2017 NMC Technology Outlook > Nordic Schools at a Glance Key Trends Accelerating Technology Adoption in Nordic Schools 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Short-Term Driving technology adoption in Nordic schools over the next one to two years Expansion of Digital Tests Rise of STEAM Learning Students as Creators Mid-Term Driving technology adoption in Nordic schools over the next three to five years Blended Learning Designs Coding as a Literacy Redesigning Learning Spaces Long-Term Driving technology adoption in Nordic schools for five or more years Advancing Cultures of Innovation Changes in Methods of Assessment Rethinking How Schools Work Significant Challenges Impeding Technology Adoption in Nordic Schools Solvable Those which we both understand and know how to solve Blending Formal and Informal Learning Gaps Between Technology and Pedagogy Integrating Technology in Teacher Education Difficult Those we understand but for which solutions are elusive Advancing Digital Equity Balancing Connected and Unconnected Life Major Changes in School Culture and Infrastructure Wicked Those that are complex to even define, much less address Achievement Gap Creating Systemic Policy and Synergies for Better Learning Teaching Complex Thinking Important Developments in Educational Technology for Nordic Schools 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Time-to-Adoption Time-to-Adoption Time-to-Adoption Horizon: One Year Horizon: Two to Horizon: Four to or Less Three Years Five Years 3D Printing Adaptive Learning Technologies Speech-to-Speech Translation Games and Gamification Artificial Intelligence Virtual and Remote Laboratories Makerspaces Mixed Reality Virtual Assistants Mobile Learning Robotics Wearable Technology Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ 2017 NMC Technology Outlook for Nordic Schools A Horizon Project Regional Report Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 Key Trends Accelerating Technology Adoption ................................................................................................... 5 Significant Challenges Impeding Technology Adoption ......................................................................... 7 Time-to-Adoption Horizon: One Year or Less § 3D Printing .............................................................................................................................................................. 9 § Games and Gamification ............................................................................................................................. 10 § Makerspaces ....................................................................................................................................................... 11 § Mobile Learning ................................................................................................................................................ 12 Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Two to Three Years § Adaptive Learning Technologies ............................................................................................................. 13 § Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning ............................................................................................. 14 § Mixed Reality ...................................................................................................................................................... 15 § Robotics ................................................................................................................................................................. 16 Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Four to Five Years § Speech-to-Speech Translation .................................................................................................................. 17 § Virtual and Remote Laboratories ............................................................................................................ 18 § Virtual Assistants ............................................................................................................................................. 19 § Wearable Technology ........................................................................................................................ 20 Methodology .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 21 2017 Horizon Project Nordic Expert Panel .............................................................................................................. 23 E nd Notes ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 24 An NMC Horizon Project Regional Report 2017 NMC Technology Outlook for Nordic Schools A Horizon Project Regional Report is a collaboration between The New Media Consortium and The Norwegian Centre for ICT in Education © 2017, The New Media Consortium. Creative Commons License Permission is granted under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License to replicate, copy, distribute, transmit, or adapt this report freely provided that attribution is provided as illustrated in the citation below. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. Citation Adams Becker, S., Cummins, M., Freeman, A., and Rose, K. (2017). 