Cities provide transformational opportunity to Reduce Risk Accumulation RF-IIHS Paper on Indian Urban Risk and Resilience Cities provide transformational opportunity to reduce risk accumulation RF-IIHS Paper on Indian Urban Risk and Resilience Writing Team Garima Jain Rohit Jigyasu Sumetee Pahwa Gajjar Teja Malladi Reviewers Aromar Revi Amir Bazaz Anup Karanth Somnath Sen RISK ACCUMULATION RF-IIHS Paper on Indian Urban Risk and Resilience Table of Contents Abstract ............................................................................................................................................ 3 Foreward ........................................................................................................................................... 4 Current Debates on Risk: Global and Indian ................................................................................... 4 PART A: What is risk? ......................................................................................................................... 8 Components of risk........................................................................................................................ 8 Climate induced risk ...................................................................................................................... 9 Extensive and intensive risks........................................................................................................ 11 Impacts of risks ............................................................................................................................ 12 Part B: What is the current status of risk and risk management in India? ......................................... 12 India’s Risk Profile........................................................................................................................ 12 Urban risk: urban and rural differentiators .................................................................................. 15 Concentration of urban risk in India ............................................................................................. 18 Current Institutional, financial and techno-legal frameworks ....................................................... 25 Exiting programmes and initiatives .............................................................................................. 31 Part C: Where are the Gaps? ........................................................................................................... 34 Part D: What are the new imaginations for approaches and frameworks? ....................................... 35 Building Urban Resilience with an Integrated Risk Reduction Approach ....................................... 35 Capabilities approach .................................................................................................................. 37 Part E: What are the ways going forward? ....................................................................................... 38 APPENDICES .................................................................................................................................... 42 Appendix 1: Definitions................................................................................................................ 42 Appendix 2: Methodology for modelling urban risk concentration in India................................... 43 Appendix 3: Sources of data ........................................................................................................ 45 Appendix 4: Hazard Risk Maps ..................................................................................................... 46 Appendix 5: Urban Vulnerability and Exposure Maps ................................................................... 50 Appendix 6: Urban Capacities Maps ............................................................................................. 55 Appendix 7: Urban Risk Indicators ............................................................................................... 60 Appendix 8: State-wise Population Exposure to Hazards .............................................................. 68 REFERENCES .................................................................................................................................... 74 RISK ACCUMULATION RF-IIHS Paper on Indian Urban Risk and Resilience Abstract It was only following the 1999 super cyclone in Orissa and the 2001 Gujarat earthquake, with the Hyogo Framework for Action adopted in 2005 in the backdrop, that India woke up to a national policy and act on disaster management. But despite the global move from hazard centric approach to a more holistic risk approach, programmes, policies and funding in India is still primarily emergency response and rehabilitation centric. It is also due to this approach and priority, disaster risk is perceived to be higher in areas that are more exposed to extreme hazards – namely the Himalyan region, the Indo-gangetic plains and the coastal areas, and not so much where vulnerabilities are inherent or capacities to respond low. This paper is an attempt to analyse the current status of risk in India – how is risk defined, where is it concentrated and what are the current institutional and policy gaps – which if addressed holistically, can build a more resilient society. The primary objective is to identify policy interventions at various levels to enable urban resilience. Another motivation behind this research is to support the Rockefeller Foundation and ACCCRN’s current work in India on resilience, and provide an overview of the status of risk in India. The paper intends to move the current debates and policy frames from risk reduction, to a much larger goal of enhancing lives by building capabilities. It is argued that the capabilities approach is best thought of not as offering a detailed road map for policy, but as providing a critically different conceptualization of the purpose and principles of public policy (Orton, 2011). The paper seeks to underpin the ideological narrative in this idea, from which policy development can flow. The policy and programmatic focus needs to move from the idea of disasters to the concept of risks which are a composite of hazards (including climatic), vulnerabilities, exposure and capacities. Risks may accumulate over time or can be due to high intensity events. This paper also analyses where risk is accumulated in India, and the ways forward for reducing this risk It builds on the fundamental risk equations (Peduzzi, Dao, Herold, & Mouton, 2009; Wisner, Blaikie, Cannon, & Davis, 2003) with an additional attribution to capabilities inherent to cities and their institutions. It uses disaggregated micro-level geographical data collected by various agencies such as ISRO-Bhuvan and Census at the national level, and global sources such as UNISDR’s GAR 2013 (DesInventar, etc.) to arrive at an understanding of geographical concentration of risk in India. