Central Corridor Passenger Rail Feasibility Study Prepared for Massachusetts Department of Transportation June 2017 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Central Corridor Line Passenger Rail Feasibility Study (Study) examines the implementation and operation of an intercity passenger rail service along the Central Corridor (CC). The CC Line connects the cities of Brattleboro, Vermont to New London, Connecticut via the New England Central Railroad (NECR) Palmer Division line south. Initially, a profile of the corridor was assembled using data from partner railroads and agencies. Speed profiles and timing was developed to understand the journey length for the trip from Brattleboro to New London. Additionally, ten initial station stops were considered for analysis: • Brattleboro, Vermont (existing Amtrak Station); • Millers Falls, Massachusetts; • Amherst, Massachusetts (historic station site); • Palmer, Massachusetts (historic station site); • Stafford Springs, Connecticut; • Mansfield/Storrs, Connecticut; • Willimantic, Connecticut; • Norwich, Connecticut; • Mohegan Sun, Connecticut, and • New London, Connecticut (existing Amtrak Station). Notable locations that would be served by this line include two state universities, 11 smaller colleges, the Mohegan Sun Resort and Casino, commuters between Willimantic, Norwich, and New London, and regional travelers. Three scenarios were developed to understand the full range of potential ridership on the CC utilizing one, two, or three trainsets. One trainset would provide two round trips on the CC daily, while two trainsets would provide peak hour and off peak service, and three trainsets would provide nearly hourly service on the CC. Ridership forecasts for the CC were estimated by developing and applying a direct demand model. The direct demand modeling approach measures rail ridership at the station level and relationship to key independent variables that are known to influence ridership, including population density, employment density, number of trains operating daily, and other level-of­ service parameters. Direct demand regression models have several advantages including quick turnaround time in model outputs, the ability to test the sensitivity of independent variables, and relatively short time needed for model estimation. The direct demand model developed for the CC was also tested on the New Haven-Springfield rail corridor to determine its accuracy and produced results consistent with existing rail ridership in that corridor. The model results indicate that the daily rail ridership in the CC in the year 2020 would be between 385 and 405 riders depending on the level of service provided. 2020 was used as the baseline year to measure ridership to provide a near term baseline year for ridership estimation. The sensitivity of ridership with respect to the number of trains running in the corridor is modest, which is typical for intercity passenger rail services in rural areas. Central Corridor Line Passenger Rail Feasibility Study i June 2017 Total capital costs for the CC were estimated to be $376.5 million, inclusive of right-of-way upgrades, station construction and rehabilitation, and purchase of new trainsets. While the CC is an active freight line, significant rehabilitation of the right-of-way would improve speed and reliability, and provide for active passenger rail service along with the construction of stations that meet federal and industry standards. The major infrastructure components include track, grade crossings, bridges, signals, and station improvements and constructions. Capital costs for the CC were estimated based on similar costs developed for rehabilitation of the Massachusetts Department of Transportation’s (MassDOT) Knowledge Corridor-Restore the Vermonter project since the rehabilitation of the CC was assumed to involve similar work. However, a detailed inspection and refinement of the cost estimate would need to occur as part of any subsequent project evaluation. Additionally, annual operating and maintenance costs are expected to be approximately $6 million, based on existing operating and maintenance costs for Amtrak services in New England and assuming utilization of a single trainset for one daily roundtrip. According to figures developed for the Northern New England Intercity Rail Initiative (NNEIRI) project, each new trainsets would cost approximately $27 million to purchase. For this new service, six passenger cars and a locomotive would be required. For the purposes of this report, it was assumed that new rolling stock would be required and is therefore included in the capital cost. The analysis conducted as part of the study process concluded that the anticipated ridership was limited (400 riders per day). This reflects the low population density along the corridor and minimal expected interaction between the special generators. The projected capital