Pilot study 3 eport Adaptation in water and coastal areas in Puglia, Italy Contents 1 Introduction 1 2 Rationale and objectives 3 3. Pilot area description 4 3.1 Characteristics, hazards and vulnerabilities 4 3.2 Status of climate adaptation initiatives in Puglia 6 4. Methodology description 8 4.1 Module 1 - Climate projections 11 4.2 Module 2 - Sea Level projections 11 4.3 Module 3 - Drought scenarios 11 4.4 Modules 4 and 5 - Risk assessment for agriculture and coastal areas 11 5 Results 14 6 Stakeholder participation 19 7 Interactions among Thematic Center Pilots 21 8 Translating results into actions 22 Annex A.1 23 Annex A.2 26 Annex A.3 31 Annex A.4 35 Annex A.5 39 Annex A.6 43 References 44 Owner and Editor Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici www.cmcc.it Authors This report was prepared by a CMCC team led by Monia Santini, Silvia Torresan and Antonio Trabucco, and including as collaborators (in alphabetical order): Donata Balzarolo, Antonio Bonaduce, Giovanni Coppini, Andrea Critto, Valentina dell'Aquila, Maria De Salvo, Elisa Furlan, Giulia Galluccio, Federica Gobattoni, Antonio Marcomini, Sergio Marconi, Paola Mercogliano, Valentina Mereu, Myriam Montesarchio, Jaroslav Mysiak, Alessandra Nuzzo, Jonathan Rizzi, Paolo Ronco, Silvia Santato, Donatella Spano, Anna Sperotto, Federica Zennaro, Alessandra Lucia Zollo. Aknowledgements The study team wishes to thank the Regional Government of Puglia and its Mediterranean Service (Servizio Mediterraneo della Regione Puglia), associated partner of the OrientGate project, for their extensive cooperation during the implementation of the study. The study team also wishes to thank the following for their support, access to data, and feedbacks: Regional Government of Puglia - Civil Protection Service (Protezione Civile della Regione Puglia) and Agrometeorological Service (Servizio Agrometeorologico Regione Puglia); the Environmental Regional Protection Agency of Puglia (ARPA Puglia); the River Basin Authority of Puglia (Autorità di Bacino della Puglia); and the Land Reclamation and Irrigation Consortia of Capitanata, Terre d’Apulia, and Stornara e Tara. 2 2 Introduction It is widely recognized that the global warming caused by the increasing presence of GHGs in the atmosphere is also leading to changes in rainfall patterns, sea levels Photo: G. Galluccio and the frequency of extreme hydro-meteorological events The Pilot Study “Climate change Vulnerability to climate hazards also (e.g. heat waves, droughts, heavy adaptation in new water regime affects coastal zones where one rains, storms). These changes are in Puglia region” of the Thematic can find many sectors such as known to influence ecosystems, Centre on Drought, Water and tourism and fishery that are strategic human activities and communities in Coasts, was formulated to for the socio-economic areas ranging from inland to coastal provide tools and guidelines development of the region. territories, with effects that overlap for local and regional authorities with those due to population to assess vulnerabilities and risks Risks, derived from the combination increase, habitat modification, posed by climate change and of hazards, exposure and overexploitation of natural related extreme events (with vulnerability (IPCC 2014) are even resources, alteration of biodiversity a focus on droughts). The aim higher over such a vulnerable and decline of water flows and was to support the improvement territory when exposed to the quality. of planning for the integrated negative consequences of additional management of water resources climate-related hazards, like sea level Several studies have agreed that the and coastal zones, by providing rise, soil erosion, floods, fires, Mediterranean Basin is a climate scientific information which groundwater depletion and salt change hotspot (Diffenbaugh and is both sound and updated water intrusion into aquifers. Giorgi 2012; Giorgi 2006), with in regard to expected climate Therefore, it becomes increasingly warming expected to be higher than terrestrial and marine hazards, important to develop approaches the global average and mostly and consequent impacts on and methodologies that are concentrated in summer (Giorgi and domestic water supply, integrated, holistic, cross-sectoral Lionello 2008). IPCC (2013) mentions agriculture and coasts. and adaptive in order to efficiently very likely1increase in temperature support decision makers in the throughout the 21stcentury, and also The region of Puglia was chosen in design and formulation of adaptation very likelyincrease of the number of order to build on CMCC’s previous strategy plans which include climate warm days and nights, and decrease experiences and collaborations with change impact assessments. of the number of cold days and local authorities, and since Puglia’s In the following paragraphs, details nights.Even though there is high level territory well reflects typical on the Pilot Study’s implementation of uncertainty in predicting conditions of the Mediterranean are provided, about objectives and precipitation, there are signals region. In fact Puglia is exposed to methodologies formulated which for a future decrease of the annual hydro-climatic hazards associated have been tailored and applied to precipitation amount, coupled especially to increasing the territory of Puglia, and about with an increase in the intensity and temperatures, heat waves and results