrophysicist and director, K.C. Cole, science writer, author, professor, Univ. Puyallup, WA Steven Novella MD, assistant professor of Hayden Planetarium, New York City of Southern California’s Annenberg School of Raymond E. Hall, professor of physics, California neurology, Yale Univ. School of Medicine James Underdown, writer, investigator, founder Journalism State University, Fresno Bill Nye, science educator and television host, of Center for Inquiry Investigations Group (CFIIG), John Cook, Center for Climate Change Michael Heap, clinical and forensic psychologist Nye Labs Los Angeles Communication, George Mason University, Virginia and lecturer (ret.), Sheffield, U.K. James E. Oberg, science writer Joseph Uscinski, political scientist, University Frederick Crews, literary and cultural critic, David J. Helfand, professor of astronomy, Columbia Paul Offit, physician, author, researcher, professor, of Miami professor emeritus of English, Univ. of CA, Berkeley Univ. Univ. of Pennsylvania Bertha Vazquez, science teacher, director of the Richard Dawkins, zoologist, Oxford Univ. Terence M. Hines, prof. of psychology, Pace Univ., Naomi Oreskes, geologist, science historian, Teacher Institute for Evolutionary Science (TIES) Geoffrey Dean, technical editor, Perth, Australia Pleasantville, NY professor, Harvard University Indre Viskontas, cognitive neuroscientist, tv and Daniel C. Dennett, Univ. professor and Austin B. Douglas R. Hofstadter, professor of human Loren Pankratz, psychologist, Oregon Health podcast host, and opera singer, San Francisco, CA Fletcher Professor of Philosophy, director of Center understanding and cognitive science, Indiana Univ. Sciences Univ. Marilyn vos Savant, Parade magazine contributing for Cognitive Studies at Tufts Univ. Gerald Holton, Mallinckrodt Professor of Physics Jay M. Pasachoff, Field Memorial Professor of editor Ann Druyan, writer and producer; CEO, Cosmos and professor of history of science, Harvard Univ. 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Watson Research Center Benjamin Wolozin, professor, department of CA of Public Policy, Washington, D.C. Massimo Pigliucci, professor of philosophy, City pharmacology, Boston Univ. School of Medicine Edzard Ernst, emeritus professor, Complementary Barry Karr, executive director, Committee for Univ. of New York–Lehman College Medicine, Peninsula Medical School, Universities of Skeptical Inquiry, Amherst, New York Steven Pinker, cognitive scientist, Harvard Univ. *Member, CSI Executive Council Exeter and Plymouth, Exeter, UK Edwin C. Krupp, astronomer, director, Griffith (Affiliations given for identification only.) Kenneth Feder, professor of anthropology, Central Observatory, Los Angeles, CA The SKEPTICAL INQUIRER (ISSN 0194-6730) is published bimonthly Manuscripts, editorial inquiries, and books for review should be To subscribe or change address go to skepticalinquirer.org. 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Skep ti cal In quir er September/October 2022 | Volume 46 No. 5 FEATURES COLUMNS 40 FROM THE EDITOR From Debunking to Prebunking: Skepticism’s Newly Recognized Relevance ..........4 How Skeptical Activism Must NEWS AND COM MENT Evolve to Meet the Growing Jan. 6 Investigation Testimony Reveals Conspiracy- Anti-Science Threat Riddled Trump White House / Great Expectations: Anti-science movements are rapidly expanding House Hearing on UAP Excites Fans, Offers Little and evolving. Our tools, as skeptics and critical Else / Rumors on WhatsApp Lead to Mob Killings in thinkers, must also evolve to meet this growing Mexico / Belgian Skeptics Group Wins Defamation 40 threat. Lawsuit / ‘I’m Not Superstitious, but I Am a Little Stitious’: Even Skeptics Cross Their Fingers / NICK TILLER New Fitness ‘Poop Pill’ Promises Olympic-Level 46 Results / Griffith Observatory Premiers Signs of Life Documentary ...............................................................5 How to Sell Pseudoscience INVESTIGATIVE FILES A great way to protect yourself against grifters and Double Mystery: The Murder and Secret Life their snake oil is to learn the techniques they use of ... Jack the Ripper? to sell it. So let’s have some fun and pretend to JOE NICKELL ...................................................................20 sell bunk! NOTES ON A STRANGE WORLD MELANIE TRECEK-KING 46 The Dreams of Our Ancestors MASSIMO POLIDORO .....................................................24 50 THE PHILOSOPHER'S CORNER 9/11 at 21: Perspectives in Light of A Different Take on E.O. Wilson the COVID-19 Pandemic MASSIMO PIGLIUCCI ......................................................26 While the overall response to the 9/11 attacks REALITY IS THE BEST MEDICINE was an overreaction, the critically delayed An Explanation for Gulf War Illness response to the far more deadly global pandemic HARRIET HALL ................................................................29 has been an underreaction. Why? CLARK R. CHAPMAN AND BEHAVIOR & BELIEF ALAN W. HARRIS Is Autism Really a Spectrum? 