Personalized Medical Decision Making for Prevention of a First Cardiovascular Event 1 Bart Ferket Chapter 2 Chapter Personalized Medical Decision Making for Prevention of a First Cardiovascular Event 3 Bart Ferket Chapter 4 Personalized Medical Decision Making for Prevention of a First Cardiovascular Event Dissertation, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, the Netherlands ISBN 978-90-9027687-8 Author Bart Stephan Ferket Design Og˘uz Kurt, www.kurtontwerp.nl Cover photography & sculpture Ton Everaers Print Ipskamp Drukkers BV Copyright © 2013 B. S. Ferket, Amsterdam, the Netherlands All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form by any means, without written permission of the author. Financial support for the printing of this thesis was provided by: The Departments of Radiology and Epidemiology of the Erasmus Medical Center, the Erasmus University Rotterdam, ChipSoft, and the J.E. Jurriaanse Stichting. Chapter Personalized Medical Decision Making for Prevention of a First Cardiovascular Event Geïndividualiseerde medische besluitvorming ter preventie van een primair cardiovasculair incident PROEFSCHRIFT 5 ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor aan de Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam op gezag van de rector magnificus Prof. dr. H.G. Schmidt en volgens besluit van het College voor Promoties. De openbare verdediging zal plaatsvinden op woensdag 2 oktober 2013 om 15:30 uur door Bart Stephan Ferket geboren te Purmerend Chapter PROMOTIECOMMISSIE Promotoren: Prof. dr. M.G.M. Hunink Prof. dr E.W. Steyerberg Overige leden: Prof. dr. K.E. Fleischmann Dr. S.E. Petersen Prof. dr. O.H. Franco 6 Chapter CONTENTS Chapter 1 General introduction and outline 9 Part 1 Systematic reviews 17 Chapter 2 Systematic review of guidelines on cardiovascular risk assessment: Which recommendations should clinicians folow for a cardiovascular health check? 19 Chapter 3 Systematic review of guidelines on imaging of asymptomatic coronary artery disease 41 Chapter 4 Systematic review of guidelines on abdominal aortic aneurysm screening 59 Chapter 5 Systematic review of guidelines on peripheral artery disease screening 75 Part 2 Modeling studies 91 Chapter 6 Validation of a model to investigate the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors on the burden of CVD: the Rotterdam Ischemic heart disease and Stroke Computer simulation (RISC) model 93 Chapter 7 Do different methods of modeling statin treatment effectiveness influence the optimal decision? 113 Chapter 8 Personalized prediction of lifetime benefits with statin therapy for asymptomatic individuals: a modeling study 133 Chapter 9 Separate prediction of intracerebral hemorrhage and ischemic stroke: results from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, Rotterdam Study, 7 and Cardiovascular Health Study 155 Chapter 10 Performance of Framingham cardiovascular disease (CVD) predictions in the Rotterdam Study taking into account competing risks and disentangling CVD into coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke 171 Chapter 11 Predictive value of updating Framingham risk scores with novel risk markers in the U.S. general population 187 Chapter 12 Coronary computed tomography versus exercise testing in patients with stable chest pain: comparative efectivenes and costs 201 Chapter 13 Summary and discussion 221 Samenvatting 235 Chapter 14 Appendices 241 Dankwoord I Acknowledgements 269 List of publications 271 PhD portfolio 273 About the author 27 Chapter Chapter 1 General introduction and outline 10 Chapter 1