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For more information visit www.intechopen.com Chapter 8 Revisiting Indigenous Biotic and Abiotic Weather Forecasting for Possible Integration with Scientific Weather Prediction: A Case from the Borana People of South Ethiopia Desalegn Yayeh Ayal Additional information is available at the end of the chapter http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.69887 Abstract This study assesses how Borana herders make weather forecast using abiotic and biotic indicators. Survey questionnaire, observations, focus group discussions, and key infor- mant interview were employed to obtain data. Field data were analyzed and interpreted using appropriate analytical tools and procedures. The result revealed that the Borana herders have time-tested weather forecasting experience of using astrological, intesti- nal, plant, and animal body language indicators. Astrological and intestinal readings that need special training and local expertise are known as Urgii Elaltus and Uchuu, respectively. Forecast information is disseminated using the Borana sociocultural institu- tions. Based on the disseminated forecast information, the Borana herders take measures such as strengthening enclosure, storing hay, migrating with animals, destocking, and changing schedules of social and cultural festivities such as wedding. The precision and credibility of traditional weather forecast steadily declined and led to repeated faulty predictions. Poor documentation and knowledge transfer system, influence of religion and modern education, premature death of forecast experts, and expansion of alcoholism were identified as causes undermining the vitality of Borana indigenous weather fore- cast. It is high time that the tenets of indigenous weather forecasting be assessed scientifi- cally and be integrated into the modern science of weather forecasting before they vanish. Keywords: weather forecasting, indigenous knowledge, abiotic, biotic © 2017 The Author(s). Licensee InTech. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. 136 Indigenous People 1. Introduction Indigenous weather forecasting system is dynamic and is built on observation and long years of experience [1]. The importance of indigenous knowledge transcends the culture from which it is born and offer exciting insights to scientists and others who seek to assist the devel- opment of local people [2]. Agricultural decisions, such as the timing of planting, indigenous ranch management, herd composition, and number, are highly interlinked with anticipated weather phenomenon [3, 4]. Hence, the capacity of people to be drought resistant is highly related to the precision and credibility of their indigenous weather forecasting systems [5–8]. Different cultures make use of biotic and/or abiotic indicators to forecast about the future weather conditions. For example, atmospheric conditions and astronomic, plant, human, and animal indicators are used in Zimbabwe for weather forecasting [9, 10]. Besides, traditionally, the behavioral changes of some animals and birds, change of wind directions, and phonologi- cal changes in plant species are used to make weather forecast in Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Kenya [1, 3, 11, 12]. Astrology is also cited in Kenya. The ritual observation of the Pleiades alignment is used for weather forecast in Peru and Bolivia [13]. Cultural and ritual specialists in Burkina Faso observe plant and animal behaviors for the same purpose [14]. In Uganda indigenous weather forecasting is made based on cloud color, features of vegetation, the cycle and shape of the moon, and seasonal calendar [15], while in Swaziland, reading animal behavior and environmental clues are the sources of weather forecasting indicators. In western Ethiopia indigenous experts have a sophisticated indigenous knowledge of weather forecasting by way of reading and interpreting astrological phenomena [16]. The list goes on and is too much to mention all, and much commonality is shared in different cultures. History shows that over the last 400 years, the Peruvian and Bolivian Andes people were able to forecast El Nino years based on indigenous weather forecasting. However, studies show that in recent years the vitality of indigenous weather forecasting mechanisms is declining. Among many factors the disappearance of biotic indicators and the influence of religion and modern education [10, 17], poor documentation and knowledge transfer mechanism [9, 18], generation gap, poor finance, and passing away of skilled persons [15] are identified as causes for the gradual weakening of the precision and acceptance of indigenous knowledge of weather forecasting. In addition to examining how the reality of the study area feeds into the short survey made above, this study extends the discussion to forecast dissemination systems and reaction of the