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are used further to go beyond its city administrative boundaries, helping to identify urban agglomerations exposed to such risks. This paper systematically arrives at a priority set of locations, where risk can be addressed by either providing better early warning systems and planning, vulnerability reduction, exposure management or by building capacities. It further assesses the status of current institutional and planning systems adopted by them.i In short, the paper attempts to: establish that risk is a composite of external and internal factors – incl. climate risks, natural hazards, as well as those that are human induced; establish that cities concentrate this risk in various forms and hold the potential for risk reduction; identify where in India is risk concentrated; assess the current institutional systems, policies and frameworks for risk reduction and resilience building; and, identify ways forward for various stakeholders towards a more resilient society primarily with two loci: (i) directing the policy discourse of reduction to the capabilities approach and, (ii) building a more integrated risk management system for building overall resilience. RISK ACCUMULATION 3 RF-IIHS Paper on Indian Urban Risk and Resilience Foreward India is one of the more vulnerable and high-risk countries in the world (IFRC, 2005). Disaster loss is rising every year with grave consequences for the survival, dignity and livelihood of individuals, particularly the poor, and poses a severe setback to the hard-won development gains (HyogoFramework, 2005). Growing concentrations of people, built and economic assets in cities is exponentially increasing their propensity to disaster risk. While disasters are known to compound vulnerabilities, with increasing densities in cities and access to services and resources becoming more contested, this in turn is further accentuating people’s vulnerabilities to disasters, making this a vicious cycle. Despite sufficient evidence presented by the International Panel on Climate Change (Aromar Revi et al., 2014) that there exists a strong correlation between changing climate and increasing frequencies and intensities of hazards, the level of preparedness for such events, particularly in developing countries like India, is still very low. With limited resources available to direct towards planning and resilience building, developing economies like India end up prioritising rehabilitation and rescue in the face of an event. Lack of data, access to technology and lack of technical and institutional capacities exacerbates this situation further. These changes and poor management makes them the locus of large and small scale disasters. By 2011, there were 53 cities in India with population greater than 1 million. Many of these urban centres are exposed to multiple hazards, especially earthquake, cyclone, storm surge, drought, floods and fires. The impact is often multiplied due to multiple hazards occurring together and further aggravated by the growing socio-economic and climatic vulnerabilities. Additionally, the low perception of risk leads to even greater destruction due to lack of risk reduction practices. Public expenditure for relief on account of natural disasters can be taxing on the budgeted social sector expenses in successive years, which makes preparedness and mitigation pertinent. While cities are collectors of risk, they also provide an immense opportunity to reduce this risk, if managed well in time. The number of cities where people and assets are concentrated is still very small - the number of rural settlements (0.64 million) exceeds that of urban areas (0.008 million) by nearly two orders of magnitude (Census, 2011). More risk can be mitigated by directing the research and other resources to the most vulnerable urban centres. Particularly interesting locations could be the second tier cities - which are in the process of developing and growing – planning ahead would not just safeguard their future, but it could actually provide for more enhanced lives for its forthcoming citizens. Current Debates on Risk: Global and Indian Theoretical perspectives on risks have undergone a shift over last couple of decades. During early part of 20th century, risks [referred to as disasters then] were attributed to natural forces, representing them as a departure from a state of normalcy to which a society returned to on recovery. This denied the wider historical and social dimensions of hazard and focused attention largely on technocratic solutions aimed at resisting these natural forces (Bankoff, 2001). Moreover, the measures relied on top-down command and control model. However this approach failed and vulnerability to disasters was seen to increase exponentially in spite of heavy investments in technology-centred measures. RISK ACCUMULATION 4 RF-IIHS Paper on Indian Urban Risk and Resilience Another implication of this approach was predominant focus on providing post disaster relief both in cash and kind, which resulted in instances of increased dependencies of the victims who were merely provided with readymade solutions. Reconstruction was mainly aimed at provision of shelters and infrastructure through large scale contractor driven reconstruction projects. However many of these reconstructed settlements and disaster resistant houses were found to be unsustainable and thus reinforced or sometimes even increased disaster vulnerability (Jigyasu, 2002). Also this approach