cost of the proposed service is approximately $376.5 million, with an annual operating and maintenance cost of $6 million. The service would only intersect in New London the Preferred Alternative of the Northeast Corridor (NEC) as identified in the Tier 1 Final EIS of the Federal Railroad Administration’s (FRA) NEC Future, a comprehensive planning effort to define, evaluate, and prioritize future rail investments along the Northeast Corridor between Boston and Washington, DC. The respective state agencies and departments should continue to evaluate public support relative to furtherance of the service and include it in any statewide passenger and freight rail planning efforts in order to prioritize passenger rail service along the Central Corridor Line relative to other competing rail needs. Additionally, if any elements of passenger rail service along the Central Corridor Line should move forward, they would need to be evaluated as part of each state’s capital investment planning and project selection processes in order to be scored and ranked relative to other capital rail projects. Central Corridor Line Passenger Rail Feasibility Study ii June 2017 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................... I 1. INTRODUCTION AND EXISTING CONDITIONS ................................................... 1 2. PROJECT ALIGNMENT AND SERVICE DEVELOPMENT ................................. 3 2.1 Alignment ................................................................................................................... 3 2.2 Potential Station Stops .............................................................................................. 3 2.3 Travel Times .............................................................................................................. 3 3. RIDERSHIP ANALYSIS .................................................................................................... 6 3.1 Ridership Forecasting Methodology ....................................................................... 6 3.2 Ridership Forecasts ..................................................................................................16 3.3 Summary ...................................................................................................................17 4. COSTS ................................................................................................................................... 18 4.1 Existing Infrastructure Inventory ...........................................................................18 4.2 Estimated Capital Costs ...........................................................................................20 4.3 Annual Operating and Maintenance Costs ...........................................................22 5. AGENCY AND STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT ................................................ 24 5.1 Coordination Between Agencies ............................................................................24 5.2 Stakeholder Coordination ........................................................................................24 6. SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................ 26 APPENDIX 28 Central Corridor Line Passenger Rail Feasibility Study iii June 2017 This page intentionally left blank Central Corridor Line Passenger Rail Feasibility Study iv June 2017 1. INTRODUCTION AND EXISTING CONDITIONS The Central Corridor Line Passenger Rail Feasibility Study (Study) examines the possible implementation and operation of an intercity passenger rail service along the Central Corridor (CC). The CC connects the cities of Brattleboro, Vermont to New London, Connecticut via the New England Central Railroad (NECR) Palmer Division line south. The Study focuses on infrastructure improvement concepts to maximize the use of an existing rail corridor between Brattleboro and New London. Figure 1.1 provides an overview of the location of the corridor and the general study area. Figure 1.1 Central Corridor Study Area Central Corridor Line Passenger Rail Feasibility Study 1 June 2017 The CC line is currently a freight right-of-way owned and operated by NECR, a division of Genesee & Wyoming, Inc. Currently, no passenger service operates on the CC with the exception of the segment from the Vermont/Massachusetts border to Brattleboro, VT. The Amtrak Vermonter service previously used the CC line between Palmer, MA and East Northfield, MA with a stop in Amherst, MA. However, the Vermonter was shifted to the Knowledge Corridor right-of-way in 2014 after that project was completed with Federal and state funding. The line intersects with the Knowledge Corridor in East Northfield, Massachusetts, the CSX line (on which the daily Amtrak Lake Shore Limited operates) between Boston and Springfield in Palmer, Massachusetts, and the Amtrak Northeast Corridor (NEC) in New London, Connecticut. Passenger