herders to the forecast information. Most related studies are highly descriptive (of the view of indigenous people) and lack critical appraisal on how to determine the validity of indigenous weather forecasting system. In a bid to address that lacuna, this book chapter assesses the relative merits and demerits of differ- ent indigenous weather forecasting systems and their level of acceptance by the people. It is hoped that it would make significant contribution as to what policy directions should be fol- lowed vis-à-vis agricultural development programs. Attempt is made to distinguish aspects of indigenous weather forecasting that could be readily dismissed as superstitious from those that merit appreciation for scientific validation. Revisiting Indigenous Biotic and Abiotic Weather Forecasting for Possible Integration... 137 http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.69887 2. Study area and research methodology 2.1. Study area Borana zone is found in Oromia Regional State of Ethiopia between 3°36ʹ–6°38ʹ N and 36°43ʹ–41°40ʹ E [20]. The zone covers a total area of 35,000 km2 [19]. The study site experienced semiarid climatic condition and has four distinct seasons. These are small rainy season, hot dry season, main rainy season, and cool dry season that roughly cover from September to November, December to January, March to May, and June to August, respectively. The rainfall amount decreases toward south, and annual rainfall amount ranges between 400 and 600 mm. The study site receives 59 and 27% of its rainfall during the main rainy season and small rainy season, respectively. There is no perennial river which crosses the study site [20]. In the study site, pastoralism is the dominant way of life. This study was conducted in Yabello and Arero woredas (districts) of CCAFS 30 × 30 block learning site. 2.2. Research methodology 2.2.1. Study site, sample size, and sampling technique Dida Hara PA in Yabello and Alona PA in Arero of CCAFS learning site were purposefully selected for the study. For questionnaire survey 200 herders were selected using simple ran- dom sampling technique. A total of four focus group discussions (FDG) having 12 participants in each session were organized. Eight indigenous astrologists, eight indigenous intestinal readers, four veterinarians, four botanists, and two astrologists were also interviewed. 2.2.2. Sources and data collection methods In this research flexible and eclectic research approaches which combine participatory rural appraisal (PRA) (as a tool in overt observation, FGD), key informant interview and survey questionnaire were used to collect data from different stakeholders. Overt observation and diagnostic approach were used as a complementary approach to understand how technical skills of indicators sign interpretation. Data was also gathered through in-depth interviews and questionnaire. The quantitative method deals mainly with herders’ socioeconomic prepa- rations following the forecast and perceptions on the status of the Borana weather forecast. Metrological data was also collected at National Meteorological Agency. 2.2.3. Data analysis technique For the qualitative data which was collected using observation, interview, and focus group discussions, thematic content analysis was applied. Paraphrasing, identification, and charac- terization of the recurring themes were carried out in the analytical procedure. The household survey was analyzed using simple descriptive technique, i.e., percentage. Drought assess- ment method which was developed by [21] was adopted to identify drought and normal years within the last 27 years. 138 Indigenous People 3. Results and discussions 3.1. Participants’ background information Table 1 provides background information of herders who were approached to gather data for this research. Illiteracy is rampant, and attendances of primary school’s first- and second- cycle education were 3.5 and 0.5%, respectively. Predominant majority of them (80%) adhere to the indigenous religion called Wake Feta followed by Islam and Christianity. Indigenous weather forecast system was the source of weather information for 96.5% of the respondents, while the rest had access to modern meteorological weather information. Herders have lim- ited modern mass media weather information. 