Naval War College Review Volume 70 Article 11 Number 1 Winter 2017 2017 Winter 2017 Full Issue Te Naval War College Follow this and additional works at: htps://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review Recommended Citation War College, Te Naval (2017) "Winter 2017 Full Issue," Naval War College Review: Vol. 70 : No. 1 , Article 11. Available at: htps://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review/vol70/iss1/11 Tis Full Issue is brought to you for free and open access by the Journals at U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Naval War College Review by an authorized editor of U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. For more information, please contact War College: Winter 2017 Full Issue Winter 2017 Volume 70, Number 1 Published by U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons, 2017 1 Winter 2017 Naval War College Review, Vol. 70 [2017], No. 1, Art. 11 Cover Caption: U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Kiska (WPB 1336) in waters off Hawaii. In March 2002, Coast Guard officers from Kiska and FBI agents took PRC national Shi Lei off the Seychelles-registered, Tai- wan-owned fishing vessel Full Means II in international waters and arrested him for murder. Shi was tried, convicted, and sentenced to prison in the United States. This remains the only instance of U.S. assertion of jurisdiction and prosecution under the implementing legislation for the 1988 SUA Convention, subsequently updated. In “Effective Implementation of the 2005 Convention on the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Maritime Navigation,” James Kraska ex- plains that many states have not acceded to the 2005 treaty, and most of those that have done so have not taken the steps required to implement it effectively, even though the need to do so is perhaps even greater today. USCG photo by CPO Sara Mooers. https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review/vol70/iss1/11 2 War College: Winter 2017 Full Issue NAVAL WAR COLLEGE REVIEW W retni 7102 Voul em 70, Nuebm r 1 NAVAL WAR COLLEGE PRESS 686 Cushing Road Newport, RI 02841-1207 Published by U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons, 2017 3 6831_FrontMatter.indd 1 12/20/16 10:32 AM Naval War College Review, Vol . 07 ,]7102[ No . ,1 Art . 1 NAVAL WAR COLLEGE PRESS ADVISORY B OARD PRESIDENT, NAVAL WAR COLLEGE Rear Adm. Jeffrey A. Harley, USN Adam Bellow Seth Cropsey PROVOST Jeffrey Kline Dr. Lewis M. Duncan Gale A. Mattox DEAN OF NAVAL WARFARE STUDIES Capt. Robert C. Rubel, USN (Ret.) Thomas J. Culora Robert A. Silano Marin Strmecki NAVAL WAR COLLEGE PRESS Dov S. Zakheim Carnes Lord, Editor Robert Ayer, Managing Editor NAVAL WAR COLLEGE REVIEW EDITORIAL B OARD Katherine Acosta, Associate Editor Donald Chisholm Timothy J. Demy and Brad Carter, Book Review Stephen Downes-Martin Editors Andrew Erickson Lori A. Almeida, Administrative Assistant and Col. Theodore L. Gatchel, USMC (Ret.) Circulation Manager Cdr. Sean Henseler, USN (Ret.) Frank Uhlig Jr., Editor Emeritus Cdr. James Kraska, USN (Ret.) Naval War College Review Capt. Thomas Mangold, USN (Ret.) Code 32, Naval War College John Maurer 686 Cushing Rd., Newport, RI 02841-1207 Col. Mackubin Owens, USMC (Ret.) Fax: 401.841.1071 Capt. Derek S. Reveron, USNR DSN exchange, all lines: 841 Capt. Peter M. Swartz, USN (Ret.) Website: www.usnwc.edu/press Capt. Sam Tangredi, USN (Ret.) http://twitter.com/NavalWarCollege Scott C. Truver James J. Wirtz Editor, Circulation, or Business 401.841.2236 War College: Winter 2017 uF ll Issue The Naval War College Review was established in 1948 as a forum for discussion of public policy matters of interest to the maritime services. The thoughts and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and are not necessarily those of the U.S. government, the U.S. Navy Department, or the Naval War College. The journal is published quarterly. Distribution is limited generally to commands and activities of the U.S. Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard; regular and reserve officers of U.S. services; foreign officers and civilians having a present or previous affiliation with the Naval War College; selected U.S. government officials and agencies; and selected U.S. and international libraries, research centers, publica­ tions, and educational institutions. Contributors Please request the standard contributors’ guidance from the managing editor or access it online before submitting manuscripts. The Naval War College Review nei­ ther offers nor makes compensation for articles or book reviews, and it assumes no responsibility for the return of manuscripts, although every effort is made to return those not accepted. In submitting work, the sender warrants that it is original, that it is the sender’s property, and that neither it nor a similar work by the sender has been accepted or is under consideration elsewhere. Permissions Reproduction and reprinting are subject to the Copyright Act of 1976 and appli­ cable treaties of the United States. To obtain permission to reproduce material bearing a copyright notice, or to reproduce any material for commercial pur­ poses, contact the editor for each use. Material not bearing a copyright notice may be freely reproduced for academic or other noncommercial use; however, it is requested that the author and Naval War College Review be credited and that the editor be informed. Periodicals postage paid at Newport, RI. POSTMASTERS, send address changes to: Naval War College Review, Code 32S, Naval War College, 686 Cushing Rd., Newport, RI 02841­1207. ISSN 0028­1484 Published by U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons, 2017 5 Printer_Winter2017Review.indb 3 12/15/16 1:53 PM Naval War College Review, Vol. 70 [2017], No. 1, Art. 11 https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review/vol70/iss1/11 6 6831_FrontMatter.indd 4 12/20/16 10:48 AM War College: Winter 2017 Full Issue CONTENTS From the Editors � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 3 President’s Forum � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 