50 STUART VYSE ..................................................................31 53 THE PRACTICAL SKEPTIC Skeptical Recurrence and Decay Are Skeptics Wrong about the Value MICK WEST ....................................................................35 of Anecdotes? SKEPTICAL INQUIREE Anecdotes can have an important role in science Debunking ‘Weapons of Mass Distraction’ if the correct population for conclusions is identified and special care is taken about bias. Conspiracies They can even be utilized in formal testing of BENJAMIN RADFORD .....................................................37 some skeptical hypotheses about anomalous phenomena. NEW AND NOTABLE BOOKS .................................60 CHARLES G.M. PAXTON LET TERS TO THE ED I TOR ......................................65 53 GALLERY INTERVIEW 14 18 REVIEWS First James Webb Space Telescope Rebooting Critical Thinking Predictions—or Coincidences? Images JULIA LAVARNWAY KARL SABBAGH .................................................59 The Premonitions Bureau: A True Story By Sam Knight COMMENTARY FOLLOW UP 15 63 Questioning the Quest for Immortality Critical Study of Nonsense Finally a A Brief Response to Pigliucci’s GABRIEL ANDRADE .............................................61 The Price of Immortality: The Race to Mainstream Concern Column on E.O. Wilson Live Forever DANIEL LOXTON BERT HÖLLDOBLER By Peter Ward Committee for Skeptical Inquiry “... promotes scientific inquiry, critical investigation, and the use of reason in examining controversial and extraordinary claims.” Skep ti cal Inq uir er [ FROM THE EDITOR ™ THE MAGA ZINE FOR SCI ENCE AND REA SON Skepticism’s Newly Recognized Relevance ED I TOR Kend rick Fra zi er DEPUTY ED I TOR Ben ja min Rad ford MAN A GING ED I TOR Julia Lavarnway Suddenly the things we skeptics have been warning about for decades— ASSISTANT EDITOR Nicole Scott the dangers of a population unable or unwilling to discern truth from ART DIRECTOR Alexander Nicaise nontruth—have become a mainstream concern. Our organization was WEBMASTER Michael Powell PUB LISH ER’S REP RE SENT A TIVE Bar ry Karr founded because of the rise of uncontested belief in paranormal wonders and ED I TO RI AL BOARD James E. Alc ock, Robyn E. Blumner, pseudoscientific claims in the mid-1970s. Founder Paul Kurtz warned of the Harriet Hall, Ray Hy man, Barry Karr, Elizabeth Loftus, upsurge of irrationality and the dangers to society if scientists, scholars, and Joe Nickell, Am ar deo Sar ma, Eugenie C. Scott, David E. Thomas, Leonard Tramiel, Stuart Vyse others didn’t speak up and actively counter that misinformation. Later, our CON TRIB UT ING ED I TORS Harriet Hall, David Morrison, Joe colleague Carl Sagan—in this magazine, at our conferences, and in his book Nickell, Matthew C. Nisbet, Massimo Pigliucci, Massimo Polidoro, David E. Thomas, Stuart Vyse, Mick West, Rich- The Demon-Haunted World—poignantly warned of the dangers of a civilization ard Wis e man Published in association with unable to tell what’s real from what isn’t. Some critics complained that we were overreacting. We were not, and that is now apparent. It is not a big leap to go from credulous belief in psychic powers and other-worldly visitations to ready acceptance of dangerous conspiracy theories, cult-like delusions, and outright CHAIR Edward Tabash lies that have immense political and social consequence. PRESIDENT AND CEO Robyn E. Blumner Recently Jevin D. West and Carl T. Bergstrom of the University of Wash- CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER Barry Karr ington bluntly warned in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences— COR PO RATE COUN SEL Nicholas J. Little, Brenton Ver Ploeg one of the most respected scientific journals—that misinformation is far more SUBSCRIPTION DATA MANAGER Jacalyn Mohr dangerous to the world than most had thought: “Misinformation has reached COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR Paul Fidalgo crisis proportions. It poses a risk to international peace, interferes with demo- DI RECT OR OF LI BRAR IES Tim o thy S. Binga cratic decision making, endangers the well-being of the planet, and threatens EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, RICHARD DAWKINS FOUNDATION FOR REASON & SCIENCE Robyn E. Blumner public health.” There and in Bergstrom and West’s book Calling Bullshit, they DIRECTOR OF DEVELOPMENT Debbie Allen showed how to develop skills to counter the nonsense and call for mobilizing DIRECTOR, DIGITAL PRODUCT AND STRATEGY the science community. Michael Powell DIRECTOR OF GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS In an extended commentary in this issue, “Critical Study of Nonsense Fi- Azhar Majeed nally a Mainstream Concern,” skeptic and CSI Fellow Daniel Loxton writes DIRECTOR OF