rail service on the CSX line, as well as service to New London on the NEC, was discussed as part of the FRA’s NEC Future, a comprehensive planning effort to define, evaluate, and prioritize future rail investments along the Northeast Corridor between Boston and Washington, DC. The Preferred Alternative, selected in the Tier 1 Final EIS issued in December 2016, retains the existing Northeast Corridor route through Rhode Island and along the Connecticut shore as the primary travel corridor between Boston and New York City, with expanded service between New Haven and Springfield to serve Western Massachusetts. This Preferred Alternative does not directly impact the CC line save for connecting service in New London. Additional information on CC infrastructure and assumptions is included in Chapter 4. The corridor passes through small and mid-size cities, towns, and rural regions in Vermont, Massachusetts, and Connecticut. Special attractions along the corridor include higher education institutions, resorts and casinos, museums, and other cultural sites. Additional information on the demographic discussion of special generators in the CC region is included in Chapter 3. Central Corridor Line Passenger Rail Feasibility Study 2 June 2017 2. PROJECT ALIGNMENT AND SERVICE DEVELOPMENT This chapter discusses the alignment and layout for the CC, as well as travel times passengers may expect to see when travelling along the line. 2.1 ALIGNMENT The CC begins in Brattleboro, Vermont and follows the NECR Palmer Division line south to New London, Connecticut. The line is approximately 121 miles in length. 2.2 POTENTIAL STATION STOPS The following potential station stops were considered: • Brattleboro, Vermont (existing Amtrak Station); • Millers Falls, Massachusetts; • Amherst, Massachusetts (historic station site); • Palmer, Massachusetts (historic station site); • Stafford Springs, Connecticut; • Mansfield/Storrs, Connecticut; • Willimantic, Connecticut; • Norwich, Connecticut; • Mohegan Sun, Connecticut; and • New London, Connecticut (existing Amtrak Station). Station stops would require Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) accessible station infrastructure. The stations would also need to meet American Railway Engineering and Maintenance (AREMA), Connecticut Department of Transportation (CTDOT), Massachusetts Department of Transportation (MassDOT), and Vermont Agency of Transportation (VTrans) requirements for station design. 2.3 TRAVEL TIMES Travel times on the alignment were established using Amtrak time tables (Brattleboro to Amherst) and estimates from NECR track charts for points south. Travel times assume a two- minute dwell time at stations and one minute of recovery time. Additionally, travel times assume trains make stops at all stations and do not operate with any express or skip-stop service. Standard, non-tilt operating equipment is assumed for the purposes of travel time speeds. Travel times are profiled in Table 2.1. Central Corridor Line Passenger Rail Feasibility Study 3 June 2017 Table 2.1: Travel Time from New London to Points North Approximate Distance from Total Run Time Time from Previous City/Town New London (Miles) (H:MM) Station (H:MM) New London 0 0:00 0:00 Mohegan Sun 6 0:09 0:09 Norwich 15 0:25 0:16 Willimantic 30 0:49 0:24 Mansfield/Storrs 40 1:07 0:18 Stafford Springs 50 1:25 0:18 Palmer 64 1:50 0:25 Amherst 84 2:17 0:27 Millers Falls 99 2:38 0:21 Brattleboro 121 3:06 0:28 Travel times were derived from NECR track charts and using FRA track class regulations. Table 2.2 shows FRA track class regulations. FRA regulations establish classes of track based on maximum allowable speed. Maximum speeds in each of the options mirror FRA Track Classifications Maximum Operating Speeds for passenger rail. FRA track safety standards primarily address track geometry, infrastructure conditions, and maintenance standards.1 NECR track charts are written in terms of FRA track class regulations. Table 2.2: FRA Track Classifications The maximum The maximum Over track that meets the allowable speed for freight trains allowable speed for passenger requirements prescribed for: is: trains is: Class 1 Track 10 mph 15 mph Class 2 Track 25 mph 30 mph Class 3 Track 40 mph 60 mph Class 4 Track 60 mph 80 mph Class 5 Track 80 mph 90 mph 1 FRA Track Classification standards also contain specific requirements for higher speed operation. For operation at Class 5 or higher speeds (above 80 mph), trains must be equipped with positive train control and/or cab signal systems. A positive train control system will automatically slow or stop a train if an engineer fails to respond to a signal indication. A cab signal system duplicates signal indications on a display within the locomotive cab. Central Corridor Line Passenger Rail Feasibility Study 4 June 2017 This page intentionally left blank Central Corridor Line Passenger Rail Feasibility Study 5 June 2017