Monthly Grain Crop Review January 2021 Jefferson City, MO Monday, February 1, 2021 MO Dept of Ag/USDA Market News Grain bids have been on quite a rollercoaster ride through January. Weather conditions in South America, tightening grain supplies, and overseas grain demand have continued to be blamed for the turbulent market. Grain prices climbed to multiple year highs several times this month. Missouri is in great shape in terms of moisture. Only about sixteen percent of the state is included on the latest drought monitor, rated D0 Abnormally Dry. Most likely that will decrease with the next release of the monitor, due to the snow and wide spread rains that the state received late last week and into the weekend. Fields and pastures are sloppy, as the ground hasn’t had the chance to stay frozen very long. The 2020 Crop Production summary report was released on the 12th. According to USDA, corn for grain production for the previous year was estimated at 14.2 billion bushels, a four percent increase from 2019’s estimate. The average corn yield was estimated at 172 bushels per acre, an increase from 167.5 bushels per acre from 2019. The 2020 area harvested for grain had a one percent increase at 82.5 million acres. Soybean production in 2020 was estimated at 4.14 billion bushels, a sixteen percent increase from 2019. The average yield was estimated at 50.2 bushels, an increase of 2.8 bushels from the prior year. Harvested area was also increased to 82.3 million acres, ten percent more than 2019. The Missouri Crop Production report showed planted corn area was at 3.45 million acres, an increase of eight percent from 2019. Harvested area for grain was estimated at 3.28 million acres, a ten percent increase. Missouri corn yield was estimated at 171 bushels per acre, an increase of sixteen bushels from the prior year. Corn production was increased by 21 percent to 561 million bushels. Soybean planted area was estimated at 5.85 million acres and harvested area at 5.81 million acres, increases of fifteen percent and sixteen percent, respectively. The average soybean yield in Missouri was estimated at 50 bushels per acre, up from 46 bushels per acre in 2019. Soybean production was increased by 26 percent to 291 million bushels. Harvested area for winter wheat was decreased by five percent to 370,000 acres. The average winter wheat yield in Missouri was estimated at 62 bushels per acre, down one bushel from the previous year. Winter wheat production was decreased by seven percent from 2019 to 22.9 million bushels. The January WASDE report was also released on January 12th. The 2020/21 outlook for U.S. corn production was estimated at 14.182 billion bushels, a decrease of 324 million. This was due to a lower forecasted yield and reduction to harvested area, both figures listed above. Area planted was estimated at 90.8 million acres. Soybean production was estimated at 4.14 billion bushels, a decrease of 35 million acres. Minnesota, Iowa, and Kansas contributed most to those reductions. Estimated wheat ending stocks for 2020/21 were decreased by 26 million bushels to 836 million. January 2021 Corn Bids 5.85 5.80 5.75 5.70 5.65 5.60 5.55 5.50 5.45 5.40 5.35 5.30 5.25 §.2Q :,.1:, 5.10 5.05 5.00 4.95 4.90 4.85 4.80 4.75 4.70 4.65 4.60 4.55 4.50 - Kansas City - st. Louis - CEDtral South Ea st Barge The average January corn bid in Missouri was 5.26, 0.79 higher than December’s average corn bid. Statewide, corn bids ranged from 0.73 to 0.87 higher than last month’s averages. Compared to January 2020, this month’s corn bids were 1.15 to 1.50 higher, with the combined average 1.32 higher than a year ago. Area average corn bids closed on January 29 from 0.45 to 0.60 higher, when compared to January 4. January 2021 Soybean Bids - KansisCity - st.Louis - cmtral - south East Barge The average January soybean bid in Missouri was 13.76, 1.67 higher than December’s average soybean bid. Statewide, soybean bids ranged from 1.61 to 1.74 higher than last month’s averages. Compared to January 2020, soybean bids were 4.44 to 4.68 higher, with the combined average 4.59 higher than a year ago. On