2017 NMC Technology Outlook for Nordic Schools: A Horizon Project Regional Report. Austin, Texas: The New Media Consortium. Cover image courtesy of BigStock Photography 978-0-9977215-9-1 An NMC Horizon Project Regional Report Executive Summary Executive Summary The 2017 NMC Technology Outlook for Nordic Schools: A Horizon Project Regional Report reflects a collaborative research effort between the New Media Consortium (NMC) and the Norwegian Centre for ICT in Education to inform Nordic school leaders and decision-makers about significant developments in technologies supporting teaching, learning, and creative inquiry in primary and secondary education across Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. All of the research underpinning the report makes use of the NMC’s Delphi-based process for bringing groups of experts to a consensus viewpoint, in this case around the impact of emerging technologies on teaching, learning, or creative inquiry in Nordic schools over the next five years. The same process underlies the well-known NMC Horizon Report series, which is the most visible product of an on-going research effort begun more than 15 years ago to systematically identify and describe emerging technologies likely to have a large impact on education around the globe. The 2017 NMC Technology Outlook for Nordic Schools was produced to explore emerging developments in technology and forecast their potential impact expressly in a Nordic school context. In the effort that took place from October through December 2016, a carefully selected panel of experts was asked to consider a host of relevant articles, news, blog posts, research, and project examples as part of the preparation that ultimately pinpointed the most notable technology topics, trends, and challenges for Nordic schools over the next five years. Known as the 2017 Horizon Project Nordic Expert Panel, that group of thought leaders consists of knowledgeable individuals, all highly regarded in their fields. Collectively, the panel represents a range of diverse perspectives across the primary and secondary education sector. The project has been conducted under an open data philosophy, and all the interim projects, secondary research, discussions, and ranking instrumentation can be viewed at nordic.wiki.nmc.org. The precise research methodology employed in producing the report is detailed in a special section found at the end of this report. Nine key trends, nine significant challenges, and twelve important developments in technology were identified by the expert panel. The trends and challenges are intended to frame technology adoption in terms of the positive paradigm shifts advancing it and the obstacles impeding it. These influential discussions acknowledge that technology by itself is not a sufficient solution but instead an enabler of more effective teaching and learning approaches. Technology use must be grounded in progressive pedagogies and models that foster greater student engagement and performance. Both the trends and the challenges are placed into horizons; the trends range from long- to short-term while the challenges are classified by scope of difficulty. Following the discussion of the trends and challenges, each of the twelve developments in technology are profiled on a single page that describes the topic and categorises it as very important for Nordic schools over the next year, two to three years, or four to five years. Every page opens with a carefully crafted definition of the highlighted development, outlines its educational relevance, points to several real-life examples of its current use, and ends with a short list of additional readings for those who wish to learn more. Taken together, the three key sections of this report constitute a reference and straightforward technology-planning guide for educators, school leaders, administrators, policymakers, and technologists. It is our hope that this research will inform the choices that schools are making about technology to improve, support, or extend teaching, learning, and creative inquiry in Nordic countries. Education stakeholders worldwide look to the NMC Horizon Project and both its global and regional reports as key strategic technology planning references, and it is for that purpose that the 2017 NMC Technology Outlook for Nordic Schools is presented. © 2017, NMC An NMC Horizon Project Regional Report Page 1 Introduction Introduction What is on the five-year horizon for schools in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden? Which trends and technology developments will drive real transformation in primary and secondary education? What are the critical challenges for which solutions are needed? These questions regarding technology adoption and educational change steered the discussions of a body of 53 experts to produce the 2017 NMC Technology Outlook for Nordic Schools. Nine key trends, nine significant challenges, and twelve developments in educational technology profiled in this report are poised to impact Nordic schools. The topics converge in ways that tell a larger story about the state of teaching and learning in the region. These top five highlights capture the big picture themes of educational change that underpin the 30 topics: 1. Advancing progressive learning approaches requires cultural transformation. Nordic schools must be structured to promote the exchange of fresh ideas and identify successful models within and outside of schools — with student success at the centre. Embracing evidence-based approaches to technology deployment, aligned with pedagogy, can impart greater digital fluency. 2. Real-world skills are needed to deepen learning outcomes, better preparing students for university and the workforce. The advent of makerspaces, classroom configurations that enable active learning, and the inclusion of coding and robotics are providing students with ample opportunities to create, iterate, and experiment in ways that spur complex thinking. 