COVID-19 and WORLD ORDER ABOUT THE EDITORS Hal Brands is the Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) and a scholar at the American Enter- prise Institute. A columnist for Bloomberg Opinion, he is also the author or editor of several books, including American G rand Strat- egy in the Age of Trump, Making the Unipolar Moment: U.S. Foreign Policy and the Rise of the Post– Cold War Order, and What Good Is Grand Strategy? Power and Purpose in American Statecraft from Harry S. Truman to George W. Bush. His newest book, The Lessons of Tragedy: Statecraft and World Order, was coauthored by Charles Edel. Francis J. Gavin is the Giovanni Agnelli Distinguished Professor and the inaugural director of the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). Gavin is also the chairman of the Board of Editors of Texas National Security Review. He is the au- thor of Gold, Dollars, and Power: The Politics of International Mon- etary Relations, 1958–1971 and Nuclear Statecraft: History and Strat- egy in Amer i ca’s Atomic Age. His latest book, Nuclear Weapons and American G rand Strategy, was published in 2020. COVID-19 A N D WORLD ORDER THE FUTURE OF CONFLICT, COMPETITION, AND COOPERATION edited by Hal Brands | Francis J. Gavin Johns Hopkins University Press Baltimore In collaboration with and appreciation of the book’s coeditors, Professors Hal Brands and Francis J. Gavin of the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs at Johns Hopkins SAIS, Johns Hopkins University Press is pleased to donate funds to the Maryland Food Bank, in support of the university’s food distribution efforts in East Baltimore during this period of food insecurity because of COVID-19 pandemic hardships. © 2020 Johns Hopkins University Press Chapter 23 © Niall Ferguson 2020 All rights reserved. Published 2020 Printed in the United States of Amer i ca on acid- free paper 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Johns Hopkins University Press 2715 North Charles Street Baltimore, Mary land 21218-4363 www. p ress. j hu. e du Library of Congress Control Number: 2020942747 A cata log rec ord for this book is available from the British Library. The Open Access edition of this book is licensed u nder a Creative Commons Attribution- NonCommercial- NoDerivatives 4.0 International License: https:// creativecommons . org / licenses / by - nc - nd / 4 . 0 / . CC BY- NC- ND ISBN-13: 978-1-4214-4075-0 (open access) ISBN-13: 978-1-4214-4073-6 (pbk. : alk. paper) ISBN-13: 978-1-4214-4074-3 (electronic) Special discounts are available for bulk purchases of this book. For more information, please contact Special Sales at specialsales@press . jhu . edu. Johns Hopkins University Press uses environmentally friendly book materials, including recycled text paper that is composed of at least 30 percent post- consumer waste, whenever pos si ble. Contents Foreword, by Ronald J. Daniels ix Acknowl edgments xiii COVID-19 and World Order 1 Hal Brands and Francis J. Gavin part i: Applied History and Future Scenarios 1 Ends of Epidemics 23 Jeremy A. Greene and Dora Vargha 2 The World a fter COVID: A Perspective from History 40 Margaret MacMillan 3 Future Scenarios: “We are all failed states, now” 56 Philip Bobbitt part ii: Global Public Health and Mitigation Strategies 4 Make Pandemics Lose Their Power 75 Tom Inglesby 5 Origins of the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Path Forward: A Global Public Health Policy Perspective 93 Lainie Rutkow 6 Bioethics in a Post- COVID World: Time for Future- Facing Global Health Ethics 114 Jeffrey P. Kahn, Anna C. Mastroianni, and Sridhar Venkatapuram vi Contents part iii: Transnational Issues: Technology, Climate, and Food 7 Global Climate and Energy Policy a fter the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Tug- of- War between Markets and Politics 135 Johannes Urpelainen 8 No Food Security, No World Order 148 Jessica Fanzo 9 Flat No Longer: Technology in the Post- COVID World 169 Christine Fox and Thayer Scott part iv: The Future of the Global Economy 10 Models for a Post- COVID US Foreign Economic Policy 191 Benn Steil 11 Prospects for the United States’ Post- COVID-19 Policies: Strengthening the G20 Leaders Pro cess 204 John Lipsky part v: Global Politics and Governance 12 When the World Stumbled: COVID-19 and the Failure of the International System 223 Anne Applebaum 13 Public Governance and Global Politics a fter COVID-19 238 Henry Farrell and Hahrie Han 14 Take It Off- Site: World Order and International Institutions after COVID-19 259 Janice Gross Stein 15 A “Good Enough” World Order: A Gardener’s Manual 277 James B. Steinberg Contents vii part vi: Grand Strategy and American Statecraft 16 Maybe It Won’t Be So Bad: A Modestly Optimistic Take on COVID and World Order 297 Hal Brands, Peter Feaver, and William Inboden 17 COVID-19’s Impact on Great- Power Competition 316 Thomas Wright 18 Building a More Globalized Order 331 Kori Schake 19 Could the Pandemic Reshape World Order, American Security, and National Defense? 348 Kathleen H. Hicks part vii: Sino- American Rivalry 20 The United States, China, and the Great Values Game 369 Elizabeth Economy 21 The US- China Relationship after Coronavirus: Clues from History 388 Graham Allison 22 Building a New Technological Relationship and Rivalry: US- China Relations in the Aftermath of COVID 406 Eric Schmidt 23 From COVID War to Cold War: The New Three- Body Prob lem 419 Niall Ferguson Index 439 This page intentionally left blank Foreword In the heart of Frankfurt, Germany, stands the IG Farben building. Completed in 1930, this massive and seemingly indestructible triumph of modernist design was named for its first owners, the IG Farben Com pany, at the time Germany’s larg- est chemical conglomerate. Within the de cade, IG Farben became deeply entan- gled with the Nazis and was eventually complicit in many of the worst atrocities of Hitler’s Germany, including the manufacture of the notorious Zyklon B gas used in concentration camps. Following the Allied invasion of Frankfurt in March 1945, the building was evacuated and the corporation’s executives arrested. When General Dwight D. Eisenhower touched ground and saw that the IG Farben headquarters was one of the few structures in the city to have survived the assault, he de cided to make it the center for Allied operations. From his office on the first floor, he not only oversaw the end of the war but also began the meticulous task of rebuilding democracy in Germany out of the ashes of violent dictatorship—an endeavor that, in turn, seeded the ground for a new liberal world order to emerge. Today, the Farben building exemplifies the very best of that world. A part of the Goethe University in Frankfurt, it serves as the entry point to the university’s sprawling, modern campus. No longer merely a monument to h uman evil, it is a portal to f ree inquiry, vigorous debate, and the exchange of ideas that allow global society to thrive, and—in times like ours—to survive. The story of the Farben building serves as a meta phor for the trajectory of our world over the past century, embodying the victory over brutal fascism and geno- cide; the construction of an international system committed to creating a more just, peaceful, and prosperous world; and the difficult, ongoing work of sustain- ing that proj ect through institutions that forge partnerships and lay the founda- tion to address global society’s most daunting prob lems. Yet, as observers and scholars have carefully documented, that order is frac- turing. Soaring economic in equality and rapid demographic change have fueled populist resentment, ethno- nationalism, and a sweeping distrust in national and