achieved. Finally, the method frequency of rainfall extreme events droughts, which affect widely socio- by which results can be (Garcia-Herrera et al. 2014; Giorgi economic sectors competing for communicated and included in 2006; IPCC 2013). Although the sea water resources. Vulnerability level in the Mediterranean did not concerns a region largely engaged planning for climate change change or even decreased in the in agricultural production, and also adaptation is summarized into key recent past (Ramieri et al. 2011), highly dependent on the surrounding messages and recommendations for a rise in the global mean sea level regions for water resources stakeholders and decision makers. will allow the regional sea level (SOGESID 2009) that are crucial in the Mediterranean to harmonize in order to sustain irrigation as well 1The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC 2013; with the global trend, as projected as domestic water supply, ecological 2014) defines likelihood as the probability of an in CIRCE project simulations function and lastly industrial and event or outcome occurring. Very likely is used for an event or outcome having more than 90% (Gualdi et al. 2013). energy purposes. probability to occur. 1 Photo: G. Galluccio Rationale The Pilot Study in Puglia was 5)Providing a comprehensive view conceived in order to address the of the cascading phenomena that and need of including climate adaptation could be triggered by climate change, into planning, by concentrating on ranging from their physical impacts the step of vulnerability and risk and processes to the evaluation of objectives assessment, in order to then foster vulnerability of interacting systems, the execution of successive steps sectors and resources, in order to concerning communication of quantify the risk. climate trends, impacts, vulnerabilities and risks, and their 6)Synthetizing results into consideration by decision makers. quantitative indicators, formulated Proper vulnerability and risk also thanks to stakeholder assessment was thus intended as a consultation, for a concise and mixture of a bottom-up approach realistic description and (based on dialogue with communication of the climate stakeholders) and a top-down change challenges that affect approach (based on indicators), the addressed systems, sectors and has been implemented by and resources. following some specific objectives: Once vulnerabilities and risks under 1)Involving stakeholders at an earlier climate change are identified and stage of the analysis to map their communicated, needs and goals can Given the increasing concern in existing degree of awareness of be identified to support Puglia for climate change, its climate change and its impacts, their a “mainstreaming”2process for extremes and consequences, there is current capacity in governance to funding, implementing and testing an urgent need to integrate address these issues, their of the adaptation measures. adaptation to climate change as part requirements to understand and be of the traditional water and coast updated on expected trends, and (and other territorial) management the degree of climate change and protection plans. The integration consideration existing in the decision process should follow for example making processes. the Integrated Coastal Zone Management policy cycle which is 2)Identifying priority areas for often used by coastal practitioners adaptation in terms of sectors, and includes five specific steps: 1) systems and resources exposed to vulnerability assessment; 2) planning climate change and variability: and selection of a course of action; priorities should be selected through 3) formal adoption of adaptation an on-going, iterative and inclusive actions; 4) implementation; and 5) process of consultation with evaluation (USAID 2009). One of the stakeholders’ groups and decision key points of this approach is that makers. the process of planning is gradually rather than radically changed by the 3)Reviewing historical records to introduction of the climate change reconstruct climate variability, component. In addition the Risk hazardous events and their Governance Framework (IRGC 2005) consequences, and to validate the and the Climate Risk Management area of interest’s climate projections framework (Martinez et al. 2012), representative of a range of medium both emphasizing the key role of to long-term outlooks. “communication”, could also be helpful if enlarged to cover not only 4)Converting each climate disaster risk management but also projection into the quantification of 2 In the context of climate policies, mainstreaming means integrating climate concerns and adaptation adaptation, since adaptation should biophysical and socio-economic responses into relevant policies, plans, programs be understood as a precautionary impacts and risks, by exploiting and projects at national, sub-national, and local scales, better if cross-cutting multiple sectors, risk avoidance or minimization state-of-the-art and well without allowing adaptation to get lost among strategy. consolidated procedures. many other competing priorities. 