did not adequately address the needs of developing countries that have limited resources and capacity to undertake capital intensive measures. However over last few decades there has been a paradigm shift in this conceptual understanding of disasters that resulted from ineffectiveness of techno-centric approaches. In the eighties and nineties of the last century, disaster research took on a new meaning in the field of social sciences with research on the societal response to various disasters. Accordingly, disaster vulnerability extended beyond the mere probability that someone is killed, injured, or suffers loss. It was also seen to embrace the relative ease or difficulty with which an individual, family group or social group recovers following a disaster (Wisner et al., 2003). The new approach to disaster got rid of the overwhelming notion of agent such as earthquake. Starting from an analysis of disaster seen as a process tightly tied to social vulnerability, the new paradigm considers the causes of disaster are to be explained on structural as well as contextual grounds. (Hewitt, 1997) The new paradigm is increasingly “vulnerability centred” as risks are understood as phenomenon linked to physical, social, economic and institutional vulnerability. Besides this approach also tends to look at specific vulnerabilities of various groups of people such as women, children, elderly, disabled, ethnic/racial or religious minorities, economically poor etc. (Enarson & Morrow, 1998; Hewitt, 1997; Wisner et al., 2003). Vulnerability is subsequently analyzed by identifying “underlying factors” and “root causes” embedded in everyday life, which give rise to dynamic pressures affecting particular groups, leading to specifically “unsafe conditions”. (Wisner et al., 2003) A consequence of this shift has been much closer linkage between disaster, risk and development. Disasters impede development but ill-conceived development may cause disaster. Rapid and unplanned urbanization in the developing world is a consequence of this so called development. The latter relationship is also particularly relevant when it comes to the vulnerability of urban and rural poor in the developing world who have little access to the resources, power and choice mechanisms needed to radically change their life circumstances. The mismatch between assets stock and consumption stock contribute towards aggravating vulnerability of those who are at the bottom end of the pyramid. There has also been an increasing focus on capacity to reduce disaster risks, face them (resilience) and cope with their consequences. In fact both vulnerability and capacity are considered together as reduction in one can lead to increase in the other. Mary Anderson and Peter J. Woodrow (1989) have categorized these as physical/material, social/organizational and motivational/attitudinal (Anderson & Woodrow, 1989). RISK ACCUMULATION 5 RF-IIHS Paper on Indian Urban Risk and Resilience The employment of the concept of social vulnerability as a tool in and by the community also involves a thorough analysis with and by the residents of their own resources and capabilities. Therefore the new approach lays emphasis on community driven approaches for disaster risk management and engagement of various stakeholders. Vulnerability centred impact approach thus seeks to consider physical, social, psychosocial, economic and political causes as well as impacts of disasters. Another implication of the changing paradigm is shift to a multi-hazard approach that seeks to consider all hazards that contribute towards risk in a given area. Rather than focusing on implications of a single hazard, the new paradigm considers key questions for complex disaster scenarios; (1) what might possibly happen? (2) how likely it is? (3) what damage, injury and loss may result? (4) what will be the impact of the event? And (5) what can be done about it? (Bhandari, 2006). Apart from these intensive hazards, there are additional implications of risks that accumulate over time such as health risks, exposure to bio hazards, etc. which may precede or succeed an intensive hazard, intensifying the risk impacts even further. The implication of these conceptual shifts is being seen on the practice of disaster risk management, which has graduated from an earlier “relief” mode to “preparedness” for all phases of disaster, namely prevention, response and recovery. Box 1 : Case for Preparedness – Orissa There are examples that illustrate how better planning and preparation has reduced the impacts of hazards. For instance in Orissa, about 10,000 lost their lives post the 1999 super cyclone, and 154 in the very severe cyclone that just preceded that a few days before, requisite steps were taken at the state, city and village levels and the lives lost came down to as much as 21 people during the 2014 very sever cyclone. RISK ACCUMULATION 6 RF-IIHS Paper on Indian Urban Risk and Resilience Furthermore, the critical link between disaster risk reduction and factors of urban sustainability are more likely to be addressed by local rather than central authority. Reaching out to local governments to help them build capacity, acquire knowledge and resources and provide them with decision-making authority is essential for loss reduction in hazardous events and building resilience in urban settlements (Bendimerad, 2006). United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk (UNISDR) was adopted by United Nations Member States in 2000, aiming to guide and coordinate the efforts of a wide range of partners to achieve substantive reduction in disaster losses and build resilient nations and communities as an essential condition for sustainable development. The strategy played an important role in bringing out this conceptual shift from response to risk reduction. The Hyogo Framework for Action adopted at the World Conference on Disaster Reduction in 2005 stated one of its strategic goals as the more effective integration of disaster risk considerations into sustainable development policies, planning and programming at all levels, with a special emphasis on disaster prevention, mitigation, preparedness, and vulnerability reduction. The follow up on this framework after 10 years is at Sendai in 