3.2. Mode of acquiring the skill of weather forecast among the Borana herders Not all Borana herders possess the skill of different modes of indigenous weather forecasting, and there are different ways of acquiring the skill. Those who make astrology-based weather forecasting, known as Urgii Elaltu, teach the skill to their eldest son as they received it from their fathers, and the process goes on. A trainee masters the skill at about adolescent age and starts to read the alignment of celestial bodies for weather forecast. Thereafter, the title of Urgii Elaltu will be bestowed to him. The skill being highly guarded with secrecy, the possibil- ity for others to acquire it is closed, although there are few individuals who reported to have acquired the skill from friends. In most cases, however, the skill of astrology-based weather forecasting is inherited from their own fathers. Item Participants (N = 200) Educational level Illiterate M F Total % 1–4 167 25 192 96 5–8 7 0 7 3.5 9–10 0 0 0 0 Religion Wake Feta 142 17 159 79.5 Christian 10 0 10 5 Muslim 23 8 31 15.5 Others 0 0 0 0 Source of weather Indigenous 168 25 193 93.5 information Development 52 0 52 26 agent Relatives/friends 165 21 186 93 Radio 21 0 21 10.5 TV 0 0 0 0 Table 1. Participants’ education, religion, and access to weather information. Revisiting Indigenous Biotic and Abiotic Weather Forecasting for Possible Integration... 139 http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.69887 Learning the technique of weather forecasting based on reading of animal intestine takes up to 2 years of training. A person who completed the training and started to make weather forecast based on intestinal reading is known as Uchuu. Intestinal exploration is used to forecast about the timing and intensity of drought, peace, conflict, the time of livestock mass death, and the timing and the place where good pasture will be available. In the study site, there were no female experts in astronomy and intestine reading. The result is cognate with previous findings in other parts of the world, i.e., indigenous knowledge is gendered and obscured the contribution and interest of women [22]. Weather forecasting based on a read- ing of the behavior and body language of animals and plants or observation of weather conditions is largely known by many people and is almost a tradition. For that reason, no special title is used to designate a person who makes weather forecast from the observation of weather conditions and the body conditions and behavior of the cattle. The same applies to the skill of weather forecasting based on observation of plant conditions. As is the case in some other cultures, vertical and horizontal skill transmission takes place orally which impedes seamless transfer of indigenous knowledge from generation to generation espe- cially when experts die untimely [23]. The accurate transmission of oral indigenous knowl- edge of weather forecasting across generation is also influenced by both the teacher and capability skill receiver. 3.3. Types of indigenous weather forecasting Among the Borana herders, indigenous weather forecasting was made based on (1) a reading of alignment of celestial bodies, (2) a reading of the conditions of animal intestine, (3) a read- ing of plant and animal body languages, and (4) observation of local weather phenomena and shape and color of celestial bodies. How such traditional mechanisms and technical know- hows are used are discussed below. 3.3.1. Reading of celestial body alignment In Borana, some stars’ alignment with the moon, stars’ apparent movement and location, and decent and cessation of some stars were used for weather forecasting purposes. Like other indicators of weather forecasting, there was no special ritual activity or any food or sexual restrictions. Celestial bodies, indigenous astrol Urgii Elaltus were able to forecast the upcom- ing rainfall onset, cessation, and volume at different time scales, i.e., ranging from a week to 3 years. The detailed techniques of the know-how are presented as follows. 3.3.1.1. Reading of the alignment of celestial bodies using the Geda calendar Based on the alignment of celestial body reading, Urgii Elaltus claim to be able to make weather forecasts 6 months or more in advance of the timing, duration, and amount of rain- fall or drought. Weather forecast based on stars’ position and their alignment with the moon is considered to be the most effective method for weather forecasting. Urgii Elaltus reported that there are seven stars (individual or in groups) known locally as Lemi (believed to be the mother of all and very important for forecasting), Busan, Soresa, Algajama, Arba-Gadu, Walla, and Bassa. The different alignments of such stars in relation to the position of the moon provide data for weather forecasts. There are a maximum of seven star-moon alignments, 140 Indigenous People but observing only the Lemi-moon alignment is enough for weather forecasting. Unlike the claims of [10], this study found that astrological features are used for long-term weather prediction. Among the Borana herders, observation of star-moon alignment for weather forecast is made partly in reference to the lunar Borana calendar. The association is partial in the sense that Urgii Elaltus use months of the Borana calendar to choose the timing of observing star-moon align- ment. The Borana calendar divides the year into 12 months. The first and the last months of the year in Borana calendar are