3 Pilot area 17°C, while mean annual population of Puglia is above 4 precipitation varies from 400 mm million (ISTAT 2011) with an description to 1300 mm with 600 mm being the increasing, even if decelerating, approximate average. The region’s trend maintained during the whole climate can be defined from arid of the last century. The economy sub-humid to arid according to of Puglia is characterized by an 3.1CHARACTERISTICS, temperature and precipitation emphasis on agriculture, favored by HAZARDS AND regime. the gentle topography, generating a VULNERABILITIES share of gross domestic product Concerning the hydrogeological (GDP) above the national average settings, the calcareous origin of (5.24% in Puglia vs. 2.65% in Italy), Puglia’s bedrocks have given rise and driven principally by wine, olive to karstic phenomena which have oil and wheat production. Puglia also limited the development of a heavily relies on the touristic sector, superficial river network, except for which is a growing economic The territory of Puglia (Figure 3.1) the northern area; endorheic basins resource (OECD 2011). An always has an area of about 19,345 km2and are numerous and the underground less role is played by industry, consists of a long and narrow region, water circulation, one of the main except for the food industry that bordered by two seas, the Ionian water sources for the region, is well- emphasizes the importance of and Adriatic, with the longest developed. agriculture complemented by fishing. coastline among Italian regions Time series of observations from (865 km); Puglia is also the least In terms of land use/cover, more meteorological stations in Puglia mountainous region in Italy being than 82% of Puglia’s surface show trends towards warmer and mostly occupied by plains and hills. comprises agro-ecosystems, with marginally drier conditions during about 7% of natural vegetation and the second half of the 20thCentury. Information extracted from the 7% of mixed territories, while urban Combined trends of increasing Regional Water Protection Master areas cover the remaining 4% evapotranspiration and decreasing Plan (WPMP; SOGESID 2009) (Zaccarelli et al. 2008). precipitation implied a progressively suggests that mean annual air From a socio-economic point of larger water deficit (Hemming et al. temperature ranges from 10°C to view, since the early 2000s the Figure 3.1- Map showing location and topography of Puglia. 4 2013). While climate model suggest that wine and oil production for agricultural production and projections suggest warmer and could be impacted in a negative way domestic uses; iv) the standards drier conditions also over the next by the drier and hotter conditions required (e.g. minimum few decades (Goodess et al. 2013), expected to characterize Puglia in environmental flow) to maintain the a further increase in the water deficit the first half of 21stCentury (Reale et ecological function of water in rivers would not be sustainable and would al. 2011). Other results (Mereu et al. and/or lakes. Population growth have a large negative impact on 2008; Ponti et al. 2014) suggest that (recently mainly caused by human and agricultural sectors, and oil production could be favored by immigration) and tourism on the environment. new climate regimes, as high (EUROIDEES 2013) worsen this temperatures are optimal for growth situation increasing the region’s One of the major vulnerabilities of and development of olives, giving overall vulnerability because of Puglia relating to climate change a higher yield and therefore greater decreasing water availability and regards the use of water resources, profit. However, a new climate increasing water demand particularly whose share is about 54% for regime could also change the during summer. agriculture, 36% for domestic use suitability of lands (Ferrise et al. 2013; and 10% for industry. Puglia is Moriondo et al. 2013) and the crop In this context, the increasing human already forced to import water from exposure to new invasive pests presence and activity in Puglia’s nearby regions (up to 50% of the (Ponti et al. 2014). coastal areas makes them vulnerable resource is traded in, with domestic to the occurrence of events of great use reaching 75%; SOGESID 2009) Regarding extreme events, recently impact and low frequency (e.g. and to extract water from aquifers Puglia region was alternatively extreme storm surge and tsunami for irrigating crops because of the affected by out-of-normal climatic tidal waves) (Mastronuzzi and seasonal nature of many rivers. years, e.g. droughts in 2011-2012, Sansò 2012). Moreover, the state floods in 2013-2014 and fast of the coast is seriously affected by Overexploitation of groundwater fluctuations of droughts/floods in modifications due to erosion (Fiore from private wells is already an issue 2008-2009, that caused pollution in et al. 2010): 65% of coasts are at regional scale, since a regulation the Occhito reservoir (WHO 2011). undergoing erosion processes plan for groundwater exploitation This climate variability under (Antonioli and Silenzi 2007). is missing, leading to depletion of opposite extremes endangers: underground water bodies in i) the availability of (sub)surface Finally, long parts of the coasts and quantity but even in quality water and soil moisture to offset the especially the Salento peninsula are especially favoring sea water evapotranspiration demand from also vulnerable to relative sea level intrusion (Polemio et al. 2007; crops not fully satisfied by rain; ii) rise (Sansò and Mastronuzzi 2013; Piccinni et al. 2008). the temporal reliability of water yield Antonioli and Leoni 2007), increasing from existing infrastructures for the coastal vulnerability to salt water Concerning agriculture, results from water accumulation/diversion intrusion being already a the EU FP6 funded CIRCE project (single and multipurpose dams); iii) widespread problem in Puglia (http://www.circeproject.eu/) the quality of water to be provided (Polemio et al. 2010). 