EDUCATION; DIRECTOR, TEACHER INSTITUTE FOR EVOLUTIONARY SCIENCE powerfully about all these issues. He praises the skeptic community’s early Bertha Vazquez warnings. He correctly notes that we have always been awash in misinfor- SYSTEM ADMINISTRATOR mation, but, as Sagan noted, “credulous and confused thinking” can be much Cody Hashman BOARD OF DIRECTORS Edward Tabash (chair), Vinod more lethal than before. Misinformation matters, Loxton emphasizes. It always Bhardwaj, David Cowan, Richard Dawkins, Brian Engler, has mattered, but now the “fringe” is not fringe but central to the lives of bil- Kendrick Frazier, Barry A. Kosmin, Bill Maxwell, Julia Sweeney, J. Anderson Thomson Jr., Leonard Tramiel. lions. “Misinformation may be the central challenge for our future as a species.” Honorary: Rebecca Newberger Goldstein, Susan Jacoby *** STAFF Melissa Braun, Aubrey Cook, Matthew Cravatta, Roe Giambrone, Aaron Green, Cynthia Kazaroff, Paul Paulin, Our cover illustrates one theme of Nick Tiller’s lead article about how best Eric Shaver, Vance Vigrass to counter the misinformation spread by anti-science movements. Don’t just debunk their claims but “prebunk” them. One method is, in effect, to inoculate people against misinformation by exposing them in advance to weak forms of misinformation to then develop immunity to its stronger forms. That way they can more easily spot it and develop counterarguments. Tiller, a senior research fellow at UCLA’s Harbor Medical Center, examines pseudoscience and misinformation. His article is a Skeptical Inquirer exclusive, but he has also recently started writing a regular column for us on our website skepticalinquirer.org. We are grateful, as always, for the insights and contributions of our scholars and investigators from all over the world who show how best to deal with the torrents of nonsense and misinformation that threaten to overwhelm society. —Kendrick Frazier Original cover art for SI by Sonya Katashonova CFI Mission: The Center for Inquiry strives to foster a secular society based on reason, science, freedom of inquiry, and humanist values. Our Vision: A world where people value evidence and critical thinking, where superstition and prejudice subside, and where science and compassion guide public policy. 4 Volume 46 Issue 5 | SkepticaOl Iunqr uViraelrues: Integrity, Courage, Innovation, Empathy, Learning, and Wonder. [ NEWS AND COMMENT Jan. 6 Investigation Testimony Reveals Conspiracy-Riddled Trump White House B R In June, the House committee inves- tigating the January 6, 2021, insur- rection  at the U.S. Capitol revealed damning evidence about the role that conspiracy theories played in both the Trump administration and the then-president’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election. Using both videotaped and live testimony—much of it from Republicans close to Trump—the com- mittee laid out a sustained pressure campaign orchestrated by Trump and his allies to spread the conspiracies, as Members of the Jan. 6 committee hear testimony. Photo by MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images. well as to abuse and harass those who rejected them. ment from Trump supporters. Bowers such as “they say …” or “I’m hearing …” Rusty Bowers, the Republican testified that when Giuliani was asked Barr stated that: speaker of Arizona’s House, testified about the basis for the election fraud The statements were made very con- about the harassment he and his family conspiracies, he replied, “We’ve got lots clusory, like, “These machines were suffered due to Trump supporters who of theories. We just don’t have the evi- designed to engage in fraud,” or acted on the vilification he received dence.” something to that effect. But I didn’t from the former president after refus- As The New York Times noted: see any supporting information for it … I thought, “Boy if he really ing to commit election fraud at Trump’s Shortly after the election, Mr. Trump believes this stuff, he has lost contact behest: and his allies seized on conspir- with—he’s become detached from acy theories, falsely claiming that reality, if he really believes this stuff.” Up till even recently, it is the new election workers in Atlanta had pattern, or a pattern in our lives, been caught on video quietly taking to worry what will happen on Barr reiterated that he had duly re- thousands of ballots from a suit- Saturdays. Because we have various searched the fraud claims and found case and feeding them into counting groups come by and they have had machines. Even though the allega- no evidence to support them, calling video panel trucks with videos of me tions were quickly investigated and Trump’s conspiracy claims “bullshit,” proclaiming me to be a pedophile and a pervert and a corrupt politi- debunked, Gabriel Sterling [one of “nonsense,” and “crazy stuff.” Georgia’s top election officials] said, cian and blaring loudspeakers in my