1 London Offshore Consultants Limited T (+44) 020 7264 3250 Registered in England No.1415347 F (+44) 020 7264 3251 Ibex House, 42-47 Minories, E [email protected] London EC3N 1DY W loc-group.com Assessment of ETV Provision for North and North West Scotland for Maritime and Coastguard Agency Document Reference: 005613.00/DAP/R01/LOCL 3 June 2016 London Offshore Consultants Limited Document Reference: 005613.00/DAP/R01/LOCL Assessment of ETV Provision for North and North West Scotland for Maritime and Coastguard Agency CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION 4 1.1 Engagement 4 1.2 Scope of Work 4 1.3 Structure of Study 4 1.4 Study Team 6 1.5 Acknowledgements 6 2 EMERGENCY TOWING VESSELS, CURRENT ETV STATUS, CAST & TUG AVAILABILITY IN AREA 7 2.1 The Advent of ETVs 7 2.2 Prime Purpose of ETVs 7 2.3 Brief History of ETVs in UK Territorial Waters 8 2.4 The Present ETV “AHT HERAKLES” 9 2.5 ETV Specification Requirements 10 2.6 Specified Area of Coverage for ETV 11 2.7 ETV Intervention from October 2011 to February 2016 12 2.8 The Coastguard Agreement on Salvage and Towage (CAST) 15 2.9 Available Tugs in Area under Review 15 2.10 Summary of Findings 17 3 TYPE & DENSITY OF SHIPPING TRAFFIC IN NORTH & NORTHWEST SCOTLAND 18 3.1 Preamble 18 3.2 Fair Isles 20 3.3 Hebrides and Minches 25 3.4 Observations from 2012 AIS Data 29 3.5 Projections 31 3.6 Summary of Findings 32 4 SPECIFIC HAZARDS 33 4.1 Preamble 33 4.2 Environmentally Sensitive Areas 33 4.3 General Climate 35 4.4 Sea Lanes 35 4.5 Minches and Hebrides 36 4.6 Fair Isle South (including Pentland Firth and North Scotland) 37 4.7 Fair Isle North 40 4.8 Summary of Findings 42 5 THE PREVAILING WEATHER 45 5.1 Preamble 45 5.2 The Prevailing Weather 46 5.3 Statistics since 2010 and Trends 50 5.4 Summary of Findings 50 London Offshore Consultants Limited Document Reference: 005613.00/DAP/R01/LOCL Assessment of ETV Provision for North and North West Scotland for Maritime and Coastguard Agency 6 ENVIRONMENTAL SENSITIVITIES OF COASTLINES 51 6.1 Preamble 51 6.2 Fair Isle (North) - Shetland Islands (including Fair Isle) 56 6.3 Fair Isle (South) – Orkney Islands and North Scotland 58 6.4 Hebrides & Minches 61 6.5 Summary of Findings 63 7 RISK REVIEW 65 7.1 Preamble 65 7.2 Review of the Belton Study Risk Assessment 65 7.3 Review of the Marico Report Risk Assessment 67 7.4 Relevance of the Conclusions of Previous Risk Assessments Today 69 7.5 Future Trends 70 7.6 Conclusions 71 8 BOLLARD PULL ANALYSIS AND RISK REDUCTION CONSIDERATIONS 72 8.1 Preamble 72 8.2 Calculation of Bollard Pull 72 8.3 Calculation of Vessel Coverage 74 8.4 Discussion 78 9 RECOMMENDED TYPE, SIZE AND SUITABILITY OF VESSEL FOR ETV 79 9.1 Summary of Key Factors Considered 79 9.2 Recommended Type and Size of ETV 81 9.3 Suitability of ETV 81 9.4 Flexibility in Usage 83 9.5 Crewing Requirements 84 9.6 Training Requirements 86 9.7 On-board Equipment Necessary 89 10 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 91 10.1 Conclusions 91 10.2 Recommendations 93 APPENDICES Appendix A Data sheet of AHT “HERAKLES” (Source: Marine Group) Appendix B ‘Provision of an Emergency Towing Vessel - Statement of User Requirements’ (Source: MCA) Appendix C Towage Provided in the Vicinity of the Northern and Western Isles (Source: MCA) Appendix D AIS Brief (P. Whyte MBE, AFNI, Master Mariner) London Offshore Consultants Limited Document Reference: 005613.00/DAP/R01/LOCL Assessment of ETV Provision for North and North West Scotland for Maritime and Coastguard Agency TABLES Table 1 MCA Casualty Statistics October 2011 – February 2016 (Source: MCA) Table 2 Range & Average Size of Cruise Ship Arriving in Orkney, 2016 Table 3 Summary of Vessel Lengths Operating in the Areas under Review Table 4 Areas of Wind & Wave Data Table 5 Category Thresholds & Results (Source: Marico Report Table 8, Annex A) Table 6 Wind Speed for Areas in Figure 33 Table 7 Wave Height Categories (Source: Marico Report Table 9 and Annex A) Table 8 Wave Heights in all Areas Table 9 Summary of bollard pull requirements for various vessel types Table 10 Sensitivity of bollard pull to changes in environmental conditions, relative to industry standard criteria for a Suezmax Tanker Table 11 ETV bollard pull coverage for the traffic size and type operating in the Fair Isles Table 12 ETV bollard pull coverage for the traffic size and type operating in the Minches and Hebrides FIGURES Figure 1 “ANGLIAN PRINCESS” – ETV until 2011 (Source channelimages.com) Figure 2 Location of the Four Permanent UK ETVs until 2011 (Source: MCA) Figure 3 Current ETV “HERAKLES” (Source: Marine Group Web Site) Figure 4 Map of Specified Area (Source: MCA) Figure 5 MV “NICOLA (Source: Marinetraffic.com) Figure 6 MV “NORHOLM” (Source: Vesselfinder.com) Figure 7 MV “INDUSTRIAL