3. Lifelong learning is the lifeblood of education. Progressive teaching approaches that creatively incorporate technology can foster long-term learning habits for students. Teachers require the same level of care; ongoing training and the integration of digital contexts in initial teacher education programmes is critical for closing chasms between technology and pedagogy. 4. Online, mobile, and blended learning are foregone conclusions. If Nordic schools do not already have robust strategies for integrating these now pervasive approaches, then they will not remain relevant. An important step is tracking how these models are enriching learning outcomes. 5. More engaging learning experiences and personalisation are on the rise. The goal of technologies like 3D printing, games and gamification, and mixed reality is to provide stimulating activities that immerse students in a variety of creative learning contexts. Concurrently, adaptive learning platforms, powered by the latest artificial intelligence technologies, can deliver content tailored to each student’s specific needs, better illuminating strengths and areas for improvement. The work of the 2017 Horizon Project Nordic Expert Panel acknowledges that technology adoption in schools across the region can be both accelerated by the recognition of and hampered by the complexities of these themes. A comparison between the 2017 panel and the 2015 Scandinavian Panel illuminates progress or stalling in some areas. Additionally, it is important to look beyond the unique context of Nordic primary and secondary education to view how technology-driven trends and challenges are impacting the rest of the world. As such, the top three most highly ranked trends and challenges from three reports are included in the related tables in this summary, and are organised by categories described in the next sections of this report. The tables illustrate the choices of the Nordic experts compared with those who contributed to the NMC/CoSN Horizon Report > 2016 K-12 Edition, which looked at technology uptake from a global perspective, and the 2015 NMC Technology Outlook for Scandinavian Schools with perspectives on technology impact in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden — an appropriate benchmark for progress in the Nordic region. Altogether, the three reports encompass a group of 159 acknowledged experts. © 2015, NMC An NMC Horizon Project Regional Report Page 2 Introduction Table 1: Top-Ranked Trends Across Three NMC Horizon Research Projects 2015 Technology Outlook for 2017 Technology Outlook for NMC/CoSN Horizon Report Scandinavian Schools Nordic Schools 2016 K-12 Edition Long-Term Trend Growth of New Professions Rethinking How Schools Work Redesigning Learning Spaces Entering Schools Mid-Term Trend Data-Driven Learning and Coding as a Literacy Collaborative Learning Assessment Short-Term Trend Expansion of Digital Tests Students as Creators Coding as a Literacy A shown in Table 1, the top priorities of the Nordic panel have evolved from those of the 2015 Scandinavian panel. Nordic experts viewed rethinking how schools work as the most significant long-term trend, reflecting a gradual movement towards reinventing traditional classroom paradigms to embrace more active learning and the cultivation of real-world skills. This is evident in the Norwegian Ministry of Education and Research’s Knowledge Promotion Reform, a proposal to refresh current subjects taught in school to foster more opportunities for in-depth learning.1 Additionally, students as creators was identified as a top trend, a concept embraced by the other panels but prioritised higher by the Nordic panel. Its short-term horizon placement indicates that new developments in this area are taking hold — often documented informally. For example, an 8th grade biology teacher in Sweden discusses his decision to end testing and instead have students demonstrate complex concepts by creating 3D visualisations to teach the material to 4th and 5th year students.2 While the global expert panel perceived coding as a short-term trend — one that has only recently emerged — programming has been a part of government agendas and school curricula in Nordic countries in recent years. In 2016, coding became a core part of the Finnish curriculum, beginning in year one of primary school.3, 4 The 2017 Nordic experts also agree that technology adoption is often hindered by both local and systemic challenges that make it difficult to discover and implement new tools and approaches. Table 2: Top-Ranked Challenges Across Three NMC Horizon Research Projects 2015 Technology Outlook for 2017 Technology Outlook for NMC/CoSN Horizon Report Scandinavian Schools Nordic Schools 2016 K-12 Edition Solvable Challenge Integrating Technology in Integrating Technology in Authentic Learning Teacher Education Teacher Education Difficult Challenge Implementing Knowledge from Advancing Digital Equity Scaling Teaching Innovations Other Parts of Society Wicked Challenge Systemic Policy and Synergies for Systemic Policy and Synergies for Achievement Gap Better Learning Better Learning © 2017, NMC An NMC Horizon Project Regional Report Page 3 Introduction As noted in Table 2, above, both the Nordic and Scandinavian panels agreed that increasing the digital fluency of teachers is daunting, but remains a solvable challenge as initial teacher education programmes address ICT integration, along with ongoing professional development. The Danish Ministry of Education serves as an exemplar in solving this challenge as part of its initiative to advance ICT at primary and secondary schools through better access to technology for teaching and establishing clear goals for the use of digital learning resources.5 The 2017 Nordic panel emphasises the need to narrow the digital divide, acknowledging that although technology and