Political conspiracies are nothing Mr. Trump and his lawyers con- neighborhood and leaving literature new and date back millennia—the tinued to push the claims in public [attacking me]. and on social media. Fighting back Roman Empire was rife with intrigue Others who refused to endorse or against this flood of misinformation, and plots—but Trump’s endorsement of accept Trump’s unfounded conspiracy Mr. Sterling said, was like “a shovel conspiracies is unprecedented in Ameri- trying to empty the ocean.” theories were similarly attacked and can politics. Never before have conspir- harassed; some were “doxxed,” having The hearings demonstrate that acies played such a prominent role in their personal information, including Trump was told—clearly and repeat- both presidential politics and history, as phone numbers, made public. Others edly—by several investigators, includ- the hearings reveal. had protesters with bullhorns outside ing then-Attorney General William Whether Trump himself sincerely their homes demanding they confess to Barr, that the conspiracy claims he was believes the conspiracies he peddles is nonexistent election fraud. spreading had been investigated and both unknowable and moot; many of Two female African American elec- were determined to be false. Barr tes- his followers continue to do so despite tion workers in Georgia, Ruby Freeman tified that Trump made bold, false con- overwhelming and conclusive evidence and her daughter Wandrea Moss, were spiracy statements and had abandoned to the contrary. Indeed, the election falsely implicated in an election fraud any pretense that the claims were un- fraud conspiracy has been widely ad- by Trump’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani. Both proven or speculative. He also did not opted; a University of Massachusetts women endured racist abuse and harass- employ his favored equivocating phrases Amherst poll on the anniversary of the Skeptical Inquirer | September/October 2022 5 January 6 attacks found that 71 percent Great Expectations: House Hearing on UAP Excites of Republicans believe Trump’s claim Fans, Offers Little Else that he won the 2020 election. Representative Adam Schiff asked, M W “If you can convince Americans they cannot trust their own elections, that any time they lose is somehow illegit- imate, then what is left but violence to May 17, 2022, The House Intelligence about process, defining UAP as “air- determine who should govern?” Repre- Subcommittee on Counterterrorism borne objects that, when encountered, sentative Liz Cheney, vice chairwoman and Counterintelligence held a much cannot be immediately identified.” He of the committee, added: heralded hearing on unidentified aerial described, in general terms, how the new phenomena (or UAP, the new term for office would “facilitate the identification Donald Trump did not care about the threats of violence. He did not UFOs). Expectations were high, in no of previously unknown or unidentified condemn them. He made no effort small part due to the statements of the airborne objects in a methodical, logical to stop them. He went forward with committee members. and standardized manner.” his fake allegations anyway. … We Adam Schiff, the chairman of the Scott Bray, the deputy director of cannot let America become a nation House Intelligence Committee, de- naval intelligence, spoke next. He nar- of conspiracy theories and thug vio- lence. scribed it as the public’s chance to “hear rowed down the scope of the discussion from experts on one of the greatest to a Naval perspective, describing an In testimony, White House lawyer mysteries of our time.” He also said, increase in the number of unidentified Eric Herschmann described a con- “The American people deserve full objects or aircraft in military training tentious—described by one witness as transparency.” André Carson, who led areas. He then explained, in a nutshell, “unhinged”—Oval Office meeting in the proceedings, stated ahead of time what the likely reasons for this increase which former Trump lawyer Sidney that “We can’t rule out something that were: Powell promoted conspiracy theories is otherworldly.” In his introductory re- We attribute this increase in report- about a Venezuelan plot to rig the vot- marks at the hearing, he said, “UAPs are ing to a number of factors including: ing machines. Powell described Trump unexplained, it’s true, but they are real, our work to destigmatize reporting, as “very interested in hearing” her con- and many threats they pose need to be an increase in the number of new spiracies despite an incredulous and systems such as quadcopters and mitigated.” “flabbergasted” Herschmann. He asked unmanned aerial systems [drones] The UFO community was agog. It that are in our airspace, identifica- Powell to explain the wild theories was the first congressional hearing on tion of what we can classify as clut- she advocated to