KENNEDY” (Source: FleetMon.com) Figure 8 MV “SKOG” (Source: Source: www.sjofartstidningen.se) Figure 9 Areas into which vessel movements are recorded Figure 10 AIS data showing the number of vessel movements in to both the Hebrides and Minches and the Fair Isles areas between 2010 and 2015 Figure 11 Trend in vessel movements in to the Fair Isles between 2010 and 2015 (2015 dataset incomplete) Figure 12 Trend in tankers using the Sullom Voe Port (Source: Shetland in Statistics) Figure 13 Vessel draught, overall length and maximum capacity for cruise ships visiting Orkney in 2016 Figure 14 Trend in cruise liner arrivals at Lerwick Harbour (Source: Lerwick Port Authority) Figure 15 Distribution of Tanker Vessel Sizes – Fair Isles Figure 16 Vessel lengths for the cargo carriers and container vessels transiting into the Fair Isles area Figure 17 Distribution of vessel lengths for the other category – Fair Isles Figure 18 Trend in vessel movements in to the Hebrides and Minches area between 2010 and 2015 Figure 19 Distribution of tankers – Hebrides and Minches Figure 20 Vessel lengths for the dry cargo carriers and container vessels transiting into the Minches and Hebrides area Figure 21 Distribution of Other Vessel Sizes – Minches and Hebrides Figure 22 AIS Data for 2012 (Source shipmap.org) Figure 23 All Vessel Types Using all Routes (Source shipmag.org) Figure 24 Tankers and Gas Carriers 2012 (Source shipmag.org) Figure 25 Operating Area and Areas to Be Avoided London Offshore Consultants Limited Document Reference: 005613.00/DAP/R01/LOCL Assessment of ETV Provision for North and North West Scotland for Maritime and Coastguard Agency Figure 26 Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Equatorial Drift (Source: Wikipedia) Figure 27 The Minches (Source: Euronav) Figure 28 Fair Isle South (Source: Euronav) Figure 29 Pentland Firth (Source: Euronav) Figure 30 Fair Isle North (Source: Euronav) Figure 31 Approaches to Sullom Voe (Source: Euronav) Figure 32 Chart Overlay of AIS Track for 2012 (Source: shipmap.org and Euronav) Figure 33 Locations of Wind and Wave Condition Measurements in SafeTrans Figure 34 Average number of gale days per month Figure 35 Histogram of wave heights for Area 1 (West Hebrides) Figure 36 Histogram of wave heights for Area 2 (East Shetland) Figure 37 Histogram of wave heights for Area 3 (North Minch) Figure 38 Histogram of Wave Heights for Area 4 (South West Orkney) Figure 39 Trend in gale days between 2010- 2015 Figure 40 Puffins on the Trennish Isles (Source: www.southernhebrides.com) Figure 41 4 MEHRAs within Area under Review + St.Kilda N&S (Source: Google Earth) Figure 42 Marine Designated Areas (Source: http://magic.defra.gov.uk) Figure 43 Noss NNR (Source: SNH Website) Figure 44 Old Man of Hoy (source: www.gofurtherscotland.co.uk) Figure 45 Monach Islands – (Source: www.hebridescruises.co.uk) Figure 46 UK Coastal regions as defined in Belton Study showing environmental priority (graded low to very high) Figure 47 Distribution of Casualty Events Classified as Marine Incidents 2011 – 2014 (Source: EMSA) Figure 48 Distances from Kirkwall within the area under review Figure 49 ETV “BALTIC” (Source: maritimejournal.com) Figure 50 Rescue Vessel “ALONSO DE CHAVES” (Source: shipspotting.com) Figure 51 Damen “AHTS 120” (Source: Damen Shipyard Group) ACRONYMS & ABBREVIATIONS AHTS Anchor Handling Tug Supply AIS Automatic Identification System ALARP As Low As Reasonably Practical ARPA Automatic Radar Plotting Aid ATBA Areas To Be Avoided BA British Admiralty BHP Brake Horse Power BP British Petroleum BTA British Tugowners Association CAST Coastguard Agreement for Salvage and Towage CCTV Closed Circuit Television CMID Common Marine Inspection Document CP Controllable Pitch DfT Department for Transport (UK) Dia Diameter DWR Deep Water Route E East ECDIS Electronic chart display and information system London Offshore Consultants Limited Document Reference: 005613.00/DAP/R01/LOCL Assessment of ETV Provision for North and North West Scotland for Maritime and Coastguard Agency ACRONYMS & ABBREVIATIONS EMSA European Maritime Safety Agency ETV Emergency Towing Vessel GPS Global Positioning System GT Gross Tonnage HIAL Highlands and Islands Airports Limited IACS International Association of Clarification Societies IMCA International Marine Contractors Association IACS International Association of Classification Societies IMO International Maritime Organisation ISM International Safety Management JNCC Joint Nature Conservation Committee Kt Knots LNG Liquefied Natural Gas LOA Length Overall LOC London Offshore Consultants LPG Liquid Petroleum Gas LRS Lloyds Register of Shipping M Metres MAIB Marine Accident Investigation Branch MARPOL Marine Pollution – The International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships MCA Maritime and Coastguard Agency MEHRA Marine Environmental High Risk Areas Mm Millimetres MMSI Maritime Mobile Service Identity MPA Marine Protected Areas MPM Mixing Parameter Method m/s Metres per Second N North NE North East Nm Nautical Miles NMPI Marine Scotland’s National Marine Planning Initiative NSA National Scenic Areas NW North West OIC Orkney Islands Council OCIMF Oil Companies International Marine Forum RPM Revolutions Per Minute SAC Special Areas of Conservation SAR Search and Rescue SE South East SNH Scottish National Heritage SOLAS Safety of Life at Sea SOTEAG Sullum Voe Oil Terminal Environmental Advisory Group SPA Special Protection Areas SSSI Sites of Special Scientific Interest STCW Standards of Training, Certification and Watchkeeping SVHA Sullum Voe Harbour Area SVT Sullum Voe Terminal London Offshore Consultants Limited Document Reference: 005613.00/DAP/R01/LOCL Assessment of ETV Provision for North and North West Scotland for Maritime and Coastguard Agency ACRONYMS & ABBREVIATIONS T Tonnes Tbp Tonnes Bollard Pull Tdwt Tonnes Deadweight TSS Traffic Separation Scheme UK United Kingdom UK EEZ United Kingdom Exclusive Economic Zone ULCS Ultra Large Container Ship VLCC Very Large Crude Carrier VTS Vessel Traffic Services W West 24/7 24 hours a day, 7 days a week London Offshore Consultants Limited Document Reference: 005613.00/DAP/R01/LOCL Assessment of ETV Provision for North and North West Scotland for Maritime and Coastguard Agency EXECUTIVE SUMMARY There is currently one emergency towing vessel (ETV) on the coast of the United Kingdom and this is stationed in Kirkwall to serve an area covering North and North West Scotland. The contract for this vessel, AHT “HERAKLES”, has been extended until September 2016 subject to an assessment on the requirement and type of ETV that might be deemed necessary going forward. London Offshore Consultants Ltd (LOC) was contracted by the Maritime and Coastguard Agency (MCA) to conduct an independent assessment for ETV provision taking into account traffic density and type, specific hazards, prevailing weather and environmental sensitivities in the area in which the current ETV operates. These factors are fundamental in determining the requirements and specification for an ETV should the decision be taken to continue with such provision. Crewing and training requirements to perform on a 24/7 basis, outfit requirements and the suitability of the vessel to perform non-emergency work were also to be considered. The assessment was to be completed as a matter of urgency and within a tight deadline. Certain data was made available, some obtained from in-house resources and some obtained from the public domain. A detailed risk assessment was not required under the present scope of work. Rather, risk assessments undertaken in previous studies and their findings are still relevant in many respects. Where possible, the data related to vessel traffic in the area under review has been used to identify areas where the shipping risk profile may have changed. The implications of future trends in the global shipping industry and in the local shipping traffic have been commented on. The assessment found the following: 1. Presently there are tugs up to 55tbp in the area under review but these are harbour tugs, none are reliably available and none are suitable for emergency towage in gale force conditions and/or can proceed at an appropriate speed and/or are manned by sufficient crew experienced in emergency towage operations. The harbour tugs can, and have been, used effectively for emergency towing in circumstances within their operational capability and subject to availability. They can and should be considered in future emergency towing plans in this respect. 2. Pentland Firth remains the most frequently navigated channel in the area and traffic can also be busy around Cape Wrath and through the Minches. The areas to be avoided (ATBA) and traffic separation lanes seem to be having their desired effects. The deep water route (DWR) west of Hebrides has a lower traffic density. The most frequent types of vessels other than fishing vessels are dry cargo ships; Aframax tankers are a common feature. Scapa Flow has had several recent visits from VLCCs and Suezmax tankers. Cruise liner visits continue to increase throughout the area. This activity had not been considered in previous studies and overall, traffic density was found to be higher than before. 