high-speed broadband is more pervasive, not all teachers and students have equal access. As Bring Your Own Device strategies have spread throughout the region, not every household is equipped with sufficient internet access or can afford the latest gadgets. Systemic policy and synergies for better learning was originally proposed as a new topic by the 2015 Scandinavian panel, and its complexities make it a persistent challenge that has been elusive to articulate, let alone solve. There is a disconnect between digital competence policies and implementation, ultimately causing a lack of technology savvy among teachers and students. Fuelled by the key trends and impeded by significant challenges selected by the panel, the 12 important developments in technology presented in the body of this report reflect our experts’ opinions as to which of the nearly 50 technologies considered will be most important to Nordic schools over the five years following the publication of the report. Table 3: Comparison of “Final 12” Topics Across Three NMC Horizon Research Projects 2015 Technology Outlook for 2017 Technology Outlook for NMC Horizon Report Scandinavian Schools Nordic Schools 2016 K-12 Edition Time-to-Adoption Horizon: One Year or Less Bring Your Own Device 3D Printing Bring Your Own Device Cloud Computing Games and Gamification Cloud Computing Flipped Classroom Makerspaces Makerspaces Games and Gamification Mobile Learning Online Learning Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Two to Three Years Learning Analytics Adaptive Learning Technologies 3D Printing Makerspaces Artificial Intelligence Adaptive Learning Technologies Open Content Mixed Reality Robotics Social Networks Robotics Virtual Reality Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Four to Five Years The Internet of Things Speech-to-Speech Translation Artificial Intelligence Robotics and Programming Virtual and Remote Laboratories Next-Generation Batteries Speech-to-Speech Translation Virtual Assistants Volumetric/Holographic Displays Wearable Technology Wearable Technology Wearable Technology As reflected in the collective choices above, Nordic schools are ahead of the global curve in the exploration and integration of many emerging technologies. Nordic experts viewed 3D printing as imminently poised for mainstream adoption with artificial intelligence only a maximum of three years away. In no circumstances were the Nordic developments positioned on farther horizons than that of the Scandinavian or global panels. Unique to the Nordic panel’s selection was mixed reality — the blending of augmented reality with the physical realm — as well as virtual assistants, which have elevated in sophistication thanks to greater artificial intelligence and far-field microphones that no longer rely on users speaking directly into their smartphones. These points and comparisons provide an important context for the main body of the report that follows. © 2017, NMC An NMC Horizon Project Regional Report Page 4 Key Trends Key Trends Accelerating Technology Adoption The developments in technology featured in the NMC Horizon Project are embedded within a contemporary context that reflects the realities of the time, both in the sphere of education and in the world at large. To assure this perspective, each panel member has researched, identified, and ranked key trends that are currently affecting teaching, learning, and creative inquiry in Nordic schools, and used these as a lens for the work of predicting the uptake of emerging technologies. These nine trends, which the panel agreed are very likely to drive technology planning and decision-making over the next five years, are sorted into three time-related categories: short-term trends that will last for the next one to two years and are bound to become pervasive in schools, and two categories of slower trends that are growing more incrementally in Nordic schools. Short-Term Trends Driving technology adoption in Nordic schools over the next one to two years Expansion of Digital Tests. As teachers and schools are increasingly making learning activities available online, it is a natural next step for more formal assessments to be digitised. In Denmark and Norway, national summative exams are now taking place online and the government has plans to expand these efforts to other types of tests. The Norwegian Directorate for Education and Training provides the virtual testing environment in Norway, but the use of learning management systems for other types of assessment varies. The Future Tests and Test Environments conference in Sweden stressed that this global trend towards digital test environments makes test administration, scoring, and reporting more effective and secure.6 Rise of STEAM Learning. In recent years, there has been a growing emphasis on developing stronger science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) curriculum and programmes, as these disciplines are widely viewed as the means to boost innovation and bolster national economies. As a response to the focus on STEM learning at schools, some education leaders believe there is the need for a more balanced curriculum that integrates disciplines such as the arts, design, and humanities into the sciences. This notion has fostered the STEAM learning movement, in which the A stands for “art+.” An Icelandic thought leader, for example, is piloting a STEAM learning workshop using Bjork’s artwork “Biophilia” to teach multimodal literacies.7 Students as Creators. A shift is taking place in schools as learners are exploring subject matter through the act of creation rather than the consumption of content. A vast array of digital tools is available