the president of the UFOs in fifty years! Full transparency ter, mylar balloons, and other types United States. was promised about one of the greatest of air trash and improvements in the When Herschmann and others capabilities of our various sensors to mysteries of our time! It was going to pointed out to Powell that her dozens detect things in our airspace. be epic. of lawsuits challenging the election Veteran UFO fans tried to temper Bray talked a little about how they results had been laughed out of courts, the excitement, having been burned were putting together a team of diverse she claimed that, too, was part of the before with promises of perpetually experts to look into this problem, a de- conspiracy and that “the judges are cor- imminent “disclosure.” But the people scription that reminded me very much rupt.” At this, Herschmann testified he following the #ufotwitter hashtag were of the team of experts assembled by the pushed back again: “I’m like, everyone? largely celebratory that hearings were Chilean Air Force to investigate UFOs. Every single case that you’ve done in happening at all and giddy with excite- That team spent two years trying to the country that you guys lost? Every ment about what might be revealed. figure out one UFO before failing ut- one of them is corrupt? Even the ones So, what happened? terly, giving up, and releasing the video we appointed?” In defending Powell Two witnesses spoke, both seasoned as a “genuine” UFO. People online (in- from a defamation lawsuit from elec- veterans of the intelligence community. cluding me) then solved the case in a tion machine manufacturer Dominion First up was Ronald Moultrie, the un- few days (see https://skepticalinquirer. Voting Systems, her lawyers claimed dersecretary of defense for intelligence org/newsletter/curated-crowdsourc- that “no reasonable person” would think and security, who is responsible for the ing-in-ufo-investigations/). that her election conspiracy theories tortuously acronymed AOIMSG (Air- were truthful or factual. • borne Object Identification and Man- The ‘Fly-By’ Video agement Synchronization Group)—a Benjamin Radford is the deputy editor of new office set up to investigate UAP. Bray then reinforced the Chilean sim- the Skeptical Inquirer. Moultrie opened with a discussion ilarity with two examples. He first 6 Volume 46 Issue 5 | Skeptical Inquirer [ NEWS AND COMMENT showed a video titled “FlyBy,” shot Source: UAPTF from the cockpit of a Navy F/A-18. It’s eight seconds long. In the last second, something is briefly visible flying past the window. They then spent a rather embarrassing five minutes attempting to freeze frame the video on the actual UFO. Bray said of this video: “There it was. In many cases, that’s all that a report may include and in many other cases, we have far less than this. … This often limited amount of high quality data and reporting hampers our ability to draw firm conclusions about the nature or intent of UAP.” It was difficult to make out anything in the video shown to the committee, but they later released a higher resolu- tion version. This showed that it was a gray object with a bright highlight— probably a reflection of the sun. It was also desperately out-of-focus, which caused the highlight to expand into a hexagonal shape—an optical effect known as “bokeh,” where the shape of out-of-focus spots of light take on the shape of the camera aperture. Bokeh A still from the "Fly-By" video showed during the House hearing on UAP is a common source of accidental “orb” UFO photos. In this case, the shape of While a mylar balloon is the most likely “Green Triangle.” This had been leaked the out-of-focus highlight was consis- answer, the cautious military mind does from the UAP task force to UFO pop- tent with being recorded on an iPhone. not want to pick a definitive answer ularizing filmmaker Jeremy Corbell Bray alluded to the highlight in de- based on incomplete information or (who was rather inexplicably men- scribing the object as being “reflective.” what might be seen as speculation. tioned by Carson in his opening state- He also discussed the motion of the However, this should not stop them ment). Corbell had touted the video as object: from producing some kind of confi- the “best UFO military-filmed footage dence assessment or at least some very the world has ever seen.” When you are moving very fast … it gives a lot of different impressions basic analysis. I like to make simple lists Unfortunately, people on the inter- about how quickly something is or of possibilities when a definitive answer net and I had other ideas. Minutes after isn’t moving. Sometimes things that is not available. By refusing to say any- the video was leaked, I tweeted that the happen very quickly, something may thing at all, they open the door to wild triangle shape was likely a camera ar- be moving very slow, that aircraft speculation. Is it