Amajjii and Abrassa, respectively. For the purpose of weather fore- casting, Urgii Elaltus divide months of the year in the Geda calendar into two groups each com- prising 6 months. The first group comprises the months of Birra, Ciqqa’a, Sadassa, Abrassa, Amajjii, and Gurandhala. The first 3 months represent the short rainy season, while the last 3 months are the hot dry season. It is only during Birra that Urgii Elaltus calculate star-moon alignment for weather forecast. The second group of months comprises Biouttessa, Chamissa, Buufa, Waxxabaji, Obora-Gudda, and Obra-Teka. The first 3 months represent the main rainy season, while the last three are months of the cold dry season. Of the 6 months, it is only during Biouttessa which Urgii Elaltus can calculate in terms of star-moon alignment for weather forecasts. In Borana observation of the constellation of celestial bodies takes place in the month of Birra (September) on the fourteenth and fifteenth moon day at 9:00 p.m. in order to predict the weather for the main rainy season (Biouttessa, Chamissa, Buufa). The small rainy season weather forecast is made in the month of Biouttessa (March) on the first and second day of the moon at 09:00 p.m. When asked to elaborate the rationale behind the specific date for forecast- ing, the Elaltus were unable to justify their choice. Weather forecasting for the main and small rainy season is made through observation of star- moon alignment in the months of Birra (September) and Biouttessa (March), respectively. However, it is not clear why Urgii Elaltus use Birra and Biouttessa even the date and time to forecast the prospect of rainfall. They were asked to elaborate the rationale behind, but they were unable to justify their choice. Urgii Elaltu makes forecast for the small and main rainy seasons as follows. Figures 1 and 2 show the seven star-moon alignments as described by Urgii Elaltus, which they used for observation during the months of Birra and Biouttessa: I. If the first alignment (moon and Lemi) is observed in the month of Birra, it signifies that 14 days have elapsed since the first appearance of the moon. This Ayana (year) is known locally as Gonchera. The alignment is interpreted as an indicator of a delay in the onset and early cessation for the next main rainy season. II. The second moon-Lemi constellation is referred to as Gobana and predicts that the next main rainy season will be normal and be a time of abundance, peace, and love. III. If the first moon-Lemi alignment, known locally as Bita-Dura or Kera, is observed in the month of Biouttessa, it is considered to be a sign of a coming season of drought and famine during the small rainy season. Revisiting Indigenous Biotic and Abiotic Weather Forecasting for Possible Integration... 141 http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.69887 Figure 1. The first three moon-star alignments. Sources: Diagram sketched based on the description of Urgii Elaltu. Figure 2. The four moon-star alignments. Sources: Diagram sketched based on the description of Urgii Elaltu. IV. On the other hand, the second moon-Lemi alignment signifies that the next season would be Beta-Bella, in which a timely and optimal rainfall is expected. Whether the reported moon-star alignments actually occur in reality during the specific months, informant mentioned is not of interest to this study. Equally, the meteorological con- sequence of those alignments on earth is difficult to negate or confirm. However, modern science has reached a stage where the movement, position, and speed of celestial bodies in different times and ages are certainly known. It is established beyond a shadow of doubt that the alternating constellations of celestial bodies caused by their differential rotation and movement are very regular. If Urgii Elaltus’ perception about the impact of moon-star align- ment were true, then we would naturally expect to experience drought and normal year in 142 Indigenous People a very regular succession, and if changes to that regularity are to happen, it would only be possible in thousands of years. Hence, the actually experienced drought seasons being very erratic than regular, and knowing that the alignment changes are very regular, indigenous experts’ claim does not tally with the reality. This must account for the discrepancy between their forecasting and the actual phenomena. 3.3.1.2. The apparent movement duration of Bekalcha Bari or Bekalcha Gulchu The morning star known locally as Bekalcha Bari (star at dawn east direction) and Bekalcha Gulchu or Ahiha (in the west) is used to forecast extreme drought conditions. If it is seen in the west 70 days after it has been observed in the east, and if it is seen in the east 7 days after its appearance in the west, it assumed that the prospective season will be normal. However, if it is not observed in the east on the seventh day after its appearance in the west and is observed again in the west after 140 days, it is regarded as an indicator of future extreme drought. 