Reimund Mink Official Statistics— A Plaything of Politics? On the Interaction of Politics, Official Statistics, and Ethical Principles Official Statistics—A Plaything of Politics? Reimund Mink Official Statistics—A Plaything of Politics? On the Interaction of Politics, Official Statistics, and Ethical Principles Reimund Mink Eschborn, Germany ISBN 978-3-031-04623-0 ISBN 978-3-031-04624-7 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-04624-7 Translation from the German language edition: “Die Statistik – ein Spielball der Politik?” by Reimund Mink, © Metropolis-Verlag 2020. Published by Metropolis-Verlag. All Rights Reserved. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland For Annerose Preface This book not only describes official statistics as a tool to hold up a mirror to society, but also as an instrument for those who can manipulate this mirror. It addresses the precarious interaction of politics, official statistics, and ethical principles. Three sets of themes can be derived from this relationship, which are the focus of this book: political systems and guiding principles, official statistics as a science of the state, and ethical issues arising from them. Ultimately, the determining factor is the political system that exists in each case. The book contains 12 chapters. The first three focus on the key concepts of the book: power and morality, official statistics and policy-making, and ethical principles for statistical work. Three further chapters focus on episodes that illustrate, as “dras- tic” examples, the misuse of official statistics over the past hundred years, covering the situation in the Soviet Union, the Third Reich, and Greece. The remaining six chapters deal with current topics that pose challenges for official statistics. Four of them refer to the phenomena paraphrased by digitalisation and a pandemic, global- isation, Ireland’s miraculous economic growth, and happiness research. Chapter 11 describes the adverse effects of power-driven national policies for official statis- tics while Chap. 12 provides a worldview on statistics by comparing and analysing income and wealth inequality, overpopulation, and climate change. The book is primarily aimed not only at economists and statisticians working in national and international statistical institutions, but also at readers interested in statistics, national accounts, economic and statistics history, and ethical issues. Eschborn, Germany Reimund Mink vii Acknowledgements As always, writing a book has many helpers without whom it would not have come about. It is therefore important to thank the many colleagues and friends who helped me to complete the book through suggestions and criticism. Great thanks are due to Karl-Heinz Tödter and Karlheinz Kopp, with whom I had many discussions on various topics addressed in the book and from whom I received numerous suggestions for improving the manuscript. Karl-Heinz Tödter also gave me the tip to include some thoughts on the role of official statistics in the former GDR. I am indebted to my brother Peter-Josef Mink for his comments on ethics. Bernd Struck pointed out ethical issues of official statistics in some African countries and Klaus Voy gave me important information on the history of official statistics in Germany in the first half of the twentieth century. My special thanks go to Metropolis-Verlag and its Managing Director Hubert Hoffmann for their trust and willingness to include the book in their publishing programme, as well as for the many valuable comments on the first draft. Isabell Kieser supported me in finalising the German version, which was published in November 2020. After the German edition of the book was released, Werner Bier encouraged me to produce an English version of the book as well. Veronika Rosteck, Sudhany Karthick and Chandra Sekaran Arjunan from Springer Verlag actively supported me in the preparatory work. Three anonymous reviewers made valuable contributions to the final draft of the English version. I would also like to thank the institutions and publishers who allowed the reprinting of some of the motifs, photos, and quotations contained in the book—Katrin Hiller from akg-images, Gert Sudholt from Druffel und Vohwinkel Verlag, Robert Shatzkin from W. W. Norton & Company, Inc., and Claudia Pakula from Galerie Thaddaeus Ropac, Paris. ix x Acknowledgements Finally, I would like to dedicate this book to all those colleagues and friends in national and international institutions who work tirelessly for the independence and integrity of official statistics. Eschborn, Germany Reimund Mink January 2022 Contents 1 Introduction .................................................. 1 1.1 Political Systems and Models .............................. 2 1.2 Statistics and Government Action ........................... 3 1.3 Official Statistics and Ethics ............................... 5 1.4 Today’s Challenges ....................................... 6 2 Power and Morality ........................................... 9 2.1 Of the Good and Bad in Politics ............................ 10 The Palazzo Pubblico in Siena ............................. 10 The Allegory of Good Government ......................... 11 The Allegory of Bad Government ........................... 13 The Fresco Cycle as a Key Work ........................... 15 The Fresco Cycle From Today’s Perspective .................. 16 Beccafumi’s Frescoes ..................................... 17 The Idea of Reason of State ................................ 18 2.2 Human Dignity and Human Rights .......................... 20 Human Dignity .......................................... 20 Human Excellence and Human Misery ...................... 21 The Dignity of the Human Being as a Person ................. 23 Human Rights ........................................... 24 The Role of Natural Law .................................. 24 Liberty, Equality, Fraternity ................................ 26 3 On the History of Statistics and Policy-Making ................... 27 3.1 Descriptive Statistics and State Studies ...................... 29 Censuses and Tax Estimates ............................... 29 Official Surveys .......................................... 31 University Statistics ...................................... 34 3.2 Political Arithmetic ....................................... 38 John Graunt, William Petty, and Gregory King ............... 39 Johann Peter Süßmilch .................................... 41 Lambert Adolphe Jacob Quetelet ........................... 47 xi xii Contents 3.3 Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics ............... 47 3.4 National Accounts ........................................ 52 From the Beginnings in the 1930s to the Post-war Period ....... 52 Germany from 1925 Until After the War ..................... 53 On the Economic Development in the German Democratic Republic ................................................ 55 Official Statistics in the German Democratic Republic ......... 57 The Architecture of an Integrated System .................... 57 Reconciliation of Statistical Data ........................... 60 4 Ethical Norms for Statistical Work .............................. 63 4.1 On the Concept of Ethics .................................. 63 4.2 Business Ethics Schools of Thought ......................... 65 The Moral Philosophy of Adam Smith ...................... 65 The Normative Individualist Approach of Karl Homann ........ 66 The Ethical Values Underlying the Social Market Economy .... 68 4.3 Ethical Principles in Official Statistics ....................... 70 The United Nations Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics ................................................ 71 The European Statistics Code of Practice .................... 73 Ten Basic Principles of Official Statistics in Germany ......... 74 4.4 Professional Ethics of a Statistician ......................... 75 4.5 Quality Measurement of Statistical Data ..................... 77 Quality Management in Companies ......................... 78 Quality Concepts in Statistics .............................. 79 Approaches to Quality Management in Official Statistics ....... 81 Quality Standards of Official Statistics in Germany ............ 82 4.6 Statistics, the Public, and Politics ........................... 83 5 Censuses in the Soviet Union and Afterwards .................... 85 5.1 The Abortive 1920 Census and the Attempts Thereafter ........ 87 5.2 Josef Stalin, the 1937 Census and the Consequences ........... 89 Inaccurate Projection of the Population ...................... 92 Propaganda and Preparatory Work .......................... 94 Preliminary Results ....................................... 100 The Consequences ....................................... 101 The Possibility of a Dignified Commemoration for the Victims of Bolshevism .............................. 104 5.3 The 2010 Census in Russia ................................ 106 5.4 Kazakhstan’s 2009 Census ................................. 107 Accusations Against the ARKS Leadership .................. 108 A Kleptocratic Regime .................................... 109