a balloon or an alien tifact. Over the next few days, it was is moving quite fast, how fast that object is moving that goes by, is spaceship? shown conclusively (to most people) probably very slow. One (admittedly speculative) reason that what was seen was not a pyramid they might not want to say that it is but rather some out-of-focus lights So, we have an out-of-focus reflective a mylar balloon is national security. If from a plane or drone. object just floating along in the air. The mylar balloons are showing up on new I’d gotten a lot of pushback from simplest explanation by far is something radar systems as unknown targets, then half the UFO community on this, so Bray singled out in his introduction: a information about that might be some- I was delighted when Bray confirmed mylar balloon. thing useable by an adversary to create my hypothesis, saying “the triangular Why would they not mention it? cheap airspace decoys. appearance is a result of light passing It’s surely the leading hypothesis. The through the night vision goggles, and problem here is that the video is so bad, Green Triangles then being recorded by an SLR [sin- so low-information, that it’s difficult to gle-lens reflex] camera.” Bray might say anything about it with confidence. The second video was dubbed the have even been referencing the work Skeptical Inquirer | September/October 2022 7 ing came from representative Mike saw this as a vindication of their belief Gallagher, the first of which was: in its authenticity. It’s also been reported that there What Does This Amount To? have been UAP observed and inter- acting with and flying over sensitive Those were the highlights, but there was military facilities, particularly not some more talk about process and a few just ranges, but some facilities hous- other details. Other bits of mythology, ing our strategic nuclear forces. One such as UFO wreckage retrieval, were such incident allegedly occurred at Malmstrom Air Force Base in which briefly raised and dismissed or denied. 10 of our nuclear ICBMs were ren- Several questions regarding sensors dered inoperable. At the same time, were deferred to the closed portion of a glowing red orb was observed over- the hearing where people hoped the real head. I’m not commenting on the meat would emerge. But in comments accuracy of this. I’m simply asking you whether you’re aware of it and from committee members afterward, whether you have any comments on nobody indicated the closed portion the accuracy of that report. contained a smoking alien ray gun. They Scott Bray responded that he had were focused more on potential security heard “stories” but not official data. implications. Gallagher seemed surprised at this. In So, the much anticipated House later discussion in the UFO commu- Intelligence Subcommittee on Coun- nity, there was speculation that Bray terterrorism and Counterintelligence was lying because, in the minds of part hearing amounted to two terrible videos of the UFO community, the idea that with poor analysis, an understandable UFOs were messing with our nukes had lack of knowledge about UFO mythol- become something of an accepted fact. ogy, and discussion about getting better What Gallagher neglected to men- at identifying things in the air. It was Source: US Navy tion was that the Malmstrom UFO in- both disappointing and validating—but The “Green Triangle” video was the result of light passing cident happened fifty-five years ago, on in different directions depending on through the triangular aperture of night-vision goggles. March 24, 1967. Some mysterious tech- your point of view. of my fellow investigators when he said nical glitches occurred a week before the The military seems to be proceeding “the UAV [unmanned aerial vehicle] “glowing red orb,” but the army investi- in a sensible, if slow and secretive, direc- task force is aware of studies that have gated at the time and found no connec- tion. UAP, as they explicitly said, repre- [replicated the effect].” tion to any UFO sighting. The story has sent a variety of things. Probably some So how long did it take the UAP remained in UFO culture largely due to of them are mylar balloons that embar- task force to figure it out? Bray went on the account and efforts of one eyewit- rassingly spoof the latest radar in our to explain that the original video—the ness, Robert Salas. Skeptical investiga- fighters. Some might be drones, maybe one that we solved in days—took “sev- tors suggest the red “UFO” was prob- even drones from foreign adversaries. eral years” to resolve. Again, this tallied ably Mars and over the decades have Some they can’t explain simply due to with the Chilean UFO case. A sup- collated numerous issues with Salas’s lack of data. They don’t seem to think posed highly skilled multidisciplinary account (see https://www.metabunk. aliens are anything more than an amus- task force of experts, liaising