3.3.1.3. Geometrical alignment of celestial bodies In Borana the alignment of the moon with the Busan is also used to forecast the upcoming weather. If the Busan is observed in the west by a man milking a cow at 08:00 p.m. under the cow belly, then it is regarded as an indicator of the arrival of the main rainy season. On the other hand, if it is seen in the east to a person milking a cow at night at 08:00 p.m. under the cow belly, it indicates the arrival of the small rainy season. The informants could not explain why the observer should be in a milking position with a cow in such a way that he/she should observe Busan in the east or west. If it is supposed to imply any geometrical value, for example, to calculate the impact of that constellation on earth, unfortunately that is out of the scope of this study to prove. Here, it is interesting only to say that this observation is not made to forecast the likelihood of normal rainfall or drought, but to simply know the arrival of the main and small rainy seasons. 3.3.1.4. The apparent size of the stars A star locally known as Kormi Mado is located in the southern hemisphere. It moves in a clock- wise direction and never moves to the north of a perceived line of the equator (see Figure 3). The position of Kormi Mado is used to make forecasts both for the long and short rainy seasons. The forecasting is based on the size of the star at the time of observation. If it is observed in the month of Birra and seemingly smaller in size at the 14th day of the moon at 09:00 p.m., the forecast for the upcoming main rainy season would be drought. On the other hand, if the star is observed, on the same month, day, and time, with a seemingly greater size to normal, a rainy season is expected. The star is also used to make weather forecasts for the small rainy season. While the interpretation of the size of the star is the same, for the small rainy season, the timing of observa- tion is in the month of Biouttessa on the 1st day of the moon and at 09:00 p.m. local time. 3.3.1.5. Apparent movement of the star Turban is located only in the northern hemisphere moving in a clockwise direction. The posi- tion of Turban is not used to forecast the starting and cessation time of rainfall as well as the Revisiting Indigenous Biotic and Abiotic Weather Forecasting for Possible Integration... 143 http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.69887 Figure 3. Significant moon positions used for weather forecast. Sources: Diagram sketched based on the description of Urgii Elaltu. volume of the rain. When it is observed on the position shown in Figure 3, experts realize that the rainy season is approaching. When Turban is observed near to the extreme North Pole, Urgii Elaltus believe that the small rainy season is approaching. Conversely, when Turban moves from its southern path into the northern path of rotation, it is believed that the main rainy season will arrive within 2 weeks. 3.3.1.6. Other indicators used to validate star-moon alignment weather forecasting The Borana herders use data from the condition of weather and climate elements such as sunlight, cloud cover, temperature, and wind necessary not only to forecast weather but also to strengthen forecasts based on other biotic and abiotic indigenous weather forecasting sys- tems. If, at the time of star observation, the sun is surrounded with what is locally called Muna Garti, herders conclude that drought will occur in the next season. If, on the same day, a solar radiant with reddish color is observed at sunrise, experts believe that the next season will have normal rainfall. A dull and white sky at sunrise is equated to the future drought. When people notice that their locality experiences a strong and fast wind blowing from east to west, they expect that drought is forthcoming. However, if the wind blows slowly raising the dust upward, people expect normal rainfall at the right time. The appearance of a whit- ish feather-like column of cloud (in a vertical position) in the sky is regarded as indicative of rainfall which is about to fall. If the sky is dominantly covered by light cloud, herders do not expect rainfall shortly. 3.3.2. Reading of animal intestines Uchuus claim that intestinal features that are used for weather forecast are mirrors of the future weather conditions. This stems from a dictum that the future weather and sociopolitical condi- tions of an area are encoded in animals’ intestines where the sex and age of the animal do not matter, although an informant indicated the females and older ones preferably. The intestines of cattle, sheep, and goats are used to forecast about the magnitude, severity, and duration of drought, drought-affected places, disease outbreak, the prospect of peace, and/or conflict.