Getting started by Dixie Sommers I n almost anything you do, you’re more likely to suc- Monthly Labor Review includes more detailed descriptions ceed if you have a plan. Deciding on a career is no of the data, analysis, and methods BLS uses in the projec- exception. tions. (For details about these and related publications, see If you’re making a decision about education, train- the list on page 49.) ing, or a career—or if you are helping someone else who Total employment is projected to reach 166 million by is making such decisions—you need to know how the 2018, reflecting the addition of about 15 million new jobs labor market is expected to unfold in the future. How between 2008 and 2018. Behind this total employment many jobs are likely to be available in the career you projection are trends and major findings depicted in charts want? How much will they pay? What kind of training for four areas: occupations, the labor force, industries, and will you need? the overall economy. Projections and related information from the U.S. Occupations Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) provide the answers to these questions. In a changing economy, these projec-  Among all occupational groups, the professional tions help you to glimpse the future—and to plan for it. and related occupations group and the service occupations This special issue of the Occupational Outlook group are expected to gain the most new jobs and produce Quarterly provides a graphic summary of the latest pro- the largest numbers of job openings. (See page 10.) jections, those covering the decade from 2008 to 2018.  Within the professional and related occupations We also invite readers to examine our detailed profiles group, healthcare practitioner and technical occupations of occupations in the 2010–11 Occupational Outlook are projected to gain the most jobs, about 1.6 million. Handbook and of industries in the 2010–11 Career Education, training, and library occupations are projected Guide to Industries. The November 2009 issue of the to gain more than 1.3 million jobs. (See page 11.) Dixie Sommers is the Assistant Commissioner of the Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections, BLS, (202) 691-5701. 2 Occupational Outlook Quarterly • Winter 2009–10 Defining the sections  Registered nurses, home health the labor force in younger age groups is The charts project 2008–18 aides, and customer service representa- expected to either decline or increase at changes in occupational employ- tives are expected to gain the most new much slower rates. (See page 32.) ment, the labor force, industry jobs. Registered nurses will add more than  The labor force will continue to employment, and the overall half a million jobs. (See page 13.) become more diverse. The share of the  Most job openings for workers labor force that is Asian, black, or in other economy. You will get the most entering an occupation come from the non-white race groups is expected to out of the charts if you under- need to replace workers who have left the increase to 21 percent, up from 19 percent stand how BLS defines these occupation, rather than from the need to a decade earlier. And Hispanics are ex- areas. fill newly created jobs. The 20 occupations pected to constitute 18 percent of the labor “Occupation” is a way of that are expected to have the most open- force in 2018, up from 14 percent in 2008. classifying jobs according to the ings from growth and replacement include (See pages 34 and 36.) jobs in a variety of fields, such as office type of work performed. People Industries support, sales, and service occupations. who supervise children are in the (See page 14.)  Job growth over the 2008–18 occupation of child care worker,  The 20 occupations expected to decade will be concentrated in service- for example. have the most openings also range widely providing industries. In 2018, service-pro- “Industry,” on the other in median annual wages, from more than viding industries are expected to account $91,000 for general and operations man- for 131 million out of 154 million wage hand, is a way of classifying jobs agers to nearly $59,000 for postsecondary and salary jobs overall. (See page 38.) and businesses according to the teachers to less than $17,000 for waiters  The professional and business type of good produced or service and waitresses. (See page 14.) services sector is projected to gain the provided. For example, any job  Job openings are expected in most new jobs, nearly 4.2 million. Two in a child daycare center—from occupations that require every level of sectors—health care and social assistance education and training. But, in general, and professional and business services— child care worker to cook—is workers in occupations with higher educa- are each projected to grow 24 percent over classified as part of the child tion and training requirements earn higher the decade, the fastest rate for all sectors. daycare services industry. wages. (See pages 15–27.) (See pages 40 and 41.) “Labor force” is a measure of  Among goods-producing indus- The labor force the number of people avail- tries, construction is projected to gain able for work. It includes both  By 2018, the number of people in about 1.3 million jobs from 2008 to 2018. the labor force—those working or look- Some of this growth will be recovering individuals who are employed ing for work—is expected to increase by jobs lost between 2006 and 2008, how- and those who are unemployed nearly 13 million people between 2008 ever. Employment is expected to decline in (those not working but actively and 2018. This is a smaller gain than the manufacturing and natural resources and looking for a job). nearly 17 million people added to the la- mining, the other goods-producing sectors. “Overall economy” includes bor force during the previous decade. (See (See page 40.) page 30.)  