to support this transformation in primary and secondary education, giving rise to an increasing level of comfort with producing media. Many educators believe that honing these kinds of creative skills in learners can lead to deeply engaging learning experiences in which students become the authorities on subjects through investigation, storytelling, and production. The recent addition of a makerspace at Hultsfred gymnasium in Sweden fosters opportunities for students in math, science, and language to engage in more creative and hands-on activities in school.8 In the School of the Future project, 85 Danish elementary school students piloted a digitally-enriched environment where all regular lessons were replaced with workshops and cross-disciplinary project work, involving programming, fabrication technologies and media production.9 Mid-Term Trends Driving technology adoption in Nordic schools over the next three to five years Blended Learning Designs. Drawing from best practices in online and face-to-face methods, blended learning is on the rise at Nordic schools. Flexibility, ease of access, and the integration of sophisticated multimedia and technologies are high among the list of appeals. At Copenhagen's Ørestad Gymnasium, for example, students work together with computers and tablets in large groups for most of the day, with teacher-guided instruction for the remainder.10 Many lower © 2015, NMC An NMC Horizon Project Regional Report Page 5 Key Trends secondary schools in Denmark have developed 1:1 programmes, where every student has access to his or her own internet-connected device; as a result, these students performed better on an international comparative study of computer and information literacy.11 Coding as a Literacy. Coding refers to a set of rules that computers understand and can take the form of numerous languages, such as HTML, JavaScript, and PHP. Many educators perceive coding to stimulate computational thinking: the skills required to learn coding combine deep computer science knowledge with creativity and problem-solving. Code.org recently projected that by 2020, there will be 1.4 million computing jobs but only 400,000 computer science students to fill them. To better prepare learners from a young age, an increasing number of school leaders and technologists are making the case for embedding coding into primary and secondary education curricula. To this end, Finland is making coding a part of the country’s core curriculum.12 Redesigning Learning Spaces. As conventional teaching models evolve and emerging technologies gain a solid foothold in Nordic classrooms, formal learning environments require an upgrade to reflect the 21st century practices taking place in them. Today, student-centric pedagogies are being embraced to better equip learners with real-world skills, and new approaches to classroom design are supporting this shift. Additionally, innovative thinking in architecture is influencing the sustainable design and construction of new school infrastructures that have the potential to significantly impact classroom practices and student learning, such as the Powerhouse Drøbak Montessori lower secondary school in Norway which is designed to strengthen students’ understanding of the relationship between man and nature.13 Long-Term Trends Driving technology adoption in Nordic schools for five or more years Advancing Cultures of Innovation. Nordic thought leaders have long believed that schools can play a major role in the growth of their national economies. To breed innovation and adapt to economic needs, schools must be structured in ways that allow for flexibility and spur creativity. This notion is exemplified in Sweden, where despite having lower PISA scores than their Nordic neighbouring countries, entrepreneurship is well integrated into upper secondary school.14 The importance of this activity is acknowledged by the World Economic Forum, which publishes a global competitiveness index every year that considers creativity and innovation as contributing factors; Sweden is ranked the sixth most competitive country for this reason.15 Changes in Methods of Assessment. The emphasis of assessment is in the midst of transitioning from evaluating what has been learned to evaluating the process of learning as a whole. Nordic schools are now focused on continuous assessment based on dialogue, rather than summative tests and exams, complemented by self- and peer assessments. The ultimate objective is to nurture self-regulated learners who can set their own learning goals and work towards them independently.16 The Norwegian government’s “Schools of Tomorrow” report proposes more freedom for students to delve deeper into content areas, rather than relying on tests that superficially cover too wide of a range of subjects.17 New tools are also being developed to support and document online dialogue and self-assessment such as the Write to Learn method in Sweden, which provides students real-time formative feedback on their writing.18 Rethinking How Schools Work. There is a focused movement to reinvent the traditional classroom paradigm and rearrange the entire school experience — a trend that is largely being driven by the influence of innovative learning approaches. Changing school culture is one of Finland’s four curriculum reform areas, calling for a renewal of pedagogies, learning environments, and assessment.19 The multidisciplinary nature of contemporary approaches such as project-based and immersive learning has popularised creative applications of technology and fostered innovative school models that link subject matter to the real world. © 2017, NMC An NMC Horizon Project Regional Report Page 6