January 29, area average soybean bids closed 0.43 to 0.53 higher, when compared to January 4. January 2021 Wheat Bids 7.25 7.20 7.15 7.10 7.05 7.00 6.95 6.90 6.85 6.80 6.75 6.70 6.65 6.60 6.55 6.50 6.45 6.40 6.35 6.30 6.25 6.20 6.15 6.10 6.05 6.00 - Kansas City - st.Louis - cmtral - south East Barge The average January soft wheat bid in Missouri was 6.68, 0.57 higher than December’s average wheat bid. Statewide, wheat bids ranged from 0.53 to 0.65 higher than last month’s averages. Compared to January 2020, soft wheat bids were 0.61 to 1.11 higher, with the combined average 0.89 higher than a year ago. On January 29, wheat bids closed 0.21 to 0.26 higher, when compared to January 4. *Sets of data for the graphs are from the Missouri Grain Cash Bids report that is published daily. Only dates in which markets are trading are represented. Source: MO Dept of Ag/USDA Market News Service, Jefferson City, MO Caroline Tyler-Carter, Market Reporter, (573)751-5618 Monthly Grain Crop Review February 2021 Jefferson City, MO Monday, March 1, 2021 MO Dept of Ag/USDA Market News February was another month on a rollercoaster ride for grain bids. Disappointing numbers in USDA reports were released mid-month, however a delay to South American harvest and technical buying encouraged prices to increase the last part of February. There is a large soybean harvest expected in South America, keeping a lid on potential higher prices. There are also some concerns with the new cases of African swine fever in China, putting pressure on the soy market. This month’s WASDE report was released on February 9. U.S. exports for corn was increased by 50 million bushels and ending stocks were decreased to 1.552 billion bushels. However, the industry was expecting exports to be higher and ending stocks to be lower, causing the bulls to leave the market after the report came out. U.S. corn production was estimated at 14.182 billion bushels. U.S. soybean exports were also increased and ending stocks were lowered. Soybean production was estimated at 4.135 billion bushels, exports at 2.23 billion bushels, and ending stocks at 140 million bushels. The trade industry was expecting some friendlier numbers, so the market responded by some profiting and technical selling. U.S. wheat showed some offsets among exports, imports, and food use, but making the supply and demand estimates mostly unchanged. Ending stocks for 2020/21 were estimated at 836 million bushels. Production was decreased to 1.826 billion bushels. Total use was increased to 2.138 billion bushels. Bitter cold temperatures swept through the state mid-month. Plenty of snow and ice blanketed Missouri, putting more moisture into the ground. The current Missouri drought map, released February 23, shows only 1.63 percent of the state is affected by D0 Abnormally Dry drought, leaving 98.37 percent currently not impacted by drought. February 2021 Corn Bids 6.1 6.05 6 5.95 5.9 5.85 5.8 5.75 5.7 5.65 5.6 5.55 5.5 5.45 5.4 5.35 5.3 5.25 5.2 5.15 5.1 - Kansas City - st. Louis - ceotral South Ea st Barge The average February corn bid in Missouri was 5.59, 0.33 higher than January’s average corn bid. Statewide, corn bids ranged from 0.30 to 0.36 higher than last month’s averages. Compared to February 2020, this month’s corn bids were 1.47 to 1.88 higher, with the combined average 1.69 higher than a year ago. Area average corn bids closed on February 26 from 0.04 to 0.06 higher, when compared to February 1. February 2021 Soybean Bids 14.65 14.6 14.55 14.5 14.45 14.4 14.35 14.3 14.25 14.2 14.15 14.l 14.05 14 13.95 13.9 13.85 13.8 13.75 13.7 13.65 13.6 13.55 13.5 13.45 13.4 13.35 13.3 13.25 13.2 I - KansisCity - st.Louis - south East Barge The average February soybean bid in Missouri was 13.89, 0.13 higher than January’s average soybean bid. Statewide, soybean bids ranged from 0.07 to 0.23 higher than last month’s averages. Compared to February 2020, soybean bids were 4.90 to 5.05 higher, with the combined average 4.99 higher than a year ago. On February 26, area average soybean bids closed 0.45 to 0.51 higher, when compared to February 1. r February 2021 