3. Although positive measures have been implemented to improve the safety of navigation within the area and pollution prevention regulations have also been enhanced through MARPOL, specific hazards remain which present potential risks to shipping. Loss of control through machinery break down is the highest cause of incidents which lead to groundings, and human error is by far the prime cause of shipping incidents as a whole. Neither can be ignored. Given the features of the coastlines in the area being considered, the risk of breaching the hull of a grounded vessel is high and the impact of consequential marine pollution would be potentially devastating. 1 London Offshore Consultants Limited Document Reference: 005613.00/DAP/R01/LOCL Assessment of ETV Provision for North and North West Scotland for Maritime and Coastguard Agency 4. Weather statistics show no discernible change in trends. It is a hostile area for weather and in particular Shetland and Hebrides which are fully exposed to the north Atlantic and strong westerly winds are a high probability. Shetland and Orkney, including Fair Isle Channel and Pentland Firth, experience more frequent gales followed by Hebrides. Wave heights of 4m or more feature in these areas during adverse weather and 3m - 4m in Orkney. The Minches is sheltered by the Hebrides, hence the favoured route for shipping traffic and wave heights are usually less than 2m. There are exceptionally strong tidal flows through the Pentland Firth with currents up to 11 knots or so, and generally unpredictable and extreme weather conditions along with strong currents around the Shetland Islands. 5. The area remains the most environmentally sensitive area in the UK by a wide margin. It contains 6 Marine Environmental High Risk Areas (MEHRA) including north and south St. Kilda. There are numerous species of birds, marine mammals, fish, aquaculture and a fragile and precious ecology. The area is also famous for its scenic value, spectacular in many places. There has been a significant increase in identified marine protection areas since the Belton Study in 1995. The impact from marine pollution could have a catastrophic effect on wide stretches of coastline and also the livelihood of communities, both socially and economically. 6. A review of previous risk assessments in connection with ETVs was carried out and many of the risks concerning the area under review are the same. In particular these include environmental sensitivity to a marine pollution incident. This assessment identified a higher traffic density than previous assessments with a risk of an increasing trend of larger vessels visiting or transiting the area. The increasing cruise liner activity had not been considered previously either. Marine pollution from a laden oil tanker remains the worse-case scenario as would be expected. 7. An analysis performed for this assessment looked at the likely proportion of vessels which visit the area and might be assisted by an ETV over a range of bollard pull capacities. This was found to be a useful and simplistic way of assessing risk reduction against the range of bollard pull capacities. When associated with other risk factors, the conclusion was that an ETV with a bollard pull of about 120t would be likely to provide for a reduction in risk posed by drifting or disabled vessels into the ALARP (As Low as Reasonably Practical) range. The main recommendations from the Study Team’s assessment are summarised below: 1. The suitable ETV service can be provided by an AHTS vessel with a bollard pull of about 120t, comprehensively fitted and equipped for ocean and emergency towage operations in all weather conditions. This type of vessel also provides flexibility in usage for non-emergency work. 2. The ETV should not be confined to one particular base but have a patrolling function and be more centrally based within the area if practicable. Dedicated weather forecasting services will be an essential tool for determining patrol strategy as will close liaison with Vessel Traffic Services (VTS). 3. The ETV should be manned with master(s) and crew(s) with relevant sound experience in coastal, ocean and emergency towing. The crew complement should be at least 10. 2 London Offshore Consultants Limited Document Reference: 005613.00/DAP/R01/LOCL Assessment of ETV Provision for North and North West Scotland for Maritime and Coastguard Agency 4. Training of the ETV master and crew should be robust. Prior to joining the ETV, all personnel should attend an approved specific emergency towing course. Exercises and drills should be undertaken on a regular basis and training should be a continuous activity for ongoing improvement addressing all elements of the operations of the ETV and its functions. “Live” drills using voluntary vessels should take place at least annually, managed and coordinated by the MCA. 5. Should the ETV be tasked with non-emergency work, operational restrictions should be borne in mind and contingency plans prepared ready for implementation in the event a casualty vessel requires assistance. 3