5 3.2STATUS OF CLIMATE overall institutional coordination, financial needs and the identification ADAPTATION INITIATIVES through the involvement of regional of funding sources. Currently, IN PUGLIA and local authorities dealing with ten Italian Regional Governments planning and management of coastal adopted their LAP, comprising Puglia areas. Some Italian regional in 2008. governments have started approaching the ICZM to different In this context, and under the extents: Puglia activated preliminary guidance of the National Committee testing of the ICZM approach or to Combat Desertification, IMELS plans for land protection and spatial promoted a number of Pilot projects planning and, in 2012, the region to combat desertification that go signed the agreement, known as beyond the LAPs. In fact, they “Bologna Charter 2012”, to promote are extended toward the use of a common framework among experimental techniques and European regions, for strategic methods (e.g. use of indicators for actions aimed at the protection environmental monitoring, mapping and sustainable development of boundary of areas sensitive/at risk coastal areas. of desertification from different processes) for actions aimed at As far as hydraulic risk is concerned, improving knowledge and directly In July 2014, the Italian government Puglia region has started the process intervening in the territory. To date, concluded the elaboration of a of implementation of the Flood six Italian Regional Governments National Adaptation Strategy (NAS), Directive (2007/60/EC) by carried out such pilot projects, with accepted by the State-Region providing a first release of regional Puglia starting in 2008. Conference in October 2014, and flood hazard and risk maps in 2013. whose completion was supported According to the directive, flood risk Further initiatives aimed at protecting by the establishment of a technical, assessments should also consider the soil and restoring its stability have scientific and legal expert panel and impacts of climate change on the been and will be included by involving stakeholders early occurrence of floods. Accordingly, respectively in the 2007-2013 and on in the process. next steps will be the evaluation of 2014-2020, Rural Development Plans. climate scenarios and of their Puglia’s initiatives in particular will A National Adaptation Plan (NAP) influence in the frequency and entail: improving soil quality and is still missing, while regional to local intensity of floods and finally reducing the organic content loss; adaptation strategies and plans are in the assessment of risks. renewable energy production plants rare. Some adaptation initiatives from biomass and other renewable have already been implemented in As requested by the United Nation sources; water resources the context of the existing policies Convention on Combating management and water saving for environmental protection, natural Desertification (UNCCD), Italy technologies. hazards prevention, sustainable developed and approved the management of natural and water National Action Programme to The projected increase of drought resources and of coastal areas, fight Combat Drought and Desertification. frequency and water scarcity, against desertification and health To support achievement of its goals, especially localized in Southern Italy, protection. Those initiatives can be the Regional Governments and River are of particular interest for the local found at national and sub-national Basin Authorities were delegated policy agenda. Such issues are scale in some cases responding to with the responsibility to accordingly driving the development of suitable EU Directives’ requirements or develop Local Action Programmes responses in combination with the international agreements. (LAPs), aimed at: identifying specific other components of EU water regional areas sensitive and/or at risk regulation. Implemented initiatives While at the national level Italy of desertification through the include the establishment of ad hoc is required to prepare a strategy application of a methodology organizations for crisis management on Integrated Coastal Zone supported by an appropriate set in order to regulate the use of water Management (ICZM), including of indicators at the regional scale; and take the necessary measures to prevention and/or reduction of the define specific action plans for the prevent water crises, like effects of natural hazards and of prevention, mitigation and a “Coordination Unit climate change, the Italian Ministry adaptation to drought and for the management of water for the Environment Land and Sea desertification; and provide resources” shared between Puglia (IMELS) has already started an guidance for quantification of the and Basilicata Regions. 6 Methodology The spatial domain of the Pilot Study and water demand, this leads to was outlined to cover from the a fourth dimension known as socio- description inland to the coastal territory of economic drought, which occurs Puglia and its contiguous areas that when water supply is not sufficient contribute to water provision to the to meet human needs and causes region. At temporal level, a baseline a decrease in the provision of goods reference period (from 1976 to and services. 