Wheat Bids 7:1 7.15 7.1 7.05 7 6.95 6.9 6.85 6.8 6.75 6.7 6.65 6.6 6.55 6.5 6.45 6.4 6.35 6.3 6.25 6.2 6.15 6.1 - K•nS1sCity - st.Louis - south East Barge The average February soft wheat bid in Missouri was 6.64, 0.04 lower than January’s average wheat bid. Statewide, wheat bids ranged from 0.03 to 0.06 lower than last month’s averages. Compared to February 2020, soft wheat bids were 0.81 to 1.22 higher, with the combined average 1.04 higher than a year ago. On February 26, wheat bids closed 0.05 lower to 0.04 higher, when compared to February 1. *Sets of data for the graphs are from the Missouri Grain Cash Bids report that is published daily. Only dates in which markets are trading are represented. Source: MO Dept of Ag/USDA Market News Service, Jefferson City, MO Caroline Tyler-Carter, Market Reporter, (573)751-5618 Monthly Grain Crop Review March 2021 Jefferson City, MO Thursday, April 1, 2021 MO Dept of Ag/USDA Market News March went out with a boom after another volatile month. South American weather and crop quality concerns have been a large factor in the volatility, as well as export numbers. The Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports were released on March 31, providing quite a shock to the grain markets. NASS’s numbers for prospective plantings for corn and soybeans were slightly higher than a year ago, but were lower than the average industry pre-report estimates. Corn planted area for all purposes for this year was estimated at 91.144 million acres, an increase of 325,000 acres from a year ago. The average industry pre- report estimate was at 93.208 million acres. Soybean planted acres for 2021 was estimated at 87.6 million acres, a five percent increase from last year. The average industry pre-report estimate was at 89.996 million acres. All wheat planted acres was estimated at 46.358 million acres, an increase of five percent from a year ago. The average industry pre-report estimate was at 44.971 million acres. For Missouri, producers are expected to plant 3.4 million acres for this year, a decrease of one percent from a year ago. Soybean planted area in Missouri is estimated at 5.8 million acres, a decrease of one percent from last year. Winter wheat in the ground from last fall was estimated at 650,000 acres, a 35 percent increase from a year ago. The quarterly grain stocks showed corn stocks in all positions at 7.701 billion bushels, a three percent decrease from a year ago and the lowest in six years. The average industry estimate was at 7.767 billion bushels. Soybeans stocks in all positions on March 1 was at 1.564 billion bushels, a decrease of 31 percent from a year ago and the lowest in five years. The average industry pre-report estimate was at 1.543 billion bushels. All wheat stored in all positions was at 1.31 billion bushels, a decrease of seven percent from a year ago, and the lowest in five years. The average industry estimate was at 1.278 billion bushels. Missouri received plenty of moisture throughout March and the recent warm weather encouraged grass to green up. The latest drought monitor was released April 1, showing zero percent of the state is currently impacted by drought. Planters have been drug out of the shed; fertilizer buggies and anhydrous tanks have also been out and about, preparing for the spring season. University of Missouri tracks soil temperatures in 35 locations across Missouri. As of March 30, the majority of locations show temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s, except for a few locations in northern Missouri. March 2021 Corn Bids 6.10 6.05 6.00 5.95 5.90 5.85 5.80 5.75 5.70 5.65 5.60 5.55 5.50 5.45 5.40 5.35 5.30 5.25 5.20 - KaoS1sCity - st.Louis - cmtral South Ea st Barge The average March corn bid in Missouri was 5.63, 0.04 higher than February’s average corn bid. Statewide, corn bids ranged from 0.01 lower to 0.08 higher than last month’s averages. Compared to March 2020, this month’s corn bids were 1.82 to 2.05 higher, with the combined average 1.93 higher than a year ago. Area average corn bids closed on March 31 from 0.20 to 0.45 higher, when compared to March 1.