with the org/threads/salas-malmstrom.3284/). ing hypothetical—but that doesn’t stop vast resources of multiple Pentagon de- Gallagher then went on to ask about the fans from asking about them. • partments, took years to do what a few the “Admiral Wilson memo”—an ac- nerds on the internet did in days. But count of a supposed interview by fringe at least they got the right answer this scientist Eric Davis with Vice Admiral Mick West is a science writer, skepti- time—perhaps with our help. Thomas Wilson, in which they dis- cal investigator, and retired video game cussed secret government programs in- programmer. He created the websites Introducing Mythology volving crashed flying saucers and alien Contrail Science and Metabunk, and he bodies. Again, Bray was unaware of this investigates and debunks pseudoscien- The videos were the highlight for me, piece of (more recent) UFO mythology. tific claims and conspiracy theories, such because they represented relatively cur- (Wilson has denied the meeting even as chemtrails and UFOs. He is author of rent evidence of an ongoing situation. happened.) Gallagher asked that it be Escaping the Rabbit Hole: How to Debunk But for other UFO aficionados, the entered into the congressional record, Conspiracy Theories Using Facts, Logic, more interesting lines of question- much to the delight of UFO fans who and Respect. He is a CSI fellow. 8 Volume 46 Issue 5 | Skeptical Inquirer [ NEWS AND COMMENT Rumors on WhatsApp Lead to Mob Killings in Mexico B R On Friday, June 10, 2022, thirty-one- ics through to rescue him. Seven men and eventually burned them alive with year-old Daniel Picazo, a lawyer and were later arrested in connection with gasoline outside a local police station. political consultant from Mexico Picazo’s lynching; it’s not clear that any Such vigilante justice is of course City, was visiting his grandfather in children in the small community were not unique to Mexico. In October of the rural town of Las Colonias de ever even missing. the same year, three people in Ecuador Hidalgo, about three hours northeast Mob justice is not uncommon in were killed by a mob after a message cir- of the capital. Picazo, described by many parts of Mexico, especially in rural culated on WhatsApp falsely accusing his father as “intelligent and studious,” areas subject to sporadic, lax, and often them of being child kidnappers, and a had recently graduated with a master’s corrupt police services. In 2019, seven man in Bogota, Colombia, was killed degree and was visiting the town for men were beaten and burned alive by a by a mob that suspected him of abduct- a vacation. Shortly before midnight, mob in the same region. The year be- ing children. In 2018, nearly two dozen smartphones around the town—and fore, on August 29, 2018, Ricardo Flores people were killed in separate incidents in the nearby indigenous community and his uncle Alberto Flores Morales across a dozen Indian states when mobs of Papatlazolco—began buzzing with visited San Vicente Boqueron—like set upon suspected child abductors urgent WhatsApp group chat messages Papatlazolco, in the Mexican state of they’d been warned about in messages about Picazo. Puebla—from their nearby hometown on social media; see my article “Social A local had noticed Picazo’s out of in their SUV to buy construction ma- Media–Fueled Child Abduction Ru- state license plates and, for some reason, terials. They parked near a school and mors Lead to Killings” in the January/ suspected he was there for sinister pur- went into a local bar, arriving just as in- February 2019 SI. According to a 2019 poses. The anonymous, viral warnings ternet rumors on WhatsApp called for report titled WhatsApp Vigilantes pub- claimed that Picazo had kidnapped an people to be vigilant for stranger child lished by the London School of Eco- adolescent, intending to kill the child kidnappers in the neighborhood driving nomics and Political Science, in India and harvest its organs. As the messages an SUV. Following a familiar pattern, alone “rumors and subsequent allega- spread from phone to phone and person villagers noticed the pair was not local tions of child abduction have resulted to person throughout the night, a mob and accused them of looking for chil- in over forty deaths with a far greater of about 200 people gathered. They dren to abduct. Their pleas of innocence number injured and traumatized.” tracked Picazo down and demanded jus- were ignored as a mob dragged the men The WhatsApp platform, owned by tice. Police tried to intervene and secure into the road, tied them up, beat them, Facebook (now Meta Platforms), has Picazo’s safety by putting him in a pa- trol car away from the mob, but that just confirmed for many that he was being arrested—presumably for the child ab- duction or killing they’d seen described in the warning messages flooding their phones. The villagers overwhelmed the