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Reconstruction Under Fire Unifying Civil and Military Counterinsurgency David C. Gompert, Terrence K. Kelly, Brooke Stearns Lawson, Michelle Parker, Kimberly Colloton Sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense Approved for public release; distribution unlimited NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE The research described in this report was prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). The research was conducted in the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the OSD, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community under Contract W74V8H-06-C-0002. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. 978-0-8330-4705-2 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R ® is a registered trademark. AP Photo/Edward G. Martens © Copyright 2009 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/permissions.html). Published 2009 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface It is widely agreed that effective civilian relief, reconstruction, and development work can help convince people to support their govern- ment against insurgency. Knowing this, insurgents will target such work, threatening both those who perform it and those who benefit from it. Too often, the result is a postponement of efforts to improve government and serve the population until contested territory has been cleared of insurgents. This can lead to excessive reliance on force to defeat insurgents—at best, delaying and, at worst, preventing success. Unsatisfied with this general state of affairs, a RAND team with combined security and development expertise set out to learn how “civilian counterinsurgency” (civil COIN) could be conducted more safely in the face of active insurgency, when it can do the most good. Thanks to a grant from the Smith Richardson Foundation, matched by support from the U.S. Department of Defense, the team has completed this inquiry and set out the results in this monograph. Its findings and recommendations should be of as much interest to practitioners, policy leaders, and scholars of civil COIN as well as to those involved in security. This research was sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combat- ant Commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. iii iv Reconstruction Under Fire: Unifying Civil and Military Counterinsurgency For more information on RAND’s International Security and Defense Policy Center, contact the Director, James Dobbins. He can be reached by email at [email protected]; by phone at 703-413- 1100, extension 5134; or by mail at the RAND Corporation, 1200 S. Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202. More information about RAND is available at www.rand.org. Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. ix Tables .............................................................................. xi Summary .........................................................................xiii Acknowledgments ............................................................ xxiii Abbreviations ................................................................... xxv ChAPTer One Introduction ....................................................................... 1 Conceptual Bearings ............................................................... 1 The Nature and Importance of Civil COIN .................................... 7 Civil COIN, Violence, and Risk ................................................12 Context .............................................................................18 Method and Organization of the Monograph .................................21 ChAPTer TwO Three Cases ...................................................................... 23 Objectives and Criteria .......................................................... 23 Nord-Kivu, DRC ................................................................ 26 Background ..................................................................... 26 Context ...........................................................................29 Threat .............................................................................31 Focus Areas ......................................................................32 Nangarhar, Afghanistan ..........................................................33 Background ......................................................................33 Context .......................................................................... 36 v vi Reconstruction Under Fire: Unifying Civil and Military Counterinsurgency Threat ............................................................................ 38 Focus Areas ......................................................................39 Al Anbar, Iraq .....................................................................41 Background ......................................................................41 Context ...........................................................................45 Threat ............................................................................ 46 Focus Areas ..................................................................... 48 Summary Observations and Analysis .......................................... 50 ChAPTer Three Integrated Analysis, Integrated Approach ..................................59 Civil-Military “Integration” ......................................................59 The Nature of Civil COIN ......................................................61 The Practicalities of Civil COIN ............................................... 68 A Network Model for Securing Civil COIN ..................................71 Co-location to Reduce and Manage Risk ......................................75 Integrating Security and Civil COIN Operations ............................79 Current Efforts to Integrate and Secure Civil COIN .........................83 Conclusion ........................................................................ 86 ChAPTer FOur Security requirements ..........................................................89 Modes of Providing Security ....................................................93 Embedded Security ............................................................ 94 Mobile Security ................................................................ 97 Quick-Reaction Forces ........................................................ 98 Information Sensing and Sharing ........................................... 100 Non-Lethal Capabilities ...................................................... 103 Investments ...................................................................... 104 Summary ......................................................................... 107 ChAPTer FIve Conclusions ..................................................................... 109 Summary of Key Findings ..................................................... 110 Recommendations .............................................................. 117 General Principles ............................................................. 117 Contents vii Further Analysis ............................................................... 118 Application and Experimentation ........................................... 118 Concluding Thoughts .......................................................... 119 About the Authors ............................................................. 121 Bibliography .................................................................... 125