Among detailed industries, the several concepts. The most  As the baby-boom generation management, scientific, and technical important is the value of final ages, the number of people in the labor consulting services industry is projected to goods produced and services force aged 65 and older is projected to be the fastest growing. It is also expected provided, which is known as the grow very rapidly, by 78 percent over to provide the most new jobs. (See pages gross domestic product, or GDP. the projections decade. At the same time, 42 and 43.) (Continued on page 5) Winter 2009–10 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly 3 Reading the charts The charts provide graphic answers to some basic questions about more than 30 times as many new jobs are projected for office clerks employment: How many new jobs there will be, how fast the num- as for financial examiners between 2008 and 2018. ber of jobs is changing, and how many job openings will be available Percent change tells a different story. As the chart at lower left for new entrants to the labor force. shows, employment of financial examiners is expected to grow more How many new jobs there will be. Charts that show than 3 times as fast as that of general office clerks—even though numeric change illustrate how many new jobs there will be (the financial examiners are projected to gain fewer jobs. actual number of jobs gained or lost over the projections decade). How many job openings there will be. Some charts go In general, the occupations and industries with the greatest numeric beyond showing the expected change in the total number of jobs increases are those that already have large numbers of workers. and show how many job openings are expected for workers who are How fast the number of jobs is changing. Charts show- new to an occupation. Job openings for workers new to an occupa- ing percent change illustrate how fast the number of jobs is changing tion include not only openings from growth in the number of jobs (the rate of job growth or decline during the decade). The fastest but also openings from the need to replace workers who retire or rates of growth are usually found in occupations and industries that leave an occupation permanently for some other reason. The chart have fewer workers. below at right shows how many job openings for general office Fast growth does not always mean many new jobs. See, for example, the charts below. They show the projected increase in clerks are expected to result from job growth and how many are employment for general office clerks compared with that for finan- expected to result from the need to replace existing clerks who leave cial examiners. In numeric terms, as shown in the chart at upper left, the occupation. Numeric employment growth in two occupations, projected 2008–18 (Thousands of jobs) Financial examiners 11 Office clerks, general 359 Job openings for office clerks, projected 2008–18 (Thousands of job openings) Openings from job growth Office clerks, general 359 412 771 Percent employment growth in two occupations, Openings from replacement needs projected 2008–18 Financial examiners 41% Office clerks, general 12 4 Occu4pa tOioccnuapl aOtuiotlnoaolk O Quutlaorotke rQlyu a•r Wteirnltye •r 2W0i0n9te-1r0 2009–10 (Continued from page 3) Overall economy depict how employment in each of nearly 300 industries is distributed across more than 700 occupations. (For the  Personal consumption expenditures on goods are 2008–18 projections, we used 2008 employment data.) projected to grow an average of 2.3 percent each year We analyze how this distribution is likely to change over between 2008 and 2018. The largest growth in personal the decade by studying trends in technology, changing consumption expenditures on goods is expected to be for skill requirements, and other factors. Using this analysis computers and software. (See page 48). along with the survey data and our industry employment  Personal consumption expenditures on services projections, we project employment by occupation—in are projected to increase by 2.6 percent annually. Spend- this set of projections, for 2018. ing on medical care and insurance services will add the Our projection methods are based on the fact that most to expenditures on services. (See page 48.) employment trends in most occupations are closely How we develop the tied to the trends in particular industries. For example, in 2008, about 60 percent of registered nurses worked BLS projections in hospitals. So an increase in the demand for hospital services between 2008 and 2018 will increase the need BLS economists in the Office of Occupational Statistics for these workers. Based on changes in demand, we and Employment Projections develop the projections in project that the real output of the hospital industry will a number of steps, first analyzing broad trends and then increase over the decade, and about 274,000 more reg- examining several hundred industries and occupations. istered nurses will be needed in hospitals to provide this We begin with how much the U.S. population and output. As a result, this industry is projected to account labor force are expected to grow over the next 10 years. for about 47 percent of the roughly 582,000 new jobs for We use population projections from the U.S. Census registered nurses. Bureau, which take into account trends in births, deaths, and immigration. We combine the population projections A note about the economy with our own estimates of what portion of the population in 2008 will be in the labor force, based on historical trends for each age, gender, and race or ethnic group. The result is Our usual practice is to prepare new projections every a projection of the labor force—the total supply of work- ers to the future economy. other year, with the base year of the projections period We then create a model of an economy that is oper- being an even-numbered year. For this set of projections, ating at full potential, given the labor force and several the base year, 2008, happens to be during a significant other factors. Using this framework, we estimate the downturn in the U.S. economy. Total employment of dollar value of each industry’s total output of goods or wage and salary workers fell by 532,000 between 2007 services. Some of this output is used by other industries; and 2008, and it continued to fall in 2009. The construc- for example, steel is used in making cars. Other output— tion, manufacturing, and financial activities industry such as the cars themselves or the repair services for sectors, along with occupations that are concentrated in maintaining them—is sold directly to consumers. these industries, were hit particularly hard. We also study trends in productivity—the amount of When developing long-term projections, however, output produced per worker—and use this information to our focus is on long-term trends in population, labor translate projected output into the number of jobs needed force, productivity, and output growth. The population in each industry to produce these goods and provide and the labor force have been aging and their growth these services. rates slowing. These long-term trends are expected to Next, we project how the jobs in each industry continue, regardless of the fluctuations in the economy. will be distributed by occupation. To do this, we make Readers should keep in mind, however, that the projected extensive use of the BLS Occupational Employment changes in employment between 2008 and 2018 usu- Statistics survey, as well as of information from other ally include regaining jobs that have been lost during the sources for sectors that are not covered by the survey, to downturn. Winter 2009–10 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly 5