police, pulled Picazo from the car, and dragged him to a nearby field. There they tied his hands and beat him with fists and boards. Picazo begged the mob to take out his wallet and confirm his identity—he had official identification as a member of the Mexican government’s Chamber of Deputies—but they instead doused him with gasoline and set him on fire. He survived the beating and burning but succumbed to his injuries, because Part of a rumor warning shared on WhatsApp, reading "I beg you to be very careful. Three days ago a child was kidnapped in Ocotzingo municipality." the crowd refused to let police and med- Skeptical Inquirer | September/October 2022 9 over two billion users around the world Belgian Skeptics Group Wins Defamation Lawsuit and allows information to be shared in- stantly to friends or groups. Unlike open K F social media platforms such as Facebook and Twitter, the app shares private chats; identifying who first shared the infor- mation or started a rumor is difficult or impossible because of the app’s end- to-end encryption. Even WhatsApp employees cannot open or read a mes- sage unless it’s specifically flagged for review by a user. The platform has been implicated in spreading a wide range of misinformation around the world, ranging from anti-vaccine messages to politically motivated hoaxes. But the child abduction rumors are among the most potentially deadly. Despite per- functory information campaigns from WhatsApp chiding its users to beware fake news and misinformation, the ru- mors continue. Child abduction rumors are part of Website for Carl Van de Velde’s Training Institute, which sued Belgian skeptics and lost many conspiracy theories, including In a result that consumed considerable [$52,000].” De Belder says about half of the anti-Semitic Blood Libel myth, time and resources, the Belgian skep- that was contributed by members and the Satanic Panic, QAnon, Wayfair ru- tics group SKEPP has finally won in supporters in Belgium and the Nether- mors, and the infamous Comet Pong a defamation lawsuit against it by a lands. The other half came from skep- “Pizzagate” incident in 2016 (for more Belgian multimillionaire who runs the tics and organizations in Germany, Aus- on organ theft rumors, including the Carl Van de Velde Training Institute tralia (including “the generous Mr. Dick harm they cause, see my article “Bitter (CVDVTI), which SKEPP has said Smith”), Canada, the United States, Harvest: The Organ-Snatching Urban uses dubious theories in marketing its New Zealand, and elsewhere. Legends” in the May/June 1999 SI). In human resource classes. “Thank you so much for your sup- “It has taken some time, but the port,” De Belder said. “If ever one of the United States, false rumors of rov- Appeals Court in Belgium judged that your organizations gets in trouble, we ing bands of abductors using plastic zip free speech and well-founded criticism will stand by you.” ties to identify their victims circulated are more important than the perceived The Belgian authors, Patrick Ver- on social media since around 2018 and wrongs of the commercial organization meren and Bart Van de Venare, had recently surged in popularity. In many being criticized,” said Paul De Belder, written an article criticizing the Carl cases, American minorities (especially president of SKEPP, in announcing the Van de Velde Training Institute’s use of African Americans and Muslims) have court decision on March 7, 2022. “The theories such as NLP (neurolinguistic been falsely accused of abductions based claim of our adversaries was soundly re- programming) and the characterization on social media rumors, making it a so- jected by the court.” of people based on their skull (phrenol- cial justice issue as well. De Belder said the plaintiff has been ogy) and physiognomy (interpretation Most people who share viral mes- ordered to pay €8,400 ($9,500 USD) of outward appearances, in this case face sages warning of danger (and especially compensation to SKEPP for its legal and hair). They referred to the content child abductions) are doing so with costs—a standard amount in court cases as “pseudoscientific” and “marketing good intentions, sincerely thinking that but low compared to its actual costs: tricks.” they may save someone’s life merely by “Our legal costs amount over 67,000 Carl Van de Velde, who heads the liking and sharing. Even if they don’t euro [$75,000] … and we expect one company, sued for defamation, asking fully believe the story, they often adopt more invoice from our lawyers.” for damages of €400,000 ($473,000), a “better safe than sorry” approach, as- “On the positive side, we have re- even though his company showed a suming—wrongly—that no harm could ceived a lot of help through our fund- profit of 2.4 million euros—a million come of it. • raiser, which brought in about €46,000 more than the year before. 10 Volume 46 Issue 5 | Skeptical Inquirer