7 International Law Effective Implementation of the 2005 Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Maritime Navigation � � � � � � � � � � � � � 11 James Kraska Although the 2005 SUA Convention provides a road map for realization of the vision of an effec- tive global regime to combat maritime terrorism, and the need for implementation of the treaty is perhaps even greater today, many states have not taken the necessary steps to implement it� International Law and Search and Rescue � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 25 Rick Button The existing international search-and-rescue system, with its shared responsibilities between shipmasters and coastal states, is challenged by mass migration by sea, SAR cases that impinge on national boundaries, and persons in distress who decline to be assisted� War Gaming Changing DoD’s Analysis Paradigm The Science of War Gaming and Combat/Campaign Simulation� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 64 John T. Hanley Jr. Neither war gaming nor combat/campaign simulation is more scientific than the other; both should be part of DoD’s planning� But they should be supported by a return to the roots of opera- tions research, augmented by advances in related scientific fields� Asia Rising A Himalayan Challenge India’s Conventional Deterrent and the Role of Special Operations Forces along the Sino-Indian Border � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 104 Iskander Rehman The long, uneasy coexistence between India and China in the Himalayas is under threat� India’s buttressing of its security must incorporate not only improvements to its conventional forces but enhanced use of special operations forces complemented by tribal scouts and militias� Published by U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons, 2017 7 6856_TOC_Revised.indd 1 12/16/16 9:43 AM 2 NAVA L WA R C O L L E G E R E V I E W Naval War College Review, Vol. 70 [2017], No. 1, Art. 11 The Development of Vietnam’s Sea-Denial Strategy� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 143 Shang-su Wu With its water borders under threat, Vietnam has pursued a sea-denial strategy to protect its inter- ests and has worked to build up the relevant military capabilities to strengthen its hand diplomati- cally and avoid being the most likely victim of foreign aggression� Review Essay What Is Victory? � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 162 The Verdict of Battle: The Law of Victory and the Making of Modern War, by James Q. Whitman Understanding Victory: Naval Operations from Trafalgar to the Falklands, by Geoffrey Till reviewed by John B� Hattendorf Book Reviews Pussycats: Why the Rest Keeps Beating the West and What Can Be Done about It, by Martin van Creveld reviewed by Jan van Tol� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 169 Assessing China’s Naval Power: Technological Innovation, Economic Constraints, and Strategic Implications, by Sarah Kirchberger reviewed by Dale C� Rielage � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 174 Deng Xiaoping’s Long War: The Military Conflict between China and Vietnam, 1979–1991, by Xiaoming Zhang reviewed by Richard J� Norton� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 176 Reflections on Reading � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 179 https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review/vol70/iss1/11 8 6856_TOC_Revised.indd 2 12/15/16 2:08 PM War College: Winter 2017 Full Issue FROM THE EDITORS It is well to be reminded that the global maritime domain is a vast, largely un- governed realm where good order particularly requires effective international coordination under well-understood legal regimes. In “Effective Implementation of the 2005 Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Maritime Navigation,” James Kraska uses the opportunity of the tenth anniver- sary of the signing of the SUA Convention (as it is generally called) to review the status of this important international agreement, which was designed to combat both maritime terrorism and transnational criminal activity. He concludes that the international community has been remiss in developing appropriate pro- cedures to implement the agreement, and suggests a way forward for remedy- ing this (surprising and dismaying) state of affairs. James Kraska is Howard S. Levie Professor in the Stockton Center for the Study of International Law at the Naval War College. Rick Button, in “International Law and Search and Rescue,” provides a comparable overview of the current status of international maritime law relating to search and rescue of vessels and persons in distress. Here again, considerable progress has been made in codifying the legal parameters and best practices that apply in this area, but much additional work remains to be done, particularly in clarifying the very difficult issues involving the handling of large numbers of seaborne migrants and refugees in the Mediterranean and elsewhere. Rick Button is a senior official in U.S. Coast Guard Headquarters in Washington, DC. As John Hanley reminds us, war gaming has been a hallmark of the Naval War College since the late nineteenth century, and played a particularly important role during the interwar years in preparing senior officers of the U.S. Navy to prosecute the Pacific War to its successful conclusion. In “Changing DoD’s Anal- ysis Paradigm: The Science of War Gaming and Combat/Campaign Simulation,” Hanley provides an authoritative account of the evolution of military operations analysis in the American defense community over the last half-century. He ar- gues that recent advances in chaos and complexity theory call for a rethinking of the now-dominant “analysis paradigm” that relies on large-scale computer modeling, in favor of a return to a more traditional approach to operations re- search and gaming. John Hanley is a former U.S. naval officer who has served Published by U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons, 2017 9 6844_FromTheEditors.indd 3 12/16/16 9:45 AM