2005) and two future periods in the The overall methodology for Pilot medium term (from 2021 to 2050) As far as coastal areas are Study 3 was designed and and long term (from 2041 to 2070) concerned, Mediterranean conducted through a were considered. In each future simulations of sea level rise along comprehensive integrated approach period the exemplification of a Puglia’s coasts were combined with connecting data, models, possible range of future conditions topographic and land use layers to downscaling procedures, spatial was allowed thanks to updated and investigate the risks that could arise analysis techniques, decision high resolution climate and impact from the permanent submersion of support tools and indicators, into projections under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 productive or significant areas (for a chain of activities ranging from emission scenarios. The RCP4.5 is a tourism, agriculture, transports, hazard quantification (at process stabilization scenario where total industry) with consequent losses of level: climate and hydrology) to radiative forcing is stabilized shortly land and related economic revenues. vulnerability and risk assessment after 2100 to 4.5 W m2 (at resource/sector level: water, (approximately 650 ppm CO Here we present a brief description 2 agriculture and coasts). Links among equivalent) by employing of the main modules of the these components are strongly technologies and strategies to integrated approach, to provide based on the use of indicators, reduce greenhouse gas emissions. a quick overview of the aimed at synthetizing complex The RCP8.5 is a business as usual methodologies and tools applied in scientific information into quantities scenario and characterized by the case study. More details about easy understandable and increasing greenhouse gas emissions the methodologies applied for the communicable to stakeholders and and high greenhouse gas assessment of climate change and its policy makers (Martinez et al. 2012). concentration levels, and impacts on water resources, To effectively promote the representing a rising radiating forcing agriculture and coastal zones are integration of knowledge into pathway leading to 8.5 W m2in 2100 reported in Annex A.1, A.2, A.3 and decision making, indicators have (approximately 1370 ppm CO A.4, while the list of used indicators 2 been grouped into hazard, equivalent). and indices is reported in Annex A.5. exposure, vulnerability and risk categories3, in order to classify the Concerning water resources, information to be used and guide in attention was paid to the identifying priorities for regulations investigation of the complex and investments. interactions between water and 3According to IPCC (2014): Hazard is the potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical drought in its main dimensions: a) event or trend or physical impact that may cause The overall integrated approach can meteorological, defined by the loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, be articulated into five main modules degree of dryness (in terms of lack livelihoods, service provision, ecosystems, and schematized in Figure 4.1. Starting of rain) compared to the average, environmental resources. In the IPCC Fifth from the main component and by the duration and the Assessment report, the term hazard refers to climate-related physical events or trends or their represented by climate modeling, frequency of the dry periods; b) physical impacts; Exposure is the presence of providing simulations about current agricultural, where meteorological people, livelihoods, species or ecosystems, and future atmosphere and ocean drought reflects into drop of soil environmental functions, services, and resources, infrastructure, or economic, social, or cultural regime for the Puglia Region moisture leading to negative impacts assets in places and settings that could be (Modules 1 and 2), the risk especially for rainfed agriculture; and adversely affected; Vulnerability is the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. assessment is performed considering c) hydrological, when precipitation Vulnerability encompasses a variety of concepts drought hazards, scenarios (both for shortfalls affect surface or and elements including sensitivity or susceptibility the agro-meteorological and subsurface water bodies, impacting to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt; Risk is the potential for consequences where hydrological component) (Module domestic, industrial and ecological something of value is at stake and where the 3) and the consequent impacts on water uses and also agriculture in its outcome is uncertain, recognizing the diversity rainfed/irrigated agriculture (Module irrigated component. Such drought of values. Risk is often represented as probability of occurrence of hazardous events or trends 4), as well as quantifying the dimensions can both be triggered in multiplied by the impacts if these events or trends potential consequences of rising sea cascade and exist simultaneously, occur. Risk results from the interaction of vulnerability, exposure, and hazard. In this report, levels on low-lying coastal areas and since their impacts are a the term risk is used primarily to refer to the risks (Module 5). complex mixture of water availability of climate-change impacts. 8