2015 which will aim at furthering the work for global risk reduction. In India, though most of the theoretical debates on disasters are rooted either within engineering field (earlier paradigm) or in geography and development theory (new paradigm). That is why the new paradigm has increasing focused on the analysis of socio-economic vulnerability conditions. Links with urban planning, design and management have not been strongly articulated in theoretical discussions on disasters. That is one of the reasons that disaster risk management has had predominant focus on rural areas while urban risk reduction initiatives leave much to be desired especially in the light of urbanization process that characterizes Indian settlements. Theoretical reflections on disasters have largely focused on short term response and recovery following disaster. Longer perspectives on disasters would throw important light on differential impact on different sections of people. Longitudinal studies would also bring about important insights on links with slow and cumulative risks due to local development context as well as changes in the frequency and intensity of disasters that are partly explained by the growing phenomenon of climate change. It is important to mention here that although paradigmatic shifts on disasters have taken place at theoretical level, these have not really translated into tangible results for disaster resilient settlements and communities. Rather the frequency and intensity of disasters is increasing exponentially, and the impacts are especially higher in developing countries ii. RISK ACCUMULATION 7 RF-IIHS Paper on Indian Urban Risk and Resilience PART A: What is risk? Components of risk Historically, risk was primarily associated with an external force or agent. But it is now well accepted that risk is a composite of external as well as intrinsic characteristics of elements that affect their propensity to riskiii. It can arise out of natural (tectonic or climatic) as well as man- made hazards (unsustainable resource management, unsafe water supply and sanitation practices, etc.) These are exacerbated by the elements’ physical location and specific characteristics making them more vulnerable to certain external forces. Often their ability to respond to these hazardous events puts them in better or worse situations as compared to some others, and these capacities need to be explored and improved in order to reduce overall impacts of risk. These risks vary over time – both in impact and their accumulation, and vary significantly by geographical location of the elements. Figure 1 : Risk and its multiple dimensions Sources: Adapted from (Peduzzi et al., 2009; Wisner et al., 2003) Risk is a composite of external factors as well as intrinsic characteristics that make a system and people vulnerable to these external agents. The underlying reasons for these vulnerabilities may arise out of socio-economic process, which may ultimately be quite remote from the hazard event itself. But it is due to these vulnerabilities, that the impacts felt by some people may be more severe than others. Often, there are deeper socio-political reasons that certain people are forced to live in areas which makes them more exposed to certain hazards, and thereby at greater risks. This lack of choice exacerbates their vulnerabilities, exposure and often also the abilities to respond, and in the face of an event leaves them even more vulnerable than before. It is this that Wisner called the cause and effect model of vulnerability (Wisner et al., 2003). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines risk as the potential for consequences where something of human value (including humans themselves) is at stake and where the outcome is uncertain. Risk is often represented as probability of occurrence of hazardous events or trends multiplied by the consequences if these events occur: Risk = (Probability of Events or Trends) X Consequences RISK ACCUMULATION 8 RF-IIHS Paper on Indian Urban Risk and Resilience Climate induced risk Climate change and variability are now known to have primary and secondary order impacts on cities and their populations. The risk of severe loss at multiple scales due to climate change- related hazards such as extreme events is particularly high in large urban areas. The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report states with very high confidence, based on robust evidence that urban climate change-related risks are increasing (including rising sea levels and storm surges, heat stress, extreme precipitation, inland and coastal flooding, landslides, drought, increased aridity, water scarcity, and air pollution) with widespread negative impacts on people’s health, livelihoods and economic assets. All risks are exacerbated for vulnerable populations who live in informal settlements or in hazardous areas and lack access to basic infrastructure and service provision (A. Revi et al., 2014). For most hazards in urban areas associated with climate change, risk levels increase from the present (with current levels of adaptation) to the near term. High adaptation can reduce these risk levels significantly. However, for the longer term, especially under a global mean temperature increase of 4°C, adaptation is less effective (A. Revi et al., 2014). Observed and projected changes in annual average surface temperature. This figure informs understanding of climate-related risks in the WGII AR5. It illustrates temperature change observed to date and projected warming under continued high emissions and under ambitious mitigation. (IPCC, 2014b) The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report states with medium confidence that a wide range of infrastructure systems (water and energy supply, sanitation and drainage, transport and telecommunication), services (including health care and emergency services), the built environment, and ecosystem services are exposed to climate change-related risks (A. Revi et al., 2014). However, as per the core concept of the WGII AR5, risk of climate-related impacts results from the interaction of climate-related hazards with the vulnerability and exposure of human RISK ACCUMULATION 9 RF-IIHS Paper on Indian Urban Risk and Resilience