Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Challenge and response: anticipating US military security concerns / Karl P. Magyar, editor-in-chief; associate editors, Maris McCrabb, Albert Mitchum, Lewis B. Ware. 443p. Includes bibliographical references. 1. Military planning-United States. 2. National Security- United States. 3. World politics-1989-I. Magyar. K. P. (Karl P.) U153.C49 1994 355'.033073-dc20 94-18448 CIP ISBN: 1-58566-053-1 First Printing August 1994 Second Printing April 1999 Third Printing March 2001 Digitize Copy from Third Printing November 2002 NOTE: Pagination changed DISCLAIMER This publication was produced in the Department of Defense school environment in the interest of academic freedom and the advancement of national defense-related concepts. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the United States government. This publication has been reviewed by security and policy review authorities and is cleared for public release. ii Contents Page DISCLAIMER .................................................................... ii PREFACE.......................................................................... ix INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW The Emerging Post-Cold-War International Order and Changing Conflict Environment.........................3 PART I THE CHALLENGE Regional Study 1 Conflict and Confrontation in the Post-Cold-War Middle East........................................43 Regional Study 2 Security Issues in the Former Warsaw Pact Region..........................................................65 Arms Control and Proliferation .........................................91 The Changing Nature of Alliances ..................................117 The Military's Changing Sociological Concerns .............141 US National Security Strategy.........................................159 Conquest and Cohesion The Psychological Nature of War ..................................................................195 PART II THE RESPONSE The Diplomacy of Regional Conflict Management.....................................................................221 Forecasting Military Technological Needs......................239 Constituting US Military Manpower Needs ....................253 v Military Responses in Nonpolitical Conflicts..................267 Supporting United Nations and Regional Peacekeeping Efforts .......................................................293 Parallel Warfare Its Nature and Application....................313 Parallel Warfare Anticipating the Enemy’s Response..........................................................................335 Air Theory for the Twenty-first Century ........................351 Waging Wars with Nonlethal Weapons..........................377 Economic Warfare Targeting Financial Systems As Centers of Gravity ......................................................391 Changing Status of Nuclear Forces..................................411 Developing Space Assets.................................................443 Conflict Termination Every War Must End.....................465 CONTRIBUTORS...........................................................483 vi Preface The formal dissolution of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact and the coalition war to oust Iraq from Kuwait occurred within months of each other. These events were of great significance to Western statesmen and strategic planners who recognized that a fundamental transformation of the international system was taking place. The decline of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact as a cohesive unit raises the most fundamental question for the military planner: Who will be the likely enemies in the future for which they must prepare? This was not a dilemma during the cold war as all conflicts in the world were evaluated within the prevailing East- West context. Having assessed the challenges posed by the enemy's capabilities, military planners worked on the assumption of the existence of a hierarchy of responses that could be used as required, with a massive strategic nuclear attack being reserved for the belligerent members of the Warsaw Pact-if necessary. Such a response is not envisioned for any conceivable enemy today. The 1991 Gulf War, however, affirmed very early the prevalence of war outside the cold war context and that military responses to future conflicts will have to be formulated in a wide sub-nuclear range. The United States-led coalition's response to Iraq's initiatives did just that. New weapon systems, supporting equipment, strategies, and tactics were implemented in the defeat of Iraq's armed forces. Influencing the prosecution and management of that war was the absence of the Soviet Union as a balancing variable. The lessons learned from that encounter will certainly influence future engagements-but against whom is not clear. The authors of this volume agree on one point: That conflicts will continue in the future and that the US will perhaps find it in its interest to become an active participant in some wars. This volume ix attempts to bring together thoughts about the environmental context in which such, wars will take place and about possible US military reactions. The Introduction and Overview offers a broad review of the major determinants of international change. Part I follows with a current review of two regions, the Middle East and the area covered by the former Warsaw Pact, whose conflicts have the greater potential of expansion and negative consequence to the US and to our traditional allies than those conflicts in any other region. No attempt is made to systematically review other regions where conflict is not as globally threatening. This section also offers insight into other factors that portray the global conflict environment, war, changing US military concerns and US security perceptions. Together, these essays address what we perceive as the “Challenge.” Part II ranges over some specific security situations, the changing nature of warfare, and some anticipated avenues of responding to the emerging challenges, Conflicts and wars may be resolved by more than only violent means, and these are considered within the context of diplomatic or collective efforts. Responses to nonpolitical conflicts those in which the defeat of a regime or an insurgent force is not an objective-are examined. Peacekeeping operations, which have recently placed great demands on the US, are investigated. The new technological capabilities are reviewed. Air power, parallel warfare, and war termination theory are presented, And the utility of nuclear forces as well as space assets are updated. These topics and others address the “Response,” The authors of this volume are all affiliated with the US Air Force Air Command and Staff College at Air University. Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama. The book is to comprise one of the texts for our students, but it is expected that it will generate a wider interest among military and civilian audiences. The editors have not imposed methodological restrictions and indeed, we have x encouraged a diversity of opinions but within an academic context, Our own immediate challenge was to produce this wide-ranging review under great 'time constraints in order to make a very up-to- date volume available to those contemplating future US military security concerns. It is important to stress that we all write in our personal capacities and that no portion of this volume necessarily reflects the official view of the US Air Force or any US government agency. We, the editors, wish to thank the authors for their timely response to our request for quality work under severe time constraints. At the Air University Press, we wish to thank Dr Elizabeth Bradley, director; Ms Debbie Banker; Ms Joan Hickey; Ms Linda Colson; Mr. Steve Garst; and our editors, Mr. Hugh Richardson and Dr Glenn Morton, for responding to the challenge of producing this volume on such notice. Karl P. Magyar, PhD xi INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW