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Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12785.html THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS • 500 Fifth Street, N.W. • Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special compe- tences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under contract number DG133R08CQ0062, TO# 4. Any opinions, fndings, conclusions, or recommen- dations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily refect the views of the sponsoring agency or any of its subagencies. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-14597-8 (Book) International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-14597-X (Book) International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-14598-5 (PDF) International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-14598-8 (PDF) Library of Congress Control Number: 2010940141 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu Cover images: Middle left: courtesy of www.public-domain-image.com Far right: courtesy of Department of Housing Copyright 2010 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12785.html The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonproft, self-perpetuating society of distin- guished scholars engaged in scientifc and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientifc and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to se- cure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and educa- tion. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of fur- thering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing ser- vices to the government, the public, and the scientifc and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12785.html Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12785.html AMERICA’S CLIMATE CHOICES: PANEL ON LIMITING THE MAGNITUDE OF FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE ROBERT W. FRI (Chair), Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C. MARILYN A. BROWN (Vice Chair), Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta DOUG ARENT, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado ANN CARLSON, University of California, Los Angeles MAJORA CARTER, Majora Carter Group, LLC, Bronx, New York LEON CLARKE, Joint Global Change Research Institute (Pacifc Northwest National Laboratory/University of Maryland), College Park, Maryland FRANCISCO DE LA CHESNAYE, Electric Power Research Institute, Washington, D.C. GEORGE C. EADS, Charles River Associates, Washington, D.C. GENEVIEVE GIULIANO, University of Southern California, Los Angeles ANDREW HOFFMAN, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor ROBERT O. KEOHANE, Princeton University, New Jersey LOREN LUTZENHISER, Portland State University, Oregon BRUCE MCCARL, Texas A&M University, College Station MACK MCFARLAND, DuPont, Wilmington, Delaware MARY D. NICHOLS, California Air Resources Board, Sacramento EDWARD S. RUBIN, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania THOMAS H. TIETENBERG, Colby College (retired), Waterville, Maine JAMES A. TRAINHAM, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina NRC Staff LAURIE GELLER, Study Director ALAN CRANE, Senior Program Offcer TOM MENZIES, Senior Program Offcer KATIE WELLER, Research Associate SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12785.html Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12785.html Foreword: About America’s Climate Choices onvened by the National Research Council in response to a request from Congress (P.L. 110-161), America’s Climate Choices is a suite of fve coordinated Cactivities designed to study the serious and sweeping issues associated with global climate change, including the science and technology challenges involved, and to provide advice on the most effective steps and most promising strategies that can be taken to respond. The Committee on America’s Climate Choices is responsible for providing overall direc- tion, coordination, and integration of the America’s Climate Choices suite of activities and ensuring that these activities provide well-supported, action-oriented, and useful advice to the nation. The committee convened a Summit on America’s Climate Choices on March 30–31, 2009, to help frame the study and provide an opportunity for high- level input on key issues. The committee is also charged with writing a fnal report that builds on four panel reports and other sources to answer the following four overarch- ing questions: • What short-term actions can be taken to respond effectively to climate change? • What promising long-term strategies, investments, and opportunities could be pursued to respond to climate change? • What are the major scientifc and technological advances needed to better understand and respond to climate change? • What are the major impediments (e.g., practical, institutional, economic, ethi- cal, intergenerational, etc.) to responding effectively to climate change, and what can be done to overcome these impediments? The Panel on Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change was charged to de- scribe, analyze, and assess strategies for reducing the net future human infuence on climate. This report focuses on actions to reduce domestic greenhouse gas emissions and other human drivers of climate change, such as changes in land use, but also con- siders the international dimensions of climate stabilization. The Panel on Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change was charged to describe, analyze, and assess actions and strategies to reduce vulnerability, increase adaptive ii Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12785.html F O R E W O R D capacity, improve resiliency, and promote successful adaptation to climate change in different regions, sectors, systems, and populations. The panel’s report draws on a wide range of sources and case studies to identify lessons learned from past experiences, promising current approaches, and potential new directions. The Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change was charged to provide a concise overview of past, present, and future climate change, including its causes and its impacts, and to recommend steps to advance our current understanding, including new observations, research programs, next-generation models, and the physical and human assets needed to support these and other activities. The panel’s report focuses on the scientifc advances needed both to improve our understanding of the integrated human-climate system and to devise more effective responses to climate change. The Panel on Informing Effective Decisions and Actions Related to Climate Change was charged to describe and assess different activities, products, strategies, and tools for informing decision makers about climate change and helping them plan and ex- ecute effective, integrated responses. The panel’s report describes the different types of climate change-related decisions and actions being taken at various levels and in different sectors and regions; it develops a framework, tools, and practical advice for ensuring that the best available technical knowledge about climate change is used to inform these decisions and actions. America’s Climate Choices builds on an extensive foundation of previous and ongoing work, including National Research Council reports, assessments from other national and international organizations, the current scientifc literature, climate action plans by various entities, and other sources. More than a dozen boards and standing com- mittees of the National Research Council were involved in developing the study, and many additional groups and individuals provided additional input during the study process. Outside viewpoints were also obtained via public events and workshops (including the Summit), invited presentations at committee and panel meetings, and comments received through the study website, http://americasclimatechoices.org. Collectively, the America’s Climate Choices suite of activities involves more than 90 volunteers from a range of communities including academia, various levels of govern- ment, business and industry, other nongovernmental organizations, and the interna- tional community. Responsibility for the fnal content of each report rests solely with the authoring panel and the National Research Council. However, the development of each report included input from and interactions with members of all fve study groups; the membership of each group is listed in Appendix A. iii Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12785.html Preface ackling climate change promises to be one of the most signifcant social and technological challenges of the 21st century. Since the industrial revolution, the Tatmosphere has been one of the world’s principal waste repositories because it has offered an easy and inexpensive means of managing unwanted by-products. It is currently absorbing a net gain of two parts per million of CO2 per year as the result of global emissions, and the world’s leading scientists believe that this change in atmo- spheric composition is changing the global climate. This report focuses on actions available to the United States to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The goal of actually limiting1 global climate change requires interna- tional cooperation, since most of this century’s emissions will come from developing countries, with U.S. emissions representing a shrinking portion of the total. Thus, our national strategy must promote domestic actions while at the same time infuencing the rest of the world to control their emissions. The United States has successfully reduced emissions of several key atmospheric pollutants—including SO2, NOX, and particulates—through the Clean Air Act. The cre- ation of a market for SO2 allowances, in conjunction with performance standards and a cap on emissions, provided strong incentives for entrepreneurs to develop lower-cost SO2 abatement technologies and approaches, and is one of the past century’s great- est environmental policy successes. Emissions of most GHGs, however, remain largely unregulated and continue to be discharged without penalty, through smokestacks, tailpipes, and chimneys, and by the destruction of forests. With no price on carbon, or regulatory pressure, there exist few incentives to mitigate emissions. Thus, we continue to “lock in” incumbent technologies and systems that are typically carbon-intensive. Changing these practices will require scientifc and engineering genius to create new energy systems that avoid emitting all but a small fraction of today’s GHGs while simultaneously powering global economic growth. Success will also necessitate insti- tutional, economic, social, and policy innovations to foster the widespread and rapid deployment of transformational technologies. 1 The term “limiting” climate change rather than “mitigation” of climate change was deliberately chosen, because in some circles, mitigation often refers to mitigating the impacts of climate change, that is, adapta- tion (the focus of another America’s Climate Choices panel report). Our focus is on limiting the main drivers of climate change (i.e., greenhouse gas emissions), with the expectation that this will contribute to limiting climate change itself. ix Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.